Fresh Thoughts Request on Baccarat v B-J v Texas Hold 'em v Digging Ditches

Hi everyone! I'm new and have a ton of questions I've been asking mostly about Baccarat v other games. I have read through many of the threads but i thought I'd ask some questions that probably have already been answered in some way already BUT, I was looking for fresh answers. Thank you in advance.

QUESTION for the group: Based on what I've been reading here, does anyone even still play baccarat? I ask b/c I have read many of the posts and this idea of sitting down hoping to walk into a situation and "inherit" money from a shoe does make a lot of sense (and I can't remember who posted that but kudos to you and good analogy).

Up to this point I have chosen to look at it more like "investing" / daytrading. You have approximately a 50 / 50 shot of profiting from a 60 second investment. I have had a lot more success than failure and I absorb them. I would def consider myself an advanced player, still learning, but def A-P. Most of the things that make some sense I have figured out on my own that I now see many people have written books about, like the Tambone guy, and others.

QUESTION: Using other analogies posted here, its like the 1% of the 1% who are successful like professional athletes but how much of that is really luck in the case of baccarat (or timing) and how much of that is more of decision based methodology?

QUESTION: If you try and combine a lot of ideas of percentages of success with banker and also following certain trends, or patterns (w/e) and its more successful than not successful, and you are walking away with profit on a legitimately consistent basis, does that not mean that person(s) has some idea in what they are doing? I'm only asking and I really appreciate and respect all other people's (fresh) thoughts.

POKER QUESTION: Should everyone just play poker? Put in 80-120 hrs a week getting good at that game? Its crazy b/c no matter how well you play that game, like any other, if you don't have the cards, and are not getting the cards, then you will mostly and ultimately lose money playing that game as well.

BLACKJACK QUESTION: Same thing, I supposed I could work very very hard at getting good to pretty good at B-J, but how much of a percent advantage do you actually get and all the other variables of making mistakes or being at a table where other people can screw you up. It seems just as treacherous to me as all the other games.

ONLINE COMPUTER BACCARAT: Where and how are people utilizing computers / computer programs to play bac? Or any other game for that matter?

***I spend a lot of time in Vegas, and I'm the kind of guy who will most definitely put his money where his mouth is. This is not a challenge, but I'm serious about finding who these pro players are, and serious about finding anyone who is truly successful that consistently plays. I don't use super large bank rolls. I actually purposely avoid RFB's and I never give or ask for a player's card and when they bother me I tell them nicely to buzz off b/c I don't want them to know who I am.

FEED BACK REQUEST QUESTION: I know I'm a success thus far (key words) but I want to know how much and how realistic is to continue? b/c then I'd consider switching full time to something else b/c I'm not going back to work a 9-5 anymore. I'm just not. I have had multiple months where I have pulled down well over 30k. I have had months where I have lost 5-10k, and my action is typically like 12-15k in an hour, which I have been looking to tweak and reduce closer to flat betting but not quite there yet. When I first started 5yrs ago I did martingale like crazy b/c I didn't know anything about anything, I was up 34-ish K and I did get bit hard and lost about 32k in a month b/c I had zero discipline (I did actually lose it in a period of a week / 3 separate days) but It was all the houses money and not my own (luckily for sure) and from there I started to learn and make adjustments and came to many of the trend analysis / pattern analysis, and statistical probability stuff that most people come to. Its just crazy to me personally that its just pure luck to have this kind of decent amount of success.

I'd honestly love to hear from you guys (& gals) and your stories.

Quote: Sirius666

Hi everyone! I'm new and have a ton of questions I've been asking mostly about Baccarat v other games. I have read through many of the threads but i thought I'd ask some questions that probably have already been answered in some way already BUT, I was looking for fresh answers. Thank you in advance.

QUESTION for the group: Based on what I've been reading here, does anyone even still play baccarat? I ask b/c I have read many of the posts and this idea of sitting down hoping to walk into a situation and "inherit" money from a shoe does make a lot of sense (and I can't remember who posted that but kudos to you and good analogy).

Up to this point I have chosen to look at it more like "investing" / daytrading. You have approximately a 50 / 50 shot of profiting from a 60 second investment. I have had a lot more success than failure and I absorb them. I would def consider myself an advanced player, still learning, but def A-P. Most of the things that make some sense I have figured out on my own that I now see many people have written books about, like the Tambone guy, and others.

QUESTION: Using other analogies posted here, its like the 1% of the 1% who are successful like professional athletes but how much of that is really luck in the case of baccarat (or timing) and how much of that is more of decision based methodology?

QUESTION: If you try and combine a lot of ideas of percentages of success with banker and also following certain trends, or patterns (w/e) and its more successful than not successful, and you are walking away with profit on a legitimately consistent basis, does that not mean that person(s) has some idea in what they are doing? I'm only asking and I really appreciate and respect all other people's (fresh) thoughts.

POKER QUESTION: Should everyone just play poker? Put in 80-120 hrs a week getting good at that game? Its crazy b/c no matter how well you play that game, like any other, if you don't have the cards, and are not getting the cards, then you will mostly and ultimately lose money playing that game as well.

BLACKJACK QUESTION: Same thing, I supposed I could work very very hard at getting good to pretty good at B-J, but how much of a percent advantage do you actually get and all the other variables of making mistakes or being at a table where other people can screw you up. It seems just as treacherous to me as all the other games.

ONLINE COMPUTER BACCARAT: Where and how are people utilizing computers / computer programs to play bac? Or any other game for that matter?

