Leaving bets ON during come-out
I love shooting the dice when I'm playing DP. Sometimes other bettors just can't believe I am "betting against myself"...whatever that means? The irony is that DP is actually a slightly better bet than pass in terms of house edge.Quote: ChumpChangeI notice DP players tend to pass the dice so they don't piss off the table by throwing "craps 3" 4 times on the come-out.
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Quote: ChumpChangeI notice DP players tend to pass the dice so they don't piss off the table by throwing "craps 3" 4 times on the come-out.
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I have no problem with Dont players shooting.
If you bet correctly you'll make money when they throw a 3.
I bet $25 on the passline with a $5 horn high ace deuce. I'll win $2 on each 3.
At a $15 table I'll have $3 on any craps. Roll a 3 and I make a $6 profit.
On a $10 table it's $2 any craps.
Besides that I'm humored that when dont players get the dice they immediately switch to right way players... thinking they'll have the roll of a lifetime
But my favorite dont players are two young men who frequently visit Red Rock. They play and shoot from the dont. These kids make me money just about every time they shoot making numbers and points. They leave busted every time. Why they dont switch to the right side when they shoot amazes me?
Play enough and you see everything. I'll emphasize that for the readers: play enough and you see everything.
I doubt many don’t players are that superstitious/dumbQuote: AlanMendelson[
Besides that I'm humored that when dont players get the dice they immediately switch to right way players... thinking they'll have the roll of a lifetime
Quote: Ace2I doubt many don’t players are that superstitious/dumbQuote: AlanMendelson[
Besides that I'm humored that when dont players get the dice they immediately switch to right way players... thinking they'll have the roll of a lifetime
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Why dont you go to a casino and report back.
Quote: UP84
1. Define "lifetime."
More than 25 girlfriends ago, which for some members of this forum would be over two dozen lifetimes.
25 girlfriends and you survived? Remarkable but not very credible.
Quote: UP842. Average table minimum?
21. But over in Macau I definitely saw some teenagers at the tables.
So, you were old enough to fly alone w/o adult accompaniment?
Quote: UP843. "lifetime" total estimated wagers?
A lot.
Glad to know the complete accuracy of your math.
Quote: UP844. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
Well to be honest once, in July 1999, for thrills I put $25 on the hard 10 just to see what it feels like to be a sucker.
Wagering on the hard 8 must create heart palpitations and arrhythmia; best not do that or have the EMT's standing by.
tuttigym
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Quote: Ace2Years ago I did something similar. I placed the 5 onceQuote: UP84
4. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
Well to be honest once, in July 1999, for thrills I put $25 on the hard 10 just to see what it feels like to be a sucker.
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So, the point was 5 too wasn't it?
tuttigym
Not credible? I'm definitely still alive.Quote: tuttigymQuote: UP84
1. Define "lifetime."
More than 25 girlfriends ago, which for some members of this forum would be over two dozen lifetimes.
25 girlfriends and you survived? Remarkable but not very credible.
tuttigym
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I've kept good records on my bankroll ups and downs playing Craps, and how many gambling trips I've taken [it's always a trip]. I haven't kept an exact record of how many sessions that's been, but I can make a good educated guess about that as well as what kind of bets [almost exclusively line bets with odds], how long a session is and so on ... but of course overall it's just an idea. In particular I don't know how much tipping dealers cost me exactly, which I always factored. That could be as much as half of the losses from what I can tell, and yes overall I've paid for that entertainment. I've included travel expense against my bankroll if I traveled just to gamble, and not included it if traveling for vacation or to meet friends. Some of the gambling was Video Poker and Blackjack. Consistently, I've aimed for bets that have a house edge under 1%. Some of the VP was not, I suppose. Other exceptions are almost non-existent.
