Leaving bets ON during come-out
Is leaving place/buy/come-odds bets ON during comeout rolls considered bad etiquette? Sort of like betting the don’t since you can be winning/losing while everyone else is pushing ?
I’ve set come odds to ON a few times and some other players shook their heads. And when a seven is rolled during comeout, making my bet lose, they have this smug look like “that’s why you leave it OFF”
Also, do dealers care if you leave bets on? I suppose it’s more work for them tracking which bets are on instead of knowing everything is off during comeout.
If playing the DP, just lower the bets and increase the odds to avoid losing big on the come-outs.
As for having 4 to 6 PB's up and ON during the come-out, I can only say it's a mistake and you'll be seeing your chips disappear in rapid succession. Now for point 7-outs, you'll still be seeing your chips disappear in rapid succession whether your bets were ON or OFF during the come-out.
As for Come-bets with odds, I'd have two $20 Come bets up with a $40 PL bet, so a 7-winner is basically a Push with the Come-odds OFF. On a 10X Odds table I could have 3,4,5X Odds on the PL and 6,8,10X Odds on each of the Come bets.
Quote: Ace2Question for the veteran craps players:
Is leaving place/buy/come-odds bets ON during comeout rolls considered bad etiquette? Sort of like betting the don’t since you can be winning/losing while everyone else is pushing ?
I’ve set come odds to ON a few times and some other players shook their heads. And when a seven is rolled during comeout, making my bet lose, they have this smug look like “that’s why you leave it OFF”
Also, do dealers care if you leave bets on? I suppose it’s more work for them tracking which bets are on instead of knowing everything is off during comeout.
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It has nothing to do with etiquette.
It should have no effect on dealers.
I'm kind of surprised an experienced craps player would ask these questions.
A craps player I knew used to say that Come bets are only for when the table is hotter than hot and only 11s and points are being rolled. The rest of the time I suppose he suggested just buying the numbers, and not all of them unless things were really happening.
When I used to play mostly I'd just bet the line and max odds and that was it.
Over all, I just never got into craps because my wins and losses in that game more or less evened out.
I don’t ever recall them asking. Off by default and it’s rare to see people keep them onQuote: MDawgAs I recall the dealers always ask "Off on the come out?" when you place those bets, so I assume Off is the standard.
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I suggest you try “always coming”. You can have up to seven active bets (all six points covered plus a PL bet). At that stage you have a bet resolved every roll…about every 35 seconds. It’s actually too fast IMO. You could also buy/place all the numbers if you don’t mind paying five to ten times higher edgeQuote: ChumpChangeCraps is a horribly slow game compared to BJ or Baccarat. But a Hot Shooter once an hour can make up for an hour of losses.
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One of the best features of craps is you can probably make it as fast or slow as you like
If you want to experience confirmation bias, btw, this is a great time for that. If you [if you're like me] review the number of times you benefited from leaving them on, with the number of times it hurt you... if you didn't write it down and just go on memory, you'll definitely conclude you got burned. Ha! Guarantee it. Of course, you'll likely forget you are expected to lose more often than you win; if it was about 50% of the time you are killing it!
playing the darkside, the odds are always on btw
too fast and too much in action [for me]Quote: Ace2I suggest you try “always coming”. You can have up to seven active bets (all six points covered plus a PL bet). At that stage you have a bet resolved every roll…about every 35 seconds. It’s actually too fast IMO. You could also buy/place all the numbers if you don’t mind paying five to ten times higher edgeQuote: ChumpChangeCraps is a horribly slow game compared to BJ or Baccarat. But a Hot Shooter once an hour can make up for an hour of losses.
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One of the best features of craps is you can probably make it as fast or slow as you like
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Some day I'll give up my optimism and bet 2 Don't numbers per turn and triple my session money in the first hour.
Since these are free odds, the net effect is zero. Leaving them on just effectively increases your playing time and variance since your bets are working for more rollsQuote: odiousgambitI have my odds working all the time, usually. It is an 'ouch' I really feel when the 7-winner is a loser for your still-standing odds bets ... other players 'knowing looks' not needed. I usually just sort of agree, then say 'overall it just seems to be lucky for me' ... they can accept that kind of thinking.
If you want to experience confirmation bias, btw, this is a great time for that. If you [if you're like me] review the number of times you benefited from leaving them on, with the number of times it hurt you... if you didn't write it down and just go on memory, you'll definitely conclude you got burned. Ha! Guarantee it. Of course, you'll likely forget you are expected to lose more often than you win; if it was about 50% of the time you are killing it!
playing the darkside, the odds are always on btw
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I’ve been playing about five years but I struggle understanding some of the superstitions. For instance, I will never understand the animosity that sometimes exists toward Don’t bettors…you’re betting. heads and I’m betting tails and the casino is holding about 1.4% on both of us.Quote: AlanMendelson[
I'm kind of surprised an experienced craps player would ask these questions.
