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Skunchle
Skunchle
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August 26th, 2014 at 2:27:22 PM permalink
For a free bet promotion, i.e. a certificate for say $100 that can be
played on a table game and pays back $100 on an even-money bet,
why do some casinos require that that bet on a roulette game
can only be played on RED or EVEN and not also BLACK and/or ODD.

A pit boss told me that it was to that prevent two people
from playing at the same spin, one RED and one BLACK.
But the expected value on two $100 free bets is the same
either way: $94.70.

Given that, does house limitation make any sense?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 26th, 2014 at 2:29:25 PM permalink
Quote: Skunchle

For a free bet promotion, i.e. a certificate for say $100 that can be
played on a table game and pays back $100 on an even-money bet,
why do some casinos require that that bet on a roulette game
can only be played on RED or EVEN and not also BLACK and/or ODD.

A pit boss told me that it was to that prevent two people
from playing at the same spin, one RED and one BLACK.
But the expected value on two $100 free bets is the same
either way: $94.70.

Given that, does house limitation make any sense?



No. Lots of things that casinos do don't make any sense. This is generally a good thing. Unfortunately, in this case, it's not helpful.
DJTeddyBear
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August 26th, 2014 at 3:05:17 PM permalink
Quote: Skunchle

A pit boss told me that it was to that prevent two people
from playing at the same spin, one RED and one BLACK.


Yeah, that's the reason. Lot's of casinos have this same rule. Bet on Pass, but not Don't Pass. Etc. Read the fine print.


Quote: Skunchle

But the expected value on two $100 free bets is the same
either way: $94.70.


Wait a sac. You're expecting the casino to understand the math? That's just crazy talk.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Dieter
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Dieter
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August 26th, 2014 at 11:40:03 PM permalink
Quote: Skunchle

Given that, does house limitation make any sense?



It's exactly what the pit boss said - to prevent a cancellation bet.

They'd rather pay out $100 47% of the time than $100 94% of the time.
May the cards fall in your favor.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 27th, 2014 at 12:32:21 AM permalink
They want people to get hooked on playing and play some more. They don't want a situation where it's smart to not play. It's not about the single bet, it's about future bets.
I am a robot.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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August 27th, 2014 at 4:10:52 AM permalink
To me, the reason is even simpler. Some casinos don't realize that they are in the entertainment business and that having happy customers is how they define success.

The type of person who wants to hedge a coupon is EXACTLY the type of person you should not want to make unhappy in my personal opinion. Also, if they really like hedging (instead of just trying to squeeze money out of a coupon) they are more than likely the type of player a casino wants (low volatility + high edge).

It's also an instance of

Hanlon's_razor
aahigh.com
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 27th, 2014 at 7:58:20 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

To me, the reason is even simpler. Some casinos don't realize that they are in the entertainment business and that having happy customers is how they define success.

The type of person who wants to hedge a coupon is EXACTLY the type of person you should not want to make unhappy in my personal opinion. Also, if they really like hedging (instead of just trying to squeeze money out of a coupon) they are more than likely the type of player a casino wants (low volatility + high edge).

It's also an instance of

Hanlon's_razor

I disagree they want a high edge. They want to make safe guaranteed money. I doubt this rule was meant for ploppys or players who play as much as you. It has been implemented because of relentless APs. I don't think you know the magnitude of what has happened in the past.

Its better for a low banked AP to hedge his bets as often as possible.

Lets pretend you have A few 5k coupons (its happened) and a 5 10k BR, whats better for an AP hedging or making guaranteed money?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 27th, 2014 at 8:09:44 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I disagree they want a high edge. They want to make safe guaranteed money. I doubt this rule was meant for ploppys or players who play as much as you. It has been implemented because of relentless APs. I don't think you know the magnitude of what has happened in the past.

Its better for a low banked AP to hedge his bets as often as possible.

Lets pretend you have A few 5k coupons (its happened) and a 5 10k BR, whats better for an AP hedging or making guaranteed money?



