odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Feb 20, 2022

Why Gamblers Can't Get Educated

When I see some seemingly with-it, at least fairly articulate, person post here with some remarkably stupid idea, I sometimes have to remind myself that it's not so easy to get educated about smarter gambling. The internet is full of misinformation about gambling, and the book world is no different.

Behold "Trade Secrets About Casino Craps That Will Save You Money", an article sent to me by gmail because I want to have articles about developments in Florida Craps sent to me. Never mind that the word 'Florida' can not be found, but let's say you're the guy who doesn't know much about Craps and wants to learn more. It's a perfect example of misleading or useless information.

Quote: article, edited

Casino craps may be the most exciting game on the casino floor...
Thereís certainly a case to be made for a game that hands a player whoís eight drinks deep a pair of dice and lets them fire away...

The casinos love it when players decide to team up in a show of solidarity. They stand to win a lot more money by having the entire table betting in the same direction.

'They' has to mean the casino, so here is misinformation Item One. Not the worst thing for someone to believe, I guess, but it is simply incorrect. The Casino wins the same amount of money in the long run no matter how the bets go down as long as it's the same amount of action.

Quote:

Here are 10 more trade secrets about casino craps that will save you money.

Now for the more discerning newbie, this is the first flag. You should 'just know' right off the bat, no secrets are going to be revealed.

Quote:

When You Bet More, You Lose More Craps tables are full of a myriad of bets for players to choose from. Many players will opt to place several bets across the table in an effort to minimize their risks of losing bets. Unfortunately, this merely serves to increase your overall liability...

I'm including this one to show some of the advice is OK.

But he winds up saying this.
Quote:

Try betting on one outcome per roll. It seems incredibly straightforward, but most gamblers never get this concept.

I'm not sure what he means, you could interpret that to mean you should do one-roll bets like the Field. If so, terrible advice. I think he meant to say one outcome 'per bet' and just one or so bets.

Quote:

Your Best Bet Is Going to Irritate Other Gamblers. The majority of craps players will bet on the pass line...The pass line has a relatively low house edge that slowly draws on your bankroll. It will also keep you in the good graces of most of your fellow gamblers.
However, if you want to get every last roll from your gambling funds, the donít pass line is the way to bet. This bet has an advantage over the pass line thatís less than 1%...

I guess he means by comparison, like 101 is 1% more than 100; but the reader might think he means the HE is 1% less. Badly worded. I suppose it's OK to recommend the Don't, the Wizard does, but personally I think it's bad advice for someone new at playing Craps because they're so likely to embarrass themselves by making the bet when the puck is 'ON'. The amount saved is such a small matter, honestly.

Quote:

... The drawback to betting the donít pass line is that you miss the sense of community and oneness that you get betting the pass line. You may also be subject to some verbal abuse from the majority of players that are losing every time you win a bet

Yes, and here you are recommending it to a newbie. Really?

Quote:

The Dice Have Many Different Probabilities. Every roll of the dice has only eleven possible outcomes... Here are the probabilities for the different possible totals:
7 (1:6)
6 or 8 (5:36)
5 or 9 (1:9)
4 or 10 (1:12)
3 or 11 (1:18)
2 or 12 (1:36)

Dude, you wrote it like you are supposed to write payoff odds, not probabilities. Come on guy, back to school, the numerator is on top, the denominator on the bottom, remember? NOT SIDE BY SIDE. The colon, when used, reads like the word 'to'. For the 7 what you wrote reads as '1 to 6' when the probabilities, sir, are instead one 'in' 6! When we use a keyboard, generally we have to use a slash to suggest numerator/denominator, the one on top, the other on bottom. Man! not getting this right drives me crazy.*

Quote:

The above figures wonít necessarily translate to wins, but knowledge is power. Plus, every bad bet you donít make is saving you money.

Considering that the writer surely knows he is putting out a worthless article, I think he must have burst out laughing after writing that. Especially since there's not a single thing there about how to spot a 'bad bet'

Quote:

Youíll Never Beat the Casino Long-Term.

Back to some of his better advice, which I don't include.
Ending with,
Quote:

The casino doesnít want players to become savvy to this fact.

I dunno. Everybody knows the casino has that house edge. Players get deluded into thinking there might be a system that can work, true, but this is due to other influences and the player's own idiocy. As Mission says, what they really want is to keep playing. If the House wins in the end, but they kept playing longer, is what they're usually wanting. Why insult the reader saying the House edge is secret?

