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rawtuff
rawtuff
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
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rsactuaryAxelWolf
October 19th, 2020 at 10:56:44 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Basically I am not going to hide in my house afraid of life.



We don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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October 19th, 2020 at 11:04:24 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

We don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.



It might only take 10 days. People aren’t shedding the virus all the time. While we’re at it, we might be able to eliminate a few other contagions As well that keep a foothold in the world population.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 19th, 2020 at 11:11:37 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

We don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.



We mostly already had that. But you are basically saying to hide until it is over. Just limited time hiding.

See, way more people than you think are essential. And who is going to do the disinfection while you have everyone hiding at home?

IOW, no way you would be able to keep everyone locked and apart and let it die out.

The problem boils down to Americans are so used to their every need being met that they cannot handle something that is not "fixed" in a month. Same as the Iraq war when people wondered why a war was not over before hockey season was.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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AxelWolf
October 19th, 2020 at 11:13:21 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

We don't have to hide indefinitely or be afraid of life, not at all. It would take ~30 days, only one month of strict lockdown for everyone (barring the absolutely essential workers of course) in a country combined with thorough disinfection to eradicate the virus once and for all. If the entire world was keeping with those measures it would've been all over in 30 days.
Will it happen? No, not in countries without a dictatorship anyway. Way too many jackasses will keep going to do as they please. So we're all heading to a 1 -2 -3 years of total mess instead.



You are talking to a guy who doesn't even want people to wear masks.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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darkozrsactuaryAxelWolf
October 19th, 2020 at 11:24:09 AM permalink
Most of the effective lockdowns in other countries lasted 60-70 days.

What the U.S. did earlier should not be labeled a lockdown. It was lockdown-lite, so to speak -- not what other countries were doing. Too brief and not stringent enough.

The problem now, regarding shutting down in the U.S., is twofold. First, a second pause six months after the first is not going to be as effective because the virus is further seeded. Much transmission now is within families or micro social environments. Second, doing an appropriate stringent lockdown now would be piling on economic damage to an already limping economy. Whereas had an appropriate lockdown been instituted initially, the economic damage could have been reduced in the long term. Instead, the view was short term.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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October 19th, 2020 at 11:49:05 AM permalink
Look, Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota nailed all the numbers and the likely trajectory at the very beginning back in March. He quoted somewhere between 250,000 and 880,000 U.S. dead and a two-year grind way back then. He laid it out exactly as it's unfolded.

Everything else was junk science and Norman Vincent Peale magical optimism.

I had a handle on this from the beginning, but Osterholm's numbers scared me. I thought he was being a red alert guy, a bit extreme. I was, of course, wrong. His numbers are going to end up absolutely correct, and the trajectory he described is spot on.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
rawtuff
October 19th, 2020 at 1:58:02 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

We mostly already had that. But you are basically saying to hide until it is over. Just limited time hiding.

See, way more people than you think are essential. And who is going to do the disinfection while you have everyone hiding at home?

IOW, no way you would be able to keep everyone locked and apart and let it die out.

The problem boils down to Americans are so used to their every need being met that they cannot handle something that is not "fixed" in a month. Same as the Iraq war when people wondered why a war was not over before hockey season was.



You keep repeating this nonsense. No one is telling you to hide until the thing goes away. What people are saying is there are common-sense approaches to the situation. What you seem to be hearing is gawd knows what.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 19th, 2020 at 2:05:14 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

You keep repeating this nonsense. No one is telling you to hide until the thing goes away. What people are saying is there are common-sense approaches to the situation. What you seem to be hearing is gawd knows what.



Lockdowns, closing public places from churches to restaurants, people on this forum afraid to touch casino cheques, on and on. It all comes down to people saying we should hide at home until it is over. I seriously have not seen such fear of everyday life in my life.

LOCKDOWNS = Hide at home.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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October 19th, 2020 at 2:26:32 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

You keep repeating this nonsense. No one is telling you to hide until the thing goes away. What people are saying is there are common-sense approaches to the situation. What you seem to be hearing is gawd knows what.


No kidding
I am really really really scared of this virus
I mask up everywhere indoors
But
I am getting out
I'm travelling all over the country seeing a gazillion sites
I just took a hike to an old volcano hunting for Petroglyphs
I was outside all day getting a ton of exercise
And
Playing it safe making sure I will not get the virus

Live your life but live it safely. Wear a mask as if your life depended on it. Go outside. Get exercise

I would block AZ. Here is AZ thinking. He only listens to the extremists on the left and demands you defend that position. Its absurd. You come back with common sense, he ignores that and continues promote left wing extremists. It's really weird.
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 19th, 2020 at 2:29:34 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You are talking to a guy who doesn't even want people to wear masks.



I do not care if they wear them or not. I just do not want to be forced to wear the silly things.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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