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Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:07:03 PM permalink
This site has been a good source for "Ask the Wizard" questions. However, I'm currently running low on good questions. So, I welcome you to try to challenge me with some good ones. Please, nothing about betting systems. Also, nothing that is already on my site, like "what is the effect of the dealer standing on soft 17?" Make them interesting, not just for yourself, but for everybody.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
benbakdoff
benbakdoff
Joined: Jul 13, 2010
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:21:01 PM permalink
If you click on Mohegan Sun's web site right now there is a tally sign that says today's slot payouts are $7,113,567.18. Another sign says $8.4 billion paid out in 2009. How are these figures computed?
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:36:51 PM permalink
Quote: benbakdoff

If you click on Mohegan Sun's web site right now there is a tally sign that says today's slot payouts are $7,113,567.18. Another sign says $8.4 billion paid out in 2009. How are these figures computed?



That is probably the gross win. In my opinion, that figure has zero value to the player. It would only be informative if compared to the total amount bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:47:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is probably the gross win. In my opinion, that figure has zero value to the player. It would only be informative if compared to the total amount bet.



Exactly. We have billboards in our state that have slots payouts at a specific casino. Its meaningless without knowing how much was put into the slots to begin with.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:50:53 PM permalink
1. A Megabucks or lottery winner is often given the choice of receiving the face amount of his winnings as an annuity, or a much smaller lump sum. How fair are the usual lump sum offers, given the calculation of present value?

2. What is the optimal buy-in strategy for casino bingo? At what points do progressive coverall bonuses become positive EV?

3. What dynamics affect football totals betting as the season goes on, the weather gets worse, and there is more information on teams' recent performance? How easy (or difficult) is it to find errors in the line?

4. Stations offers a football contest that pays for most losers as well as most winners. Given that the most loser prizes are pretty substantial, should one try for most losers right from the get-go? How would you estimate how many others are trying the same strategy?

5. Two persons enter a major WSOP event. One is a seasoned pro; the other is a rank amateur. What would you consider their relative equities in the prize fund to be, given the makeup of most WSOP fields?

6. What is the house edge in NHL hockey betting?

7. In blackjack, are there specific cards whose relative presence or absence can affect particular basic strategy decisions, such as the number of 9s and 8s in the deck affecting whether you should or should not hit a 12? If so, is it worthwhile to keep a side count of any such denominations?

8. What numbers should you claim, if you have a choice, in an office football pool? (10x10 grid with 100 "squares".)

9. What are some ways to boost your apparent "theo" losses for comp purposes, while minimizing your actual losses?

10. Can you recommend any literary fiction that treats the world of gambling faithfully and accurately?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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October 12th, 2010 at 6:06:42 PM permalink
If you are interested in puzzles, I described one in a thread here a few months ago. I always thought it was a very good and challenging puzzle, but no one on this forum seemed to give it a try when I posted it.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 12th, 2010 at 6:08:50 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

1. A Megabucks or lottery winner is often given the choice of receiving the face amount of his winnings as an annuity, or a much smaller lump sum. How fair are the usual lump sum offers, given the calculation of present value?



They give about half for the lump sum, before taxes. That is about actuarially fair. However, almost all of it will be in the top tax bracket. After tax considerations, I think you would make out better with the annuity.

Quote: mkl654321

What is the optimal buy-in strategy for casino bingo? At what points do progressive coverall bonuses become positive EV?



The optimal buy-in is usually $0. The breakeven point on the coverall progressive would depend on the cost of the card and the jackpot amount. I write about the Jumbo Jackpot at Station casinos on my site.

Quote: mkl654321

What dynamics affect football totals betting as the season goes on, the weather gets worse, and there is more information on teams' recent performance? How easy (or difficult) is it to find errors in the line?



A lot of people believe that in cold weather less points will be scored. However, I disagree. I don't have any data to prove it. I think a good bet is to wait for a game with REALLY cold weather, like 20 degrees or less, and then bet the over, because all the squares will be betting the under. I can't substantialy that opinion, so don't want to make that an official Q&A.

Quote: mkl654321

Stations offers a football contest that pays for most losers as well as most winners. Given that the most loser prizes are pretty substantial, should one try for most losers right from the get-go? How would you estimate how many others are trying the same strategy?



It would depend on the number of other players with that strategy, and what the low prize is. I'll try to investigate my next trip to the Red Rock.

Quote: mkl654321

Two persons enter a major WSOP event. One is a seasoned pro; the other is a rank amateur. What would you consider their relative equities in the prize fund to be, given the makeup of most WSOP fields?



I'm not a good one to ask. I tend to think head to head the rank amateur would have at least a 40% chance of beating a seasoned pro. However, poker is not my strong point, so I'll that as just an educated guess.

Quote: mkl654321

What is the house edge in NHL hockey betting?




Against a 20-cent line, 4.76%.

I'll get to the rest later.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 12th, 2010 at 6:50:37 PM permalink
How much money do you have to win before a casino see's you as a threat?
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 12th, 2010 at 6:53:10 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

How much money do you have to win before a casino see's you as a threat?



It depends why you're winning it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 12th, 2010 at 6:59:28 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

In blackjack, are there specific cards whose relative presence or absence can affect particular basic strategy decisions, such as the number of 9s and 8s in the deck affecting whether you should or should not hit a 12? If so, is it worthwhile to keep a side count of any such denominations?



Yes. However, it isn't worth the fuss. I think the easiest way to get above basic strategy is my ace-five count.

Quote: mkl654321

What numbers should you claim, if you have a choice, in an office football pool? (10x10 grid with 100 "squares".)



Good question, but I answered it before.

Quote: mkl654321

9. What are some ways to boost your apparent "theo" losses for comp purposes, while minimizing your actual losses?



I might use this one. The simple ways are to take lots of breaks, and bet more when the floor supervisor is watching. It is open to debate if tipping is worth the additional theo you might get out of it.

Quote: mkl654321

Can you recommend any literary fiction that treats the world of gambling faithfully and accurately?



Good question. Off hand, I liked Gambling Wizards by Richard Munchkin. No, I wasn't in it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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