Coronavirus math
Quote: mcallister3200He’s been taking a victory lap any time he can find evidence any treatment but LL might not work. Quite odd if you don’t enjoy the pandemic.
I have done research into not just LL but it's competition as part of my investment strategy.
My statement's to Hydroxychloriquine effectiveness as well as Remdesvir are based on that.
Just as I asked AZ, present scientific data that proves me wrong that Hydroxychloriquine doesn't work.
I won't argue the science.
But saying doctors feel it works isn't getting any FDA approval and that goes for LL as well.
Plenty of doctors say LL works. To confirm there are double blinded placebo trials ongoing now.
Similar trials showed Hydroxychloriquine had no demonstrable effect.
AZ has said he feels field trials are meaningless and we should just go with doctors gut feeling based on some anecdotal examples of patients who recovered (and shocking to me he also says if the drug works for Malaria it should work on anything with similar results)
This is a forum of mathematicians who won't listen to anyone with quack math but if someone spouts dubious science suddenly that's okay
Quote: darkozI have done research into not just LL but it's competition as part of my investment strategy.
My statement's to Hydroxychloriquine effectiveness as well as Remdesvir are based on that.
Just as I asked AZ, present scientific data that proves me wrong that Hydroxychloriquine doesn't work.
Same people in OZ denying it as here.
Quote: darkoz
AZ has said he feels field trials are meaningless and we should just go with doctors gut feeling based on some anecdotal examples of patients who recovered (and shocking to me he also says if the drug works for Malaria it should work on anything with similar results)
This is a forum of mathematicians who won't listen to anyone with quack math but if someone spouts dubious science suddenly that's okay
Is there a single mathematician who wants to defend the AZ method?
Quote: rxwineIs there a single mathematician who wants to defend the AZ method?
Mathematicians that believe a roulette system works, que EB lol
Quote: darkozAnd yet you cannot provide one link????
I'm supposed to believe you????
All I ask is a reasonable link to back up your claims.
If you can't provide one link to a reputable medical association finding of your claims then stop spouting those unproven claims.
PS, in the field is anecdotal evidence. Means nothing. What some doctor observed without studied placebo could mean the patient might have gotten better anyways
Having been a longtime user of chloroquine and its cousin primaquine, under orders of the U.S. Public Health Service, I was surprised to see such a strong disclaimer involving such a noteworthy “product.” Especially following the charts of barely a handful of "problems."
"11 6APPENDICES
6.1APPENDIX A.FDAADVERSE EVENT REPORTING SYSTEM (FAERS)
FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS)FAERS is a database that contains information on adverse event and medication error reports submitted to FDA. The database is designed to support FDA's postmarketing safety surveillance program for drug and therapeutic biological products. The informatic structure of the database adheres to the international safety reporting guidance issued by the International Council on Harmonisation. Adverse events and medication errors are coded to terms in the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities terminology. The suspect products are coded to valid tradenames or active ingredients in the FAERS Product Dictionary.
FAERS data have limitations. First, there is no certainty that the reported event was actually due to the product. FDA does not require that a causal relationship between a product and event be proven, and reports do not always contain enough detail to properly evaluate an event. Further, FDA does not receive reports for every adverse event or medication error that occurs with a product. Many factors can influence whether or not an event will be reported, such as the time a product has been marketed and publicity about an event. Therefore, FAERS data cannot be used to calculate the incidence of an adverse event or medication error in the U.S. population." fda
Sweden has decided in the most infected areas to give local officials the power to close places where crowds gather
Quote: terapinedSweden is seeing a rise in cases
Sweden has decided in the most infected areas to give local officials the power to close places where crowds gather
England France and Italy are entering new shutdowns.
Not total yet but the virus is hitting the second wave over there it appears.
This isn't any surprise if you studied past viral plague.
The Fall is usually worse than the Spring wave in multiples.
You haven't seen nothing yet lol
England is currently seeing massive growth rate of infections, albeit from a moderate to low level. My own city saw infection rate double over the last 7 days.Quote: darkozEngland France and Italy are entering new shutdowns....
You haven't seen nothing yet lol
Think about that... double in 7 days, quadrupal in 14 days, >16 fold increase in a month, >256 fold increase in two months.....
Mostly we are complying with social distancing, but our government is only introducing lax and trivial lock down measures. There is no sign of sufficiency in latest measures.
Hospital ICUs are filling up fast. When they are full deaths at home will rocket.
Regular elective surgeries and cancer treatments etc are getting cancelled too.