***I spend a lot of time in Vegas, and I'm the kind of guy who will most definitely put his money where his mouth is. This is not a challenge, but I'm serious about finding who these pro players are, and serious about finding anyone who is truly successful that consistently plays. I don't use super large bank rolls. I actually purposely avoid RFB's and I never give or ask for a player's card and when they bother me I tell them nicely to buzz off b/c I don't want them to know who I am.

FEED BACK REQUEST QUESTION: I know I'm a success thus far (key words) but I want to know how much and how realistic is to continue? b/c then I'd consider switching full time to something else b/c I'm not going back to work a 9-5 anymore. I'm just not. I have had multiple months where I have pulled down well over 30k. I have had months where I have lost 5-10k, and my action is typically like 12-15k in an hour, which I have been looking to tweak and reduce closer to flat betting but not quite there yet. When I first started 5yrs ago I did martingale like crazy b/c I didn't know anything about anything, I was up 34-ish K and I did get bit hard and lost about 32k in a month b/c I had zero discipline (I did actually lose it in a period of a week / 3 separate days) but It was all the houses money and not my own (luckily for sure) and from there I started to learn and make adjustments and came to many of the trend analysis / pattern analysis, and statistical probability stuff that most people come to. Its just crazy to me personally that its just pure luck to have this kind of decent amount of success.

I'd honestly love to hear from you guys (& gals) and your stories.

I am going to give you the best advice I ever received about gambling. I was staying at the Sands in AC and a guy once told me that when you go to the casino, the name of the casino is THE SANDS and when you leave it is still going to be called THE SANDS. Don't try to win the casino!

LOL. I like it. Good stuff thanks, and makes a ton of sense, especially when I have tried to push hard on wins and turn a $300-600 win into a $600-900 loss. Those aren't fun lost profit swings for sure, but I've been improving. The hardest thing is to see that in certain situations, sticking around was better than leaving and vice versa, should have accepted the $300 and just moved to the next shoe.

QUESTION: So does that mean you're saying go for the smaller wins and walk or what? Please elaborate. Did you play Baccarat? Do you play baccarat now? Or is this just a general statement. Do you have a preferred game other than baccarat?

Thank you in advance.

Quote: FatGeezus

the name of the casino is THE SANDS and when you leave it is still going to be called THE SANDS. Don't try to win the casino!

+1
Very sound advice. Keep a sensible perspective, don't get carried away emotionally with dreams of untold wealth just because your first three hands were all black jacks.

Quote: Sirius666

I would def consider myself an advanced player, still learning, but def A-P.

You aren't.

If I'm not, which is fine btw, then what is an AP in baccarat?

And who are you exactly and what do you play? and how often? and whats your success rate?

This is serious, so I don't want deal with any sort of troll or A-hole. As I said, I put my money where my mouth is, can you?

Quote: Sirius666

Hi everyone! I'm new and have a ton of questions I've been asking mostly about Baccarat v other games. I have read through many of the threads but i thought I'd ask some questions that probably have already been answered in some way already BUT, I was looking for fresh answers. Thank you in advance.

QUESTION for the group: Based on what I've been reading here, does anyone even still play baccarat? I ask b/c I have read many of the posts and this idea of sitting down hoping to walk into a situation and "inherit" money from a shoe does make a lot of sense (and I can't remember who posted that but kudos to you and good analogy).

Up to this point I have chosen to look at it more like "investing" / daytrading. You have approximately a 50 / 50 shot of profiting from a 60 second investment. I have had a lot more success than failure and I absorb them. I would def consider myself an advanced player, still learning, but def A-P. Most of the things that make some sense I have figured out on my own that I now see many people have written books about, like the Tambone guy, and others.

QUESTION: Using other analogies posted here, its like the 1% of the 1% who are successful like professional athletes but how much of that is really luck in the case of baccarat (or timing) and how much of that is more of decision based methodology?

QUESTION: If you try and combine a lot of ideas of percentages of success with banker and also following certain trends, or patterns (w/e) and its more successful than not successful, and you are walking away with profit on a legitimately consistent basis, does that not mean that person(s) has some idea in what they are doing? I'm only asking and I really appreciate and respect all other people's (fresh) thoughts.

POKER QUESTION: Should everyone just play poker? Put in 80-120 hrs a week getting good at that game? Its crazy b/c no matter how well you play that game, like any other, if you don't have the cards, and are not getting the cards, then you will mostly and ultimately lose money playing that game as well.

BLACKJACK QUESTION: Same thing, I supposed I could work very very hard at getting good to pretty good at B-J, but how much of a percent advantage do you actually get and all the other variables of making mistakes or being at a table where other people can screw you up. It seems just as treacherous to me as all the other games.

ONLINE COMPUTER BACCARAT: Where and how are people utilizing computers / computer programs to play bac? Or any other game for that matter?

***I spend a lot of time in Vegas, and I'm the kind of guy who will most definitely put his money where his mouth is. This is not a challenge, but I'm serious about finding who these pro players are, and serious about finding anyone who is truly successful that consistently plays. I don't use super large bank rolls. I actually purposely avoid RFB's and I never give or ask for a player's card and when they bother me I tell them nicely to buzz off b/c I don't want them to know who I am.

FEED BACK REQUEST QUESTION: I know I'm a success thus far (key words) but I want to know how much and how realistic is to continue? b/c then I'd consider switching full time to something else b/c I'm not going back to work a 9-5 anymore. I'm just not. I have had multiple months where I have pulled down well over 30k. I have had months where I have lost 5-10k, and my action is typically like 12-15k in an hour, which I have been looking to tweak and reduce closer to flat betting but not quite there yet. When I first started 5yrs ago I did martingale like crazy b/c I didn't know anything about anything, I was up 34-ish K and I did get bit hard and lost about 32k in a month b/c I had zero discipline (I did actually lose it in a period of a week / 3 separate days) but It was all the houses money and not my own (luckily for sure) and from there I started to learn and make adjustments and came to many of the trend analysis / pattern analysis, and statistical probability stuff that most people come to. Its just crazy to me personally that its just pure luck to have this kind of decent amount of success.

I'd honestly love to hear from you guys (& gals) and your stories.

Hi, and welcome to the forum.
Questions beget questions and new ideas and new advantage plays are all eagerly received.

You've apparently discovered that baccarat is a fun game. Frankly, I enjoy losing money as much as the next guy but I far prefer blackjack, where my decisions have some value. With baccarat, the only decision is 'Which losing bet prospect should I wager on next?' The boring answer is 'Banker, followed by banker followed by banker'. That's a bit boring to me. No maths, no strategy decisions. de nada. Zip. Nothing.
But you are an advantage player? What insight do you have that is worth sharing here? Have you found a way of getting an edge? Maybe some casino with stupidly generous comps or loss rebate? Short of that of course, you are not a baccarat AP at all!

For all your questions about baccarat, I'm fresh out of answers, except maybe why it's so unpopular on this forum: This forum is populated mostly by members with the mathematical nous to realise that you cannot beat a house edge by just wagering it. Trends mean nothing. Money management adds no advantage. Counting is of negligible value. Same answers for baccarat online with the added risk of getting stiffed.

I can't answer about poker either.

Blackjack, I can answer. A good blackjack card counter who wong in/out or skillfully ramps his bet within the tolerance of the casino to make a player advantage of the order 0 to maybe a max of 4% Any more than that and he risks getting backed off or booted out. To get such %age advantage, he spends a greater proportion of his time simply watching, scouting, counting. Other players add and detract to a broadly equal extent, so are not relevant. Maybe some of the more experienced practical counters will comment further on that. Ask Zenking. He's the best... In his own estimation.

The real advantage players here don't just try to beat the games. They watch out for and know how to exploit casino (or other player) weaknesses. They can be far far more valuable. But you are an AP. you probably know that.

Regards,
OD.

Quote: Sirius666

If I'm not, which is fine btw, then what is an AP in baccarat?

And who are you exactly and what do you play? and how often? and whats your success rate?

This is serious, so I don't want deal with any sort of troll or A-hole. As I said, I put my money where my mouth is, can you?

Polite but firm warning. Do not infer or imply that other members here are trolls or a-holes. Personal insults are not welcome here.

First off thank you for at least trying to offer something, and not being a total troll. Although the bold type is a bit unnecessary, but thats fine.

If there is no such thing as AP player in the game of baccarat then then what would consistent success be then? Just some lucky person and thats it?

Secondly, It does not appear that most anyone here is a mathematical nous at anything, much less baccarat.

It cannot just be "mathematical luck" over the course of years to be good at any game. And talking about progressions in blackjack certainly does not seem much different than a progression in Baccarat.

Either again, in your estimation, WHAT constitutes an baccarat AP? other than RFBs & other rebates / commission reductions?

Or does that just not simply exist?

On top of that, what have you ever won in Black jack? How much have you won? and how long? where do you stand? Player weakness doesn't even apply to Black jack btw as you said, unless you're speaking of poker? are you?

I want to hear it.

Thats fine and I apologize but putting answers / comments in bold type is not exactly respectful either, but again since we are pointing things out, you should know yes?


Anyway, In your whole Black jack career? Your whole Poker career? Your whole anything career? How much have you made and lost? and how far are you ahead or behind?

Seriously, I invite anyone to try and answer honestly? Because according to Vegas and all the reports that would mean virtually EVERYONE is behind, INCLUDING 99.9% of all the people on this forum, including you.

Quote: Sirius666

Thats fine and I apologize but putting answers / comments in bold type is not exactly respectful either, but again since we are pointing things out, you should know yes?


Anyway, In your whole Black jack career? Your whole Poker career? Your whole anything career? How much have you made and lost? and how far are you ahead or behind?

Seriously, I invite anyone to try and answer honestly? Because according to Vegas and all the reports that would mean virtually EVERYONE is behind and cluding 99.9% of all the people on this forum, including the trolls.

Happy to answer honestly.
I'm broadly speaking a recreatational Blackjack player. I seldom bother with card counting, but I do, from time to time, exploit certain casino weaknesses.
You can read all about how my bankroll has run from Jan 2014 to recently in my blog

I'm happly to hear that you've had some good luck in Baccarat, assuming you are not exploiting anything. With decent bankroll, that's not so unlikely...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/5/#post1370 explains how little luck you nee to turn $x into $x+$y
Here's a good snapshot of my wins and losses
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1752

Quote: Sirius666

Thats fine and I apologize but putting answers / comments in bold type is not exactly respectful either, but again since we are pointing things out, you should know yes?


Anyway, In your whole Black jack career? Your whole Poker career? Your whole anything career? How much have you made and lost? and how far are you ahead or behind?

Seriously, I invite anyone to try and answer honestly? Because according to Vegas and all the reports that would mean virtually EVERYONE is behind, INCLUDING 99.9% of all the people on this forum, including you.

You will also be a lifetime loser when it's all said and done. You have no special skills or method. There is no pattern or system to beat the game. You are not an AP. Unless you are cheating, which it seems you are not, you won't overcome the house advantage in the long run, no matter what you do.