Here is the thing: This is not a zero sum game. Just because it is good for you does not mean that it is bad for the casino.

It is better for you if you play one coupon on each side. It is also better for the casino if you play one coupon on each side. No one should ever take on variance for free. By playing one on each side, you reduce variance, both for you and for the casino.

Now, the casino can handle the variance a lot better than you can (in other words, they would not pay as much to eliminate the variance as you would) but, when given an opportunity to reduce the variance for free, it's correct for them to take it, and it's correct for you to take it. Playing one coupon on each side is win-win.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 27th, 2014 at 8:18:56 PM permalink
Also, FWIW, the limitation doesn't limit anything. You can still cash the coupon out by having an associate bet cash on the other side, and also hedging against the 0 (or whatever, depending on the game)

I guess this does double the house edge (double the action) so the $5k coupon at single-zero roulette is now only worth $2364 instead of $2432.
Switch
Switch
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August 27th, 2014 at 8:57:38 PM permalink
Phew!!! Read the title and thought you had found a flaw in my game :-)
Buzzard
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August 27th, 2014 at 9:05:39 PM permalink
Quote: Switch

Phew!!! Read the title and thought you had found a flaw in my game :-)




Go back to your fish and chips, all is well here in the colonies.

I read once that the sun never sets on the British Empire. I guess not even God can trust an Englishman in the dark.

See you at G2E.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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August 27th, 2014 at 9:09:55 PM permalink
Quote: Switch

Phew!!! Read the title and thought you had found a flaw in my game :-)



lol...naw, Switch, you're perfect as always. Just a new guy who wouldn't know the connection.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
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August 27th, 2014 at 10:39:43 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Yeah, that's the reason. Lot's of casinos have this same rule. Bet on Pass, but not Don't Pass. Etc. Read the fine print.



Wait a sac. You're expecting the casino to understand the math? That's just crazy talk.



That's why I just tear up offers like that and throw them away and tell those jack-asses to take me off their mailing list. And, yes, I do expect professionals to understand at least what I understand about what they do. And why exactly is it a good thing that casinos have policies that insult me by not making sense? I don't need casinos run by corporate kids in order to be happy, and the more I read stories like this, the less I feel that Vegas is some "magical Mecca" to ever bother to visit.
NowTheSerpent
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August 27th, 2014 at 10:43:36 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I read once that the sun never sets on the British Empire.



That was when they had India and Hong Kong.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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August 27th, 2014 at 10:50:23 PM permalink
You mean they don't. OMG who is gonna break the news to Switch ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 27th, 2014 at 11:00:23 PM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent

That's why I just tear up offers like that and throw them away and tell those jack-asses to take me off their mailing list. And, yes, I do expect professionals to understand at least what I understand about what they do. And why exactly is it a good thing that casinos have policies that insult me by not making sense? I don't need casinos run by corporate kids in order to be happy, and the more I read stories like this, the less I feel that Vegas is some "magical Mecca" to ever bother to visit.



So if someone offers you a few grand you are going to turn it down because they are not good at math?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 27th, 2014 at 11:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent

That was when they had India and Hong Kong.



Nope. Still true, just barely.

https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/
Ahigh
Ahigh
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August 27th, 2014 at 11:03:00 PM permalink
Quote: Switch

Phew!!! Read the title and thought you had found a flaw in my game :-)



Gotta tell you it was my favorite at G2E 2013. Nice job!

Actually inspirational to see a game that can offer such a low edge. Though I've heard it has been tightened here and there.
aahigh.com
AxelWolf
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August 27th, 2014 at 11:21:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Quote: NowTheSerpent

That's why I just tear up offers like that and throw them away and tell those jack-asses to take me off their mailing list. And, yes, I do expect professionals to understand at least what I understand about what they do. And why exactly is it a good thing that casinos have policies that insult me by not making sense? I don't need casinos run by corporate kids in order to be happy, and the more I read stories like this, the less I feel that Vegas is some "magical Mecca" to ever bother to visit.