Quote: OnceDearEngland is currently seeing massive growth rate of infections, albeit from a moderate to low level. My own city saw infection rate double over the last 7 days.
Think about that... double in 7 days, quadrupal in 14 days, >16 fold increase in a month, >256 fold increase in two months.....
Mostly we are complying with social distancing, but our government is only introducing lax and trivial lock down measures. There is no sign of sufficiency in latest measures.
Hospital ICUs are filling up fast. When they are full deaths at home will rocket.
Regular elective surgeries and cancer treatments etc are getting cancelled too.
Spanish Flu(American casualties only):
First wave (Spring) 75,000 dead
Second wave (early Fall) 292,000 dead
Third wave (late Fall) 250,000 dead
Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat said someone famous
Quote: OnceDearEngland is currently seeing massive growth rate of infections, albeit from a moderate to low level. My own city saw infection rate double over the last 7 days.
Think about that... double in 7 days, quadrupal in 14 days, >16 fold increase in a month, >256 fold increase in two months.....
Mostly we are complying with social distancing, but our government is only introducing lax and trivial lock down measures. There is no sign of sufficiency in latest measures.
Hospital ICUs are filling up fast. When they are full deaths at home will rocket.
Regular elective surgeries and cancer treatments etc are getting cancelled too.
Except history shows that it will not get to a 16 fold increase like that. Is it is even mathematically possible?
Quote: darkozSpanish Flu(American casualties only):
First wave (Spring) 75,000 dead
Second wave (early Fall) 292,000 dead
Third wave (late Fall) 250,000 dead
Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat said someone famous
So what are you asking for? A law to ban viruses or something?
Quote: AZDuffmanExcept history shows that it will not get to a 16 fold increase like that. Is it is even mathematically possible?
If you are not even going to spend one minute to research history...
Spanish Flu. FIFTY MILLION DEAD!
That's DEAD! NOT INFECTED BUT DEAD!
Look it up! Yeesh!
(Bubonic plague, the Black Death, I mean seriously? Insisting that history has shown plague doesn't spread exponentially?)
Quote: darkozIf you are not even going to spend one minute to research history...
Spanish Flu. FIFTY MILLION DEAD!
That's DEAD! NOT INFECTED BUT DEAD!
Look it up! Yeesh!
Like over 2 years. Not a 256 fold increase in a few months.
Yeesh indeed!
Quote: AZDuffmanLike over 2 years. Not a 256 fold increase in a few months.
Yeesh indeed!
Still wrong.
Do your research.
90% of the deaths occurred in the Fall of the first year.
The later waves weren't so deadly as herd immunity kicked in.
Of course it only took fifty million dead to achieve herd immunity
Only more than 8x the dead in the Holocaust in 1/8 of the time. Not anything spectacular
Quote: darkozStill wrong.
Do your research.
90% of the deaths occurred in the Fall of the first year.
The later waves weren't so deadly as herd immunity kicked in.
Of course it only took fifty million dead to achieve herd immunity
Only more than 8x the dead in the Holocaust in 1/8 of the time. Not anything spectacular
Why would you compare the flu to the Holocaust?
But yes, millions dead will achieve herd immunity.
We cannot control everything. There are things more powerful than mankind.
One day a virus will knock out 40-60% of mankind. Those that are left will live in a crippled world. Such a world will be on a few generation path towards human extinction.
And the planet will go on.
Quote: AZDuffmanWhy would you compare the flu to the Holocaust?
But yes, millions dead will achieve herd immunity.
We cannot control everything. There are things more powerful than mankind.
One day a virus will knock out 40-60% of mankind. Those that are left will live in a crippled world. Such a world will be on a few generation path towards human extinction.
And the planet will go on.
So basically you want to fiddle while Rome burns.
There are some people who believe in that.
They aren't looked on too kindly by history.
Quote: darkozSo basically you want to fiddle while Rome burns.
There are some people who believe in that.
They aren't looked on too kindly by history.
Basically I am not going to hide in my house afraid of life.
One day it will be over for me, later it will be over for all of mankind.
Nothing either of us can do to change that.
You do not want to try things that seem to work, like hydroxychloroquine and zinc taken at the early stages. You want to hide in lockdown waiting for it to get better. All when your chances of death are less than 1% if you catch it from the 3% of the population that has it.
I will stick to my way.
They say there were 3 or 4 waves to the 1918 flu, with the second being the deadliest by far. October of 1918 being the peak, and it pretty quickly started declining after that. By late November and December deaths were down considerably and while the pandemic didn't officially end until summer of 1919, with that decline in December things were getting back to normal. This time line fits the pattern that these things last roughly a year or a little more.
By that timeline, we are in the second wave and could be at or near the peak. That would be great and encouraging. Maybe things could get back to normal early next year even without a vaccine.
But here is the discouraging part. It may be that the 1918 flu peaked in October and then quickly declined and disappeared because they had reached "herd immunity", meaning 60% of population had contracted the virus at which point, spread becomes much more difficult and the virus fizzles out.
According to CDC numbers just over 8 million have contracted this virus (covid) in the US, which doesn't even put us at 5%. Now we all know that number is low. That is just reported cases that have tested positive. Many, Many more have had the virus and recovered without being included in that 8 million number, some had it with no or little symptoms. So surely that 8 million number is low. But how low? Is it really twice as high? 3 times? 10 times? 20 times? (which is what we would need to be getting near 60% and herd immunity). I have no idea.
The State of Arizona is paying $400 to people previously exposed to the virus for two blood donations three weeks apart, so they decided it was worth it to be tested. All three were negative.
While there are many people who probably had the infection without realizing it, it seems there are also a lot of people who think they had it and didn't.
Quote: AZDuffmanBasically I am not going to hide in my house afraid of life.
We don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.
Quote: rawtuffWe don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.
It might only take 10 days. People aren’t shedding the virus all the time. While we’re at it, we might be able to eliminate a few other contagions As well that keep a foothold in the world population.
Quote: rawtuffWe don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.
We mostly already had that. But you are basically saying to hide until it is over. Just limited time hiding.
See, way more people than you think are essential. And who is going to do the disinfection while you have everyone hiding at home?
IOW, no way you would be able to keep everyone locked and apart and let it die out.
The problem boils down to Americans are so used to their every need being met that they cannot handle something that is not "fixed" in a month. Same as the Iraq war when people wondered why a war was not over before hockey season was.
Quote: rawtuffWe don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.
You are talking to a guy who doesn't even want people to wear masks.
What the U.S. did earlier should not be labeled a lockdown. It was lockdown-lite, so to speak -- not what other countries were doing. Too brief and not stringent enough.
The problem now, regarding shutting down in the U.S., is twofold. First, a second pause six months after the first is not going to be as effective because the virus is further seeded. Much transmission now is within families or micro social environments. Second, doing an appropriate stringent lockdown now would be piling on economic damage to an already limping economy. Whereas had an appropriate lockdown been instituted initially, the economic damage could have been reduced in the long term. Instead, the view was short term.
Everything else was junk science and Norman Vincent Peale magical optimism.
I had a handle on this from the beginning, but Osterholm's numbers scared me. I thought he was being a red alert guy, a bit extreme. I was, of course, wrong. His numbers are going to end up absolutely correct, and the trajectory he described is spot on.
Quote: AZDuffmanWe mostly already had that. But you are basically saying to hide until it is over. Just limited time hiding.
See, way more people than you think are essential. And who is going to do the disinfection while you have everyone hiding at home?
IOW, no way you would be able to keep everyone locked and apart and let it die out.
The problem boils down to Americans are so used to their every need being met that they cannot handle something that is not "fixed" in a month. Same as the Iraq war when people wondered why a war was not over before hockey season was.
You keep repeating this nonsense. No one is telling you to hide until the thing goes away. What people are saying is there are common-sense approaches to the situation. What you seem to be hearing is gawd knows what.
Quote: billryanYou keep repeating this nonsense. No one is telling you to hide until the thing goes away. What people are saying is there are common-sense approaches to the situation. What you seem to be hearing is gawd knows what.
Lockdowns, closing public places from churches to restaurants, people on this forum afraid to touch casino cheques, on and on. It all comes down to people saying we should hide at home until it is over. I seriously have not seen such fear of everyday life in my life.
LOCKDOWNS = Hide at home.
Quote: billryanYou keep repeating this nonsense. No one is telling you to hide until the thing goes away. What people are saying is there are common-sense approaches to the situation. What you seem to be hearing is gawd knows what.
No kidding
I am really really really scared of this virus
I mask up everywhere indoors
But
I am getting out
I'm travelling all over the country seeing a gazillion sites
I just took a hike to an old volcano hunting for Petroglyphs
I was outside all day getting a ton of exercise
And
Playing it safe making sure I will not get the virus
Live your life but live it safely. Wear a mask as if your life depended on it. Go outside. Get exercise
I would block AZ. Here is AZ thinking. He only listens to the extremists on the left and demands you defend that position. Its absurd. You come back with common sense, he ignores that and continues promote left wing extremists. It's really weird.