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Better to say the payoff on odds has no house advantage and no player advantage.
But they're not free.
I don't know why or how the term "free odds" came to be and why it's been repeated. But no bet on a craps table is really free... unless you're using a promo chip.
Quote: Ace2Over the long run you lose nothing on the odds bet. Costs nothing. Meets my definition of free
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I'd love to see a poll on this:
Over your life playing craps on the odds I
A. Lost money
B. Broke even
C. Made money
D. Broke even but I dont understand why I lost more than 1.41% of my bankroll
That’s easy. Assuming 100,000 bets resolved, 99% chance your answer will be B +/- 1% of total amount wagered. Half a percent chance you won more than 1% and half a percent chance you lost more than 1%.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2Over the long run you lose nothing on the odds bet. Costs nothing. Meets my definition of free
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I'd love to see a poll on this:
Over your life playing craps on the odds I
A. Lost money
B. Broke even
C. Made money
D. Broke even but I dont understand why I lost more than 1.41% of my bankroll
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Quote: Ace2That’s easy. Assuming 100,000 bets resolved, 99% chance your answer will be B +/- 1% of total amount wagered. Half a percent chance you won more than 1% and half a percent chance you lost more than 1%.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2Over the long run you lose nothing on the odds bet. Costs nothing. Meets my definition of free
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I'd love to see a poll on this:
Over your life playing craps on the odds I
A. Lost money
B. Broke even
C. Made money
D. Broke even but I dont understand why I lost more than 1.41% of my bankroll
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So... how much more than 1% ??
Please elaborate. I don't understand the questionQuote: AlanMendelson
So... how much more than 1% ??
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Quote: Ace2Please elaborate. I don't understand the questionQuote: AlanMendelson
So... how much more than 1% ??
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You wrote:
"Half a percent chance you won more than 1% and half a percent chance you lost more than 1%."
My question is how much more than 1% am I winning or losing?
Quote: Ace2I suggest you try “always coming”. You can have up to seven active bets (all six points covered plus a PL bet). At that stage you have a bet resolved every roll…about every 35 seconds. It’s actually too fast IMO. You could also buy/place all the numbers if you don’t mind paying five to ten times higher edgeQuote: ChumpChangeCraps is a horribly slow game compared to BJ or Baccarat. But a Hot Shooter once an hour can make up for an hour of losses.
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One of the best features of craps is you can probably make it as fast or slow as you like
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Isn't that 30 ways to win an only six ways to lose? 4th grade arithmetic I knew you would come around Ace2. Just jump in, the water is really fine.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2I’ve been playing about five years but I struggle understanding some of the superstitions. For instance, I will never understand the animosity that sometimes exists toward Don’t bettors…you’re betting. heads and I’m betting tails and the casino is holding about 1.4% on both of us.Quote: AlanMendelson[
I'm kind of surprised an experienced craps player would ask these questions.
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You need to complete that strategy, i.e., that is the PL bet only. The rest of the wagers are nowhere close to 1.4%. So what is the "casino holding" on the rest of the wagers?
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Over the long run you lose nothing on the odds bet. Costs nothing. Meets my definition of free
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I will wager that that statement comes directly from computer simulations which of course are so accurate that they are impossible to perform.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2
That’s easy. Assuming 100,000 bets resolved, 99% chance your answer will be B +/- 1% of total amount wagered. Half a percent chance you won more than 1% and half a percent chance you lost more than 1%.
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Really? Really? Suppose you, starting tomorrow or whenever you get to your nearest casino, start tracking 100,000 of YOUR bets and give us all the results. We trust you to be accurate. BTW how many potty breaks will that entail?
tuttigym
Well, 1% is about 3 standard deviations which is why it gives 99% confidence. 2% would be about 6 SDs…meaning around a 1 in 500 million chance (essentially zero) of being up or down more than 2% after 100k bets. You have a better shot at winning the Powerball jackpot tonight (1 in 292 million )Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2Please elaborate. I don't understand the questionQuote: AlanMendelson
So... how much more than 1% ??
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You wrote:
"Half a percent chance you won more than 1% and half a percent chance you lost more than 1%."
My question is how much more than 1% am I winning or losing?
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Over the long run you lose nothing on the odds bet. Costs nothing. Meets my definition of free
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I will wager that that statement comes directly from computer simulations which of course are so accurate that they are impossible to perform.
tuttigym
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I think it comes from a textbook or Internet article or definition that explains the perfect world of theory but is something no one has ever experienced in actual play.
I'd like to see just one YouTuber post a video of a craps session where they actually had the results dictated by the math, i.e., they won 1 out of 3 points when the point was 4 or 10; they won 2 out of 3 points when the point was 5 or 9; they won 5 out of 6 points when the point was 6 or 8.
What I'd really like to see is the actual play of those who quote the math.
Similarly I don't see the loss that might be expected with most of these other players who are playing with no advantage. I see most of them dump their entire bankrolls trip after trip, or even if they do have a winning trip it gets eclipsed by many losers.
This and some other posts of mine pretty much sum up what I have observed.
I suppose if someone flat bets then over the amount of time that the average player puts in things might even out, but given first of all that the average player has a limited bankroll and all players have limits on max bets, over the period of time that the average player puts in if he varies his bet greatly you can't really say with certainty that things will even out to where he loses exactly the house edge, and my empirical evidence and observation confirm this as well. Time is part of the key - the average player doesn't necessarily put in the amount of time for expected probability to gibe with actual results, but especially so if the player wildly varies his bet and just happens to bet big when the variance is going strongly against him, which as unscientific as that may sound, seems to happen a lot more than the opposite, betting big when things are going well.
You just see that all the time, someone betting small when winning 80% of his hands, and betting ridiculously big when losing almost every hand.
But if you are flat betting then the house edge % is already quite noticeable after 1000 bets, and some of us will make that many bets in one trip to Vegas. By noticeable I mean that the guy flat betting red at the double zero roulette table will almost always leave a loser and the guy flat betting 3:2 blackjack with proper strategy will win nearly half of his trips.
I just don't see very many flat betting at Blackjack or Baccarat. Time and again you see that huge case bet and the player slinking away unhappily.
And very rarely do I see that flat betting Bank only Baccarat player.
Maybe at craps there is more flat betting?
I suppose given enough TIME if someone were wildly varying his bet EVENTUALLY things might even out to where the expected house advantage or player advantage would equal the result, but I don't think a player could necessarily put in enough time and have the bankroll to ENSURE that that happened.
Whether it's blackjack or baccarat people don't like to just lay it all out there first hand....
Quote: AlanMendelsonI'd like to see just one YouTuber post a video of a craps session where they actually had the results dictated by the math, i.e., they won 1 out of 3 points when the point was 4 or 10; they won 2 out of 3 points when the point was 5 or 9; they won 5 out of 6 points when the point was 6 or 8.
Rusty from 'The Craps Lab' does that in this video. He begins discussing pass line results by point, and place bet results at 8:00
Over a lifetime of of craps on 3x-4x-5x tables only where my only play consists of flat bets (switching back and forth between Do an Don't about equally) and always taking max odds, my answer would be:Quote: AlanMendelson
I'd love to see a poll on this:
Over your life playing craps on the odds I
A. Lost money
B. Broke even
C. Made money
D. Broke even but I dont understand why I lost more than 1.41% of my bankroll
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A. Lost money...the loss being about 0.3275% of my total lifetime wagers.
Sounds about right !Quote: UP84Over a lifetime of of craps on 3x-4x-5x tables only where my only play consists of flat bets (switching back and forth between Do an Don't about equally) and always taking max odds, my answer would be:
A. Lost money...the loss being about 0.3275% of my total lifetime wagers.
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Quote: UP84
Over a lifetime of of craps on 3x-4x-5x tables only where my only play consists of flat bets (switching back and forth between Do an Don't about equally) and always taking max odds, my answer would be:
A. Lost money...the loss being about 0.3275% of my total lifetime wagers.
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1. Define "lifetime."
2. Average table minimum?
3. "lifetime" total estimated wagers?
4. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2
Well, 1% is about 3 standard deviations which is why it gives 99% confidence. 2% would be about 6 SDs…meaning around a 1 in 500 million chance (essentially zero) of being up or down more than 2% after 100k bets. You have a better shot at winning the Powerball jackpot tonight (1 in 292 million )
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This post should come with a "parental warning": BEWARE: Don't try this at your local casino 100k bets may be hazardous to one's financial security and mental well-being.
And you always seem to leave out that the statements ONLY pertain to the PL wagers. Why is that?
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgI can report actual table game play based on me and my winning results are nothing like what might be expected based on playing with no advantage, a small advantage, or a small disadvantage.
In craps, MDawg, define actual Advantage Play specifically related to the game.
Mr. Mendelson: Please answer this question AFTER MDawg posts his response, if he does.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2If you are widely varying your bets then there is no reliable way to predict your results. They might come down to just a few huge bets.
But if you are flat betting then the house edge % is already quite noticeable after 1000 bets, and some of us will make that many bets in one trip to Vegas. By noticeable I mean that the guy flat betting red at the double zero roulette table will almost always leave a loser and the guy flat betting 3:2 blackjack with proper strategy will win nearly half of his trips.
