BIG QUESTION REGARDING INCREASING ODDS/NEED MATHEMATICIANS
"Also you admit that in aggregate the 6 people are losing so why would you win by playing 6 spots. Do you honestly think the cards care who is playing them."
while I do agree that the house ALWAYS wins (never disputed that), you, are once again missing the point. all im trying to say that, by ONE INDIVIDUAL playing more hands, that ONE INDIVIDUAL increases his/her chances of making payable hands, right? I mean at least give me THAT much...and that if you're doing that, over and over and over again, over time, not only will you get to see more cards, and play more hands, you will eventually hit those big bonus's/progressives that I have been talking about all while NOT losing more money. let me quote my good friend beachbumbabs:
"One player is benefiting from all 6 bets that has a Hit Frequency of 19.1944% (source: WoO most-used Paytable for Fortune PaiGow), which is larger than the 16.66% share per bet of 6 bonus bets; in other words, you will virtually always have a hedge on, with bonus pays on a 2 to 1 or higher basis. You will never lose more than 50% of the value of your bonus bets under this scenario (bet 6, retain 3 with the lowest payoff of 2 to 1 on a straight) in the long run, where as a single spot player, you will lose this bet 4 out of 5 times. This increases, as a single player covering 6 bets, your Hit Frequency on this bet to over 100%, but decreases your return inversely (you're not receiving 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 or whatever on the full amount, but only 1/6 of it per bonus hand)."
can you comprehend that? do you GET that? you mind telling me what your degree is? its certainly not English. i could care less about capitalizing, punctuation, spelling and grammar, but for someone who claims to be oh-so-mighty, and correct, and "college educated", its the dunning kruger EFFECT, not AFFECT, you big educated college man you! the word AFFECT means to produce change in something, the word EFFECT means the result of something or the ability to bring out a result...
see that! you learned something new today!
Quote: paigow1986twirdman: so what you're telling me is, mathextremist was wrong in saying that "You'd need to evaluate the distribution of player hand outcomes (number of wins/pushes/losses) for all different dealer hands. So that's all calculable, but it's an analysis that you should expect to pay for." you can figure it all out by comparing it to how far you can get in a car going x amount of miles in x amount of time. I mean, that's not apples an oranges, you're right, IM the idiot!!
"Also you admit that in aggregate the 6 people are losing so why would you win by playing 6 spots. Do you honestly think the cards care who is playing them."
while I do agree that the house ALWAYS wins (never disputed that), you, are once again missing the point. all im trying to say that, by ONE INDIVIDUAL playing more hands, that ONE INDIVIDUAL increases his/her chances of making payable hands, right? I mean at least give me THAT much...and that if you're doing that, over and over and over again, over time, not only will you get to see more cards, and play more hands, you will eventually hit those big bonus's/progressives that I have been talking about all while NOT losing more money. let me quote my good friend beachbumbabs:
can you comprehend that? do you GET that? you mind telling me what your degree is? its certainly not English. i could care less about capitalizing, punctuation, spelling and grammar, but for someone who claims to be oh-so-mighty, and correct, and "college educated", its the dunning kruger EFFECT, not AFFECT, you big educated college man you! the word AFFECT means to produce change in something, the word EFFECT means the result of something or the ability to bring out a result...
see that! you learned something new today!
Do you honestly not get what it means to approximate a result. I was giving an example of something where an exact result is incredibly complex but very simple mental math gives a very accurate approximation. This is the same result we have here you are getting a very good approximation on something where an exact answer is incredibly complex. Also yes everyone has said your chance of hitting those big wins goes up but you win less. For instance in pai gow with a natural 7 card straight flush you will win between 12,500 and 40,000 with a 5 dollar bet and with a 30 dollar bet you will win between 75,000 and 240,000. Also in some instances you are losing more money for instance say hand 1 has a flush given I bet 30 on that hand I win 120 and lose nothing if I bet 6 hands I would then win 20 and lose 25 so I have lost 5 dollars. I mean how many people have to explain to you that you win more often but you win a smaller amount. Now some people feel this is a fine proposition a 25% chance to win 500 might sound better to some people then a 5% chance to win 2500 but it is meaningless to say that the 25% chance to win 500 is a better bet because you win more. The expected value is the same.
