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AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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SanchoPanza
January 4th, 2022 at 4:25:16 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I now know another close contact who has mild symptoms, took an at home test, and it’s positive. Unless this person gets sicker, this Covid infected person will not appear in any count of Covid cases. The more I think about it, if I test positive but need no medical care, I won’t be counted either. Seems like in a few weeks ‘most?’ will have been infected, and herd immunity will be here. I hope.

Kewlj…. Is your case ‘counted’, or did you take an at home test?
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As to counting cases. On one hand it is like counting crimes stopped by a gun. Most never get counted. So the more at-home tests the more potential cases out there. OTOH, is it really right to count a "positive" for someone who does not even notice they are sick? Also, more than a few people are probably getting tested more than once. If that is done at a clinic not at home and gets counted more than once, how much overage do we have?

The only way to count at-home tests would be to force some kind of online reading. This leads to all kinds of issues of do you really want that tracked? I know I do not.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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OnceDear
January 5th, 2022 at 7:40:38 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Anyone got an underground copy of Songs of the South?
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"Song of the South"

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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January 5th, 2022 at 7:49:42 AM permalink
Covid virus math question: An individual waits in line for an hour or more to be tested. He finally gets tested; he tests negative. What are the odds of that individual or any other individual becoming infected with Covid in the next day or ten days or 30 days? How often is one to be tested given the prevailing paranoia fostered by just about everyone?

tuttigym
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 5th, 2022 at 8:04:13 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Covid virus math question: An individual waits in line for an hour or more to be tested. He finally gets tested; he tests negative. What are the odds of that individual or any other individual becoming infected with Covid in the next day or ten days or 30 days? How often is one to be tested given the prevailing paranoia fostered by just about everyone?

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There are people out there that want testing weekly.

My company put a little button on our timeclock page asking for our status. I have not yet answered, I think I will wait it out see how serious they are about it.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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January 5th, 2022 at 8:19:38 AM permalink
US has 95% Omicron & 5% Delta. So 20X more Omicron than Delta in 5 weeks. We had about 50K new cases of Delta per day, now we've got a million new cases of Omicron per day.
People who had a booster shot had a 90% lower fatality rate than unboosted patients.

Fauci Says 'Fully Vaccinated' Now Includes "Up To Date" Boosters.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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January 5th, 2022 at 8:27:26 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

given the prevailing paranoia

tuttigym
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Leading question ignored
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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January 5th, 2022 at 9:10:19 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


The problem with modeling and analysis is that the Covid data available to go into the model is corrupted in several different ways or otherwise difficult to interpret and use, I imagine there are world-class modelers trying to analyze this Covid epidemic at the DOE national labs (Los Alamos, Livermore, Oak Ridge, Brookhaven, Argonne, etc.) who are on teams spending roughly 40 hours a week working on understanding all the data being reported. But its hard for those of us sitting at home to put in that kind of time.


All *mostly* true but that doesn't mean a sufficiently knowledgeable and motivated individual can't play along at home. Folks with the time (e.g., retired scientists/mathematicians) or energy (e.g. grad students) can easily access much of the data and build their own models. For example, look at Youyang Gu. To quote Bloomberg:
Quote:

In the contest over who could make the most accurate coronavirus forecast, it was global institutions vs. a guy living with his parents in Santa Clara.


Admittedly, not everyone has a MS from MIT's AI Lab but my point is it is possible to learn a great deal if you're sufficiently motivated. The s/w tools are free and there's a hell of a lot of data out there. As you noted, it gets down to a matter of time.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 5th, 2022 at 10:36:06 AM permalink
Two more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 5th, 2022 at 12:11:15 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Two more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
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Interesting on the masking. Was out shortly last night and it remains about only 10% here. Grocery store felt weirdly deserted last night, hard to tell if just January lull of people keeping at home.

Nephew birthday party last week. Since then my mother, sister, and others test positive. All vaxed. I am feeling a bit better day by day since NYD. Doing my part though staying home as much as possible and a little extra distancing on needed trips out.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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January 5th, 2022 at 12:44:40 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Two more people I know added to the COVID positive rolls today. For the first two years I actually only new maybe a person a month that had COVID. I today know 5 people positive. None are related. All are vaccinated. None are very sick. I just went to a donut shop, the bank, a pharmacy, and Wegmans. Pretty much universal masking. Just a few people with masks around their ears but not covering nose and/or mouth. Snow storm coming. Time to hunker down.
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One in Twenty-One...... Currently infected in the US.

15,536,976/330,000,000

How many people breathe on you per day? Hard to be in the least bit social without being exposed.

Three to Five
Estimate of R value of Omicron. If you don't know what R value is, get out from under that rock!

Three
Number of days needed for daily infection rate to double

Soon.....
.... Soon we will hopefully near herd immunity.

Thankfully Omicron is proving less deadly.... But so many cases, such rapid growth, it's still having big impact.

Stay Safe, Y'all
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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