Posted by odiousgambit
Jun 22, 2022

Oil? pffffft, that's nothing. Craps Inflation is Worse!

Just got back from the first Craps I've played since November. I knew a $15 table minimum was quite likely, but I was seriously bummed anyway when this proved to be the case. I was wondering, am I just not adjusting mentally to the new value of the dollar? 
So I checked records and found I was encountering $5 tables frequently in 2018. If the casinos just wanted to keep up with inflation, what would that be equivalent to now? Using the CPI calculator, which goes to May this year, I let it crunch the numbers and since January 2018 it gets $5 changing to $5.90 for May 2022. Adding 1%, the latest month over month figure, I get $5.96. 

I want to officially state we Craps players have a legitimate complaint when we get slammed with $15 minimums. 
I'm working on a full trip report


tuttigym Jun 22, 2022

Mr.OG, I want you to consider practicing on the WoO craps game and start out with a base Don't PL bet of $15 with a $5 Any 7 at CO. Then go from that. If the point is 4,5,9, or 10 place two to three times odds plus a 2 point Molley. See how the "table plays" for a few hands much like for real and make your adjustments or do whatever other options you normally play. But PRACTICE as if it was real. If you have Wincraps, practice on it. When you do it enough, you will be comfortable with the play and can make it work for real. Obviously, you are not going to win every hand, but the practice plus adjustments on the fly will create an easier transition and less stress.


odiousgambit Jun 22, 2022

"... consider practicing on the WoO craps game... If you have Wincraps, practice on it"

Mr. T-Gym, these are old things to try to me, but thanks

"... start out with a base Don't PL bet of $15 with a $5 Any 7 at CO".

my complaint about hedging is that it is a natural thing to come to mind when bothered by variance, but the worst way to reduce it

" .... If the point is 4,5,9, or 10 place two to three times odds plus a 2 point Molley."

well I can see you don't like my idea of keeping total action to about the same as I had it going when we had $5 tables we could use

tuttigym Jun 22, 2022

The $5 tables may be gone forever. I personally do not understand "variance," so it has no impact on my approach to the game. Hedging, for me, helps manage my bankroll, gives me wins, that while they are net lower than straight out, allow me to play longer and feel positive.

The first thing I figured out about playing any game was that there was no way I was going to win all those stacks of chips in front of the dealers, so I set my goals for short term smaller profits and hopefully stringing them together.

The great thing about craps is that it allows for a variety of approaches and strategies. I really like that.


ahiromu Jun 22, 2022

There really should be a different minimum calculation for craps, e.g. non-odds exposure instead of per bet. $100 min exposure would better than $15 minimum pass line, for me at least.

odiousgambit Jun 22, 2022

"The great thing about craps is that it allows for a variety of approaches and strategies. I really like that." agreed T-Gym.

Ahiromu, good to hear from you, I remember we used to converse some. Took me a moment to get what you were saying. Yes, for most players I think your idea would be better for them. Most seem to have much more than than the minimum bet bet laid out every time they get a chance, without much on the odds.

Posted by odiousgambit
Jun 10, 2022

6x Craps

My next Craps venture may offer 20x free odds. I don't know what the table minimum will be, but I think anymore when the free odds are jacked like that, the strategy of taking advantage of them but limiting Total Action is the way to go. It's the 'new me' ... I used to bet the Come the instant I got a little bored. Now the odds need to bring the excitement, and be the way to press as well. As it will be a gradual progression starting with 6x, if I ever get to 20x I can tell you I expect to come back with quite the trip report! 

I've been crunching some numbers for 6x odds to see what to expect. 

Tuttigym, I know you sometimes follow my blog so I've been thinking about you on this. You'll be happy to know the EV by itself I will regard as almost meaningless. But stay tuned. 

If it's a $10 table and I do my usual for a session, it'll be about 2 hrs. 
2 hrs with no come betting will be @60 bets, for a total of $600 in line bets. 
Yep the expected value, the EV, for that is -8.40 dollars. 