And you are right my degree isn't in English it is in mathematics and I am one of those people who is earning his PhD in mathematics. I admit I made a mistake when I was typing and often make mistakes with spelling or typing because I kind of suck at spelling and sometimes I mistype because I am not fully focused. Now can you admit you often make mistakes in mathematics because you lack basic education in probability and can't seem to separate probability of a bet winning and expected value of that bet. The two are related but they are not the same.
"For instance in pai gow with a natural 7 card straight flush you will win between 12,500 and 40,000 with a 5 dollar bet and with a 30 dollar bet you will win between 75,000 and 240,000"
WRONG. I don't know where you're from, but where im from, the pai gow bonus is a min/max of $5. know what I mean, jellybean? that means you can not bet less than $5, and you can not bet more than $5, you can ONLY BET $5. there are 4 casinos around where I live (ceasers Windsor, greektown, mgm grand and motorcity), and whenever you go to their paigow tables, the MIN/MAX on the bonus is $5......SO ONCE AGAIN, IM NOT RISKING MORE/LESS AT ALL!!!! do you FINALLY get it?!?! does it FINALLY make sense to you?!? one more thing...
"This is the same result we have here you are getting a very good approximation on something where an exact answer is incredibly complex."
humor me...do the math, prove me wrong. I mean YOU'RE the guy ive been looking for right? the title of this thread is "BIG QUESTION REGARDING INCREASING ODDS/NEED MATHEMATICIANS", you are HIM, you are the chosen one good sir!!! so bust out those skills, show me what you can do with that phD and prove me wrong!! ive been waiting a LONGGG time for this. im very good at math, so I will be sure to look through everything you input, all the variables, the odds, etc, and if you prove me wrong, I admit defeat, but that has yet to happen, wanna know why? because nobody on this forum is smart enough. I honestly do wish I could pay you, because I really would.
remember, the bet with my buddy was, that playing more than 1 hand in carnival games increases your chances of making money EVEN IF ITS THE TINIEST FRACTION OF A PERCENT, if you were to do all this math and it comes out to a thousandth of a decimal point, I will be right, and my friend will owe me another $500 on top of the $10,000 he's already lost to me. so please, im BEGGING you to prove me wrong. show the world I suffer from the dunning kruger aff---I mean effect!!! lolz. I crack myself up sometimes....
Quote: paigow1986twirdman: everything you said meant NOTHING...wanna know why?
"For instance in pai gow with a natural 7 card straight flush you will win between 12,500 and 40,000 with a 5 dollar bet and with a 30 dollar bet you will win between 75,000 and 240,000"
WRONG. I don't know where you're from, but where im from, the pai gow bonus is a min/max of $5. know what I mean, jellybean? that means you can not bet less than $5, and you can not bet more than $5, you can ONLY BET $5. there are 4 casinos around where I live (ceasers Windsor, greektown, mgm grand and motorcity), and whenever you go to their paigow tables, the MIN/MAX on the bonus is $5......SO ONCE AGAIN, IM NOT RISKING MORE/LESS AT ALL!!!! do you FINALLY get it?!?! does it FINALLY make sense to you?!? one more thing...
OK this makes no sense at all you were talking about betting 30 on one compared to 5 on 6. If 5 is min/max you can't bet 30 on one so your question is meaningless. I can't even begin to evaluate what you are asking now since it is a nonsensical question. You are basically saying what is better doing x or doing y someone responds well they are the same because y does this and x does this and you are responding oh but you can't do x so you are wrong. The answer you asked has been answered if you want to reformulate your question you can but make sure it makes sense.
