Coronavirus math

Quote: LVJackal

What I haven't seen mentioned is that no, masks will not provide total protection. Never were intended to. Rather they reduce the spread of an infected person quite a bit. Limiting the number of people they in turn infect. It was later determined, that the uninfected, if wearing a mask, was provided a bit of protection by reducing the viral load they were initially exposed to. Leading many to assume the smaller viral load led to a much less severe case and potentially less need for hospitalization. There is compelling statistical evidence coming out on places that have mandated masks and how effective they were.

Of course.
Even if wearing a mask reduces by "only" 30% the overall contagiousness of the virus throughout the population (I'm randomly quoting one peer reviewed study from this year on that 30%) the overall effect is huge. Those ~30% compound exponentially and reduce a great deal of the strain on the health care system and the economic burden due to sick people. It potentially allows millions of people to not die of covid19 but be saved by a cure/vaccine which comes later on the way.

But no, why should I inconvenience my all important SELF with wearing a mask? F that, I'm doing as I please I'm not a part of a civilized society or anything.

If the science people say that wearing a mask reduces spread, based on data, I accept that. But I gotta say, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Lets say person A and person B are 6 feet away from each other, say in a casino. Person A is shedding virus. So how does person A wearing a mask change anything? Every breath he exhales contains virus and it is still making it's way into the common "air" just a little less directly, meaning person B is still going to breath in that common air through his mask. It is not as though these masks are air tight. ???

And this is just my way of thinking, I haven't heard anyone suggest this, but to me for a person shedding virus (recovering) which it is my understanding is a process that can last from days to weeks, wearing a mask seems like about the worst thing for the person shedding virus and trying to recover. The mask is going to keep the virus particles right there, You will breath them in again and have to shed them all over again.

I would think the most efficient way to shed virus would be to get outside in the open and do some deep breathing exercises. Maybe physical exercise to get you breathing deeply and exhaling deeply, spitting out virus with each breath. But what do I know. ?? Just thinking out loud.

I am not at a location to search and link articles: there are numerous but a few quite well written and not so science paper sounding.
Hopefully, over the next couple days, I or someone else can link really good data to back this up. Also the 6' distance was assuming the virus was not aerosol - which it has now been admitted it is - the distance helps - much more outdoors.

Imagine we are 6' apart and I exhale cigarette smoke through a mask. The bulk will be pushed in other directions with a lessened amount able to pass through and directly hit you in the face. Over the space of 6' that smoke will dissipate a bit- this we can visualize pretty well. Now instead of smoke, this is viral particles.

My mask will force a bit in other directions, our distance will dissipate an amount, your mask will filter out a portion, your nostrils and body will also filter even more particles. Really wish I had the articles handy.. however, many believe the amount of initial exposure leads to worsening cases, at the very least, a smaller initial exposure will give the body more time to get to work on eliminating the threat before it spreads too far.

We can see this here in Vegas- once the mask mandate went into effect we went from well over 1k cases a day and plummeted to around 400 or so. It was such a dramatic drop I thought we were manipulating our data. Hospital cases dropped as well. Same is true with Arizona. These and many other mandates are currently headlines in scientific areas of news and the focus of a lot of study. I have only read the headlines and not in depth articles.

A good quick source for a lot of information at once with links to articles is a popular site which refers to itself as the front page of the internet. Many sections or sub forums for covid 19; scientific, overall, by location, survivor stories, and areas where volunteers are sought out.

Quote: AxelWolf

And they caught it from the other 15% who refused to wear masks.

How do you figure?

You are not even adding things up correct.

Quote: kewlj

If the science people say that wearing a mask reduces spread, based on data, I accept that. But I gotta say, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Lets say person A and person B are 6 feet away from each other, say in a casino. Person A is shedding virus. So how does person A wearing a mask change anything? Every breath he exhales contains virus and it is still making it's way into the common "air" just a little less directly, meaning person B is still going to breath in that common air through his mask. It is not as though these masks are air tight. ???

And this is just my way of thinking, I haven't heard anyone suggest this, but to me for a person shedding virus (recovering) which it is my understanding is a process that can last from days to weeks, wearing a mask seems like about the worst thing for the person shedding virus and trying to recover. The mask is going to keep the virus particles right there, You will breath them in again and have to shed them all over again.

I would think the most efficient way to shed virus would be to get outside in the open and do some deep breathing exercises. Maybe physical exercise to get you breathing deeply and exhaling deeply, spitting out virus with each breath. But what do I know. ?? Just thinking out loud.

Well first, you are thinking of 'shedding' like a dog sheds hair. The virus is at the intra-cellular level. The 'shedding' is happening inside your body. The physical virus doesn't have to be physically expunged for you to get better. Rather the virus has to be stopped from replicating Inside your cells. As virus laden cells die off, so does the virus (if it can't replicate.

This level is called the viral load and is measurable.

Virus itself needs to be inside cells. They cannot live on their own. For someone to get infected they must physically inhale YOUR SALIVA PARTICLES. Meaning the virus isn't in the air, it's in your saliva.

Six feet apart and your saliva particles (invisible to the naked eye) have fallen to the ground.

Or your saliva has landed on your mask..

Best way to visualize it is the cold air fog you exhale in winter. That foggy breath is ALWAYS being exhaled by you. The low temp is just making it visible. And if you wore a mask in winter, then that saliva fog you exhale is not there, caught by your mask.

As for re-inhaling the virus, it is replicating on the cellular level. Doesn't matter if you inhale your own cells. You cannot reinfect yourself!

If people will not wear masks - we will never stop this disease.

Quote: olga909

If people will not wear masks - we will never stop this disease.

Thank you for your contributions to the discussion. I can’t wait until you’ve made enough posts to post links.

Quote: unJon

Thank you for your contributions to the discussion. I can’t wait until you’ve made enough posts to post links.

We will soon be learning about his "favorite" casino.


ZCore13

Businesses cannot even get their own employees to wear masks properly.

At Ocean AC last weekend, I saw a restaurant hostess take off her mask to shout someone’s name across a crowd waiting to be seated.

I then witnessed a dealer remove her mask so she could sneeze.

SMH....

And then, the hostess that removed her mask to shout in my direction seated us and asked us not to remove our mask in the 30 second interim between being seated and having water served. Because that will make all the difference when I am sitting down for a 2 hour meal.

She also told us they were not giving physical menus out due to COVID and we would have to look it up on our phone. The waiter then came over and gave us menus without us asking.

I am fine with masks since the data seems to show they help, but holy hell all this useless safety theater needs to end.