Coronavirus math
Quote: SOOPOOI now know another close contact who has mild symptoms, took an at home test, and it’s positive. Unless this person gets sicker, this Covid infected person will not appear in any count of Covid cases. The more I think about it, if I test positive but need no medical care, I won’t be counted either. Seems like in a few weeks ‘most?’ will have been infected, and herd immunity will be here. I hope.
Kewlj…. Is your case ‘counted’, or did you take an at home test?
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As to counting cases. On one hand it is like counting crimes stopped by a gun. Most never get counted. So the more at-home tests the more potential cases out there. OTOH, is it really right to count a "positive" for someone who does not even notice they are sick? Also, more than a few people are probably getting tested more than once. If that is done at a clinic not at home and gets counted more than once, how much overage do we have?
The only way to count at-home tests would be to force some kind of online reading. This leads to all kinds of issues of do you really want that tracked? I know I do not.
Quote: OnceDearAnyone got an underground copy of Songs of the South?
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"Song of the South"
tuttigym
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymCovid virus math question: An individual waits in line for an hour or more to be tested. He finally gets tested; he tests negative. What are the odds of that individual or any other individual becoming infected with Covid in the next day or ten days or 30 days? How often is one to be tested given the prevailing paranoia fostered by just about everyone?
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There are people out there that want testing weekly.
My company put a little button on our timeclock page asking for our status. I have not yet answered, I think I will wait it out see how serious they are about it.
People who had a booster shot had a 90% lower fatality rate than unboosted patients.
Fauci Says 'Fully Vaccinated' Now Includes "Up To Date" Boosters.
Leading question ignoredQuote: tuttigymgiven the prevailing paranoia
tuttigym
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Quote: gordonm888
The problem with modeling and analysis is that the Covid data available to go into the model is corrupted in several different ways or otherwise difficult to interpret and use, I imagine there are world-class modelers trying to analyze this Covid epidemic at the DOE national labs (Los Alamos, Livermore, Oak Ridge, Brookhaven, Argonne, etc.) who are on teams spending roughly 40 hours a week working on understanding all the data being reported. But its hard for those of us sitting at home to put in that kind of time.
All *mostly* true but that doesn't mean a sufficiently knowledgeable and motivated individual can't play along at home. Folks with the time (e.g., retired scientists/mathematicians) or energy (e.g. grad students) can easily access much of the data and build their own models. For example, look at Youyang Gu. To quote Bloomberg:
Quote:In the contest over who could make the most accurate coronavirus forecast, it was global institutions vs. a guy living with his parents in Santa Clara.
Admittedly, not everyone has a MS from MIT's AI Lab but my point is it is possible to learn a great deal if you're sufficiently motivated. The s/w tools are free and there's a hell of a lot of data out there. As you noted, it gets down to a matter of time.
Quote: SOOPOOTwo more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
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Interesting on the masking. Was out shortly last night and it remains about only 10% here. Grocery store felt weirdly deserted last night, hard to tell if just January lull of people keeping at home.
Nephew birthday party last week. Since then my mother, sister, and others test positive. All vaxed. I am feeling a bit better day by day since NYD. Doing my part though staying home as much as possible and a little extra distancing on needed trips out.
Quote: SOOPOOTwo more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
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One in Twenty-One...... Currently infected in the US.
15,536,976/330,000,000
How many people breathe on you per day? Hard to be in the least bit social without being exposed.
Three to Five
Estimate of R value of Omicron. If you don't know what R value is, get out from under that rock!
Three
Number of days needed for daily infection rate to double
Soon.....
.... Soon we will hopefully near herd immunity.
Thankfully Omicron is proving less deadly.... But so many cases, such rapid growth, it's still having big impact.
Stay Safe, Y'all