Also why would I humor you by doing the math I have classes I'm taking and classes I'm TAing along with all the work that comes with that. You offer me nothing and expect to get everything. Let's pretend you were a carpenter and I asked you to build me a shelf and said I wasn't going to pay for it but hey your a carpenter why not. You'd be right to say piss off so why should I do it for nothing. If you want I could recommend some books on the topic and you could learn yourself but don't expect someone to do the work if you pay nothing.
and btw, if I WAS a carpenter, and someone told me I wasn't, and I didn't have the ability to make them a kitchen table for example....this is the type of person I AM...I would go out, buy the materials, invite them to my house, make them WATCH ME put it together, put it together flawlessly, give them the kitchen table, and tell them to kiss my ass. sorta like how my friend told me I was a "ploppy" for saying all this about playing multiple hands, he said i didn't know what i was talking about, i said he didn't know what he was talking about, and i put my money where my mouth was. but once again, THATS JUST THE PERSON I AM....
toodles!!
Quote: paigow1986once again my friend....you're NOT READING....pai gow is the only game where the min/max is $5. as far as uth, 3 card, 4 card and the other games go, you can bet whatever you want on those. but here's what I gather from you now...what you're saying to me is pretty much "you're wrong because I say you are, I have the mental ability to prove you wrong but I refuse to because you wont pay me, my time is SUPER valuable"....if that was the case, why would you be sitting your ass at home bullshitting with me on an internet forum about gambling all afternoon long on a Friday? lolz. I mean we have literally been going back and forth meaninglessly for the last 4 hours...don't you think if you applied that time into proving me wrong, you would of already come up with this complex equation by now? you're too cute....
Fine then in that case replace pai gow with 3 card poker and natural 7 card SF with mini royal and you get the exact same thing I listed before. Also your cute for thinking that these computations can be done in the 4 hours of no effort while I'm watching TV. Also what would writing the equation do if you can't even get the simplifications I did for a raffle how could you hope to get the more complicated math used to solve the harder problem. Again I went to school for 4 years and will be in school another 5 years but you want me to explain it all to you in an afternoon because you asked. That's not how it works here nice list of math books for you to read just go through and find books on probability. http://www.e-booksdirectory.com/mathematics.php
while we're on the subject of suggesting reading things to each other I know neither one of us will ever do, hows this sound...you can read the Wikipedia entry about jesus Christ!! here ya go! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesus_christ
read it, and tell me what you learned! as soon as you gathered all the information you can get out of that link, I will click on your link and tell you all the information I gathered!! we can be friendsssss!!
thanks for your input!!!
I never said I was GAYQuote: boymimboDo you beleive there is a gay wolf watching over your anus? May I direct you to the local mental health authorities?
Now to the question at hand:
- the odds of you pulling a 2 and/or 7 is 32.08% on one hand for an EV of $27.74 assuming the straight pays 5 units.
- if you are playing 2 $15 bonuses, guess what, your EV is still $27.74 assuming the straight pays 5 units. The odds of winning 0 hands is 45.2339%, 1 hand 45.3775%, and 2 hands 9.3885%
This will extend out to all hands.
wanna know why? because if you are sitting on a pai gow table, and you go to hand one of your buddies on the table a 100 dollar bill, the dealer will tell you that is NOT allowed....WHY WOULD THEY SAY THAT?!?!? why aren't you allowed to give money to other players on pai gow? its allowed on blackjack, its allowed on texas hold em, why not pai gow? OHH YEAH!! because of cheating!!!! and knowledge from using their cards!!!
btw, not a bad thing if you're gay bro, the USA is legalizing that shit quicker than marijuana.
Quote: paigow1986sooooo you're in a university that doesn't have class on a weekday? dude just stop, you have been on this forum about as long as I have, with about as many posts, wanna know what that means to me? that you have 0 credibility. you give me links to a website with math books!!! cmon man! just stop it, if you're not going to help me prove me right or wrong, just stop posting...don't you see everyone else followed that trend?
while we're on the subject of suggesting reading things to each other I know neither one of us will ever do, hows this sound...you can read the Wikipedia entry about jesus Christ!! here ya go! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesus_christ
read it, and tell me what you learned! as soon as you gathered all the information you can get out of that link, I will click on your link and tell you all the information I gathered!! we can be friendsssss!!
thanks for your input!!!
You didn't go to college did you. For one classes aren't every day in the week its normally either MWF or TTh now I did have classes on Friday but they are in the morning and I'm out around 1 and live on the east coast so yeah was out of class long before this started. Also about playing the bonus you realize you can just hire the 6 guys and give them the money before you get to the casino right. Also in the casinos I've been to I've never seen the casino care about people sharing money at pai gow. Again though if you have an edge playing 6 hands of pai gow why don't 6 random guys playing pai gow have that same combined edge on the bonus. If they do have that same combined edge how is the casino not losing money on the table when its full. And if they did lose money every time the table was full why wouldn't they reduce the size of the table I mean it makes no sense to pay a dealer to deal out a game that you are losing money in.
So again your premise is ruined by just simple math approximations or by the fact casinos routinely have full pai gow tables and no casino that I'm aware of has decided to lower the number of spots at a table. Oh also I have read the wiki entry on Jesus Christ a couple times actually. So now are you going to read the list of 500 books I posted.
The analysis on the lower HE for the Pai Gow envy has already been done and is on the Wizard of Odds site.
The experiment for HE is a simple gestalt one with no math or probability required. That is, the HE for each player is the same no matter where they sit at the table. We know that to be true. This is true for any game with a bonus where you cannot change your bet after knowing your cards. Envy bonuses are an exception, and we know that the HE lowers when there are more players playing.
Therefore, a player's expected loss is simply the amount bet x the house edge. And that doesn't matter whether they are playing one spot or all six. If you are playing one spot bonus at $30 or $5 at one spot, your expected loss is the same. Your VARIANCE will be different, but the expected loss is the same. And when you state, "you win more or you lose more", that is a claim that the expected loss is different. It isn't, with the exception of envy bonuses.
There are reasons why you can't play more than 2 or 3 spots at a table (depending on the game) and that is because the knowledge of the cards can affect your play strategy on the regular bet. This applies to Let it Ride (you won't raise a SF draw if you know that the other cards to the SF are in other people's hands), Caribbean Stud (you will raise an Ax all of the time if you know that all of the other As are not in the player's hand), 3CP, 4 card poker, and Pai Gow Poker. The bonus payout doesn't pay and more or less.
And here is my transcript from the University of Toronto in case you don't believe me:
(which has self-destructed)
Quote: boymimboActually Twirdman your statement is only somewhat true. More players playing the envy lower the HE on the envy because of the fact that every player receives the Envy bonus if playing $5 or more on that bet. However, PaiGow I think is not playing that bet because according to him, he can only bet $5.
The analysis on the lower HE for the Pai Gow envy has already been done and is on the Wizard of Odds site.
The experiment for HE is a simple gestalt one with no math or probability required. That is, the HE for each player is the same no matter where they sit at the table. We know that to be true. This is true for any game with a bonus where you cannot change your bet after knowing your cards. Envy bonuses are an exception, and we know that the HE lowers when there are more players playing.
Your right of course I was only considering the bonus bets with no envy bonus. Though I will say since he say 5 dollar min/max his house edge doesn't change by playing 6 seats instead of 1 it changes by having 6 spots played instead of 1. Know this is a pedantic difference and obvious for the most part but want to make sure he realizes that playing more hands doesn't help him assuming other people were already playing those hands. Also yeah for any game with a fixed payout you just play enough to qualify for the fixed payout and never more since you are sacrificing EV for every extra dollar you spend.
boymimbo: I never questioned yours or anyone elses intelligence, ONLY twirdmans....I read what you said (and saw your transcript). but you could of told me that WITHOUT having to post the transcript because I actually believe that mission146, tringlomane, mathextremist and you are quite knowledgeable with math. i just think there is more to the equation than just saying "EV doesn't increase or decrease at all when playing more than 1 hand on bonus's in carnival games". that will never make sense to me, i trust mathextremist the most when he stated that it would have to be about a full days worth of analysis and math and i would have to pay that person (which i would be willing to do). with that aside, please just answer me these few yes/no questions:
1. does playing more than 1 hand increase your chances of making payable hands?
2. when playing pai gow, we can both agree that having a joker plays a huge part in making your hand better, do you have a better chance of getting the joker with 7 cards rather than 42?