So if someone offers you a few grand you are going to turn it down because they are not good at math?

No.

However, there are people who know dam well the will never get a good offer, they don't know how to without losing far more then the offers are worth. usually its the older curmudgeonly type crowd that have this view.

I don't know NowTheSerpent's situation or why he dislikes casino offers. There are always a few exceptions.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
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August 28th, 2014 at 3:29:12 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Quote: NowTheSerpent

That's why I just tear up offers like that and throw them away and tell those jack-asses to take me off their mailing list. And, yes, I do expect professionals to understand at least what I understand about what they do. And why exactly is it a good thing that casinos have policies that insult me by not making sense? I don't need casinos run by corporate kids in order to be happy, and the more I read stories like this, the less I feel that Vegas is some "magical Mecca" to ever bother to visit.



So if someone offers you a few grand you are going to turn it down because they are not good at math?



They're not good at math but should be, and they penalize me because I actually am. It's insulting.
Switch
Switch
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August 28th, 2014 at 3:44:15 AM permalink
Thanks for the nice comments, I didn't mean to hijack the thread.

Buzz, I'll see you and your US humour (note we use an extra 'u') at G2E!!!
sabre
sabre
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August 28th, 2014 at 8:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent


They're not good at math but should be, and they penalize me because I actually am. It's insulting.



u mad bro?
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 28th, 2014 at 8:45:26 AM permalink
It's not about the EV of the bet itself - it's psychological. The idea is to make sure that the person using the bet actually gambles, because that way they're more likely to keep gambling.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
FleaStiff
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August 28th, 2014 at 9:30:49 AM permalink
Quote: Skunchle

Given that, does house limitation make any sense?

Yes, it makes sense to the management, therefore it makes sense. Doesn't make sense mathematically or from a customer service position but so what?

A lot of couples take the guaranteed win and then put the winnings into a slot machine or a flyer at the craps table.

Nothing wrong with a guaranteed straddle. No casino would ever send a man a coupon that read have a free buffet but don't bring your wife, yet the casino is perfectly willing to give you a match coupon and say don't let your wife jump on the same deal.
Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
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August 28th, 2014 at 9:34:21 AM permalink
A given coupon has the exact same value no matter whether a "gambler" or a risk-averse "hedger" has it. The casino SHOULD prefer the hedger because hedge bets have a negative EV, so the outright gambler gets full value from the coupon while the hedger does not. The hedger is basically buying insurance to protect the value of his coupon, and like all insurance, it carries a cost in EV.

It's not so much that the casino bosses who forbid coupon hedging don't understand math as that they don't understand that if the purpose of a coupon is to generate action, then ALL such action should be welcomed. You offer a promotion--whether it's a casino coupon or a two-for-one offer for cans of soup at a grocery store--with the idea of getting people in the front door. Tracking what happens after that is a futile and stupid exercise. Some people will take the goodies and then turn around and leave; some will stay and become actual customers. Why sweat it?
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 28th, 2014 at 4:57:03 PM permalink
The coupon itself has the same value, and that value is negative. No matter how stupidly you play it, that coupon is a liability. The only reason they're giving it out is to attract gamblers, and since hedging, especially a bad hedge, is by definition risk-averse behavior, it's the last thing they want to encourage. You don't need to track them after that, but a soft nudge to make sure the people you get in the door might actually buy something is a good idea. Every business that offers promotions has a variety of little checks like this - "one per customer," "with any purchase," "members only," etc., etc.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
AxelWolf
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August 28th, 2014 at 7:00:38 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

It's not about the EV of the bet itself - it's psychological. The idea is to make sure that the person using the bet actually gambles, because that way they're more likely to keep gambling.