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Let's see, 1000 $10 PL bets or $10,000 will result in a loss of $141 (theoretically). So, how long at a table averaging 6 players playing will it take to make those 1000 $10 PL wagers, and is a total small loss of $141 really "quite noticeable"?
Just keep coming up with those great reality table plays, and I will keep asking the hard questions waiting for the real answers or crickets.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: UP84
Over a lifetime of of craps on 3x-4x-5x tables only where my only play consists of flat bets (switching back and forth between Do an Don't about equally) and always taking max odds, my answer would be:
A. Lost money...the loss being about 0.3275% of my total lifetime wagers.
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1. Define "lifetime."
2. Average table minimum?
3. "lifetime" total estimated wagers?
4. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
tuttigym
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1. Define "lifetime."
More than 25 girlfriends ago, which for some members of this forum would be over two dozen lifetimes.
2. Average table minimum?
21. But over in Macau I definitely saw some teenagers at the tables.
3. "lifetime" total estimated wagers?
A lot.
4. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
Well to be honest once, in July 1999, for thrills I put $25 on the hard 10 just to see what it feels like to be a sucker.
With buyins and colorups I'm guessing a passline bet is made and resolved each 5 minutes or 12 times per hour.
1000 bets ÷ 12 = 83 hours
Playing 8 hours a day it would take 10 days to report the action on 1,000 passline bets.
This again is my guess. And I'm including long rolls as well as winner-7s and winner-11s in my guesstimate.
Without using basic math, GUESS is all you can doQuote: AlanMendelsonI'm going to GUESS that a passline bet on average takes 8 rolls to resolve.
Quote: Ace2Without using basic math, GUESS is all you can doQuote: AlanMendelsonI'm going to GUESS that a passline bet on average takes 8 rolls to resolve.
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Yeah but I actually play... not just read Internet articles.
Anyone who comes on here to calculate his handle easily must be flat betting and even then must have a very good record of hours played. Otherwise, I'd have to say that offering imprecise calculations of the handle obviate the ability to calculate what % of money wagered was won or lost.
It also doesn't make a lot of sense that anyone would flat bet over an entire lifetime - so, this person started off rich and always bet the same, or this person started off poor and remained poor? Most people will not bet the same their entire lifetimes. (An exception might be someone like Bill Gates - I saw him play blackjack and it was with red chips only, and I understand that if he plays at all, he always plays very small, which is probably the same as he bet before he struck it rich - but even so, if Bill Gates wants to play today unless he goes to some dump he will have to play green chips, so even he would have a hard time flat betting his entire lifetime.)
If you don't really know exactly how much you wagered then you can't calculate what % you won or lost.
At at least one of the casinos, after I complained about that they were underreporting my average bet, they started "bet tracking" me which means that the pit boss was writing down every single bet I made on a piece of paper and later calculating the exact average of these bets. Not an easy feat given hundreds of bets made per session. Absent doing that and then adding up every bet, you can't know exactly what your handle was for a session, let alone for many sessions.
Years ago I did something similar. I placed the 5 onceQuote: UP84
4. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
Well to be honest once, in July 1999, for thrills I put $25 on the hard 10 just to see what it feels like to be a sucker.
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Yeah, gotta live dangerously every now and then!Quote: Ace2Years ago I did something similar. I placed the 5 onceQuote: UP84
4. So, no other wagers during your craps session?
Well to be honest once, in July 1999, for thrills I put $25 on the hard 10 just to see what it feels like to be a sucker.
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Anyway, back to your original questions, I always keep my come odds working on the come out roll. No particular reason other than consistency (I don't mind the added variance).
Sometimes when a seven appears on the come out I'll get a disapproving look from another player...of course these scornful glances usually occur as he or she eagerly puts down a center-of-the-table bet. It really doesn't bother me.
For the most part keeping the come odds working on the come out roll is not a problem for the dealers, as long as you're consistent. What bothers them most are players who sometimes keep the odds working and sometimes do not.
No idea what you're talking aboutQuote: AlanMendelson
Yeah but I actually play... not just read Internet articles.
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But I'm getting fed up waiting around for the 2nd point to hit, so next time I may just put $7 on the Buy 5 or/& 9. If I hit one of those 9 times in a turn on my progression, I'd win $405. If I hit 5 times on one number, that'd be over 10X my $7 bet won. I wouldn't keep my Buy bets ON during the come-out because I don't want to reset my progression until after a 7-out.
Why would another player criticize you?
Play your game. It's your money.
It has no impact on dealers either as long as the dealers are understanding your bet.
Is this a group troll?