3. if me and you were to walk into a gas station and buy mega millions tickets, and i were to buy $100 in hopes of hitting $300 million, and you were to buy $1 in hopes of hitting $300 million, would you then tell me that our expected value is the same? and your odds are just as good as mine for hitting ANYTHING?
4. are you SURE that this topic we speak of doesn't require "no math or probability" at all, and that's its a "simple gestalt one"?
pay close attention to question #4, i ask this because how would that work in a situation like pai gow (where min/max is $5), and lets use the straight as an example, wizard of odds says the return on a straight in pai gow is 0.197454, lets just say we are supposed to lose 4/5 on my bonus bet(80% of the time). which means im bound to hit it 1 out of 5 times getting me back 2 to 1 (3 chips total) out of the 6 hands that ive played. you're telling me, that even including that complex variable on ONE INDIVIDUAL playing more than 1 hand doesn't require any type of math probability at ALL???? one person playing one hand gets ONE chance...and that doesn't change my expected value AT ALL?
i just find it very hard to believe that its not that "complex" at all. i even went to that http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm, and it doesn't do it for multiple hands. i cant seem to find anyone that's even a little good at excel. i don't doubt you're not a smart guy, i just think you're mistaken here about how complex something like this COULD be...
Quote: paigow1986twirdman: i don't think im getting through to you, maybe you're just not reading my posts through carefully. I DONT CARE WHAT THE CASINOS CARE ABOUT. i am trying to tell you i understand that if 6 DIFFERENT people are playing on a table the house will be up money in the long run. I UNDERSTAND THAT. but do you understand when its ONE person playing 6 HANDS the EV of that single individual changes because he gets more hands and opportunities to hit the big bonus in a shorter amount of time BECAUSE he is playing those extra hands.
3. if me and you were to walk into a gas station and buy mega millions tickets, and i were to buy $100 in hopes of hitting $300 million, and you were to buy $1 in hopes of hitting $300 million, would you then tell me that our expected value is the same? and your odds are just as good as mine for hitting ANYTHING?
Ok here this is a real easy one to do, similar to the raffle one, assuming your talking about the mega millions your chance of hitting the jackpot is 258,890,850. Assuming all of your tickets are different you have a 100/258,890,850 out of winning it so your expect value is 115.88 or 1.16 roughly per ticket. For a single ticket your odds of winning are 1/258,890,850 so your expected value is 1.16 or 1.16 per ticket exactly the same. It gets slightly more complicated for multiple prizes if you have 100 tickets since you have overlap between tickets. The two ticket case is pretty easy to do. You double your chance of winning everything but it cost twice as much to play so your expected value per dollar spent is the same. You chance of winning increase but so does the amount you are spending. Or if the amount spending doesn't go up then the amount you win goes down. I mean if the amount you spend and the amount you pay stays the same then yeah your EV goes up obviously but you are not ever in this situation.
2. Yes. Of course, if one of your six hands has the joker, the other five don't. If none of your hands have the joker, then you know that the dealer has a 63.64% of having it, which is precisely why you're not allowed to play six hands.
3. Yes, your expected value is 300 times x the expected value of one ticket. The house edge is the same.
4. Yep, provided that the ENVY bonus doesn't apply. The math and probability that is listed on the Wizard's Website applies to a single hand. Obviously the odds of you winning a Royal/SF/4A/Flush/Straight/3K is much higher when you receive a joker, but that just lowers the odds of the other hands by a corresponding amount.
I was just messing around If you go back it fits right in with some banter i had with the OP ill past it here ......Quote: boymimboAxelwolf, I was just quoting the moronic comment made by the OP, not you.
Quote: paigow1986
axelwolf: im terrified, I just hope they don't also bust me for my poker table and poker chips as well....we're high rollers, our tourneys are $20 buy ins!!.
Lets hope not since you have such a nice passive demeanor, If you did I'm sure your anal region would stay unmolested.
He paigow1986 then commented that he was glad to see I was worried about his anal region
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If you add all that to what you said, it was funny as hell.
Let x2 represent the return of the player in seat 2.
