Coronavirus math

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm still coughing 17 years after SARS, so I have to take Advair 250/50 twice a day. I've got a year's supply saved up. If I stop taking it I'll be coughing like I was dying of COVID-19 within a week or two. Small particulates get to me: soot blowing down the street, steam from my chicken noodle soup, not even gonna speculate about bong smoke but the cough is the same.

Try Taiwan? I've heard there's no cats there and the streets are paved with cheese.

NYS managed to get the positivity rate below 1% for awhile.

Below 1% means the virus is dissipating,, being kept from being spread.

Over 1% means you are going the opposite direction.

We are in a surge and NYS has reached 3% I believe.

So it was pretty shocking to hear Iowa just hit 50% POSITIVITY RATE

Contact tracers are getting the cold shoulders.

Quote: darkoz

NYS managed to get the positivity rate below 1% for awhile.

Below 1% means the virus is dissipating,, being kept from being spread.

Over 1% means you are going the opposite direction.

We are in a surge and NYS has reached 3% I believe.

So it was pretty shocking to hear Iowa just hit 50% POSITIVITY RATE

You’re confusing the positivity rate with the R rate.

Quote: unJon

You’re confusing the positivity rate with the R rate.

Oh thanks.

Quote: unJon

You’re confusing the positivity rate with the R rate.

Please explain the difference. Thanks.

Quote: billryan

Please explain the difference. Thanks.

Positivity rate is the number of positive texts divided by the number of total tests in a given period. It’s what people are using to measure “how bad it is” in a given area. As you can tell, there are some assumptions that go into that. For example, where I live there are a lot of people that go take a test even if a doctor doesn’t recommend it, because they are “worried.” That behavior would tend to decrease the positivity rate. But it’s the closest easy data point we have for “how bad it is.”

R rate is a measure of at a given time in a given place of how many people an infected person will infect. An R below 1 means that COVID cases will decrease over time because each infected person is infecting less than 1 other person. A R above 1 means that COVID cases will increase because an infected person is infecting more than one person.

A positivity rate of 50% is absurd. One wonders whether there’s something going on there in the denominator of who is getting tested. An R of 50% would be good (less than 1) though an R of 50 would be catastrophic (we would be hitting Chumpchange level projections).

Quote: billryan

Please explain the difference. Thanks.

Really? No offence, but the R0 (reproduction) rate is THE key measure. In Europe it's importance is drummed into us as the measure we aspire to control with whatever measures we apply.

Simply put, R0 is the number of people that an infected person goes on to infect. R0>1:Bad R0<1: Good

So, for example if we initially have ten infected people and the R rate is 0.9, By the time those ten are recovered, there will be another 9 infected.... At the next cycle, we have 9x 0.9=8 Then 8.1x0.9=7 .... and so on, as the number infected exponentially decays towards 0 infected.

If R=1.5 then our 10 people infect 15. Those 15 infect 22. Those 22 infect 33 and on and on. Exponential growth.

Unchecked by any measures, the R rate for Covid is somewhere in the region 2 to 5, so infection grows explosively.

R is a number that can be experimentally derived, but not easily measured. It's a dynamic and temporary measure and changes with our behaviours.

The positivity rate is a measure of the percentage of those that get tested, who turn out to be positive for infection. It's a function of the dynamics of those that go for a test: Where people are encouraged to take a test regardless of symptoms, you'll get a much different positivity rate to where tests are only administered to those admitted to hospital. It's a measure that gets manipulated by politicians with an agenda.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/what-exactly-does-the-covid-19-positivity-rate-tell-us/ar-BB16HftD
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-what-is-the-r0-reproduction-rate/vi-BB1aPNg1

Policy gets decided on both or either of these measures, or indeed on no stronger measure than gut feel or faith.

“Chump Change level projections”. Keep him in blue I say, the straw that stirs the drink!

If you travel to Taiwan, here are the rules. This is how a country eliminates the virus.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1330287079708893184.html?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark