excounter
excounter
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April 17th, 2011 at 2:10:14 PM permalink
Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.
benbakdoff
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April 17th, 2011 at 4:15:04 PM permalink
Quote: excounter

Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.



I refuse to call that blackjack. The 6/5 payout adds 1.4% to the house edge. A 20-1 spread seems to be in the ballpark. Wonging would be in order as well, but there goes your hands per hour. Be sure to take even money every time if allowed- it may not be. It doesn't seem that beatable to me, but I've learned to say never say never.

I've never played this game, so maybe someone who has can comment. Surely you can find a shoe game with better odds.
pacomartin
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April 17th, 2011 at 9:54:35 PM permalink
Quote: excounter

Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.



I don't see how you can answer that question in the abstract. For instance if you were playing single deck with player permitted to double after split, that game would have a player advantage of 0.184 % using a composition dependent player strategy with the normal 3:2 payout . I would think if you were playing this game with a one on one and were unmolested in your how you bet, and you had 90% penetration you could overcome the loss of 1.39% for changing the blackjack payout to 6:5.

But for a normal casino game, you would be hard pressed to overcome that 1.39%.
P90
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April 17th, 2011 at 10:26:08 PM permalink
Quote: excounter

Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.


Not even close. 8-1 is barely enough to beat a proper 3:2 shoe game with mediocre rules and cover.

For 6:5 you'd need to wong in only in the best of situations for a hand or two and out again, while keeping a multi-parameter count (at least separate A and T).
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FleaStiff
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April 18th, 2011 at 2:15:23 AM permalink
One of the first signs dealers and floors note is Bet Spreading. Any transition from a sheep about to be shorn to a sheep with even the slightest wolfish grin is noted in many places. Oh sure, there will be some casinos where vigilance is a bit relaxed but I believe SouthPoint ejected three men who on an early morning game of blackjack went from from Red to Green. Now this was not Red to Black mind you, it was simply Red to Green.

So I don't know about the mathematics involved but I think the practicalities involved is simply that it can't be done. Sure places like SouthPoint are the famed "Sweat the Money" joints and sure some places get a bit lax from time to time but in reality no one can do a very large spread. Now could you achieve a very large spread through Team Play? (Ploppy plays his darned two red chips with no variation at all but the moment he gives some secret signal slightly sloshed large bettor whose been table hopping suddenly materializes and takes advantage of a high count). The surveillance dept. and the dealers and pit crew are all supposed to remain ignorant throughout this activity. So it comes down to even if the math does work out (and I have no idea if it does or not) the practical reality is that you are going to be in a situation where you had better gulp those free drinks 'cause you ain't a gonna be sitting there for long! Whether it would be "escorted out" or "Play anything you want to Gentlemen, but your BlackJack skills are just too strong for us" I don't know. That is the casino's decision and might vary with the pit boss's mood but one thing is certain. If the SouthPoint comes down on a guy going from Red to Green before his free coffee is half gone, other places are going to come down on bet spreaders by the end of his second cup. So I would sum it up as "it don't matter 'bout the math, its the realities of bet spreading that makes it a no go".
P90
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April 18th, 2011 at 3:23:06 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Now could you achieve a very large spread through Team Play? (Ploppy plays his darned two red chips with no variation at all but the moment he gives some secret signal slightly sloshed large bettor whose been table hopping suddenly materializes and takes advantage of a high count).


"No mid-shoe entry".

Modern counters, except for those times they find a safe game, have to use very short sessions and play around with the bet differently than the strategy suggest. A common tactic is to move only based on wins and losses, a more difficult option is to shift the bet all the time, emulating a system player. Hole-carding is a mainstream AP skill today too.
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FleaStiff
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April 18th, 2011 at 5:25:41 AM permalink
Quote: P90

"No mid-shoe entry".

Is this actually enforced? I've seen signs posted even at Baccarat tables but it still happens. At my local Happy Wampum, after the baccarat dealer asked if I minded someone joining in (I never object), the newly arriving couple paid for my then arriving drink. I've always assumed these No Mid Shoe Entry signs were scare tactics that they enforced only when they actually had suspicions or didn't like some player for some reason.

>a more difficult option is to shift the bet all the time, emulating a system player.
I would assume this really doesn't fool an experienced dealer or floorperson one bit. No matter how complex the "system" might be and no matter how much a player is hopping all over on the amount of his bets, the house mentally classifies it as "high" or "low" and the house then correlates the bettor's action to the count.

>Hole-carding is a mainstream AP skill today too.
Do dealers still make inadvertent revelations of the down card? I mean that was old even in that Casino movie. Surely even these small handed and narrow fingered Asian dealers don't reveal cards all that often.
P90
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April 18th, 2011 at 12:06:05 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Is this actually enforced?


If they're sweating the money and have the slightest suspicion? These signs aren't there for no reason, although they probably indeed scare off a lot more ordinary newcomer players than APs who know the score.


Quote: FleaStiff

I would assume this really doesn't fool an experienced dealer or floorperson one bit. No matter how complex the "system" might be and no matter how much a player is hopping all over on the amount of his bets, the house mentally classifies it as "high" or "low" and the house then correlates the bettor's action to the count.


Strictly speaking, unless there's Mindplay or you've been singled out for surveillance, the house isn't really keeping count. They just see if you're changing your bet or making trademark counter plays (split tens). A total sweat-the-money joint might ban anyone who spreads a lot, they might even be afraid of martingalers. The best critters might notice you're covering your count. But in the middle, if you get yourself chalked down as any particular type (rather than avoid being chalked down as anyone), you can greatly extend the playing time.


Quote: FleaStiff

Do dealers still make inadvertent revelations of the down card? I mean that was old even in that Casino movie. Surely even these small handed and narrow fingered Asian dealers don't reveal cards all that often.


Rarely. But if you want to make money, you have to look own for ones that do, and hang at their tables as long as you can. Counting alone just isn't seriously viable today as an AP technique, it has to be supplemented by grasping at any advantage presented.
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excounter
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April 18th, 2011 at 12:42:47 PM permalink
Quote: excounter

Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.



Here are the house rules for that single deck 6-5 game, double after split, split any pair up to four times, aces only once, dealer hits soft 17.
buzzpaff
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April 18th, 2011 at 12:51:49 PM permalink
How can anyone think you can beat 6-5 BJ or that the movie "21" was even remotely factual? The best a counter can expect is to have a 1.5% edge with perfect play. This against a game with house edge of 0.40 % and a spread of 8 to 1. The count will be positive about a third of the time, neutral a third of the time, negative a third. How big would your spread have to be to overcome that additional 1 % HE in 6-5 BJ ? 20 to 1 seems low!!!
See any big betters playing 6-5 BJ ??? that's your real answer. Shades of Ken Uston trying to convince AC casino bosses that shoe games were better for the counter because a positive count lasted longer. He was drowned out by the stampede of counters to a SD table that just opened for business.
buzzpaff
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April 18th, 2011 at 12:53:34 PM permalink
" They just see if you're changing your bet or making trademark counter plays (split tens). " ROFLMAO !
lucky13
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April 18th, 2011 at 1:01:02 PM permalink
You would need a huge spread AND 70%+ penetration. Single Deck games usually shuffle after every 1-2 hands at a full/nearly full table, and 3-4 hands with only 1/2 players. Can it be done. Theoretically. In reality, the spread alone would get you backed off.
buzzpaff
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April 18th, 2011 at 1:02:28 PM permalink
Quote: lucky13

You would need a huge spread AND 70%+ penetration. Single Deck games usually shuffle after every 1-2 hands at a full/nearly full table, and 3-4 hands with only 1/2 players. Can it be done. Theoretically. In reality, the spread alone would get you backed off.



Theoretically a Martingale Progression works two. Just don't split them 10's and you can fool them LOL
lucky13
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April 18th, 2011 at 1:07:04 PM permalink
I'm certainly not recommending counting in to a 6/5 game, especially when there are good Double Deck games available with HA under 0.40%.
pacomartin
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April 21st, 2011 at 7:06:46 AM permalink
Quote: excounter

Here are the house rules for that single deck 6-5 game, double after split, split any pair up to four times, aces only once, dealer hits soft 17.



I think this is a good question, because I think your real question is:

I know that mathematically I am better off with normal rules, but the casinos will be backing off card counters. If I play a single deck game with 6-5 the casino is not looking for card counters. So if I use a large enough spread unmolested by the pit boss can I beat the game?

In general the advantages of this game:
Double After Split allowed as opposed to not allowed: 0.14%
Split permitted up to 4 hands as opposed to up to 2 hands: 0.10%
Dealer hits a soft hand as opposed to stand: -0.22%
Blackjack pays 6 to 5 as opposed to 3 to 2: -1.39%
Single deck as opposed to 8 decks: +0.48%

So the disadvantages of a 6:5 (-1.39%) is usually so large that it overshadows any advantage rules they might give you.

My guess is no with the rules given, however if you could find a single deck game with 6:5 with a few more player advantage rules (like standing on S17, drawing to split aces, surrender) it may be beatable under the assumption that you can use a large spread and the pit boss leaves you alone.
Bowler377
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December 8th, 2023 at 6:10:06 PM permalink
South Point has famously become known as Sweat Point. Some casinos are total sweat joints, that will kick you out for winning at any casino game, and are scared to death that somebody will win a bet or get lucky short term. Even MGM Grand made the big mistake of sweating the money, when Kerry Packer got lucky and crushed them short term. Bellagio had more patience than MGM, and sure enough the Bellagio determined that Kerry Packer is one of the best things that ever happened to them.
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