Odds Behind the Line?

Everyone talks about the odds behind the line as leading to a great low house edge. I understand that by taking the odds the house edge is reduced. But I'm not really sure why this matters if you are trying to minimize losses. The house edge at craps is always against you. If you try to find the lowest minimum bet game and want to minimize your dollar losses, why would placing the odds matter? Placing odds seems to me to be a "doesn't matter" bet. All you are doing is increasing your money at risk and reducing the odds against you. But the amount of money you are likely to lose to the house edge doesn't change. If you are a non-minimum bet player, say $10 chip kind of person, then betting the minimum and saving the rest for odds is great. But for minimum bet people like me, the odds don't seem to matter.

Is this analysis wrong? If so, what am I missing?

I understand what you're saying.

Personally, I chalk it up to semantics.

I don't understand why so many people link the two. After all, the PL bet can win or lose before you even get a chance to put odds behind it, so how does it effect the edge?

On the flip side, I DO take the odds, only because I like the idea of placing a bet that has a house edge of zero. I'm just too timid (or maybe it's my short bankroll) to put down max odds. (Unless max is 2X LOL)

If you're trying to minimize losses, you don't play at all.

If you're trying to get the best value for your bet at craps, you play odds.

The logic doesn't necessarily mean that you should bet more than you are able or willing. It just means you may want to bet differently. Say you are at a $10 table and you have $10 to bet. You put it on the pass line and your number comes in, you win $10.

If you were to play a $5 table instead, you can put $5 on the pass line and $5 odds. It's the same $10 bet; but this one will win you $11, $12.50 or $15 instead of just $10.

Odds do matter.

I wouldn't play if I didn't enjoy it. I like craps. I feel it is the most exciting game in Las Vegas. In every other game, with the partial exception of sports book, you and your fellow player win or lose independently. I guess in blackjack if the dealer goes bust everyone wins. But generally in a casino the most us against the house action is at a craps table. That is why the yelling and wooping it up generally comes from there. I just don't want to spend any more than i have to in order to participate.

Quote: FinsRule

If you're trying to minimize losses, you don't play at all.

If you're trying to get the best value for your bet at craps, you play odds.

I would make an additional point about playing odds, to add something to FinsRule quote:
- If you're trying to get the best value for your bet a craps, you play odds within reason.

Increasing exposure has to be considered. Would you mortgage your home to play 100,000 times odds, thinking "what a deal!", only to get slammed with a seven-out? The difference between 1% and 0.5% HE and 1% and 0.000000001% HE is meaningless in a session, but exposing an affordable $50 on the turn of the dice, versus an utterly unaffordable $500,000 on the same roll is huge. Losing a fortune and your ass only to say, "Hey, it's okay, because the HE was essentially zero - I was smart" is not smart play. I can play 3x-4x-5x odds and be happy with it, because my exposure is balanced.

Quote: zeekm

Say you are at a $10 table and you have $10 to bet. You put it on the pass line and your number comes in, you win $10.

If you were to play a $5 table instead, you can put $5 on the pass line and $5 odds. It's the same $10 bet; but this one will win you $11, $12.50 or $15 instead of just $10.

Odds do matter.

Very well stated.

Here's how I describe it:

The first time I ever tried to play craps seriously, I'd bet $10 on the pass line, with $10 odds when someone else was shooting. When it was my turn, I'd make that $25 and $25. After doing that a few times, the player next to me suggested I bet $10 on the pass line, and $40 odds. When it won, and I collected so much more than I had before, it was as if a new world of gambling had been opened.

I actually use a similar philosophy. I bet the pass line and then only bet the odds when the point is 4 or 10. I think of this "system" as betting to maximize excitement. Oh boy!

Since the odds of winning the Powerball Lottery are 173,000,000 to 1 (app) I won't buy a ticket unless the payoff is more than $173,000,000.

Quote: ncfatcat

Since the odds of winning the Powerball Lottery are 173,000,000 to 1 (app) I won't buy a ticket unless the payoff is more than $173,000,000.

That's bad logic because:

- There are thousands of ways to win small prizes that lower the ratio, and

- There is the chance of mutiple winners which will lower the payoff.