The overall amount I've wagered on Craps has to be over $500,000 over the years [since 2003]. I think it is well under $1 mill though .. shocking enough I suppose. A typical 2 hr session meant 100 bets on average, I'd say, at $40 average ... a little bit of guessing here, but that's $4000 wagered per session. It adds up. Taking my total losses [accurate], including tips, other games!, and travel expenses and putting it all against Craps wagering only, it's a bit over 1% and deducting tips, travel, other game losses [all of which is a guess] a good bit under 1%. Perhaps if I could really subtract all that other accurately it would be under 0.50%. for Craps.
So, for whatever that exercise is worth.
I've tried many other strategies at home on WinCraps and software and I seem to get huge beginner's luck followed by the coldest table known to AI. So whatever strategy I bring to Bubble Craps or an actual table will have to match up with my luck with the dice to pay off.
I just got back from a two-hour session at a local casino…and I think I saw your there.Quote: AlanMendelson
Why dont you go to a casino and report back.
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So this guy on the other side of the table rolls one die off the table. It lands just a few feet away from me and I politely go to retrieve it, but as I reach down I hear someone yelling “no, no, no!”. The shooter had run over to pick up the die like a football player diving on a fumble.
I’ve retrieved many a die before but this was a first. I just grinned at the crazy, superstitious fellow. Was it you? Or possibly tuttigym ?
The only other notable event was when a disheveled and possibly drunk guy joined the table and bet $250 plus 6x odds on DP, losing in a few rolls and then left. I felt sorry for him…he looked like he had a bad gambling addiction
Quote: Ace2I just got back from a two-hour session at a local casino…and I think I saw your there.
So this guy on the other side of the table rolls one die off the table. It lands just a few feet away from me and I politely go to retrieve it, but as I reach down I hear someone yelling “no, no, no!”. The shooter had run over to pick up the die like a football player diving on a fumble.
I’ve retrieved many a die before but this was a first. I just grinned at the crazy, superstitious fellow. Was it you? Or possibly tuttigym ?
The only other notable event was when a disheveled and possibly drunk guy joined the table and bet $250 plus 6x odds on DP, losing in a few rolls and then left. I felt sorry for him
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Couldn't be me; can't run; I am blind, and in a wheelchair. BTW which casino? I am amazed that you can feel anything but personal superiority.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2I just got back from a two-hour session at a local casino…and I think I saw your there.Quote: AlanMendelson
Why dont you go to a casino and report back.
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So this guy on the other side of the table rolls one die off the table. It lands just a few feet away from me and I politely go to retrieve it, but as I reach down I hear someone yelling “no, no, no!”. The shooter had run over to pick up the die like a football player diving on a fumble.
I’ve retrieved many a die before but this was a first. I just grinned at the crazy, superstitious fellow. Was it you? Or possibly tuttigym ?
The only other notable event was when a disheveled and possibly drunk guy joined the table and bet $250 plus 6x odds on DP, losing in a few rolls and then left. I felt sorry for him
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No, you didn't see me. I havent been in a casino since July 1st when I played at a casino to renew my tier level.
I cant retrieve dice anymore. I have no trouble bending down but like the TV commercial I can't get back up. I need Life Alert.
This is a great opportunity for us to learn something.
Quote: tuttigym[
Couldn't be me; can't run; I am blind, and in a wheelchair. BTW which casino? I am amazed that you can feel anything but personal superiority.
tuttigym
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Gila River Casino
Chandler AZ
I flat bet the PL plus 345 odds the entire time. I’m generally quite conservative when I’m not in Vegas for some reason.Quote: AlanMendelsonAce tell us about your play. Tell us about your betting and return. How did those bets with odds work out for you. What did you start and finish with?
This is a great opportunity for us to learn something.
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I left with a tiny win. Roughly 2% of my total bets, assuming I made 60 bets at an average of 4x flat bet (total bet amount). Should be pretty close. I don’t think I was ever up or down more than four bets (excluding come out resolutions, to which I pay little attention)
I should get better at doubling up my $10 Free Play on Video Poker.
Quote: Ace2
Gila River Casino
Chandler AZ
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What made you think I'd be playing in Chandler Arizona?
Was this some attempt to accuse me of being a superstitious player who dives for dice?
If you're going to play a game at which you expect to lose, why even play at all?
By the same token, if someone goes to the casino, varies his bet a lot, and loses a lot regularly, I'd expect such a person to stop playing too.
Try that and then tell us if it was boring. I believe you’d be quite engaged the entire time. You might find it’s actually a lot more fun than being engaged 2% of the time (when you make your huge bets) and bored 98%
My betting level is probably a lot lower than yours, but it’s at a level such that I get a bit of a rush for every single win and loss. Otherwise I wouldn’t bother playing
It just seems quite different to me laying it out there big at times when I believe that the cards will be in my favor, whether blackjack or baccarat, that sort of thing gets me going, that thought that I'm giving myself a shot at a substantial win.
Let's just say that it all comes down to what's in my mind - if I'm convinced that "what's the use" I'm just going to lose the house edge no matter what (which, I understand that you have argued repeatedly is what will happen eventually in any flat bet house edge game scenario), then how could I get engaged?
Thanks….a nice summation of your approach to gaming. It’s a viewpoint which I can totally respect because, regardless of what the pure mathematics may indicate, you recognize and incorporate the human element of what it means to you (or what economists would say “utility”) into the value of your play.Quote: MDawgWell, we are talking about craps so you and I are on the same page of thinking that there's no difference between one roll or the next. Given that - no matter how high the flat bet was, in my mind I'd be thinking, Over time I'm just going to lose the house edge, so it would be much ado about nothing. In my mind.
It just seems quite different to me laying it out there big at times when I believe that the cards will be in my favor, whether blackjack or baccarat, that sort of thing gets me going, that thought that I'm giving myself a shot at a substantial win.
Let's just say that it all comes down to what's in my mind - if I'm convinced that "what's the use" I'm just going to lose the house edge no matter what (which, I understand that you have argued repeatedly is what will happen eventually in any flat bet house edge game scenario), then how could I get engaged?
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I don’t think you read the numbers in my post. The expected loss is $34,000 +/- $800,000, $800,000 being one standard deviation and over 20 times the expected loss. So, most likely, your results will be no where even remotely close to the house edge. You’d probably have to flat bet (plus odds) 8 hours per day for a few years before you can be reasonably confident of being close to the expected edge. That’s part of what’s so great about a super low edge (well under half a percent) bet like PL + odds : in the short-medium term it’s essentially a free game but with LOTS of varianceQuote: MDawgWell, we are talking about craps so you and I are on the same page of thinking that there's no difference between one roll or the next. Given that - no matter how high the flat bet was, in my mind I'd be thinking, Over time I'm just going to lose the house edge, so it would be much ado about nothing. In my mind.
It just seems quite different to me laying it out there big at times when I believe that the cards will be in my favor, whether blackjack or baccarat, that sort of thing gets me going, that thought that I'm giving myself a shot at a substantial win.
Let's just say that it all comes down to what's in my mind - if I'm convinced that "what's the use" I'm just going to lose the house edge no matter what (which, I understand that you have argued repeatedly is what will happen eventually in any flat bet house edge game scenario), then how could I get engaged?
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Quote: Ace2You’d probably have to flat bet (plus odds) 8 hours per day for a few years before you can be reasonably confident of being close to the expected edge
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This is probably the best thing you ever wrote.
Tuttigym take note.
I’m glad to know I have two full-time proofreaders, free of chargeQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2You’d probably have to flat bet (plus odds) 8 hours per day for a few years before you can be reasonably confident of being close to the expected edge
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This is probably the best thing you ever wrote.
Tuttigym take note.
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My post means you’d need to play a few years to be quite close to the expected edge% in a low edge/high variance game like PL + odds. That said, you will still notice an enormous difference, just in a few days, between that and a high edge/low variance bet like placing the 5. For the latter you can be highly confident of already being a loser after only a few days
Quote: Ace2I’m glad to know I have two full-time proofreaders, free of chargeQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2You’d probably have to flat bet (plus odds) 8 hours per day for a few years before you can be reasonably confident of being close to the expected edge
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This is probably the best thing you ever wrote.