If it's a $15 table, being dissatisfied with that I plan to bet the Come only. That will limit my action by having to wait when someone goes on a string of Passline outcomes without setting a point. I am guessing that will limit my betting to about 55 bets or so for two hours.*

By the same process, the line bets for 55 should set an EV of $11.55

The TuttiG-like comment for that is that these numbers don't tell me much. 
Now the next step is what I've tried to get Tuttigym to investigate: standard deviation. Admittedly when first examining that I found it quite intimidating. However, I later found out the hard part has already been done for us and we can use the formula: "The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet ... and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session " [quoting the Wizard]

Since I am just predicting what I'll do when I get there, I'll use a lot of approximation. Much of this can be done in your head. 

In the first instance, looking at 60 bets, which is a guess, why not say 64 bets; the square root= 8 
the standard deviation for odds is approximately 1+ those odds. For 6x I'll use 7 . The SD for one bet is about 1.

8*7=56, @ 60
@60 * 3 standard deviations = @180 
180 * $10 = $1800 +/-8   

3 stand deviations tell me I shouldn't win or lose as much as that, or let's say $2000 [win or lose]. 


$15-min table bets . I hope to be in a mindset of limiting my action. 
instead of 55, let's say 49; sqrt 49 bets = 7 
7*7=49... 3 deviations = @150
150 * $15 = @ $2300 +/-11 or so

The nature of standard deviation is an admission of inexactness, and at least for this game at these free odds, it confirms the EV calculation doesn't mean much. 2 SDs instead of 3 tell you a range you'll wind up at most of the time, @ two-thirds of the time . I like to use 3 SDs to get me to @99% of the time. It tells me how much to bring and let's me assess if I can afford to lose that much if I have bad luck [though that kind of luck usually chases me from the table early of course]. I can afford it, but also do take heart that it's not going to be like that all the time. My experience with it has validated it for me too. 

So clearly I had you in mind Tuttigym as I was doing this.  

Link: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

*I can't do the math for figuring this out exactly. My guess is that it has only a small effect


tuttigym Jun 10, 2022

Mr. OG, I am so very flattered of the mention. Your math calculations, because I am deficient, have my head swimming. Your odds bet(s) at 6X will start at $90 ($15 table) which could produce great or disastrous results especially since most hands last only 4-6 rolls on average. By limiting the number of wagers per hand, you can allow for a disciplined overall approach.

I am not sure this strategy will be in your "comfort zone" as the "don't" side of your play has been your preferred direction.

Tell me if I am reading this correctly: $10 table PL bets only with no odds or 6X odds and no other bets during the hands? So, a $15 table no PL bets only come bets + 6X odds? How many numbers per hand or per point until resolved?

I know you have the discipline and focus to accommodate these strategies, but will boredom set in?

Or am I misreading this whole approach, which is entirely possible.


100xOdds Jun 10, 2022

~15yrs ago in Tunica, there was a casino with .25 min and 20x odds.

surprisingly, i was the only person at the table maxxing odds.

cheaper than Vegas at $2min and maxxing 3/4/5x odds.

and got a $60 food voucher for their steak restaurant for playing 4 hrs playing with a $100 buy-in.

(dont remember if i was up or not but who cares with a $60 food voucher.)

I think that casino was swept away in a hurricane a few years later :(

odiousgambit Jun 11, 2022

100x, you couldn't find a better example of how people just don't get it when it comes to free odds than your Mississippi one

Tutti-G, boredom could strike. It's a problem. Playing Craps has this problem, it offers a great deal HE wise, but ...

As for playing the darkside, I plan to do that, but didn't want to make that what the post was about. It has some advantages if you are wanting to limit how much you have in action, since you avoid getting caught up in rightside excitement. Also, I keep an eye out for Darkside players who give up action on points-set 6 or 8; it helps if they see you are also already a Darksider.* Second problem is not enough players at the table so you wind up having to shoot darkside yourself. I hate that.

* Having said that, it's a frustrating venture for the most part, as that type of person tends to be hard to connect to when you do find them. Yet it is the only way to play craps in a +EV way outside of working comps, so I don't give up on it.

tuttigym Jun 11, 2022

Mr. OG, For me the math shown is very abstract because of my own math deficiencies. Could you provide a picture of a couple of winning hands that would illustrate how the plan would play out leaving out a "monster" hand. The losing side would be self-explanatory and unnecessary. By showing this, one can understand why it might take 2 hrs of play to achieve the desired results simply because there might not be that "monster" hand.