If they are different players:
player 1 expects to earn E[x1], which is based on the house edge of the game (and is negative).
player 2 expects to earn E[x2], which is based on the house edge of the game (and is negative).
Together, they expect to earn E[x1] + E[x2].
If they are the same player:
the one player expects to earn E[x1] + E[x2].
It's the same, and it's negative. Questions?
They may tell you NO for many reasons that has already been discussed. Some places let you play 2 handsQuote: paigow1986I think it shaves off a substantial amount of the HE and EV. like I said in the OP, the bet was that if playing more than 1 hand in carnival games increases your chances of winning money even if its the smallest fraction of a percent. there is no way playing 1 hand has the same EV/HE as an individual playing more than 1 hand, I need someone to show that to me, make it make sense....im actually going to the casino tonight with a GOOD amount of money on me, im going to ask them what it will take for them to let me play just THREE hands and they can set them however they want for me, what are the chances of them telling me yes?
so you have your math. I have my math, but something tells me we are both missing the BIG picture, that's why I need a real deal kind of guy to set this up for me and not give me some bland answer like you just did. this thread is now almost 13 pages long, you must of missed it where about 6 other people wrote the same exact thing you did and I totally dismissed them because its way more complex than you guys all think it is (as mathextremist and beachbumbabs have stated as well). thanks for chiming in though.
Quote: paigow1986because wizard of odds states that the return on a straight for someone playing 1 hand is roughly every 1/5 times(0.197454), well ive got 6 hands. which means that in 2 rounds, (12 hands total), I am mathematically guaranteed at least 2-3 straights out of 12 times.
This is wrong, but it also explains a lot about why you've been so ready to reject the facts that everyone else here has been telling you.
Quote:so you have your math. I have my math, but something tells me we are both missing the BIG picture, that's why I need a real deal kind of guy to set this up for me and not give me some bland answer like you just did. this thread is now almost 13 pages long, you must of missed it where about 6 other people wrote the same exact thing you did and I totally dismissed them because its way more complex than you guys all think it is (as mathextremist and beachbumbabs have stated as well). thanks for chiming in though.
Your math is wrong. You need to learn the distinction between the probability of an event and the expected value of a random variable.
The probability of winning one or more hands out of six is obviously greater than the probability of winning one hand out of only one. That's no different than saying the chances of flipping heads with a coin is greater if you try six times than if you try once (or if you flip six coins at once).
The expected value (house edge) on your money is exactly the same regardless of whether you play one hand or six hands. That's no different than saying the house edge on a fair coin flip game is zero regardless of how many flips you make.
If you want a "real deal kind of guy to set this up for you" and enumerate the average probability of each possible outcome in the distribution for six hands against a single dealer's hand, you should expect to pay for that work. It requires software. It is not, as you believe, a simple binomial, or even a simple multinomial, because the multinomial distribution requires a fixed probability of any given event for each trial. In the case of card games, the question of winning or losing has to do with the dealer's hand as well as the player's hand.
However, the mean of that six-handed distribution is not different from the mean of the single-handed distribution. What's changed is the variance. That's why you don't need anyone to set up anything if that's all you care about. And you also don't need to do any meaningful work if all you care about is an approximated distribution, because multiplying out the single-hand distribution six times gets you there.
But the majority of your replies, such as to dwheatley (who knows exactly what he's talking about) and to me (who also knows exactly what he's talking about), demonstrate that you are ignorant of the distinction between these two concepts: the probability distribution itself vs. the mean of that distribution. And your quote above, about being "mathematically guaranteed," also demonstrates you are ignorant of even more fundamental concepts related to independent random probabilities. There's nothing wrong with that -- certainly nobody knows everything -- but being belligerent to the very folks you've asked for information is just rude. You've been advised to read up on statistics but you haven't. At this point I'd wager that nobody here is going to give you a free semester's worth of math tutoring over the Internet, certainly not when you've been as petulant, profane, and admittedly dismissive as you have been.