+1000
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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August 28th, 2014 at 7:08:15 PM permalink
I really do not believe that the reason is to prevent hedging - I have spoken to many casino managers and acutally had a issue tonight with matchplay- the people that create the rules most of the time dont have a clue
for instance at a casino in pa - when you use the coupon in blackjack you only get paid 1-1 on blackjack - on a double you cannot double the coupon value- however on a split you can put up a second coupon if you have it-
they also have a rule that you must use it for player in baccarrat and not banker i was told this way there is no commission taken out- however you can use it in pai gow where they take commission- so clearly most people dont have a clue
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
darkoz
darkoz
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August 28th, 2014 at 7:40:52 PM permalink
Quote: Skunchle

For a free bet promotion, i.e. a certificate for say $100 that can be
played on a table game and pays back $100 on an even-money bet,
why do some casinos require that that bet on a roulette game
can only be played on RED or EVEN and not also BLACK and/or ODD.

A pit boss told me that it was to that prevent two people
from playing at the same spin, one RED and one BLACK.
But the expected value on two $100 free bets is the same
either way: $94.70.

Given that, does house limitation make any sense?



Of course it makes sense. Anyone who doesn't think so never operated a casino.

If you could bet both sides I know plenty of people who would AP the shit out of it.

The odds on roulette may not change but the odds of winning do change.

If I can only bet red then I may win or lose.

If I can bet both, I get someone to play opposite me and with a hedge on green I am guaranteed to win. The advantage is now in my favor, not the casinos.

BTW - this is especially important in Atlantic City where they have the surrender rule. If the ball landed on green, I not only win the money for the hedge but also fifty percent of the both the red and black (or I win the green and get back the vouchers for another spin depending on how the dealer correctly or incorrectly handles it).

So you can see how this could really affect a casinos bottom line.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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August 28th, 2014 at 7:45:55 PM permalink
huh??????
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
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August 28th, 2014 at 7:48:22 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

So you can see how this could really affect a casinos bottom line.



Not really. They will either give away a lot of $5 and $10 coupons to a lot of people or a few $100+ coupons to a few people. The total dollar amount won't be that significant. Also, I suspect that 90% of that money given away won't make it back out the front door. I was told once by a Stations casino manager that 95% of free slot play was lost right back to the casino (which makes you wonder why they're so stingy with free play these days). The people who "AP" such a play as this will be in the tiny, tiny minority.

It's kind of funny how both casinos and APs themselves overestimate the impact of APs.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 28th, 2014 at 8:25:04 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Of course it makes sense. Anyone who doesn't think so never operated a casino.

If you could bet both sides I know plenty of people who would AP



That's nonsense. It's easy to AP without playing both sides, just as long as you get the free play.

Quote: darkoz

The odds on roulette may not change but the odds of winning do change.

If I can only bet red then I may win or lose.



No, you can't. Not with free play. You can win, or you can break even.

Quote: darkoz

If I can bet both, I get someone to play opposite me and with a hedge on green I am guaranteed to win. The advantage is now in my favor, not the casinos.



Less than it would be if you had just put it down on red. Any AP the casino would have to worry about would understand this.

Quote: darkoz

BTW - this is especially important in Atlantic City where they have the surrender rule. If the ball landed on green, I not only win the money for the hedge but also fifty percent of the both the red and black (or I win the green and get back the vouchers for another spin depending on how the dealer correctly or incorrectly handles it).

So you can see how this could really affect a casinos bottom line.



HELL no. A player might be happier always walking out with cash, but it absolutely cannot affect a casino's bottom line. The players are "winning" every time, but what are they winning?

$20 free play on red.
$10 cash on black.
$1 cash on green.

You always "win": red or black, $9 net, green, $12 net (assuming no surrender on the free play). Say hundreds of "AP's" bet that way - on average, for every nineteen, the casino pays out $174.

Now let's look at those poor fools who just put it on red. Most of them, of course, went home with nothing. But nine out of every nineteen won $20, so for every $174 your AP's got, these chumps only cost the house... $180.

So that's the bottom line.

Now, keep in mind that I'm on the side saying this is a sensible policy for the casino, but for a very different reason - essentially, it's to repel the risk-averse, because casino gambling, at least as they would have it, is essentially the canonical example of "irrational" (in pure dollar terms) risk-seeking behavior. (You are, frankly, showing a textbook risk-averse mindset - neither is conducive to AP, at least not at the extreme on display in your post.)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
AxiomOfChoice
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August 28th, 2014 at 8:31:48 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

If you could bet both sides I know plenty of people who would AP the shit out of it.



There is no advantage play to betting both sides.

Quote:

If I can bet both, I get someone to play opposite me and with a hedge on green I am guaranteed to win. The advantage is now in my favor, not the casinos.



That is not an advantage play. An advantage is when you have positive EV. You are just playing games with variance and getting nothing for it.

Quote:

So you can see how this could really affect a casinos bottom line.



It would have absolutely no effect on the bottom line. 10,000 free bet coupons cost the casino the same amount whether all are bet on even, or half on even and half on odd.
darkoz
darkoz
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August 28th, 2014 at 9:06:21 PM permalink
I LOVE YOU GUYS!!!

You are what make it possible for me to do what I do on a daily basis.

If you guys all thought (and acted) the way I do, the casinos would truly be scared and I might be put out of business.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 28th, 2014 at 9:26:18 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I LOVE YOU GUYS!!!

You are what make it possible for me to do what I do on a daily basis.

If you guys all thought (and acted) the way I do, the casinos would truly be scared and I might be put out of business.



lol. Supposed AP who does not understand EV. The scourge of the casinos, indeed.
AxelWolf
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August 28th, 2014 at 10:21:33 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

That's nonsense. It's easy to AP without playing both sides, just as long as you get the free play.



No, you can't. Not with free play. You can win, or you can break even.



Less than it would be if you had just put it down on red. Any AP the casino would have to worry about would understand this.



HELL no. A player might be happier always walking out with cash, but it absolutely cannot affect a casino's bottom line. The players are "winning" every time, but what are they winning?

$20 free play on red.
$10 cash on black.
$1 cash on green.

You always "win": red or black, $9 net, green, $12 net (assuming no surrender on the free play). Say hundreds of "AP's" bet that way - on average, for every nineteen, the casino pays out $174.

Now let's look at those poor fools who just put it on red. Most of them, of course, went home with nothing. But nine out of every nineteen won $20, so for every $174 your AP's got, these chumps only cost the house... $180.

So that's the bottom line.

Now, keep in mind that I'm on the side saying this is a sensible policy for the casino, but for a very different reason - essentially, it's to repel the risk-averse, because casino gambling, at least as they would have it, is essentially the canonical example of "irrational" (in pure dollar terms) risk-seeking behavior. (You are, frankly, showing a textbook risk-averse mindset - neither is conducive to AP, at least not at the extreme on display in your post.)

Are you sure he is not talking about using 2 coupons at the same time?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
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August 28th, 2014 at 10:45:53 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Are you sure he is not talking about using 2 coupons at the same time?



The point is that using two coupons at the same time is no more of an advantage play than using 1 at a time. The EV does not change. Each coupon has a specific EV, and your total EV is the sum of the EVs of the coupons, regardless of whether you bet them at the same time.

Now of course EV is not everything, and if the coupons are very large compared to your bankroll then of course reducing variance is worthwhile. But I think that most people who get very large coupons also have very large bankrolls so I don't think that this is really an issue. Mostly this is just people who have two $10 coupons and don't want to risk getting nothing out of it because they really want that $10. Which is fine, but the point is that if the casino gives out 1000 of these coupons, their bottom line is unaffected regardless of whether people play them 2 at a time (against each other) or one at a time. They are going to lose about the same amount on the coupons either way.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 28th, 2014 at 11:11:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The point is that using two coupons at the same time is no more of an advantage play than using 1 at a time. The EV does not change. Each coupon has a specific EV, and your total EV is the sum of the EVs of the coupons, regardless of whether you bet them at the same time.