I love your ability to "read" the table of players and are willing to adapt.


odiousgambit Jun 11, 2022

>Could you provide a picture of a couple of winning hands 

>that would illustrate how the plan would play out 

>leaving out a "monster" hand

Say a $10 table. Say I break even on come-out wins and losses. 

if it is 6x, I'm betting $70 when it is a point. Let's say all the points that get set are 5 or 9. So when I win it's $100 net; if I lose $70 is gone. I posted $1800 for a win, or $1800 for a loss, is about all to expect in the best and worst cases, for a range, over 64 bets. If almost all are points to resolve, 60 let's say, 

if I win 40 [+4000] and lose 20 [-1400] I'm up $2600. 

If I win 35 [+3500] and lose 25 [-1750] I'm up $1750

if I win 30 [+3000] and lose 30 [-2100] I'm up $900

Of course at a negative expectation game I'm more likely to lose than win. Similar scenarios can be concocted to show that, which I won't bother with .  What the Standard Deviations tell me is that in less than 1% of the sessions like that would I ever get that lucky or unlucky, to be seeing more than $2000 in wins or losses, that is. It doesn't say the $1750 win or lose is more likely than $900 win or lose though. It just gives me a range meanwhile anything might happen as we know. 

You can pick apart the above to find unrealistic things about it. Or mistakes. You could have someone come and say my understanding of SD is incomplete. You could certainly give me a raw set of data and tell me to determine the Standard Deviation of that set... and flunk me on the spot. The thing is, I just know that work has been done already and we can just use it. It's statistical math, and you have to figure these things get tested with real data. My experience fits it just fine too.

tuttigym Jun 11, 2022

Mr. OG, Thank you for the explanation, and I understand it. Since there are no odds bets wagered with the PL bet at 6X, isn't it true that the return on all wins is even money? Rhetorical question because you show the return as such. So PL CO wins will give you an edge or head start when no point is previously established and CO craps losers would, of course, work against the bottom line.

1. In the overall scheme of things, how would PL CO's effect the total outcomes in favor of the player?

2. Instead of playing the PL, why not play a PB for the 6X amount on the point? A point winner will provide a more than even money return and a point loser would be the same result as a PL loser.

3. So, would wagering as in number 2 above mitigate the potential PL CO winners in number 1.?


ChumpChange Jun 11, 2022

I'd bet the Don't Pass with 6X odds. When the odds bet loses, switch sides to the Pass Line and bet 3X, 4X, 5X odds so you can win that 6X odds back on one win. Go back to the DP after a 7-out.

odiousgambit Jun 11, 2022

"1. In the overall scheme of things, how would PL CO's effect the total outcomes in favor of the player?" .................................................... Come out rolls, I hope you mean, are just an essential part of the bet. You can't bet the odds without the come out roll becoming a point to resolve. When it can be skipped, say when you put it behind the bet of someone else who doesn't play the odds, it has an EV of zero, but the same expectation of wild swings.

"2. Instead of playing the PL, why not play a PB for the 6X amount on the point? A point winner will provide a more than even money return and a point loser would be the same result as a PL loser".................................................... this kind of evaluation I see a lot. It talks about the payoffs without any mediation by probability. If the probability doesn't matter, just put your money on the '2' or '12' as those bets have the best payouts, 30 to one I think.

"3. So, would wagering as in number 2 above mitigate the potential PL CO winners in number 1.?" ......................... I hope you can see I would expect to lose more money.

odiousgambit Jun 11, 2022

"I'd bet the Don't Pass with 6X odds. When the odds bet loses, switch sides to the Pass Line and bet 3X, 4X, 5X odds so you can win that 6X odds back on one win. Go back to the DP after a 7-out."

