RollThePoint
RollThePoint
Joined: Aug 17, 2022
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August 17th, 2022 at 6:49:23 AM permalink
Saw this on "Color Up" YouTube channel yesterday titled, "Go to Winning Craps Strategy". Original credit goes to "Crappy the Craps Man" who also has a video, title, "My go to winning craps strategy Great for bankroll recovery"

Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".

This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.

Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
Last edited by: RollThePoint on Aug 17, 2022
unJon
unJon
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August 17th, 2022 at 2:15:38 PM permalink
Be an interesting RoR calculation given that two bets are correlated and two are anti correlated.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 17th, 2022 at 4:58:27 PM permalink
playing the dark side and the rightside simultaneously is recognized by everyone as idiotic, unless you play the free odds on one side of that.

This seems to be staggering it one after the other, to get different results ... then going further and staggering some more. It just is basic hedging overall, disguised to look like something brilliant, I have to think.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
unJon
unJon
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August 17th, 2022 at 5:03:57 PM permalink
It’s sorta hedging in the sense there is negative correlation show variance will be reduced. But in theory you could hit both sides.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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August 17th, 2022 at 5:16:32 PM permalink
]Those color up “strategy” videos are well made but take them with a grain of salt

There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money

2) Don't play. Guaranteed to break even. Zero variance

3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
It’s all about making that GTA
RollThePoint
RollThePoint
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August 17th, 2022 at 5:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2


3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
link to original post



I usually only play Pass + Odds occasionally placing the 6 & 8 and/or betting the Field for fun if I'm up big. Just curious about the math on this one. It's definitely a win small/lose small strategy, as with most hedge bets. It looks like a good way to play when not in the mood for too must risk but want to have some fun at the craps table. I'm personally thinking of it as a way to play long and get more comps while waiting on the wife to finish losing her bankroll on the slots... I did not know betting Odds did not count toward comps until I watched his video.
Last edited by: RollThePoint on Aug 17, 2022
unJon
unJon
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August 17th, 2022 at 7:12:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

]Those color up “strategy” videos are well made but take them with a grain of salt

There are only three craps strategies

1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money

2) Don't play. Guaranteed to break even. Zero variance

3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
link to original post



Ok but you could do 3) with full odds. DP two comes and one don’t come. All full odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
RollThePoint
August 17th, 2022 at 8:31:07 PM permalink
Wait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.

Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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August 17th, 2022 at 9:33:02 PM permalink
I saw a comment in the video that they use DP, DC, Come1, & Come 2. On Bubble Craps I get ornery as a lone shooter on a losing streak and I've tried betting DP & DC then trying to throw a 7-out. If I lost a Don't, I'd switch sides to PL or Come for that shooter turn. This would move my Do side bets forward to a couple of the first 4 bets. If the 7-out happens on the 3rd roll, I'd win 3 units; if I roll the 7-out on the 4th roll, I'd win 2 units (provided no numbers are repeating and no horn numbers). But once I get 4 numbers covered, 2 Don'ts & 2 Do's, I get really confused with my dice influencing, and things go off the rails a bit. Trying to 7-out on the 3rd & 4th rolls is a win.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Aug 17, 2022
Ace2
Ace2
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August 17th, 2022 at 11:02:52 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Wait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.

Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
link to original post

Boredom? Low variance???

Flat betting a 3-point Molly with 3-4-5 odds has a variance of 88. Excluding side/exotic bets, what other table game bet even comes close to that? For comparison purposes, the variance of betting a single roulette number (paying 35 to 1) is 33.
It’s all about making that GTA

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