Now of course EV is not everything, and if the coupons are very large compared to your bankroll then of course reducing variance is worthwhile. But I think that most people who get very large coupons also have very large bankrolls so I don't think that this is really an issue. Mostly this is just people who have two $10 coupons and don't want to risk getting nothing out of it because they really want that $10. Which is fine, but the point is that if the casino gives out 1000 of these coupons, their bottom line is unaffected regardless of whether people play them 2 at a time (against each other) or one at a time. They are going to lose about the same amount on the coupons either way.

I understand that however, it's worth more per spin. I was really asking because someone said you win or break even. If you use 2, you win no matter what. (assuming no green) It's probably best not to bet both sides, casinos don't like it and it adds to the discontinuing of the coupons . They know if you are doing that, your goal is probably to walk out the door wit the money.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 28th, 2014 at 11:18:54 PM permalink
So yeah, it's all psychology and no math. They want everyone walking around the casino with one leg longer than the other. Perfect Batman question too now I think about it. Na na na na na, Batman! Who was that masked man?
I am a robot.
Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
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August 29th, 2014 at 12:32:15 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo



(You are, frankly, showing a textbook risk-averse mindset - neither is conducive to AP, at least not at the extreme on display in your post.)



A true AP definitely should be risk-averse, because he knows that he will be a winner in the long run as long as he escapes the slings and arrows of variance. The house is risk-averse when it sets betting limits at the tables, for the same reason.

When the ratio of bankroll to amount risked is high, then one can truly be indifferent to the outcome of a +EV bet. For those trying to build a bankroll, it is worth paying a small premium for certainty of a profit even if that reduces overall EV.
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 1:53:13 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The point is that using two coupons at the same time is no more of an advantage play than using 1 at a time. The EV does not change. Each coupon has a specific EV, and your total EV is the sum of the EVs of the coupons, regardless of whether you bet them at the same time.

Now of course EV is not everything, and if the coupons are very large compared to your bankroll then of course reducing variance is worthwhile. But I think that most people who get very large coupons also have very large bankrolls so I don't think that this is really an issue. Mostly this is just people who have two $10 coupons and don't want to risk getting nothing out of it because they really want that $10. Which is fine, but the point is that if the casino gives out 1000 of these coupons, their bottom line is unaffected regardless of whether people play them 2 at a time (against each other) or one at a time. They are going to lose about the same amount on the coupons either way.



You don't live where I do.

Their are tens of thousands of AP's and yes, they are small stakes players but they swarm on casinos.

A situation where a player is guaranteed to make money will result in the casino being swarmed. And let me make myself clear. These AP's earning ten bucks a pop won't leave with just one shot at ten bucks. They will make repeated daily visits.

The Sands casino in Bensalem learned that the hardway. The AP's took advantage of a bus comp program. The casino scheduled their buses so that no one could make three or four trips (the return bus was passing the incoming bus).

What did the AP's do? They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth so they could make EVERY return visit. (The casino was not ID'ing people and the bus comps were simply handed out without using a player's card.)

You're making the mistake of comparing numbers to numbers. You should be comparing people to people. If you have an advantageous situation where I come from the "Expected Value" of players who will show up to take advantage will be higher than those who don't.

I don't use expected value in the mathematical sense but in the physical real world sense. The expected value of an AP situation - lots and lots of pre-determined losses!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:12:19 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You don't live where I do.

Their are tens of thousands of AP's and yes, they are small stakes players but they swarm on casinos.

A situation where a player is guaranteed to make money will result in the casino being swarmed. And let me make myself clear. These AP's earning ten bucks a pop won't leave with just one shot at ten bucks. They will make repeated daily visits.

The Sands casino in Bensalem learned that the hardway. The AP's took advantage of a bus comp program. The casino scheduled their buses so that no one could make three or four trips (the return bus was passing the incoming bus).