It is true that 6x on the Don't is the flipside of 3x4x5x rightside. I've never seen a list of Standard Deviations for the darkside odds, it makes me think you increase the variance doing 6x darkside as a mirror to 3x4x5x rightside.

tuttigym Jun 11, 2022

I was misinterpreting the basic wager as a $70 PL with no odds. Your last set of explanations to my questions cleared it all up for me. So, the only question, for me, is with 60 points to resolve in a session, what are the actual odds of winning a minimum of 30 points of the 60 played? I am sure it can be done, but how often? It would seem to be an exhausting endeavor to play that way, and the probability of winning even $900, as you have noted is perhaps slim. I am positive that you could handle the task of such play simply because of your disciplined approach to game. On the other hand, the vast majority of those who play craps are "antsy" and could not stay the course especially if their bankroll became a casualty of multiple and early 7 outs. I personally could not do it, but then I rarely stay at the table for more than an hour or so. Perhaps you can try this plan at one of your sessions and let us know how you fared.


odiousgambit Jun 12, 2022

that's one thing, it's likely to be a lot less than 60 points out of a total of maybe 64 hands. 64's uncertain as well. Don't take my example too seriously, wasn't written to be accurate. All I know is I could be up or down $1000 and it could approach $2000, but getting chased from the table will put a stop to that as a loss

stay tuned for trip report, in a while though

tuttigym Jun 12, 2022

I love the creativity and honesty. Thinking outside the box is always fun and challenging.


ChumpChange Jun 12, 2022

Say a $10 table. Say I break even on come-out wins and losses.

if it is 6x, I'm betting $70 when it is a point. Let's say all the points that get set are 5 or 9. So when I win it's $100 net; if I lose $70 is gone. If almost all are points to resolve, 100 let's say,

if I win 40 [+4000] and lose 60 [-4200] I'm down $200. (Normal)

if I win 41 [+4100] and lose 59 [-4130] I'm down $30.

if I win 42 [+4200] and lose 58 [-4060] I'm up $140.

If I win 45 [+4500] and lose 55 [-3850] I'm up $650

if I win 50 [+5000] and lose 50 [-3500] I'm up $1500

if I win 35 [+3500] and lose 65 [-4550] I'm down $1050.

If I win 30 [+3000] and lose 70 [-4900] I'm down $1900

if I win 25 [+2500] and lose 75 [-5250] I'm down $2750

Posted by odiousgambit
Apr 07, 2022

Brave New World

In previous threads I mentioned the experience was so bad replacing a cell phone that I was kind of withdrawn for a while, though there were and are other concurrent things going on to bum me out. It's a bit healing to blog about it. It's a long story overall so you have been warned. 

Going back to the beginning [I may repeat myself some], it all started with some come-ons from my carrier telling me I had to get a new phone. I ignored these for a while but finally checked into it from other sources. Yes, it was all true. The old phone was going to be worthless and February was going to be the last time it was going to work, though that has changed and now, with Verizon, you can wait till the end of the year. I have to stay with that carrier as others didn't get a good signal at my home, and I don't want to experiment to see if that changed. Of course knowing now I had lots of time isn't making me happy. 

There is a store in town that has a great big Verizon sign in front, something that would cost a lot of money to put up there. So I saunter in and tell them my situation and the guy tells me to go to Walmart where there is a Verizon desk as well. What? I figured I was talking to an idiot so I came back in the next day and a different clerk quickly tells me the same thing. This time I press her as to why, and I find out they are "a third party operation". My situation of being signed up as a prepaid customer meant the fake Verizon store couldn't do certain things they needed to do, including allowing me to keep my old number. The Walmart guy could. I am still reeling from the realization that there could be such a thing as a fake store with a giant sign. I have to function in this brave new world?

You have to figure Verizon is being forced to provide prepaid, inexpensive service. So they set up a different company, spun one off maybe, to handle all that. You have to believe they hate the idea. But the Walmart desk is supposed to be able to handle getting me off prepaid, something I had decided to do, and get me a new phone. The guy listens to me and what I want and pegs me as a cheapskate. He finds a $99 flip phone Walmart has that will operate on 4G. I think this meant it was automatically a smartphone and he was failing to tell me that, information that just possibly would have allowed me to make a better decision. Anyway I spend an hour with him as he tries to set me up with it. Finally, he calls over his boss and the two of them figure out Walmart is sending all those phones back and he had nothing to replace it with. Maybe at this point I would have gotten smart and just gotten what he did have, though that would mean several hundred more dollars. Instead I went home. Withdrawal time. 