Quote:

Players Can Shut the Game Down.

Just some blah blah here saying you can get tossed out for being rude. Really? I didn't know that.

Quote:

You Should Never Hedge Your Bets in Craps,

OK, some not well written but good advice, not included here, ending with,
Quote:

The casinos want to get as much money as possible from players; the hedge bets are merely another tool in their arsenal.

I don't see how you can lay this one on the casino. Many pit bosses think you really can get over on them with the comp system this way, so hedging bets is not really encouraged.

Quote:

You Donít Need to Know Every Bet to Enjoy Craps. Most players think they must understand every bet on the craps table before making a single wager. Thatís not at all the case ...

Back to good advice, but hardly a secret.

Quote:

Not Your Garden Variety Gas Station Dice.

Now he's really having to reach for something to fill the article with now. Not worth reproducing.

Quote:

Donít bet the Donít Pass for Immediate Gratification. The donít pass line is your best chance of leaving the casino with house money playing craps. Thatís because the house edge is the lowest in the game, so any wins count more because youíre losing less often.
However, it would be best for you to have the patience to bet the donít pass line. Rarely will the bet be decided on the come-out roll.

Rarely? And really different than the Pass line? Only somewhat different, it seems to me.
Quote:

Itís Not All in the Wrist. Dice control is one of the craps strategies that has been floating around for decades. Yet, despite the alleged experts who preach the merit of dice control and the dozens of books that have been written on the subject, thereís no evidence that it works.
Let me clarify if you could control the results by holding the dice a certain way or flicking your wrist casinos would change the rules.

Fine

Quote:

Our Conclusion: If youíre new to the game and want to get the most from your sessions, these 10 trade secrets about craps will save you money.

Wrapping it up here, satisfied, I guess, that he has succeeded in totally confusing the guy 'new to the game'

https://www.bestuscasinos.org/blog/trade-secrets-about-casino-craps-that-will-save-you-money/

* an edit. I woke up in the middle of the night again realizing I had some errors. I've also had to fix the title twice, the first fix had an embarrassing error. So I guess I should lighten up? The thing is, I really do get the feeling the idea here is to actually just write a bunch of drivel, not caring to educate anybody in reality.

Comments

tuttigym
tuttigym Feb 20, 2022

Mr. OG, You took a great deal of time and effort into producing this blog. It is well done and easy to follow. Thank you. I personally would quibble on your assessment of "hedging." I can use "hedging" as a +PV (probability value). That is a new term I have invented. (I think it is new.) It is defined as "producing wagering patterns that increase the "probability" of winning a wager to the extent that the player creates a personal edge over the HE/HA.



BTW I will not try to start a thread with that one. Members will go ballistic.



tuttigym

Dieter
Dieter Feb 20, 2022

Quote:

The thing is, I really do get the feeling the idea here is to actually just write a bunch of drivel, not caring to educate anybody in reality.





Pretty sure you nailed it.

Fortunately, some websites and authors still have pretty good quality standards.

tuttigym
tuttigym Feb 20, 2022

Mr. OG, I went to the link you provided and clicked on the article. I thought that perhaps you might have left a comment or two to inform the readers of your accurate criticisms and comments. Sadly, I was a bit disappointed. Maybe I will jump in and do my thing and see if any feathers are ruffled.



tuttigym

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 22, 2022

Yes, Dieter... I don't remember the details of how I came across the W.o. Odds site [which came before WoV]. You could email Michael with a question and he would email you back very reliably. Perhaps I just got lucky, because there surely were tons of misleading books and websites to lead you astray back then too. On the other hand I'm fairly sure being able to discern dreck from spot-on is extremely helpful in this matter.



Tuttigym: looking into finding your comments now. I'll leave some too.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 22, 2022

Tuttigym, I may also not leave a comment due to the sign-in process being a bother

Quote:

I can use "hedging" as a +PV (probability value). That is a new term I have invented. (I think it is new.) It is defined as "producing wagering patterns that increase the "probability" of winning a wager to the extent that the player creates a personal edge over the HE/HA.

Hedging can be misunderstood. Soopoo apologized for hedging in a thread where it seemed to me he was instead using arbitrage, a completely legitimate thing that only similar to hedging.

Now, as far as your ability to make hedging work for you to win, I guess the proof will be in the pudding. Finding wagering patterns that will do so is the dream of all gamblers, going back to the dawn of time I think.