What did the AP's do? They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth so they could make EVERY return visit. (The casino was not ID'ing people and the bus comps were simply handed out without using a player's card.)

You're making the mistake of comparing numbers to numbers. You should be comparing people to people. If you have an advantageous situation where I come from the "Expected Value" of players who will show up to take advantage will be higher than those who don't.

I don't use expected value in the mathematical sense but in the physical real world sense. The expected value of an AP situation - lots and lots of pre-determined losses!

We heard about this. What was made public didn't include "They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth"

I find it funny you say this, because while discussing it, I said, I'm surprised no one "hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth" not in them exact words.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:29:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

We heard about this. What was made public didn't include "They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth"

I find it funny you say this, because while discussing it, I said, I'm surprised no one "hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth" not in them exact words.



If you said that, I didn't see it. I looked over the thread and don't see that statement. However, I did point out in that thread that I was there and a part of the whole thing so trust me, I know.

The Asians would literally get off the bus, sell their freeplay cards in the bus parking area and then leave without entering the casino. They would all trudge up the nearby hill to a predetermined spot where they would meet up with the hired bus.

The original thread is here

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/18819-sands-bethlehem-squashes-vp-advantage-play/2/
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:41:27 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

If you said that, I didn't see it. I looked over the thread and don't see that statement. However, I did point out in that thread that I was there and a part of the whole thing so trust me, I know.

The Asians would literally get off the bus, sell their freeplay cards in the bus parking area and then leave without entering the casino. They would all trudge up the nearby hill to a predetermined spot where they would meet up with the hired bus.

The original thread is here

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/18819-sands-bethlehem-squashes-vp-advantage-play/2/

I was not clear, I meant, I was discussing it with a friend.

Yes I read this, It was interesting, to say the least. Not surprising I know of a few thing like this in the past. The scale of this seems incredible. The market value fluctuating and everything makes me chuckle
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:53:26 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I was not clear, I meant, I was discussing it with a friend.

Yes I read this, It was interesting, to say the least. Not surprising I know of a few thing like this in the past. The scale of this seems incredible. The market value fluctuating and everything makes me chuckle



I should make it clear that the whole Sands bus incident involved TWO bus programs, not one.

Basically, there was the New York bus which was a $15 bus ticket for $45. It took two hours to get there and had a 5 hour layover. But there was also a local bus that took passengers from the city of Kutztown about 30 minutes away. That was $15 for $35.

So the Asian bus riders would get off the New York bus, then trudge up the hill for the local driver to take them to Kutztown.

Then they would ride back, get the Kutztown comp, meet up with the same bus driver, go back for a second trip from Kutztown.

Then after receiving all three comps they would either play them out or sell them. Hop back on the New York bus and go home.

Many of them who were homeless might also make a fourth trip at night but the Kutztown bus didn't run then so they just hung out in the food court for their morning return.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 29th, 2014 at 7:14:13 AM permalink
Nothing you're saying suggests that the casinos were taken because their customers hedged. As I said, the trick is getting the free bets.

Quote: Eaglesnest

A true AP definitely should be risk-averse, because he knows that he will be a winner in the long run as long as he escapes the slings and arrows of variance. The house is risk-averse when it sets betting limits at the tables, for the same reason.



An AP should be slightly risk-averse. Sweating the typical denominations of free bets is beyond the pale.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 7:52:27 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Nothing you're saying suggests that the casinos were taken because their customers hedged. As I said, the trick is getting the free bets.



That's because the casinos do not allow it. This discussion was what if the casinos allowed betting both sides on free-bets. My point was they would be taken by hedging if that was allowed.

As for getting free bets, that is not that difficult. There are any number of ways to do that. Some casinos (Mohegan Sun, Foxwoods, etc) give those away as part of the bus rebate program. Mohegan Sun gives away $60 in match-play and Foxwoods is similar. And while it may seem small potatoes, the AP's as I have pointed out can really strip-mine a casino.