Quote: darkozYou are talking to a guy who doesn't even want people to wear masks.
I do not care if they wear them or not. I just do not want to be forced to wear the silly things.
Quote: AZDuffmanI do not care if they wear them or not. I just do not want to be forced to wear the silly things.
War, famine and plague are the three things notorious for government restrictions to ensue.
For example during the Blitz when the Nazis were bombing England people were ordered to turn out the lights so targets could not be distinguished.
I'm just curious, if you were, say in London during the blitz would you insist on keeping your lights on because it was an inconvenience to be in the dark?
Quote: darkozWar, famine and plague are the three things notorious for government restrictions to ensue.
For example during the Blitz when the Nazis were bombing England people were ordered to turn out the lights so targets could not be distinguished.
I'm just curious, if you were, say in London during the blitz would you insist on keeping your lights on because it was an inconvenience to be in the dark?
No, I would turn them out because it is easy to see why it needs to be done.
85% of people catching the virus were mask wearers so it is not so easy to see the benefit.
But you will be safe if around me as you will be wearing one, no reason for you to worry.
Quote: AZDuffmanNo, I would turn them out because it is easy to see why it needs to be done.
85% of people catching the virus were mask wearers so it is not so easy to see the benefit.
But you will be safe if around me as you will be wearing one, no reason for you to worry.
Repeatedly you take one sentence of a detailed report and ignore the conclusion of the report.
Why?
The report (3rd time I pointed this out) is that mask wearing doesn't work if people take them off to go dine or drink at the bar or smoke in the casinos.
This resulted in 85% of covid cases being people who wore masks but TOOK THEM OFF IN PUBLIC PLACES.
Is it possible for you to understand that report?
Is it possible for you to read a full report and not just zero in on one sentence that taken out of context conveniently makes you look like you won your case?
[You only make yourself look bad when you repeatedly do this. It's not fooling most people. They just wind up looking down at you and your opinions]
Quote: darkozRepeatedly you take one sentence of a detailed report and ignore the conclusion of the report.
Why?
The report (3rd time I pointed this out) is that mask wearing doesn't work if people take them off to go dine or drink at the bar or smoke in the casinos.
This resulted in 85% of covid cases being people who wore masks but TOOK THEM OFF IN PUBLIC PLACES.
So what you are saying is most people are not wearing the masks "right" anyhow?
I will go with the conclusion. 85% of people getting it were maskers.
I've heard COVID-19 infects your scrotum sack and you'll be sexually contagious so the human race could be in for a rude awakening when it comes to human reproduction.
Quote: ChumpChangeThis isn't like AIDS where you have a lifelong infection.
Have you looked a the long hauler studies
Scary
30 days after release from a hospital, 70% of survivors are still sick.
They are afraid this is a life long illness and really nobody knows
Quote: AZDuffmanSo what you are saying is most people are not wearing the masks "right" anyhow?
I will go with the conclusion. 85% of people getting it were maskers.
Evidently it doesn't matter what anyone says. You just hear what you want. What a sad way to go thru life.
Way Way out of line
Wont even quote it because its so out of line
nuke is coming
Quote: Notboz21Don’t you still owe me $100?
????????????
Who are you?
Whoever you are, you are about to be nuked lol
you ARE the weakest link :-) goodbye
Quote: Notboz21Who did you bet with on here and never pay!
Betting Trump would never meet Putin?
Yea, now you remember.
Is this Boz???????
Wow
Due to the tone, I am shocked
Let's just put the record straight
I do owe you 100
BUT
I tried to pay you. I sent you a PM requesting a PayPal acct or another way to pay
Did not respond . Another PM. Nothing.
I'm around. It's really up to you to try to collect
All you had to do was send me one PM. Why didn't you?
Oh well
I'm good for it
But
Now we may have a problem. Looks like Boz nuked and your sock puppet nuked
How do I know I'm paying Boz????????????
Next day I called her back and she professed her love for me.
Boz is clearly in love with WOV
And they caught it from the other 15% who refused to wear masks.Quote: AZDuffman
85% of people catching the virus were mask wearers .
Quote: Notboz22Wiz will confirm it’s me.
That said, it’s probably an issue.
Do us both a favor, send it to this Tampa charity once I’m banned and post it here.
/
And we are good.
Paging the Wizard
Is this Boz?
OBVIOUSLYQuote: terapinedPaging the Wizard
Is this Boz?
Quote: AxelWolfOBVIOUSLY
The real question is what happened to him?
I am sure this will draw a response but seriously...he used to be normal and now is just completely off his rocker. Seriously he seems like a guy on and off his meds.