To be continued.


ChumpChange Apr 08, 2022

Android 12 or iOS 15.

odiousgambit Apr 08, 2022

>Android 12 or iOS 15.

a mysterious comment. Is it a question?

Dieter Apr 09, 2022

"You have to figure Verizon is being forced to provide prepaid, inexpensive service."

I know when I looked at the Straight Talk (WalMart prepaid) coverage map brochure, it looked almost identical to the Verizon map.

The difference seems to be who you pay, how much, and after how much use do they limit data speeds. MVNOs are a fascinating world.

I purposely change my number every few years. It changes which prerecorded voice calls to ask if I'd like to press 1 to extend my car's warranty.

Joeman Apr 12, 2022

I'm 100% with you, OG. I tried to hold out as long as I could, but I had to break down and get a smart phone. It came down to two features that my RAZR couldn't do: 1) Receive group texts -- they would come through with no message, if at all. 2) Getting into sporting events. I think all NFL, MLB (probably NBA and NHL, too), and most major college games are now "electronic ticket only" (although, I still would see a few people getting in with paper tickets for some reason).

Since I got one, I do like some of the features it has as a smart phone. I have found that the ability to immediately summon information (especially maps) to be invaluable, but in general, most of the other features are superfluous. 99% of the time, I would much rather still have my RAZR flip phone -- the all-time pinnacle of cell phone design!

odiousgambit Apr 14, 2022

>most of the other features are superfluous

I'd have to say if a person uses more than 3-4 of these something-like-50 apps that came with my phone , they are mentally ill, or on their way to that destination

Posted by odiousgambit
Apr 05, 2022

Part 2: 4G/5G and Jesse James

I got the message loud and clear that my old phone wasn't going to work anymore, not even for basic phone calls. I pretty much had decided to upgrade to unlimited calls and texts even though I was saving an absolute bundle with my pre-paid plan where I was charged 25c for each minute and 20c for each text. Every time I checked for how much I had been spending over the last 12 months, I would come up with a figure $12 to maybe $19 a month. Some months I'd be making a lot of calls and it'd be double or more these figures, but the average was always low. 

I had already decided to give it up, though, and getting the new phone seemed like the time to do that too. With some difficulty I was able to get what is typically referred to as a flip-phone that would work with 4G. I was going on about not wanting a smartphone and I told the salesman I just needed to make calls and texts and didn't need much for data, but what he heard me say was "I'm cheap". To be fair, the phone he sold me was about the only choice without selling me what was clearly a pricey smartphone, so I'll take some of the blame. Plus the phone was new to him as well, and he wouldn't know if people liked them or not. In any case this too-cheap-phone was terrible to make calls with. It wouldn't drop the calls, but there were periods where the other person couldn't hear me.* I decided I had to get an upgrade. 

I threw my cheap nature out the window and just told the guy to get me what will definitely work. These can be quite expensive, but he had a phone for just a few hundred dollars, working on 5G. Unfortunately, I had to upgrade the data portion for it to work, so now I'm spending more each month on something I still don't need. Arrgggggggh. So I laid my Jesse James joke on him. You say to the guy "where is your horse?" and he will say something like "huh?" Then you say "Jesse James had a horse!"

The whole experience hasn't been good. Life is not better. It's made me withdrawn at times. I feel manipulated. More on next blogpost. 

*Cell phones don't work with a transmit button, where you press it and then say 'over' when done so the other person can then press the button and talk. I can't find anything on this, but I believe it is true that this means a cell phone has to decide which side transmits. Otherwise there could be feedback? Incorrect switching seems to be a problem with about any cell phone if there is a lot of background noise. This phone I'll call 'submissive' as it tended to keep switching back to the other speaker at all times, not just if there was noise on that end. Plus I think it may have had a pause period when I was to speak. It's possible the phone may have been made to work if I could get the other person to just be aware of the problems, as some calls went ok. But I decided that was too impractical.


tuttigym Apr 05, 2022

Mr. OG, I have a hand-me-down I phone 6. My carrier is Cricket. I pay $30/mon total. I have unlimited talk and text with 5 g's of data per month which I never exceed. My phone is never tied to me at the hip because I rarely use the data and get fewer than 8 calls a month and text occasionally to those I am close with. If I am with someone and they are involved with their phone, I either say something very rude or leave. If I can, I will make sure my presence is felt whilst the involved party is buried deeply into their phone. BTW I have no pictures and just a few apps. I keep my existence simplified.


odiousgambit Apr 05, 2022

good for you sir!