Quote:

BTW I will not try to start a thread with that one. Members will go ballistic.

Wise.

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odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Jan 28, 2022

Really, BetMGM?

Are you kidding me?

are you kidding me?

I've got my win/loss statement for 2021 with BetMGM online gambling now. I've kept good records of my own using their provided information that they provide in detail. Additionally, I have kept separately a record of deposits and withdrawals which was meticulously checked and re-checked.

Understanding that I decided to be a piker to avoid the $600 in aggregate winnings over time that they say will cause a report to the IRS, I expected a report showing I won more than I lost to the tune of a couple hundred, a bit less actually. Instead I see a win/loss statement showing I lost about that amount. Considering the whole situation here, they have no excuse for this. None!

In other words the online win/loss statement is the same BS made-up wild guess that it is at the brick and mortar casino! I am absolutely floored! This means I will have to continue to play without knowing what they are going to claim. More importantly, I don't know if I will get a W2g generated due to incorrect information.

I can't count on them getting it incorrect in the way I would want. I'm going to have to continue to be a complete piker since that last bit "can't happen"

Comments

DRich
DRich Feb 02, 2022

Some companies issue 1099's below $600. The IRS just says that if is is over $600 they must issue one. I once got one for a $50 drawing win at a casino.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 03, 2022

issuing paperwork when it isn't required? sort of odd



I'm reminded of when, at my age, I get carded at a bar, trying to get a drink, to make sure I'm 21. Clearly that bar just got busted for selling to minors! This business of 'got caught now I'll be super vigilant' might be at work when you get a $50 1099. Or maybe some other reason like "it feels good to be an asshole sometimes"



in this, coming up with incorrect win/loss when they should be able to nail it down to the last cent, well, makes me think they want to preserve the inaccuracy. If they were accurate, the IRS would love it and ride them? Just a theory.

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Dec 28, 2021

Actually Not Smoove At All

Those who live in hipper circles may think of the [new-to-me] comedian JB Smoove as the perfect choice for mascot [is that the right word?] of the irreverent ads being run by Caesars Entertainment for their new online sportsbook enterprise. Certainly it's somewhat droll to see a Black Caesar ... I guess the downside being you now have a flippant image for folks to dwell on should they not be happy with their experience. I can say for my self, in fact unhappy, I readily focus on that image. 



Having won enough bets with BetMGM to fear their threat to report winnings to the IRS, I've stopped betting there till January to keep from going over the line that causes reporting*. I was looking for an alternative site to bet sports online, now that Virginia has that. 

I'm a hold-out against smartphones, so I needed a site that works with desktops, and though maybe most of them do, the introductory information they offer seldom indicates that they do. Smartphone apps rule the day for this way of gambling, it seems. I learned in some manner I no longer remember that Caesars Sportsbook does have betting with just a home computer, so I decided to give that a whirl. 

By some unclear arrangement, William Hill runs the sportsbook, at least here in VA they do. The Terms and Conditions are the usual eye-popping declaration that you have no rights whatsoever, etc [and which I have already blogged about] so although they offer an up-to $1001 match to your initial deposit, I again started things with a modest amount I'd be willing to throw away should I get any grief about withdrawals. In fact, the first real thing I tasked them with was showing me that process would be painless ... they did pass this test with a quick transfer back into my paypal account of the amount I deposited. Testing this and that is how I go about it, and, unfortunately, not all has gone well. 

I'll state again that I am a little different than most, and would have accepted the opposite experience, meaning I would have contacted no one in that operation should obstacles to a withdrawal have been unreasonable. And I will not contact anyone again about other things that did not go well, after trying to email with the address provided for such. The last thing I want with this kind of activity is dealing with any hassles. Nothing would make me more miserable; the price for them to pay is a negative review. 

Having said that, I'll acknowledge that it is possible that using a smartphone app would work much better. There is plenty of evidence the problem is bad design for the desktop app. You get the experience of seeing an offer you like and taking care to follow the steps you are to take, then, after making the bet, getting no indication that you are set for the offer. This even occurred with the initial deposit match offer. I would go to make my first deposit and see that the offer code is auto-filled into the box to use, that the code is correct in fact, but right next to this box it says "incorrect code". Finally I just made a deposit with the code box empty, giving up on it since I was only going to put a small amount anyway.  A couple of days later I see it gets matched with a freebet. No indication that this was going to happen, and this is the way things go. You simply don't have a way of knowing. 