Tuttigym take note.
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My post means you’d need to play a few years to be quite close to the expected edge% in a low edge/high variance game like PL + odds. That said, you will still notice an enormous difference, just in a few days, between that and a high edge/low variance bet like placing the 5. For the latter you can be highly confident of already being a loser after only a few days
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Craps is a negative expectation game. You're getting no argument from me.
"After only a few days" is the second best thing you ever wrote.
Yes. After reading the last several posts myself, I was coming to the same conclusion, thinking all that about flat betting, variance, standard deviation and all that... obvious! Chumpchange should bump his bet to $10, but only after the first win.Quote: ChumpChangeSo I should bump my bet from $7 to $10 on the Buy 5 or 9 after the 2nd win so I get my $10 on the first win.
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The genius of the 2 Point Molly is that the Come bet wins while the PL bet loses on a point 7-out.
Quote: Ace2I flat bet the PL plus 345 odds the entire time. I’m generally quite conservative when I’m not in Vegas for some reason.
I left with a tiny win. Roughly 2% of my total bets, assuming I made 60 bets at an average of 4x flat bet (total bet amount). Should be pretty close. I don’t think I was ever up or down more than four bets (excluding come out resolutions, to which I pay little attention)
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Way to go ACE2, this post shows the inevitability of system play. You are the poster child and should have your picture next to the definitions of gambling systems (craps anyway) that will produce ultimate failure. It shows that a "player" that adopts the "establishment math" preached endlessly here has no real chance of success at the table save a "hot" shooter on a "monster" roll.
Thanks for shining the light.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2I flat bet the PL plus 345 odds the entire time. I’m generally quite conservative when I’m not in Vegas for some reason.
I left with a tiny win. Roughly 2% of my total bets, assuming I made 60 bets at an average of 4x flat bet (total bet amount). Should be pretty close. I don’t think I was ever up or down more than four bets (excluding come out resolutions, to which I pay little attention)
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Way to go ACE2, this post shows the inevitability of system play. You are the poster child and should have your picture next to the definitions of gambling systems (craps anyway) that will produce ultimate failure. It shows that a "player" that adopts the "establishment math" preached endlessly here has no real chance of success at the table save a "hot" shooter on a "monster" roll.
Thanks for shining the light.
tuttigym
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That’s true of any way you choose to play craps.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymToo broad a brush.
tuttigym
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So you have a winning system? Do telll!
:-)
Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymToo broad a brush.
tuttigym
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So you have a winning system? Do telll!
:-)
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Yep, 4th grade arithmetic; no EV's or SD's; short term play and wins and leave when ahead.
tuttigym
Quote: camaplThat’s not a system. That’s clairvoyance!
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What clairvoyance is involved in counting your chips and knowing that you're ahead?
What's wrong with taking a profit? Then having money to play again another day.
Isn't that how you build a bankroll?
Exactly, not a "system." Most all gambling is a "guessing" game. Even card counters "guess" and wonder of wonders sometimes they get it right; sometimes wrong. The 4th grade arithmetic allows for my "clairvoyance" to produce "probabilities" that weigh in my favor at the table and wonder of wonders sometimes I am right and sometimes..........Quote: camaplThat’s not a system. That’s clairvoyance!
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tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Tuttigym doesn’t require clairvoyance. He has a method giving him 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. Using 4th grade arithmetic, that means he wins 83% of his wagers
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There you go Ace2, and that surely beats a 1.41% HE? Right? Imagine if one owned a baseball team that won 83% of the time. How many world championships could be won? Or MDawgs bankroll?