Even gamblers who are not true AP's, (a husband and wife on a field trip for example) will do a simple AP maneuver if they realize they can make guaranteed money. Once the casinos are getting nothing but AP maneuvers, the expected value of the offer goes down. Once again, I'm not talking math, I'm talking people.

Expected value of free-play math-wise unchanged.

Expected value of free-play when 95% of people bet against each other - huge difference.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 7:53:33 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Nothing you're saying suggests that the casinos were taken because their customers hedged. As I said, the trick is getting the free bets.



An AP should be slightly risk-averse. Sweating the typical denominations of free bets is beyond the pale.



That's because the casinos do not allow it. This discussion was what if the casinos allowed betting both sides on free-bets. My point was they would be taken by hedging if that was allowed.

As for getting free bets, that is not that difficult. There are any number of ways to do that. Some casinos (Mohegan Sun, Foxwoods, etc) give those away as part of the bus rebate program. Mohegan Sun gives away $60 in match-play and Foxwoods is similar for just a fifteen dollar bus ticket. And while it may seem small potatoes, the AP's as I have pointed out can really strip-mine a casino.

Even gamblers who are not true AP's, (a husband and wife on a field trip for example) will do a simple AP maneuver if they realize they can make guaranteed money. Once the casinos are getting nothing but AP maneuvers, the expected value of the offer goes down. Once again, I'm not talking math, I'm talking people.

Expected value of free-play math-wise unchanged.

Expected value of free-play when 95% of people bet against each other - huge difference.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 29th, 2014 at 10:13:55 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I understand that however, it's worth more per spin. I was really asking because someone said you win or break even. If you use 2, you win no matter what. (assuming no green) It's probably best not to bet both sides, casinos don't like it and it adds to the discontinuing of the coupons . They know if you are doing that, your goal is probably to walk out the door wit the money.



It's true that it's worth more per spin, but how many coupons do you have? If you have thousands of them and a date later, this might be important. If you have two coupons it doesn't really matter if we are talking about you having to stick around for one spin or two to play them off.

darkoz's statement that by betting on opposite sides "The advantage is now in my favor, not the casinos." is the main statement that I was taking issue with. It doesn't change the advantage.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 29th, 2014 at 10:20:31 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You don't live where I do.

Their are tens of thousands of AP's and yes, they are small stakes players but they swarm on casinos.

A situation where a player is guaranteed to make money will result in the casino being swarmed. And let me make myself clear. These AP's earning ten bucks a pop won't leave with just one shot at ten bucks. They will make repeated daily visits.

The Sands casino in Bensalem learned that the hardway. The AP's took advantage of a bus comp program. The casino scheduled their buses so that no one could make three or four trips (the return bus was passing the incoming bus).

What did the AP's do? They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth so they could make EVERY return visit. (The casino was not ID'ing people and the bus comps were simply handed out without using a player's card.)

You're making the mistake of comparing numbers to numbers. You should be comparing people to people. If you have an advantageous situation where I come from the "Expected Value" of players who will show up to take advantage will be higher than those who don't.

I don't use expected value in the mathematical sense but in the physical real world sense. The expected value of an AP situation - lots and lots of pre-determined losses!



You're totally missing the point. Each coupon has a certain value. It doesn't matter how it is played. If they all get played, it does not affect the casino's bottom line whether they are played against each other or not.

Your statement that "the advantage is now in my favor" by playing both sides is not correct. The advantage does not change. Any time you play a free bet coupon, you have an advantage.

If somebody is going every day, and they have two coupons every day, they should not care if they can play them against each other or if they have to play one at a time. After a month or two it will all even out and they will have about the same amount of money. The difference between a guaranteed $10/day and two 50% shots at $10 a day is insignificant if you get it for several days. The swings just aren't that big.

In other words, the problem is not about whether the coupons can be played against each other, it's about whether you are giving too many of them out to people who aren't doing any other play.

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