I initially see a lot of matching freebet offers for various parlays. The expected result is to lose the parlay, especially since they demand it generate odds of +300 or more. Generating +299 is not enough in this actually odd notion they have. So, of course, getting the freebet on a loss has to come through. The first time I try it, I cautiously use a minimum bet. 10 cents! The parlay loses and after about 24 hours I get the freebet. The next two times that I've tried this and lost, no freebet shows up. Yes I've waited plenty of time. 

The difference with BetMGM is remarkable. With them you get acknowledgement on every offer. If something didn't go right, one of the ways you can tell is you can cancel the bet [you can't if you go in on an offer]. There is a section of the site you can go to check things out as well. Often, the offer uses a 'token' you use for extra assurance. Caesars does not allow you to cancel a bet btw. This opposite experience with Caesars is of course completely unacceptable. They have to fix this or forget it! I can't recommend Caesars as a result and think it is regrettable they have put out such a terrible product. 

Ironically, right now some offers from Caesars I'm getting look pretty good, though there may be deal-killer conditions. I don't know because I'm not looking into them. I'm done. 


* you may be thinking I'm bragging, but, no, I'm just being cautious in the extreme. That outfit does not say how they are going to report wins, and though they would have absolutely no excuse for doing so, may not factor losses before deciding the report should be on its merry way. If they do factor losses, I have nothing to worry about. I'll know something around the middle of January it seems.

Comments

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Jan 27, 2022

there was a $20 minimum for withdrawals that was not mentioned in the T&C and I had run my bank down to $9. Got this up to $20+ betting on hockey and got the rest of my money out. So I am now officially done with this ... with yet another sore point to think about.



A nefarious minded bunch here if you ask me.

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Dec 20, 2021

The House Always Diddles

I'm working with a new online sportsbook. I wanted to check to make sure it wasn't diddling with the odds when you set up a parlay, since they don't say how they figure them. I was getting very interested in a +EV situation. If it doesn't pan out, and it looks like it won't, I'll blog about that too. 

In any case, I set up a parlay that was 3 legs, odds for straight bets were -450, -110, and +100, resp. The math seemed simple to me, that's 1/5.5 , 1/2.1, and 1/2 in probabilities ... but I was making the mistake of forgetting I was taking the fat end of the odds on two legs and crunched the wrong number ... the site showed it should be +366 and I was coming up with +2210 LOL. 

I realized that I was doing it wrong but was stumped and had to get help by searching ... this evidently is usually done by the so-called "decimal odds" gambling sites use, which is still somewhat of a perversion of regular math if you ask me. But then I woke up in the middle of the night and knew all of a sudden how to get the right answer with math I already knew. This working it out asleep thing happens to me a lot!

So for the 2 legs where I was on the fat side of the odds of 1/5.5 and 1/2.1, I needed to change those probabilities to 4.5/5.5 and 1.1/2.1. [derived directly from 450:100 and 110:100] The probability of a +100 bet, the last leg, is still 1/2. Multiplying these together gets 0.2142857142857143 which is 1 in 4.6666 ... 

Yep that means +366 is correct for that parlay. Actually, +367 I think, which shows they can't quite resist a little diddling!

Comments

ksdjdj
ksdjdj Dec 27, 2021

I have always resided in Australia (mainly use "decimal odds" here).

I prefer "decimal odds" ( ` for 1) when betting on markets that have 3+ options you can bet on, mainly because it is easier for me to work out the "implied bookmaker's % " / "market % " (some online bookmaker's show you this at the bottom of the market, but most that I used don't).



It makes sense to me that most table games in casino's state it in "fractional odds" ( ' to 1)



I actually like "American odds" when betting on most sports (2 options to be on ), since you can see quite easily that "implied %" is in the bookmaker's favor,

eg -130 and +110 .

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Dec 29, 2021

it took me a long time to get used to American odds. This is funny, but I imagined that if you bet at a brick and mortar sportsbook, you were expected to bet $100 minimum bet!



That seems so ridiculous now, but that whole world is fairly new to me, even now

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Dec 12, 2021

Cherokee November 2021

I started, and then erased, a blogpost about a November 7-9th trip to Cherokee NC a couple of times now. I'm finding I just don't want to repeat what I observed in my last post about it ... you can just read the one titled "Cherokee May 2021" if you missed it. It was a repeat in most ways, including seeing elk in the National Park, and we again enjoyed ourselves immensely. Again we stayed and played at Harrah's Cherokee Hotel and Casino, to be precise. 