ZCore13

Quote: Sirius666

Either again, in your estimation, WHAT constitutes an baccarat AP? other than RFBs & other rebates / commission reductions?

Or does that just not simply exist?

There you have it. Doesn't exist.

I appreciate your response. I have seen you respond to a lot of posts, and I like them.

My issue is with a few things.

First, the reality that all games against the house are negative expectation games (setting poker and other games aside where you don't go against the house directly). With that fact, other than RFBs, rebates, commission reductions, there is no way to have long term success in any games?

Second, I here so much about Black jack card counting, but unless you are truly truly sharp, from what ive seen with my own eyes and read, most people fail at it, and badly.

Thirdly, Poker seems to require 100+ hours a week of reading and practice and 3-5 yrs before you could really try and get out there and beat people for real.

4th, this is not towards you specifically, but I have read a good size chunk of the posts here, and I get a very strong impression, besides people (excuse the bad word) trolling others, no one here or comes on here on a regular basis is actually very successful at any of these games. Seriously, like 99.9% of everyone fails. So who are all the people on this site that supposedly have knowledge?

I'm not trying to start anything or be argumentative, but who are all these people? I want to meet some of you and see what you all are capable of. I want to know how much you guys are ahead or behind in all your games of chance?

I am willing to meet people and show myself. I don't care about this site. Pick a place and time in Vegas for example and lets meet and talk and see what everyone is about.

Quote: Sirius666

I appreciate your response. I have seen you respond to a lot of posts, and I like them.

Good. Thanks.

Quote:

other than RFBs, rebates, commission reductions, there is no way to have long term success in any games?

Counting gives a way to get long term success. But it's hellishly hard work.

Quote:

Second, I here so much about Black jack card counting, but unless you are truly truly sharp, from what ive seen with my own eyes and read, most people fail at it, and badly.

I generally agree. Two notable members here Stabworld, and more recently Zenking, gave. is giving, it a real shot. But even these guys are far from on a get rich quick path. If there are folks here making big money just from BJ card counting, they are surely having to put long hours in and put a lot of bankroll at real risk of loss.

Quote:

Thirdly, Poker seems to require 100+ hours a week of reading and practice and 3-5 yrs before you could really try and get out there and beat people for real.

Poker is player v player and if you can get games where the other players have more money but less skill, you can probably make good profit. Not my forte.

Quote:

4th, this is not towards you specifically, but I have read a good size chunk of the posts here, and I get a very strong impression, besides people (excuse the bad word) trolling others, no one here or comes on here on a regular basis is actually very successful at any of these games. Seriously, like 99.9% of everyone fails. So who are all the people on this site that supposedly have knowledge?

I concur that the profit making, knowledgeable AP's on this, or any forum are few in number. But they have a mass of knowledge and wisdom. If you've lurked here a while, you know the real deal... and yes. You probably recognise some that are not. I assert that the strongest AP's are beating the casinos weaknesses rather than beating the games.

Quote:

I'm not trying to start anything or be argumentative, but who are all these people? I want to meet some of you and see what you all are capable of. I want to know how much you guys are ahead or behind in all your games of chance?

Maybe if you keep within the rules here and stay open minded, some of the Vegas members will reach out to you. However, I doubt your prowess at baccarat will win you any special kudos ( just telling it as I see it )
Some members have a 'spring fling' get together. I'm sure you'd enjoy it. Sadly I'm too far away for this year.

I just wanted to say thank you very much for taking the time to answer the previous post. I would like to get a sense of the back of everyone's baseball card.

So thats the cute and clever way of putting things. Very administrator like of course, but thats fine too. Its funny. I figured i'd get hit with that but its still funny.

Answer the other questions then?

Since blackjack is your game, then How much have you made and lost in Black jack in your career / free time? How far are you ahead or behind?

Since I'm not an AP, and even if i was, there is no such thing as an AP, so whatever ever the luck factor is, I'm up 182k and change over 5 yrs. Legit

Playing slots, often giving money to family to enjoy, and including tips, I'm down about $8500 over 20+ years. about 5k is all my own but about 3k is family, and $500 in tips for sure. could be as much as 9k but not worse than that at all.

Keno: up $1200. Use the mystic method the most, but its just for fun and got some good hits on four card.

Video poker: down less than $200. Don't play it much at all, unless bored hanging out with F&F waiting for a drink looking to switch things up a bit

Craps: never ever play it. Just don't like it.

Black Jack: Down about $700 over 20+ years, and thats a game I don't like,

Poker: Down maybe $100 b/c its another game I just don't play

3 card poker: Down $50 bucks at the most, b/c I only play it with friends and not by myself b/c I don't like it.

So WHERE DO YOU stand OnceDear? I am being 100% straight with you. Do it with me. This has nothing to do with who's better or worse or luckier or w/e. I want to know about all the people who come to this forum, b/c we all know other than 888, WoV / WoO is by far the best, and with all the stats out there, that means 99.9% OF EVERYONE HERE IS A LOSER, because no one can win in the long run right?

Show me the back of your baseball card man. Until then, I want to genuinely say thank you for your time and I do honestly appreciate yours and anyone thoughtful posts. all the best to you and yours.

P.S. I'm looking to branch out using my windfall and truly learn BJ and poker b/c like i said, I'm not going back to a 9-5 no matter what. I plan on dramatically reducing my time at the BAC tables and online to learn to more how to improve at the concepts of RFB commission reductions & rebates (which I have purposely and apparently stupidly avoided), but more so to see which game between BJ and Poker suits my brain and abilities, b/c even I know Bac is super simple.

