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billryan
billryan
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May 24th, 2020 at 3:06:49 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Yes, NOTHING.



Is a meat packing plant a grocery store? Meat packing plants have a sanitation standard many times that of a grocery store. I worked in grocery years ago and the meat department had the highest sanitation standards in the store by far.

Oh, and they did not need to wear masks.



Let me see if I understand this. Years before the corona virus, you worked in a grocery store and no one needed masks. Therefore no one needs them now. Is that the gist of it?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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May 24th, 2020 at 3:11:27 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It is from most things I have been hearing. ...
1% of the population dead? That would be 100MM in China alone. We have not seen near that.



So your number is plucked from the air, just as mine were. Do you agree that accurate numbers would be desirable or useful?

China Population (LIVE) 1,438,771,853
1% of that 14 Million

Agreed we have not seen that. Nor have we seen much honest reporting of any sort from there.

It would be about 3 Million for the USA, but it's early days.

For the record, I favour MUCH improved testing and contact tracing as the core of a solution.

Social distancing just doesn't seem to be something your society will embrace, because of the structure of your society, same in the UK and Europe for that matter.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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May 24th, 2020 at 3:30:34 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

So your number is plucked from the air, just as mine were. Do you agree that accurate numbers would be desirable or useful?

China Population (LIVE) 1,438,771,853
1% of that 14 Million

Agreed we have not seen that. Nor have we seen much honest reporting of any sort from there.

It would be about 3 Million for the USA, but it's early days.

For the record, I favour MUCH improved testing and contact tracing as the core of a solution.

Social distancing just doesn't seem to be something your society will embrace, because of the structure of your society, same in the UK and Europe for that matter.



Most western societies are not going to accept this for much longer. Masks seem to have been worn in Eastern Asian societies for some time now. Even here before the virus you would see Asians wearing them sometimes. Maybe from one of the many former virus scares or maybe it is just so crowded there they see it as a smart thing to do. In the west, not so much.

The models so far have been wrong, wrong, and wrong. At first people accepted "a few weeks" of this. By May 1 it was about 6 weeks and no end in sight. Around then is when I noticed that most people favored opening. Here in PA one poll gave the governor's handling an 11% approval! He now seems to be accelerating some openings probably because he is seeing acts of civil disobedience on the rise. You cannot keep people locked down forever. Not when 98% of them are seeing no local danger.

One thing for sure is the roads are not nearly as empty as they were 4 weeks ago. People are out driving somewhere.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TumblingBones
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May 24th, 2020 at 4:46:03 PM permalink
A recent article in The Economist evaluated the accuracy of the projections made by several COVID-19 models [Ref 1]. The one most often cited by the White House is the IMHE model. As of May 4th, its Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for a 14 day forecast was 7%. For the same period, the model developed by Los Alamos National Lab had 3% MAE. The best model, with a 1% MAE is one developed by a recent MIT graduate, Youyang Gu, working on his own [Ref 2]. It's worth checking out as he gives detailed projections for each country. For the US the predictions are at both the national and state level. I just skimmed a few of the states but (SPOILER ALERT) if I was living in Iowa I would be worried.

[Ref 1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/23/early-projections-of-covid-19-in-america-underestimated-its-severity
[Ref 2] https://covid19-projections.com/
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
unJon
unJon
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OnceDear
May 24th, 2020 at 5:56:16 PM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

A recent article in The Economist evaluated the accuracy of the projections made by several COVID-19 models [Ref 1]. The one most often cited by the White House is the IMHE model. As of May 4th, its Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for a 14 day forecast was 7%. For the same period, the model developed by Los Alamos National Lab had 3% MAE. The best model, with a 1% MAE is one developed by a recent MIT graduate, Youyang Gu, working on his own [Ref 2]. It's worth checking out as he gives detailed projections for each country. For the US the predictions are at both the national and state level. I just skimmed a few of the states but (SPOILER ALERT) if I was living in Iowa I would be worried.

[Ref 1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/23/early-projections-of-covid-19-in-america-underestimated-its-severity
[Ref 2] https://covid19-projections.com/



Thank you! An on topic and informative post thatís not just people spouting politically nonsense.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
rxwine
rxwine
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May 24th, 2020 at 6:26:47 PM permalink
Around the time they first started analyzing the virus they said something like people with Type O+ blood may have more resistance to the virus.

I've been waiting for someone to do a large patient data analysis to look for any other possible correlations. I mean, they've announced the propensity of a few groups who are susceptible, but I'm disappointed no one has announced any big data mining project. Even if only to announce there are few commonalities.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
Minty
Minty
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May 24th, 2020 at 7:12:23 PM permalink
The hardest part about decision-making for this is that there's so much uncertainty. How deadly is it? How contagious? What's the efficacy of masks? We don't really have concrete, consistent answers. Without them, it's easy to make the case experts don't know what they are talking about and we should reopen in a flurry. It's also easy to say that we don't know anything and need more time to observe before taking action. My biggest concern is that if we reopen areas that are seeing a low concentration of cases while keeping the hot spots closed that numbers will pick up more. People travel constantly and it doesn't take much intermingling to hit new areas. A church service, a discrete hairdresser or someone getting a drink at a bar. These people want to go on with their lives as normal, but they aren't consciously thinking about how they'll impact others. For better or worse, the health of the nation is a public matter, not a private one.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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May 24th, 2020 at 8:26:16 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Please cite a source for that stat. Define numerator and denominator.
Of those infected, what proportion does your source say will die?
Left unchallenged, I'd expect 80% of population to get infected at least once. That seems widely accepted as the threshold where herd immunity makes the virus wane.

From what I'm seeing here, roughly 1 in 8 of those that test positive will die. I acknowledge that most of those infected never get tested. 12.5% of 80% would still be 10% of population. If there is only 10% of infections currently being detected, that's 1% population dead. Deeply skewed towards a certain demographic, of which I'm a member and so is my wife. I anticipate that if I or my wife fall into the 80% that get infected, then at least one of us dies. I don't like those odds. Nothing like 1 in 200 from where I'm looking.

"Please cite a source for that stat."
billryan
billryan
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May 25th, 2020 at 1:19:01 AM permalink
Quote: Minty

The hardest part about decision-making for this is that there's so much uncertainty. How deadly is it? How contagious? What's the efficacy of masks? We don't really have concrete, consistent answers. Without them, it's easy to make the case experts don't know what they are talking about and we should reopen in a flurry. It's also easy to say that we don't know anything and need more time to observe before taking action. My biggest concern is that if we reopen areas that are seeing a low concentration of cases while keeping the hot spots closed that numbers will pick up more. People travel constantly and it doesn't take much intermingling to hit new areas. A church service, a discrete hairdresser or someone getting a drink at a bar. These people want to go on with their lives as normal, but they aren't consciously thinking about how they'll impact others. For better or worse, the health of the nation is a public matter, not a private one.




That is why it is better to err on the side of caution. A study last week indicated that as many as 35,000 lives were lost by closing a week late. How many will be lost by opening too soon?
In all likelihood, there are at least a million infected people out there with cabin fever just itching to get out and about. Have fun mingling with them.
RogerKint
RogerKint
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AZDuffmanSOOPOO
May 25th, 2020 at 1:40:34 AM permalink
Let's err on the side of caution by letting freedom ring.

Let's memorialize the fallen by keeping the liberty for which they fought alive. Or, let's remove that last bit off the national anthem and sit down when we pee.
100% risk of ruin

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