BIG QUESTION REGARDING INCREASING ODDS/NEED MATHEMATICIANS
Trust me, if you're winning 80% over 10k hands with no big hit, then something is amiss with out a doubt.( correlated shuffling) I don't think it has anything to do with playing multiple hands. I don't know why it has to be the Wizard to tell you this, unless you think he is keeping some highly guarded secret. There are other people that can do the math as well as he can. Even if it were to add a small amount by playing all 6 hands, this should not account for your incredible win rate.Quote: paigow1986why do I think ive been doing so well? to be honest with you, I am very surprised I have done THIS well. i wasn't expecting to be up this much money by any means, but even if i was up only $100 after all this time, my theory would still be correct because i can honestly say ive played more hands against my friend at pai gow, than i have played at the casino. ive been going to the casino for roughly 10 years now (im 27 years old), and i can honestly say that i have lost anywhere between 10k to 20k, with a winning percentage of about 5%. for the past 2 years ive been playing against my buddy and my win percentage is about 75-80%, and im up nearly $10k.
i didn't expect to be up THIS much, i only had planned on winning $500 or so after about 10k hands so i can rub it in his face and say "told ya so", because even if it was only $10 im up after all these hands and all these times, my theory would STILL be correct in saying that it shaves off the tiniest fraction of a percent as far as EV goes. to be honest with you, i think the only reason why the wizard has not commented on this thread is because he has never had a circumstance like this so complex brought to him before(as far as one person playing multiple hands in a carnival game where a progressive is involved). everyone knows that the casino wins at the end of the day regardless, if there is 1 person playing at that table, or 6 people playing, the EV of the casino stays the same...but what about that ONE INDIVIDUAL'S EV when he plays multiple hands? if the min/max bet on the progressive is $5 and the casino gives me the option of playing all 6 hands, i refuse to believe any mathematician will tell me EV stays exactly the same. if the wizard is willing to tell me that i am wrong, then i will go on living my life knowing that for 2 years and over 10,000 hands, i was pretty much the luckiest person OF ALL TIME.
by the way, I have a host now, and while the host did tell me that they would let me play 3 hands on pai gow maximum, they told me that I would only be allowed to bet ONE hand on the fortune progressive...why is that? my friend will not only let me the bonus's on all 6 hands, but he will actually let me ONLY play the bonus's on 6 hands, which to me, shaves off A LOT of the EV in a situation like that. I just REALLY wish the wizard would chime in and tell me what his opinion is on this. it would honestly mean a lot more to me than anything else anyone else in this forum has said
i come on this website almost every other day now and see all the discussions people make/argue about. i also see that mike (the wizard) comments on a LOT of these boards. i just never understood why he never took the time to comment on mine. i know you guys ALL say im wrong, and that my odds of winning money do not increase at ALL, but it would really mean a lot to me to hear him say it(or type it).
You do not need a mathematician (although many have told you that you are wrong). All you need to do is click here and you will see that E[X+Y] = E[X] + E[Y]. What that means is that if you play two hands at once (E[X+Y]), your expectation is the same as playing them one at a time (E[X] + E[Y]).
That is it. This is a simple law of mathematics. You are not asking a hard or ground-breaking question. You may as well as if 1+1=2. You don't need a mathematician to answer this question any more that you need a mechanical engineer to open a jar of pickles.
guess it makes sense you have a the same chances of hitting on the progressive pai gow for $300,000 playing 1 hand as you do 6.....
thanks for that Wikipedia article my friend.
Quote: paigow1986well not EVERYONE said I was wrong. but I guess you're right. 3 years and 100,000 hands later and im still just getting lucky
guess it makes sense you have a the same chances of hitting on the progressive pai gow for $300,000 playing 1 hand as you do 6.....
thanks for that Wikipedia article my friend.
Obviously if you play 6x as many hands you have more of a chance of hitting the jackpot.
What I said was that you have the same expectation whether you play 6 hands at once or 6 hands, one at a time.
Also note that the expectation of ALL your bets is negative, and when you add up a bunch of negative numbers, you get a (surprise!) a negative number. Which means that you are a losing player. Now, if you got lucky and hit a $300,000 jackpot once, good for you. Just remember that the house makes a profit on that bet overall. So while you might have gotten lucky and hit it, that has nothing to do with your expectation.
You can buy a lottery ticket too. If you get lucky and win the jackpot, good for you. Of course it is possible to get lucky and win no matter how badly the odds are stacked against you. But that doesn't change the expectation. Some of the suckers have to get lucky once in a while or the rest of the suckers wouldn't keep coming back. If you are one of the ones who got lucky, more power to you.
