pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
May 12th, 2013 at 9:41:29 PM permalink
Double or Nothing excerpt

Tom Breitling is trying to teach us how the odds of craps in his book. He opens up with the following statement.
The rules are fairly simple. If Mr. Royalty bets the pass line and his first roll of the two dice totals 7 or 11, he’s a winner. There’s only a 22 percent chance of that happening. If Mr. Royalty’s first roll totals a 2, 3 or 12, then we take Mr. Royalty’s money. That will do him in 11 percent of the time. If Mr. Royalty’s first roll is 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10, then that number will be Mr. Royalty’s point. He’ll have to roll his point again before he rolls a 7 in order to win. If he rolls a 7 before he rolls his point, he loses. After Mr. Royalty makes a point, the odds are only slightly in our favor that he won’t make his number: 51.3 percent. But once he begins to roll, the odds climb in our favor.
67 percent of the time, he’ll roll a 7 and lose before rolling another 4.
60 percent of the time, he’ll roll a 7 and lose before rolling another 5.
54 percent of the time, he’ll roll a 7 and lose before rolling another 6.
54 percent of the time, he’ll roll a 7 and lose before rolling another 8.
60 percent, he’ll roll a 7 and lose before rolling another 9.
67 percent, he’ll roll a 7 and lose before rolling another 10.

I actually find the boldface statement to be confusing. The rest is straightforward. But then the author is coming up with some crazy numbers.

The odds of a roller winning ten straight at craps is 1,361 - 1.
The odds of a roller at craps going twenty-two straight are 7,869,881-1.

On the twenty-third roll, Mr. Royalty crapped out.

The difficulty with the numbers is compounded by his terminology. What does it mean to win "ten straight"? Are you counting winning a 7&11 on a come out roll as a win? Did he not throw craps at all on a come out roll? Did he make his point that many times? If so the odds would be astronomical.
Where did he get that number 7,869,881?

The closest I can get to his numbers are (495/244)^10=1,181 and (495/244)^22=5,737,705. We know that the throwing the dice more than 108 times are 7,177,897.

If this Mr Royalty was actually winning roughly $110K each time, and he lasted more than 100 rolls of the dice and then left the casino, it sound awfully suspicious.

Which also brings me to my final question. Why would a casino owner say "crapped out" instead of "7-out"?
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 260
  • Posts: 13398
May 12th, 2013 at 10:10:01 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin


Which also brings me to my final question. Why would a casino owner say "crapped out" instead of "7-out"?

He was a high school bookie, 800 number pioneer, internet booking pioneer, .... had a whole bunch of money .... and bought a casino.

If he had purchased a medical school would you have expected his vocabulary to be precise?

He was forced to sell the casino because of poor management decisions... the trouble is he was the management.

High odds... brought in that smarmy guy who wouldn't survive at a ten dollar table because of his manners. Didn't bring in enough high rollers to have a base of action though. They came, they cream skimmed, they left.

Brought in a TV production company... had them say anything about the place they wanted to: no oversight no control. Place was depicted as Sin City Extraordinaire... Men, hookers, monkeys, ... no wonder wives nationwide said to hubby "Go elsewhere".

Didn't know math, didn't know casinos. Made too many mistakes too fast to learn the business.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 3263
May 12th, 2013 at 10:13:10 PM permalink
It should be of no surprise that most of these small-time, vanity-type books are full of inconsistencies, inaccuracies, and errors. Most people are stupid and most people can't write for shit.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 4471
May 12th, 2013 at 10:21:14 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

...He was forced to sell the casino because of poor management decisions... the trouble is he was the management.



I don't know if that statement is true or not, but he bought the casino for $215 million and sold it for $340 million in two years. A nice $125 million in profit.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 3263
May 12th, 2013 at 10:31:47 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Double or Nothing excerpt

After Mr. Royalty makes a point, the odds are only slightly in our favor that he won’t make his number: 51.3 percent. But once he begins to roll, the odds climb in our favor.



Given only that a shooter has established a point, what is the chance he will make it? I calculate it this way...

5/24 of the time, the point will be 8 and, during those times, the 8 will be made 5/11 of the time.

5/24 of the time, the point will be 6 and, during those times, the 6 will be made 5/11 of the time.

4/24 of the time, the point will be 9 and, during those times, the 9 will be made 4/10 of the time.

4/24 of the time, the point will be 5 and, during those times, the 5 will be made 4/10 of the time.

3/24 of the time, the point will be 10 and, during those times, the 10 will be made 3/9 of the time.

3/24 of the time, the point will be 4 and, during those times, the 4 will be made 3/9 of the time.

So:

(5/24 * 5/11) + (5/24 * 5/11) + (4/24 * 4/10) + (4/24 * 4/10) + (3/24 * 3/9) + 3/24 * 3/9)

= 67/165 or 40.06 percent of the time the shooter will make his point given that he has established a point.
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
May 12th, 2013 at 11:25:56 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don't know if that statement is true or not, but he bought the casino for $215 million and sold it for $340 million in two years. A nice $125 million in profit.



The website says "Tim and Tom sell The Golden Nugget for $113 million in profit, making their second $100 million before they turn 40."
Tom Breitling lives near the Wizard in Summerlin. Mike may know him.

One would think you would know craps probabilities before buying a casino, and raising the limits.

In the video, Tim justifies his raising the minimum in craps by saying "the odds are still with the house". Which seems funny since no one says the odds are not with the house, but you still have to think about short term variance and cash flow. That's the reason for house limits.
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
May 13th, 2013 at 8:39:24 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

It should be of no surprise that most of these small-time, vanity-type books are full of inconsistencies, inaccuracies, and errors. Most people are stupid and most people can't write for shit.



Tim was the high school bookie. The writer of the book was Tom, who was supposed to be the intellectual of the partnership. Also the nave midwestern kid who liked sports and had never seen a c-note in his life before college.

The odds of winning a zero house edge game 10 times in a row are 2^10=1024 . I think that most people with minimal mathematics knowledge understand that concept. they should understand that the odds of winning a game with a house edge should be some 1:x where x is somewhat larger than 1024. Once again that should be intuitive. The exact calculation is a little involved but it shouldn't be hard to look it up as 495/244= 2.0286885246 where (495/244)^10 = 1,181 .

But 1 in 2.0286885246 is the odds of putting a bet on the come out roll and with no additional bets, and doubling your money. I can't understand his confusing explanation. Nor can I understand his using the term "crapped out" instead of "7 out". It's almost as if he didn't understand the game at all. Yet he made a fortune and is a fixture on local TV shows.

Quote: sodawater

Given only that a shooter has established a point, what is the chance he will make it? I calculate it this way...
= 67/165 or 40.06 percent of the time the shooter will make his point given that he has established a point.



Yes, that would be correct. I am not sure where the 51.3% came from. It is not just wrong, but it is grossly wrong. Once again it is almost as if he doesn't understand the game.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 3263
May 13th, 2013 at 12:11:53 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin


Yes, that would be correct. I am not sure where the 51.3% came from. It is not just wrong, but it is grossly wrong. Once again it is almost as if he doesn't understand the game.



My guess is that someone told him the house edge on craps was 1.3 percent and he just added 1.3 to 50 to get 51.3, which is completely idiotic.

  • Jump to: