RollThePoint
RollThePoint
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August 17th, 2022 at 6:49:23 AM permalink
Saw this on "Color Up" YouTube channel yesterday titled, "Go to Winning Craps Strategy". Original credit goes to "Crappy the Craps Man" who also has a video, title, "My go to winning craps strategy Great for bankroll recovery"

Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".

This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.

Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
Last edited by: RollThePoint on Aug 17, 2022
unJon
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August 17th, 2022 at 2:15:38 PM permalink
Be an interesting RoR calculation given that two bets are correlated and two are anti correlated.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
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August 17th, 2022 at 4:58:27 PM permalink
playing the dark side and the rightside simultaneously is recognized by everyone as idiotic, unless you play the free odds on one side of that.

This seems to be staggering it one after the other, to get different results ... then going further and staggering some more. It just is basic hedging overall, disguised to look like something brilliant, I have to think.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
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August 17th, 2022 at 5:03:57 PM permalink
Itís sorta hedging in the sense there is negative correlation show variance will be reduced. But in theory you could hit both sides.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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August 17th, 2022 at 5:16:32 PM permalink
]Those color up ďstrategyĒ videos are well made but take them with a grain of salt

There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money

2) Don't play. Guaranteed to break even. Zero variance

3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
Itís all about making that GTA
RollThePoint
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August 17th, 2022 at 5:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2


3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
link to original post



I usually only play Pass + Odds occasionally placing the 6 & 8 and/or betting the Field for fun if I'm up big. Just curious about the math on this one. It's definitely a win small/lose small strategy, as with most hedge bets. It looks like a good way to play when not in the mood for too must risk but want to have some fun at the craps table. I'm personally thinking of it as a way to play long and get more comps while waiting on the wife to finish losing her bankroll on the slots... I did not know betting Odds did not count toward comps until I watched his video.
Last edited by: RollThePoint on Aug 17, 2022
unJon
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August 17th, 2022 at 7:12:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

]Those color up ďstrategyĒ videos are well made but take them with a grain of salt

There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money

2) Don't play. Guaranteed to break even. Zero variance

3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
link to original post



Ok but you could do 3) with full odds. DP two comes and one donít come. All full odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
pwcrabb
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RollThePoint
August 17th, 2022 at 8:31:07 PM permalink
Wait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.

Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
ChumpChange
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August 17th, 2022 at 9:33:02 PM permalink
I saw a comment in the video that they use DP, DC, Come1, & Come 2. On Bubble Craps I get ornery as a lone shooter on a losing streak and I've tried betting DP & DC then trying to throw a 7-out. If I lost a Don't, I'd switch sides to PL or Come for that shooter turn. This would move my Do side bets forward to a couple of the first 4 bets. If the 7-out happens on the 3rd roll, I'd win 3 units; if I roll the 7-out on the 4th roll, I'd win 2 units (provided no numbers are repeating and no horn numbers). But once I get 4 numbers covered, 2 Don'ts & 2 Do's, I get really confused with my dice influencing, and things go off the rails a bit. Trying to 7-out on the 3rd & 4th rolls is a win.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Aug 17, 2022
Ace2
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August 17th, 2022 at 11:02:52 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Wait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.

Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
link to original post

Boredom? Low variance???

Flat betting a 3-point Molly with 3-4-5 odds has a variance of 88. Excluding side/exotic bets, what other table game bet even comes close to that? For comparison purposes, the variance of betting a single roulette number (paying 35 to 1) is 33.
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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August 17th, 2022 at 11:27:26 PM permalink
Hmmm, should I double my $15 PL with odds only bet or split it up into $15 PL & $15 Come with odds? Waiting 20 rolls for a 10 to make the PL point indicates I should split it up.
RollThePoint
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August 18th, 2022 at 4:09:13 AM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Wait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.

Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
link to original post



LOL, exactly! I am thinking about this as the "Wait for the Wife" strategy.
unJon
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August 18th, 2022 at 4:20:44 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: pwcrabb

Wait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.

Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
link to original post

Boredom? Low variance???

Flat betting a 3-point Molly with 3-4-5 odds has a variance of 88. Excluding side/exotic bets, what other table game bet even comes close to that? For comparison purposes, the variance of betting a single roulette number (paying 35 to 1) is 33.
link to original post



He means no odds and no come I think.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
teliot
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unJoncamapl
August 18th, 2022 at 5:26:30 AM permalink
Quote: RollThePoint

Saw this on "Color Up" YouTube channel yesterday titled, "Go to Winning Craps Strategy". Original credit goes to "Crappy the Craps Man" who also has a video, title, "My go to winning craps strategy Great for bankroll recovery"

Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".

This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.

Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
link to original post

The RoR is 100%.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
tuttigym
tuttigym
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August 18th, 2022 at 8:52:17 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: RollThePoint

Saw this on "Color Up" YouTube channel yesterday titled, "Go to Winning Craps Strategy". Original credit goes to "Crappy the Craps Man" who also has a video, title, "My go to winning craps strategy Great for bankroll recovery"

Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".

This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.

Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
link to original post

The RoR is 100%.
link to original post


With a $1,000 buy in bank roll on a $15 table, how long would that take or, on average, how many hands?

tuttigym
ChumpChange
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August 18th, 2022 at 9:52:39 AM permalink
It could last an hour, 20 hours, or 100 hours. It all depends on your luck.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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August 18th, 2022 at 10:41:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies


Wrong again; one needs to expand their craps consciousness and embrace the probabilities rather than the expectations.

tuttigym
Ace2
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camapl
August 18th, 2022 at 10:59:52 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies


Wrong again; one needs to expand their craps consciousness and embrace the probabilities rather than the expectations.

tuttigym
link to original post

I donít think Iíve ever been right in your book

You cannot separate probabilities from expectations. Work out all the probabilities and that IS your expectation. Play long enough and your results will equal expectations.

Expanding your consciousness, doing yoga and meditation wonít change the math
Itís all about making that GTA
pwcrabb
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RollThePoint
August 18th, 2022 at 12:32:25 PM permalink
Wait For The Wife strategy is a socializing timekiller that will probably lose but that has minimal risk of significant loss. Play only Bright Side and Dark Side Flat Bets in any sequence and any frequency as whimsy dictates. Keep all Bets constant size. Two percent of Buy-in is a good size.

Neither Take odds nor Lay Odds. Line Bets with no Odds are said to be "Barefoot." Perhaps Come Bets with no Odds are either Barefoot or Bareback.

Standard Deviation of Pass is 0.999900005 and Variance is 0.999800020.

Standard Deviation of Don't Pass is 0.999907020 and Variance is 0.999814049

Standard Deviation will of course increase with the number of Bets overall but not nearly as quickly as that number. Relax, drink, socialize.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Ace2
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August 18th, 2022 at 12:49:16 PM permalink
Bet size of two percent of buy-in. You'll be able to wait for the wife for a long, long time.
Itís all about making that GTA
Vegasrider
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August 18th, 2022 at 12:58:06 PM permalink
I often watch the YouTube videoís posted by Color Up. The guy actually lives and plays here in Reno but I have never seen him only because I donít play at the GSR. Most of the videos are simulations in strategies sent in by viewers. I have not used any of their strategies except my own.

I feel itís important to keep track of the stats during your session . What numbers has rolled, how many rolls W/O a 7, how many 7 outs, how many points each shooter has rolled or not, etc. itís something that I do while I play the Donít and lay the 6X odds. I only play one number, Iím the favorite to win but if I play more than one number, I am no longer the favorite so it just doesnít make any sense to play any additional numbers before a 7 out. I love the feeling of everyone losing and Iím the only one Winning. Itís weird I know but Iím a competitive person so that must be the reasoning.
RollThePoint
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August 18th, 2022 at 3:50:50 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Wait For The Wife strategy is a socializing timekiller that will probably lose but that has minimal risk of significant loss. Play only Bright Side and Dark Side Flat Bets in any sequence and any frequency as whimsy dictates. Keep all Bets constant size. Two percent of Buy-in is a good size.

Neither Take odds nor Lay Odds. Line Bets with no Odds are said to be "Barefoot." Perhaps Come Bets with no Odds are either Barefoot or Bareback.

Standard Deviation of Pass is 0.999900005 and Variance is 0.999800020.

Standard Deviation of Don't Pass is 0.999907020 and Variance is 0.999814049

Standard Deviation will of course increase with the number of Bets overall but not nearly as quickly as that number. Relax, drink, socialize.
link to original post



I'm curious if there is anything behind the order of Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come in the 4 bets of Crappy's strategy. Seems unlikely, but I'm wondering if the order those bets are made actually has any effect on the math/stats. Like let's say you just staggered them, Pass, Don't Come, Come, and Don't Come...would it change anything? I mean optimally if all 4 bets are set (no matter how you get there), the best arrangement would be to have point be 4 & 10 for the Don't Pass and Don't Come bets; and point on 6 & 8 on the the Come bets. Then you are in a good position to win all 4.
ChumpChange
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August 18th, 2022 at 3:56:21 PM permalink
If your DP bet is for a DI set for 4 or 10 or even horn numbers, you're less likely to hit a 7 on the come-out but you'll still have a 10 to 2 advantage against the 11.
Dieter
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Dieter
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August 18th, 2022 at 6:53:44 PM permalink
Quote: RollThePoint

I'm curious if there is anything behind the order of Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come in the 4 bets of Crappy's strategy. Seems unlikely, but I'm wondering if the order those bets are made actually has any effect on the math/stats. Like let's say you just staggered them, Pass, Don't Come, Come, and Don't Come...would it change anything?
link to original post



Don't Pass, Come should both win on a point-7out.
Pass, Don't Come, not so much.