Dieter Apr 06, 2022

I've had good luck combining a good earpiece or headset with a modest phone. This solution does not work for everyone.

I do find many of the "smart" features useful, including the camera, web browser, podcast apps, calendar reminders, and the ability to use an app to get another phone inside the phone. I do use the phone; at the per minute or per text charges you mentioned, my phone use cost would substantially exceed the flat rate unlimited plan I'm on. Thousands of texts a month adds up quickly.

I haven't dived into the specifics of modern cell phones like simplex/duplex audio. I know that cheap phones seem to mute the microphone when the speaker is making noise, so the other person doesn't get audio feedback and the phone doesn't need to include a high quality (expensive) noise cancellation system. The "speakerphone" mode on cheap phones is often unusable. You may not notice; the person on the other end may.

odiousgambit Apr 06, 2022

>noise cancellation system

the phone I got first, which I had to get rid of, lacked this if there is such a thing. An old fashioned early 20th century type phone avoids feedback by keeping the microphone and the speaker isolated from each other. So I think a cheap cell phone instead tries to control who is transmitting while shutting the other down. Sometimes it worked OK, but the other person can have no noise in the background ... and not try to speak while the other person is speaking. A delay factor was involved too, I believe, when you started to speak. Ugh . The phone just belongs in the trash.

Posted by odiousgambit
Apr 05, 2022

A Vow Bites the Dust

I'm going to say that if you don't have a smartphone now, you soon will have unless you have no cell phone at all. Recent experience tells me that. If you have to get a new cell phone, it will be a smartphone [I'm pretty sure about this]. Yes, there are inexpensive flip-phones you can still get, but they seem to be just stripped down smartphones with few features. A new one has to be compatible with at least the 4G network or they won't sell them, and that's the bottom line. 3G is going away. 

I have a smartphone now, and I resent it. I guess I'll have to explain, which will take more than one blogpost. But here is the bottom line: I vowed to never have a smartphone and I've had to break the vow. 

I'll make the first blogpost on this a rant against the smartphone. I'm going to offend some people, so I apologize in advance. Smartphones are damaging society. I don't know how serious it is, maybe my concern is overblown. But at least in the case of our upcoming generation, it's a threat to mental health even. 

Case in point: my own behavior I had to modify just because I had an ordinary cell phone at the time. I'm at a cookout staged partly to celebrate my return visit to some old friends. I went without my wife, so though she is supportive of both of us having some time away from each other, the smart spouse knows things are best if you don't just completely disappear. So instead of calling we are texting back and forth for a while during this cookout. Finally a friend tells me, wow, that is obnoxious with 'all that beeping'. It occurs to me it's also just plain rude to ignore everybody for that period of time too. I would never have done that years ago. Technology made it possible and sure enough, the next thing you know you don't even realize how rude you're being. Everyone is getting more and more like that, so there's the shelter of normalization ... but it wasn't really normal with this group. Not good. 

Smartphone users, the ones who really get into it, are even worse. In the worst cases you go out to dinner together and they don't have dinner with you! You're at the same table, but they are face down on this glowing object the whole time. The phone alerts them about something and they just have to check it, you know, like an addict who can't take his mind off what he's hooked on. Something you say might trigger it, maybe you were wondering if so and so actor was dead, say ... here he goes, gotta look it up and he's thinking we all appreciate it. No, dude, just join us, you know. While you still can, keep this up and you'll forget how.

In the case of children, they are being given these phones and raised on them. I am largely not in contact with this, but articles are being written about huge mental damage being done. 

So: I had a vow to never be like this. And thus a vow to never have a smartphone; that had to be broken. I feel very manipulated. Very. I'll explain more with the next blogpost.