You and others are really good at craps "math" much better than me. The 1.41% HA/HE only applies to ONE craps wager, i.e., the PL. Right? How about you use your expertise and calculate the HA/HE on the totality of all the craps wagers combined on say a 3 point Molley or the Iron Cross? That would be the TRUE reality of the game. Oh yeah, and please do NOT show your work. The equations might run "forever" and would be extremely confusing to most everyone.
tuttigym
Remember that bets win one at a time, but when a 7 is rolled all bets lose -- for the right-way player.
Quote: AlanMendelsonDon't yell at me for answering but the more bets you have on the table the bigger your potential loss.
Remember that bets win one at a time, but when a 7 is rolled all bets lose -- for the right-way player.
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Not yelling at you this time Alan. That is the point of the question. The HE/HA becomes geometrically higher with more wagers that are exposed to a 7 out. So when forum members tout the low HE on the PL bet, a bet usually at the table minimum, it provides a totally false impression of the monetary risk of exposure to one's bankroll. The answer to the question is no longer 1.41%; it is a much greater number as the number of wagers and the size of the wagers increase. So, again Mr. Ace2 can you calculate the HA/HE of the Iron Cross knowing that there are 30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose?
Alan, is that a fair question?
tuttigym
However, player has an infinite advantage if he adds the AnySeven bet to the iron cross, because it’s impossible for him to lose. Iron cross + Any7 is a perpetual money making machine
Quote: Ace2Yes. Player has 30/6 = 500% advantage playing iron cross
However, player has an infinite advantage if he adds the AnySeven bet to the iron cross, because it’s impossible for him to lose. Iron cross + Any7 is a perpetual money making machine
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Please tell me how much must be bet in each position of the iron cross plus big red for this to be perpetual money making machine?
I'll try it tonight.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2Yes. Player has 30/6 = 500% advantage playing iron cross
However, player has an infinite advantage if he adds the AnySeven bet to the iron cross, because it’s impossible for him to lose. Iron cross + Any7 is a perpetual money making machine
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Please tell me how much must be bet in each position of the iron cross plus big red for this to be perpetual money making machine?
I'll try it tonight.
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DON'T!! $10 table: $12 PB 6 &n 8 +$10 PB 5 plus $10 Field Plus $11 Any 7. Total of bets = $55
Results: Field win = $1 net loss ($10 RTP less $11 loss on any 7; PB win= $7 net loss ($14 PB RTP $14 less $10 Field loss less $11 Any 7 loss; Any 7 win = $44 RTP less $34 PB loss less $10 Field loss; net $0.
Ace2=misinformation and pulling one's chain. Apparently his "math" can't come up with the HE/HA for combination bets only for single low level minimum wagers that cannot be reproduced or performed with the exception of computer simulations which in his mind are totally reliable and provide him, at the tables a + or - 2% while investing thousands of $$$ at his local casino. I hope Warren Buffet is not looking over his shoulder.
tuttigym
My Iron Cross would be 3 units on the 5, 6, 8 and 2 units on the Field. Obviously the Field bet has the highest HA, unless you're at a triple 2 & 12 table, so your HA will trend much higher than individual place bets. If you make 720X $10 Field Bets, times 5.56% HA, you could expect to lose $400 to the HA ($200 on a triple 2 & 12 table).
Quote: ChumpChangeI find it quite difficult to win 8 Iron Cross bets in a row after the Come-out. Seems I'm fighting the average rolls per shooter and losing early.
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That is about right, so using your advanced "math," what is the HE/HA on the Iron Cross? It certainly is NOT 1.41%, right ?
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeWe can give you the HA on individual bets, but if you want to throw them in a mixer, that's a no-no.
My Iron Cross would be 3 units on the 5, 6, 8 and 2 units on the Field.
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Well, SHAZAAM!!! Here comes the truth. It seems that all the "math" gymnastics and gyrations and equations put forth on this forum regarding HA/HE in craps are basically bogus because most everyone, who plays the game, knows that the PL or any other individual bet are usually played in multiples during any given hand.
Thanks CC, you have actually performed a great service.
tuttigym