P.P.S Thanks again and all the best until next time, and again I apologize if anything tone wise in my posts came out wrong. Peace out.

Quote: Sirius666

So WHERE DO YOU stand OnceDear? I am being 100% straight with you. Do it with me. This has nothing to do with who's better or worse or luckier or w/e. I want to know about all the people who come to this forum, b/c we all know other than 888, WoV / WoO is by far the best, and with all the stats out there, that means 99.9% OF EVERYONE HERE IS A LOSER, because no one can win in the long run right?

Come on Once Dear? Show me the back of your baseball card man.

Maybe you clicked my links in mid edit. So I'll give you the tldr....

Jan 2014 invested £100 in online BJ. Won and cashed out >£6000 on day one.
proceeded to lose back at steady rate till I had just about £1200.
Did some aggressive wagering and some bonus exploits and won my way up to over £18,000.
Got banned from certain places/stuff and recreationally lost my way down to about £700.
Exploited some tasty exploits and worked back up to currently in pocket by just shy of £5,000
That's all from my initial £100 investment.

Revisit the links which are now correct.
Here's a good snapshot of my wins and losses
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1752

And I'm a financially comfortable retiree playing recreationally at low stakes. Most of my play was/is at no advantage.
Incidentally. Unlike most players here, I see entertainment value in progressive wagering and if I have an online balance of say £900, You're darn tootin' that I'd try to marty my way up to 1000 before bedtime. Most times it works :o)

My bankroll is allowed to ebb and flow into a dedicated bank account. I log every buy in and cash out. My wagering is not subject to any tax.

Oh yes..... and I used to be able to keep a running total of all 'action' I'd placed. I cannot keep that record with my current casinos, but total since 2014 is in the ballpark £5m to £7m
so I should have lost about £30k of that at 0.5% so being up about £5k is not really remarkable.

Quote: OnceDear

I assert that the strongest AP's are beating the casinos weaknesses rather than beating the games.

(1) Some APs are mostly front-end players (beating the casino games).
(1a) Some beat "house" games (where the profits come from the casinos)
(1b) Or beat other players (e.g. poker)

(2) Other APs are mostly back-end players (living off casino marketing & "player retention" funds)
(2a) They might beat the casino games (10-40% of profit), but back-end money is the majority (60-90%).
(2b) Or they might lose on casino games (-10% to -30% loss), with back-end (110-130%)

Perhaps 95% of the gamblers who make money...make less than minimum wage after expenses.
Grinders. People making a little extra money (like Uber and Lyft drivers). People who want a little of the "good life"...so spend profits on drugs, women, and good food...so their bankroll stays the same year in, year out.

Really gifted, talented players can make $100K-200K in their first year, starting from $1,000 (or less).
Some have done the online poker challenges (Start with $0, and turn it into $10K-20K playing free games).
Others start by finding chips on casino floor and leftover slot tickets, and playing low-budget slots.

I was really clueless when I started. First year I tried playing full-time, I only made $14,000 (before expenses & tax).
I don't play much now. In 2018, just $6,200 profit, and not filing taxes as a "professional gambler" anymore.

So general advice is HAVE FUN! If you make a profit, cool.

Very difficult to consistently make $200/hr/person, 40 hrs/wk/person (pre-tax) on house games (unless you make a team which has lower-paid scouts & players), so gamblers who make more money usually move to
(3) Poker
(4) Sports
(5) Horses
(6) Stock market
(7) Real estate
(8) Starting businesses

Many of the most profitable APs are part-timers. Some of them have full-time jobs or businesses. Others are retired. The time management, money management, and people skills (e.g. employees, allies, and competitors) helpful for high profits, also are useful in regular jobs and entrepreneurship. Some professional teams issue each other tax forms, take detailed records of machine numbers for every slot machine they play, and are full-on business enterprises.

Full-time gamblers who are very good tend to move on to better pastures (unless they are poker players). When their bankrolls grow, the money they make from stocks, real estate, and businesses overshadows what they could make gambling. If an opportunity arises where they can make $500-2,000+/yr, they might start playing until that opportunity disappears.

Just have a good time. Don't get thrown out of too many casinos.

Baccarat is not an AP friendly game. The closest anyone has come to AP ing (that I've heard) it are shuffle trackers and edge sorters, both of which need specific circumstances and careful setup to pay at an advantage. As casinos have learned from past practice, both are largely countermanded.

Baccarat sidebets are sometimes vulnerable to counting. Also some progressive sidebets become AP if they're high enough.

But there is no money-management plan or pattern identification or bet progression or counting technique that will beat the basic game over time. You have to find a vulnerability in how the game is shuffled or dealt, or cards marked, or other illegal or semi-legal ways to get an edge. Semi-legal in the sense of casinos will throw you out for it, even if they can't have you arrested.

If you're winning, great. You're on the plus side of variance. It won't last.

Most of the other games you mentioned might have an edge. Depends on a lot of things. Exception is craps with fair dice. There is no combination of bets, bet progression, or repeatable streak to live craps. Maybe you can find an ecraps table malfunctioning.

The rest of the games, there are ways. It should be obvious if you've read so much of the archives, that sharing those ways on a public board is highly discouraged among the regulars. To discuss it is to expose it to the casinos or distributors, who will plug that leak if they find out about it. That's how APs make their money, by seeing around corners, finding a vulnerability, bad procedures, unintended consequences, whatever.

They don't give that stuff away. Fresh ideas on how to beat games are constantly being discovered and practiced and shut off. So I don't think you're going to get any just asking for them here. But there are people reading this who tend to hire and train good candidates. That'd be your best bet, to watch your PM's for people suggesting a meet. And in the mean time, talk like someone worth recruiting.

Feedback - no one has said the slightest trolling thing to you. You might back off that insinuation a notch.

And, if you've already found 888, you should read all of Eliot Richardson's archives there, as well as the discussions here.

Quote: mamat

Perhaps 95% of the gamblers who make money...make less than minimum wage after expenses.
Grinders. People making a little extra money (like Uber and Lyft drivers). People who want a little of the "good life"...so spend profits on drugs, women, and good food...so their bankroll stays the same year in, year out.

Really gifted, talented players can make $100K-200K in their first year, starting from $1,000 (or less).
Some have done the online poker challenges (Start with $0, and turn it into $10K-20K playing free games).
Way better than me. First year I tried playing full-time, I only made $14,000 (before expenses & tax).

So general advice is HAVE FUN! If you make a profit, cool.

Very difficult to consistently make $200/hr/person, 40 hrs/wk/person (pre-tax) on house games (unless you make a team which has lower-paid scouts & players), so gamblers who make more money usually move to
(3) Poker
(4) Sports
(5) Horses
(6) Stock market
(7) Real estate
(8) Starting businesses

Many of the most profitable APs are part-timers. Some of them have full-time jobs or businesses. Others are retired. The time management, money management, and people skills (e.g. employees, allies, and competitors) helpful for high profits, also are useful in regular jobs and entrepreneurship.

Full-time gamblers who are very good tend to move on to better pastures (unless they are poker players). When their bankrolls grow, the money they make from stocks, real estate, and businesses overshadows what they could make gambling. If an opportunity arises where they can make $500-2,000+/yr, they might start playing until that opportunity disappears.

Just have a good time. Don't get thrown out of too many casinos.

Seconded.
I p155 about, partly playing loss making games at house edge of 0.3% and £1 per round and partly playing profitable promos at 99% player edge and up to £!00 per round ( sadly capped profits ) I enjoy both kinds of play. Some days it's just a rather spun out coin toss to turn 50 into either 0 or 100 and somedays it's just wagering through 100 of completely free play in the hope of cashing out 100. It's all fun and any exploits or freebies make it more so. Losing is fun too!
But then, I make a far greater advantage from running my own business and make far, far greater wagers on stocks and shares. Even there, careful use of stock options made me enough to retire early and comfortably.
Kudos to the OP if he made ~$200k playing baccarat. It's a rather meaningless stat unless he reveals what his total 'at risk' bankroll was. E.g anyone could easily walk into a game and marty 100,000 into 200,000 even if most of the 100,000 was just held back in reserve at the other end of an atm.

Quote: beachbumbabs

The rest of the games, there are ways. It should be obvious if you've read so much of the archives, that sharing those ways on a public board is highly discouraged among the regulars. To discuss it is to expose it to the casinos or distributors, who will plug that leak if they find out about it. That's how APs make their money, by seeing around corners, finding a vulnerability, bad procedures, unintended consequences, whatever.

They don't give that stuff away. Fresh ideas on how to beat games are constantly being discovered and practiced and shut off.

It's boggles my mind, how many technical details have appeared on the internet in the past 5-10 years. Used to be more hush-hush.

New trend in 2017-2018 seems to be step-by-step instructions with lots of pictures.

Unknown AP has been "outing" current low-budget slot machines (banking slots).
Some strategies too aggressive, others too conservative...and not adjusted for different slot machine holds/return/payback.
http://www.advantageslots.com (8/14/18)
https://twitter.com/advantage_slots (4/26/18) Describes some California slot inventory
https://www.facebook.com/advantageslots/ (9/17/18)

Travel blog even has slot advice.
https://travelupdate.boardingarea.com/casino-advantage-play-aladdins-fortune/ Aladdin 3D (2/1/17)
https://travelupdate.boardingarea.com/gamble-advantage-play-plants-vs-zombies/ Plants vs Zombies 3D (1/26/17)

I think we'll just have to get used to information being passed around at a much faster pace than in the past.
"Security by Obscurity" may be a thing of the past.

People on Twitter are communicating by DM, but there's a lot of public pictures & discussions.
Not much on Instagram yet.

Quote: mamat

It's boggles my mind, how many technical details have appeared on the internet in the past 5-10 years. Used to be more hush-hush.

The new trend in 2017-2018 seems to be step-by-step instructions with lots of pictures.

Unknown AP has been "outing" current low-budget slot machines (banking slots).
...
Travel blog even has slot advice.
...

Wow How Loose lips sink ships.
What's up with those muppets. Exploit and keep shtum. Don't just use as click bait.. Unless that's financially stronger?

Quote: OnceDear

Wow How Loose lips sink ships.
What's up with those muppets. Exploit and keep shtum. Don't just use as click bait.. Unless that's financially stronger?

Often people outing stuff are trying to sell "Blackjack Training" or other courses...

Selling books is a lousy way to make money (as any author can tell you...unless you are J.K. Rowling)
https://www.amazon.com/Million-Dollar-Slots-Peter-Liston-ebook/dp/B00A60CSGS/

Peter Liston is promoting himself as "World expert in playing the slots as a business. Available for speaking and consulting. see www.pokermachineschool.com.au for latest information."
https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-liston-453ab8a/

Eliot Jacobson was getting casinos to pay him for his knowledge (retired in October 2017).
https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/eliot-jacobson

Unsure what the unknown AP was intending. Living off advertising?
This guy's website has already been mentioned on online discussion boards.