Mind you, I don't play it at all...

Quote: ncfatcat

Since the odds of winning the Powerball Lottery are 173,000,000 to 1 (app) I won't buy a ticket unless the payoff is more than $173,000,000.

I'll play it if I am in the mood for a lottery gamble, else not.
To say that winning $100,000,000 is a bad win, but $173,000,000 is a good value win is a bit ridiculous for the one who is the winner - and a ticket is a shot at winning, albeit a small one. Some guy who makes $8 an hour working at a 7-11 hits the One hundred million jackpot will say that it is just as fine as winning $173,000,000. Once the payout become a truly life-changing event, winning the jackpot amount becomes a simple boolean event: A fortune is great - and not winning is not so great.

The effect of HE is greater on small sessions, as playing the odds might mean the difference of leaving ahead $50, versus down $50. Steak versus sandwiches.

Quote: Paigowdan

To say that winning $100,000,000 is a bad win, but $173,000,000 is a good value win is a bit ridiculous for the one who is the winner.

That reminds me of this NY Lotto commercial where a couple sees money falling from the sky, but the husband is reluctant to run out and get some, because it's not that much...

Well you also have to consider the cash vs the annuity payout and the almost 50% Federal and State tax hit (unless you live in a State like TN. FL or DE with no State Income Tax) That is interesting though. What would be a "fair" bet considering the less than jackpot payoffs available?

You're right that the odds "don't matter" in terms of expected loss. However, taking odds reduces the effect of the house edge on total money bet. If you are going to gamble anyway, you should get as much of your action on the "free" bet as possible. That's why large odds multiples are so desirable. You can press your action without increasing your expected loss.

removed
silly

Most players do not look at how much they bet in total, from what I can tell. I've been blogging about this. If you bet the minimum bet, and what limits your betting is how long you can last doing so, by stamina, but then hear about free odds and add this amount, increasing the amount you bet per bet, then the free odds just seem to accentuate the amount a player wins or loses in a certain session. The old expression kicks in: you can lower the HE but not the EV, if the line bet is unchanged.

If, however, a player who was betting $50 on the line changes his bet into smaller line bet, but the same amount after adding his odds, that player has lowered his HE and his EV. [mucho edits]

Quote: odiousgambit

If, however, a player who was betting $50 on the line changes his bet into smaller line bet, but the same amount after adding his odds, that player has lowered his HE and his EV. [mucho edits]

Hey, All good stuff.
It is not always needed to lower the ev but raise the sd without increasing the ev as Sally's sims shows.
That is where the power of the odds bet lies.

Press a $30 Place6 bet, now ev and sd both increase.

Most will say that taking odds in any form does not change the expected loss, that is true,
but it changes the average bet and SD and there lies the secret to breaking even or winning per session played.

It is somewhat surprising at the very high bust rates Player B shows in Sally's sim data
and still lost less than Player A making no odds bet, with a lower average bet.

Many craps players do not buy-in for $100 and just make one bet. odds or no odds.
The $20 and $40 buyers fit that bill.

Quote: downtowner

But for minimum bet people like me, the odds don't seem to matter.

Yep. I mean, if you're going to only bet the minimum, then you can't bet the odds anyway, so why worry about it? I see people betting $5 on the line with no odds. Usually it's the girlfriend or wife of the guy betting huge amounts, and they just want to do something to pass the time. But sure, if you only want to play the minimum, then the odds are going to be a bet you don't even make.

On the other hand, once you decide to bet more, then the odds should come into play, which is what everyone here will agree with. If you are only going to bet $5, then $5 on the line is what you do. If you move up to $10, then don't bet $10 on the line. Bet $5 on the line, with $5 in odds. When you're willing to risk the oh so dizzying heights of $25, it's $5 on the line, with $20 in odds. (Assuming you can do so.)

It's always very strange to see a "minimum bet" person at the craps table. They can't take advantage of the odds, and they can't do additional bets such as come bets and things like that. However, if that's what you want to do, go for it!

Quote: konceptum

Yep. I mean, if you're going to only bet the minimum, then you can't bet the odds anyway, so why worry about it?