I think the scheme presupposes that the table will be "choppy" for the next few rolls.
If you can predict the future...
The rest of this sentiment is left as an exercise for the clairvoyant reader.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Ace2
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August 18th, 2022 at 7:28:02 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider


I feel itís important to keep track of the stats during your session . What numbers has rolled, how many rolls W/O a 7, how many 7 outs, how many points each shooter has rolled or not, etc.

What do you do with those stats ?
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
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August 18th, 2022 at 7:32:13 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

I only play one number, Iím the favorite to win but if I play more than one number, I am no longer the favorite so it just doesnít make any sense to play any additional numbers before a 7 out.

I love the feeling of everyone losing and Iím the only one Winning. Itís weird I know but Iím a competitive person so that must be the reasoning.
link to original post

You can lay all six numbers and youíre still the favorite for every individual number

Conversely, when you play the donít side youíre generally the only one losing while everyone else is winning. Head or tails, it all evens out
Itís all about making that GTA
pwcrabb
pwcrabb 
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August 18th, 2022 at 8:33:04 PM permalink
Regarding any distinction for the sequence Don't, Do, Do, Don't:

There is no discernable distinction. Your hero merely took his own idiosyncratic shot. Make up your own story. You may risk any number of bets of any of the four types in any sequence. Expect to lose at a rate of one bet for every 70 bets made. Possible deviations from that expectation increase as the number of bets increases, but not horribly.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Vegasrider
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August 19th, 2022 at 6:41:45 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: Vegasrider

I only play one number, Iím the favorite to win but if I play more than one number, I am no longer the favorite so it just doesnít make any sense to play any additional numbers before a 7 out.

I love the feeling of everyone losing and Iím the only one Winning. Itís weird I know but Iím a competitive person so that must be the reasoning.
link to original post

You can lay all six numbers and youíre still the favorite for every individual number

Conversely, when you play the donít side youíre generally the only one losing while everyone else is winning. Head or tails, it all evens out
link to original post



I disagree on laying all six numbers and still be the favorite. If I did, there would be 24 combinations that would result in a loss, vs my six. Plus factoring in the DC trying to establish each number. Keeping track of the rolls, numbers etc allows me to have a visual snapshot on how the game has progressed. Hot or cold. The only time I will have a losing session is if someone rolls 5 points, itís very difficult to recover from that as a DC based on my betting. The amount bet will vary whether a point was hit or the number of points were rolled.

Warning the swings are huge, my normal buy is 2k.
odiousgambit
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August 19th, 2022 at 7:22:39 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

[snip]

Don't Pass, Come should both win on a point-7out.
Pass, Don't Come, not so much.

link to original post

on the other hand pass, DC sequence shines with 7-winner, then point-set

maybe one or the other helps preserve the bankroll, I'm not sure. It would seem to be true that if it does, it has to be a hedging effect. For me, the main reason to avoid hedging is that it favors the house, not in HE but in lowering variance in a negative expectation game. A player should only want to lower variance in a +EV situation, normally. Now, I will admit Craps played in the best way is really high in variance and it can be too much. The only thing is, there are better ways to lower it than hedging.

Talk about preserving the bankroll while waiting for the wife and all that is not a discussion worth having. If I did that I think I'd just be quiet about it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dieter
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August 19th, 2022 at 9:19:39 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Dieter

[snip]

Don't Pass, Come should both win on a point-7out.
Pass, Don't Come, not so much.

link to original post

on the other hand pass, DC sequence shines with 7-winner, then point-set

link to original post



(snip!)

I can only imagine that a truly skilled dice predictor will get it right about half the time (and feel like a hero), and just barely miss the rest of the time (and second guess their play).

In any case, best of luck. I've certainly seen worse schemes.
May the cards fall in your favor.
tuttigym
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August 19th, 2022 at 10:50:28 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money


Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.

Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.

Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.

tuttigym
unJon
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August 19th, 2022 at 12:31:56 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money


Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.

Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.

Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.

tuttigym
link to original post



Do you understand how leverage and debt work?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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August 19th, 2022 at 2:25:09 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money


Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.

Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.

Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.

tuttigym
link to original post



Do you understand how leverage and debt work?
link to original post


Yes, what's the next question.

tuttigym
Vegasrider
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pwcrabb
August 19th, 2022 at 5:05:20 PM permalink
Anyone old enough on this forum to remember Archie winning millions playing craps at Binions and they ran out of chips?
Ace2
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pwcrabb
August 19th, 2022 at 7:42:51 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money


Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.

Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.

Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.

tuttigym
link to original post

Not even worth a response
Itís all about making that GTA
tuttigym
tuttigym
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August 20th, 2022 at 6:55:57 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2


There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money


Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.

Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.

Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.

tuttigym
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Not even worth a response
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But somehow you did.

tuttigym

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