----
Unknown AP says on his website:
"I’d just like to use this post to thank all of you who have visited this website over the past 6 months. XYZ isn’t seeing massive traffic by any stretch but it has seen steady growth over this time & I couldn’t be happier about it. I’d also like to reiterate that I’m just an average Joe advantage slot player. Always have been, always will. I’m just using information passed through the grapevine from other willing slot hustlers as well as through my own personal experiences.

Not exactly high level stuff coming from me & perhaps my strategies are not perfect. But it’s been good enough to have made a good living over the past several years & I believe what I know can at least be of some value to many of you. Especially to those of you new to the idea of advantage playing slot machines. Hopefully you are all out there killing it. "

If you invest the time necessary to beat BJ, you will always have to worry about losing places to play as you are backed off.

If you invest the time necessary to beat poker, you will have a longer career. It is not easy to be able to beat the field and beat the rake.

There is no way to beat baccarat, other than counting the various side bets, or doing something that may blur the line between AP and cheating. Either way, short career here also.

Good luck.

Quote: FCBLComish

There is no way to beat baccarat, other than counting the various side bets, or doing something that may blur the line between AP and cheating.

Beating the Baccarat Tie Bet - Eliot Jacobson (1/16/13)

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/beating-the-baccarat-tie-bet

Quote: FCBLComish

If you invest the time necessary to beat BJ, you will always have to worry about losing places to play as you are backed off.

If you invest the time necessary to beat poker, you will have a longer career. It is not easy to be able to beat the field and beat the rake.

There is no way to beat baccarat, other than counting the various side bets, or doing something that may blur the line between AP and cheating. Either way, short career here also.

Good luck.

I treat BJ and VP as a hobby. None of my other hobbies pay me by the hour so grinding out $10 an hour playing works fine for me. Breaking close to even, getting free dinners and entries into numerous contests playing VP a couple hours a week works for me. Someone had turned me on to a decent play that ended, and recently SP has an okay promo for the month. Once a week, I hit it for an hour or two, see a movie using my moviepass and play another hour. Nice way to spend an afternoon.
I've been playing strictly low level BJ but might gear it up in the near future.

Quote: mamat

Eliot Jacobson is getting casinos to pay him for his knowledge (aka the "dark side")
https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/eliot-jacobson

I retired in October, 2017, so "is getting" is false. The last article I submitted to 888 was in early 2017. The last seminar I taught was June, 2017.

As for being the dark side, we have cookies!

The funny part of this small piece of what I did for a living was that I essentially explained the stuff on my blog to folks in casinos. It was awesome to do the research, then get paid for explaining my own research, which was freely posted and freely available. I guess the upshot was that I was a good trainer -- good in front of a group of people. Those skills came from decades of being a professor in front of unambitious students.

I would like to say that Grosjean was the first to *out* advanced plays en masse. I don't see him on your list. Arnold Snyder was not too far behind with his magazine Blackjack Forum and all it explained.

Quote: mamat

Beating the Baccarat Tie Bet - Eliot Jacobson (1/16/13)

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/beating-the-baccarat-tie-bet

There are so many ways to beat baccarat, it makes my head swim. But, most of them are opportunistic and require taking the red pill.

Right now, the greatest opportunity world wide is to beat the "pairs" bet.

Quote: teliot

As for being the dark side, we have cookies!

Hey, that's MY LINE!

Quote: FCBLComish

Hey, that's MY LINE!

No, it isn't. I am sure if you search this site, you will find that I used it long before you even had a glint in your eye of being a member here. (I was like the 5-th person to join this site, before it even officially opened).

Anyway, we can share it ... like a cookie. There's plenty of dark-side to go around. I like the cream-filled part.

Quote: teliot

No, it isn't. I am sure if you search this site, you will find that I used it long before you even had a glint in your eye of being a member here. (I was like the 5-th person to join this site, before it even officially opened).

Anyway, we can share it ... like a cookie. There's plenty of dark-side to go around. I like the cream-filled part.

Okay, maybe not a glint. You joined in April 2010, I joined in October 2009. Yeah ...

Anyway ... let's celebrate cookies.

Quote: teliot

I retired in October, 2017, so "is getting" is false. The last article I submitted to 888 was in early 2017. The last seminar I taught was June, 2017.

I would like to say that Grosjean was the first to *out* advanced plays en masse. I don't see him on your list. Arnold Snyder was not too far behind with his magazine Blackjack Forum and all it explained.

Thanks for the update on your retirement. I edited my post with your correction.

I wasn't intending to make a comprehensive list of "people outing plays", rather I wanted to suggest possible career reasons for "outing plays".

Quote: mamat

Thanks for the update on your retirement.

I wasn't intending to make a comprehensive list of "people outing plays", rather I wanted to suggest possible career reasons for "outing plays".

I wonder, as many have before me, what Grosjean's career reasons were for his two books. Any ideas?

Of course I know Grosjean had (has) a lot more that's unpublished .... like the PNP strategy for BJ hole-card play ...

Quote: teliot

I wonder, as many have before me, what Grosjean's career reasons were for his two books. Any ideas?

Typically books are terrible money-makers (Could be as low as $1-2 profit for a $20-30 retail book).

Typical reasons are... (I don't know Grosjean.)
(1) Book as marketing for services and consulting.
(2) Book as reputation builder or "comparing p**** size" (highly profitable people keep quiet or talk about their big losses, losers talk about their big wins)
(3) Already made enough money. Writing book for fun.

Sometimes academically-oriented people are less concerned about money than doing something interesting and fun.
...so they are "less than wise" about careers, success, and finance (unless they are financial academics).