There are a few things worth noting. Met up with Doc and his wife again, always a good time with that admirable couple. This time also met up with Tuttigym! And as always some thoughts about the gambling. 

Had two nice dinners with Doc and his wife, and Doc and I got to play some Craps. I don't think there was much notable in the way of win/loss for either of us, but Doc came out ahead for sure. I definitely did not in the same sessions, but had a nice one to offset that, played at a different time. Doc and I mused how we missed the company of some members that we don't see anymore, not having much contact even. A real crowd showed up sometimes in past years, and those were good times. 

Doc now had left, but on my last day Tuttigym surprised me by deciding to meet up, even though it was just to be briefly. We visited for a bit and then of course had to play some Craps. I decided to go darkside as that was working out for me at another unwitnessed session. We were separated by the Stick, but after what I think was less than 30 minutes I see T-gym dumping a bucketfull of green chips in the middle of the table, coloring up. He had benefited from a shooter's long roll and didn't want to give it back I guess. I didn't get hurt darkside as I was only playing one number on the Don't line, more about that below. The shooter was rolling a lot of numbers but 7'ed out on the line number as I remember. T-gym said he was up about $300 which looked about right. We chatted a little more but then he was saying farewell. Since he clearly only had a small amount of time he could give me, it was nice of him to come by. Next though a woman went on a long roll and she was hitting the pass line number one after the other, making me replace them. She was *killing* me and I finally had to surrender, just betting no more and waiting for her to 7-out. Finally I gave up and colored up while she was still going, the session also killing my shot at breaking about even at Craps for the visit. 

I had quite a build-up of anticipation for playing Ultimate Texas Holdem on the machines with the $1 minimum. One shot at getting a seat went south fast when I realized how drunk the other people were. I made my excuses and left. I did have it to myself in the wee hours of another occasion ... something like 4 hours in fact. Naturally that meant I was more likely to lose, but I couldn't seem to get ahead at any point and wound up down about $50. Playing with no one else at the table didn't normally seem to matter much, except several seats out of 4 are plagued with glare so you want to be able to pick. As far as I could tell, without making a test obnoxious to the others, the game waited for you to make a decision no matter how long you took. That potentially was a problem as I sometimes study a strategy card I brought, plus one of my own making. But my last shot at it early in the morning was solo again, though. Unfortunately bad luck crushed me so bad right off the bat I just bailed out right away and went to the dice under glass machine and played the darkside for 2x odds. This was one thing during the visit that kept paying off for me. It had a sign that said $1 Craps, but it was $5 for the pass/DP ... I think I remember that right. 

I was playing real table Craps in the way I've come to do it when I don't like the table minimum. There's a lot to like about this casino, especially now that it's easier to get a room comped. But they are determined to keep table minimums high, and now it seems $10 tables are a thing of the past. I wind up exploring ways to keep my total action under control without going to the extreme of just making a few large bets in a short session. Instead, I keep to making a max bet of about $50 to include the line bet plus free odds. Additionally, only the one bet until it resolves. At Cherokee the free odds are 10x, but if the line bet minimum is $15, you can't put down 10x odds and keep to about $50, of course. So lately I have avoided completely any Come bets; this means missing out on the excitement of a shooter who's hitting all the numbers. In fact it can be boring somewhat until you remind yourself what you have on the line, which is plenty. If I play darkside, I skip the DP and play the DC only when the shooter is on my side of the table. This usually makes for a small wait period, limiting my action even further. 

So it means playing at roughly 2x odds instead of the available 10x odds. 2x makes for a 0.606% HE, while at 10x, it's 0.184% . Now I've been telling myself 'who cares?' as long as it's below 1%, but I've gone with this for a while and I just feel like I notice the difference. 2x it seems makes for more than three times the house edge of 10x. One problem is I've previously been pretty lucky at the Cherokee Craps tables. Sometimes the minimum was lower, and sometimes the Teddys method was available. I don't have control over these things.

I could do 10x and keep my action the same. That means one short session with big bets. I'd have to tell anybody who wanted to play Craps with me I wouldn't be there long. I'd miss out myself on the escape you get bellying up to the Craps table and saying goodbye to the real world for a while. So, I don't know. I think I really should go to this.