What?
One can always bet the odds unless they have no more money left.

If you bet the minimum, one can always and should always make a minimum odds bet unless you have no bankroll left.
It results in you losing less bankroll per session played.
When you win, you win more with the SAME bankroll at risk of ruin.

Craps players play way more than one session in their lifetime.
Sally says "Start taking at least minimum odds"

My simulation results are from 30,000,000 to 100,000,000 total bets.
No one in their lifetime can ever make this many bets, but it still proves that those who use the excuse " I will lose more"
by betting more on the odds than the minimun amount are just not correct in their thinking.
In other words, they are wrong.

Who buys in for $5, just enough for one $5 bet?
I think no one.

That is not what the results from sim data says.

It says, with a small bankroll - 20 units - as the example, when you make a pass line bet you should always take at least minimum odds.
There is no valid excuse, unless you want to play the longest and do not care to lose the least of your bankroll,
to ever NOT take odds.

If you buy-in for $40, you make a $5 pass and when it is time for the odds bet, always bet $5 odds. ($6 on the 5 and 9)

I even extended my data to show a 2X odds player, yes with the same 20 unit bankroll,
busting the bankroll over 50% of the time, but still lost LESS, on average over all the sessions played,
than both the No odds player and the 1X odds player.

Why?
A 0% HE bet.
Bet $10 odds and win either $12, $15 or $20.
The house keeps none of it. No short-changing going on.
It is a fair bet.

Too bad many will not believe any results shown between no odds and minimun odds.
They will be stuck in the false belief that betting more = losing more.
It makes for more money won by the casino and MORE money lost by the player by not taking any odds.

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

If you buy-in for $40, you make a $5 pass and when it is time for the odds bet, always bet $5 odds. ($6 on the 5 and 9)

Those that buy-in for $40 and bet $5 on the pass, most times never take odds, instead they will place $6 on the 6 if the point is 8, etc.
They know their bankroll is too small.

An outside point will never get odds but the Place 6 and 8 always get $6.
Now $17 at risk from a $40 buy-in.

They can never be shown that just adding $5 to the pass line odds will make them lose less money, their thinking is their place bets will make them win more money because of more numbers covered. And in many sessions (less than 50%) this will be true.

It is the can lead a horse to water, but after that, good luck!

That Player C you added with 2X odds is very surprising data with the smallest bankroll lost while busting over 50% of the sessions played.
Is that the total from all the bets made?
The total ev between all 3 players should still be the same

Enjoy!

Quote: guido111

They know their bankroll is too small.

I think Sally can be criticized for ignoring bankroll requirements for anyone playing the free odds. [edit]

Quote: guido111

That Player C you added with 2X odds is very surprising data with the smallest bankroll lost while busting over 50% of the sessions played.
Is that the total from all the bets made?
The total ev between all 3 players should still be the same

I caught my thought!
The ev is not the same between all players because the odds takers make less pass line bets total.
They are busting out too often!
But when they win, they win big.

Their handle is smaller so less is subject to the house edge.
Got it.
The Wizard has pointed that out many, many times.

Sally, I see you added a 10X odds bettor.
$5 with $50 odds with a $100 buy-in losses less than all the other players and has an 80% bust rate.
I have to sim that one myself.

Quote: mustangsally

What?
One can always bet the odds unless they have no more money left.

The OP wasn't based on what one CAN do, it was based on what the OP WANTS to do. He clearly stated he only wanted to bet the table minimum. If the table minimum is $5, he only wants to bet $5. Yes, the rest of us all know that we would gladly take as much odds as possible. But, if you're only going to risk $5, and nothing more, then clearly the odds bet has no role in the bettor's play.

I take that back. The BEST bet the player could make, if they are only willing to risk $5 at a time, would be to put that $5 on someone else's odds bet.

I don't think I've ever made a line or come bet without putting at least some odds behind it. I've played a ton of different methods but they all involve a combination of P/C w/ odds or DP/DC with odds.

Even 1x odds will lower the house edge substantially. The lowliest piker can afford that.

Do players and Don't players do not want the same outcome. Each win or loses independently also. Sports books wagers have people rooting for different outcomes, as well