Even if Grosjean sold 100 books for a large amount. Consider costs and time. If it took him 1,000-2,000 hours to write/print/market, figure out the hourly rate...

Sometimes the reason is
(4) Just want to do something different. Many K-12/College teachers become administrators after 20 years for a change of pace.

Quote: teliot

No, it isn't. I am sure if you search this site, you will find that I used it long before you even had a glint in your eye of being a member here. (I was like the 5-th person to join this site, before it even officially opened).

Anyway, we can share it ... like a cookie. There's plenty of dark-side to go around. I like the cream-filled part.

I must have heard it somewhere. Maybe I inadvertently got it from you then. Sorry. I have used a lot of your ideas. One more or less won't tilt the balance.

Grosjean's books went for quite a large sum. There was more than a few dollars of profit per book. He charged high rates, and did not sell to anyone he could not vouch for personally, or have one of his close associates vouch for.

I have read a lot of things, but never have I personally seen one of his books. I think that is the way it was supposed to work, to keep it away from folks like me.

By the way, we know quite a bit about a lot of the things that the APs want to keep quiet. You would be surprised.

Quote: teliot

Okay, maybe not a glint. You joined in April 2010, I joined in October 2009. Yeah ...

Anyway ... let's celebrate cookies.

I just remembered where I got it from.... Woot.com shirt.

https://shirt.woot.com/offers/you-cant-resist-the-force-of-the-cookies

Speaking of T-shirts, is there one with a Wizard of Odds logo for sale somewhere? And what would happen if I wore one at a blackjack table while staring intently at the played cards, mumbling numbers, and wildly varying my bets?

As for Baccarat, I've always wanted to play Chemin de Fer in a casino (as opposed to a home game). Hope springs eternal.

Quote: FCBLComish

By the way, we know quite a bit about a lot of the things that the APs want to keep quiet. You would be surprised.

In my experience, better casinos know a lot more than the majority of APs. The are quite aware of the annual cost of the APs who play in their casino, and those accounts may be flagged as APs.

Some casinos make over $1,000,000/day gross revenues with an operating profit margin of 35%-45% ($365 million annual gross revenue, $146 million operating profit).

Anything less than 1% really shouldn't affect overall productivity of the casino ($4,000/day = $1.5 million/yr).
What's more important would be increasing overall casino traffic 10% ($15 million/yr extra profit).
A CFO should be primarily interested in things which increase annual profits by 5-10-20-30%, not small details.

I heard one Indian casino admired low-budget APs.
The staff considered them similar to hunters and foragers, trying to scrape out a living.

More critical would be a mis-designed game or promotion, professional cheaters, or high-bankroll APs - where a casino could lose $100,000+ in one day.
Or catering to big-budget players (e.g. baccarat) with too large a bankroll compared to the casino's bankroll.

Some casinos watch whether the low-budget APs are consuming too much time of their security and surveillance staff.
The cost of one additional employee (and overhead) might be $80,000-150,000/yr.

Quote: Sirius666

QUESTION: So does that mean you're saying go for the smaller wins and walk or what? Please elaborate. Did you play Baccarat? Do you play baccarat now? Or is this just a general statement. Do you have a preferred game other than baccarat?

Thank you in advance.

I have been gambling before it was legal in AC (1978). I guess I started when my father took me to the race track.

I have played just about every casino game there is. I started playing Black Jack just because that was the only game I knew. I then started playing Craps. I read books on the many ways to play. I probably tried every system there was for "winning" at Craps. Even that got boring. Sometimes I would find myself at the table and I would ask myself "WTF am I doing here!"

I would leave the craps table and play Roulette, Pai Gow Poker, UTH, 3 Card Poker, etc.

One thing I never would do was to play the side bets at the table games. When other players asked why I didn't play the bonus or side bets, my response to them was 'Do you think they offer those bonus and side bets for your advantage to win more money or are those bets there for the casino to win more money?"

I always found myself going back to the Craps table...playing from the Dark Side.

One more bit of advice. I can't take credit for this because I read it in a book. Gambling in the casino is like going to war. Think of your chips as soldiers. Now look at your soldiers and look at how many soldiers the dealer has. You may win a battle now and then but you will never win the War!

Good Luck

Quote: Gialmere

Speaking of T-shirts, is there one with a Wizard of Odds logo for sale somewhere? And what would happen if I wore one at a blackjack table while staring intently at the played cards, mumbling numbers, and wildly varying my bets?

As for Baccarat, I've always wanted to play Chemin de Fer in a casino (as opposed to a home game). Hope springs eternal.

I was at The Wild West one day about ten years ago when a guy wearing a polo shirt that said Blackbelt in Blackjack sat down at the table. I was doing a bit of casual counting but saw this guy start going from $5-$25 every few hands. Whenever he raised, I'd follow. He got annoyed and left. Boo hoo. If he wasn't wearing the shirt, I wouldn't have paid any attention to him. The dealer certainly didn't.


I'd buy a WOV shirt.

Quote: FatGeezus

One more bit of advice. I can't take credit for this because I read it in a book. Gambling in the casino is like going to war. Think of your chips as soldiers. Now look at your soldiers and look at how many soldiers the dealer has. You may win a battle now and then but you will never win the War!

Good Luck

Good analogy for martingalers. You only stand a chance of bankrupting the house if your bankroll outguns theirs. And if it does, why mess about gambling.

Baccarat is good for people like me. They encourage counting! They give you the paper and pencils for it and everything.

So with side bets that are vulnerable to counting, I can actually count them, and don’t have to worry about my brain to do it.