"The expected value (house edge) on your money is exactly the same regardless of whether you play one hand or six hands. That's no different than saying the house edge on a fair coin flip game is zero regardless of how many flips you make."
because you compare playing more than 1 hand of carnival games where there are bonus bets/payouts to FLIPPING A COIN...I can not possibly take you seriously....why haven't I ever said that playing more than 1 spot of baccarat increases your chance of winning? wanna know why? BECAUSE IT DOESNT MATTER IF YOU PLAY MORE THAN 1 SPOT OF BACCARAT, ITS ALL THE SAME. that is heads or tails.
"In the case of card games, the question of winning or losing has to do with the dealer's hand as well as the player's hand."
you're WRONG again pal. when I play uth, 3 card, or 4 card against my buddy, as I have stated 100 times before, HE WILL LET ME PLAY ONLY THE BONUS'S. so guess what, THE DEALERS HAND DOESN'T MATTER!!
"If you want a "real deal kind of guy to set this up for you" and enumerate the average probability of each possible outcome in the distribution for six hands against a single dealer's hand, you should expect to pay for that work. It requires software. It is not, as you believe, a simple binomial, or even a simple multinomial, because the multinomial distribution requires a fixed probability of any given event for each trial."
so what you're saying is...YOU DONT KNOW HOW TO DO THE MATH I AM ASKING YOU TO DO.....I need special software and a special someone, which you just admitted, you have NEITHER, as does everyone else in this forum, they just have their educated opinions, as do I, which I am completely entitled to.
"But the majority of your replies, such as to dwheatley (who knows exactly what he's talking about) and to me (who also knows exactly what he's talking about), demonstrate that you are ignorant of the distinction between these two concepts: the probability distribution itself vs. the mean of that distribution. And your quote above, about being "mathematically guaranteed," also demonstrates you are ignorant of even more fundamental concepts related to independent random probabilities."
this coming from the guy who in one sentence says "...you should expect to pay for that work. It requires software.", and then in the same breathe can say, "The expected value (house edge) on your money is exactly the same regardless of whether you play one hand or six hands. That's no different than saying the house edge on a fair coin flip game is zero regardless of how many flips you make."
so which one is it? do you know 100% what the math is? or do you not know? its gotta be one or the other, it cannot possibly be both. the reason I came on this website was because I was hoping to get an educated mathematical answer on how to figure something like this out. instead all I have got is people multiplying and dividing numbers and telling me its the same thing as a coin flip...looks like I am going to have to go to a university, find a math professor that also has access to some probability software or something, and ask him what the deal is, because you guys know just as much as I do on this matter, and that's that. I know that your username is "mathextremist" and you have spent a lot of your personal time on this website for the last 3 years of your life (judging by your 3357 posts), but please sir, enough of the name calling (belligerent, ignorant, rude and my personal favorite petulant), just because you're the most popular guy on this website, doesn't make you a better person than me.
thanks for understanding...
Quote: paigow1986
"The expected value (house edge) on your money is exactly the same regardless of whether you play one hand or six hands. That's no different than saying the house edge on a fair coin flip game is zero regardless of how many flips you make."
because you compare playing more than 1 hand of carnival games where there are bonus bets/payouts to FLIPPING A COIN...I can not possibly take you seriously....why haven't I ever said that playing more than 1 spot of baccarat increases your chance of winning? wanna know why? BECAUSE IT DOESNT MATTER IF YOU PLAY MORE THAN 1 SPOT OF BACCARAT, ITS ALL THE SAME. that is heads or tails.
"In the case of card games, the question of winning or losing has to do with the dealer's hand as well as the player's hand."
you're WRONG again pal. when I play uth, 3 card, or 4 card against my buddy, as I have stated 100 times before, HE WILL LET ME PLAY ONLY THE BONUS'S. so guess what, THE DEALERS HAND DOESN'T MATTER!!
"If you want a "real deal kind of guy to set this up for you" and enumerate the average probability of each possible outcome in the distribution for six hands against a single dealer's hand, you should expect to pay for that work. It requires software. It is not, as you believe, a simple binomial, or even a simple multinomial, because the multinomial distribution requires a fixed probability of any given event for each trial."
so what you're saying is...YOU DONT KNOW HOW TO DO THE MATH I AM ASKING YOU TO DO.....I need special software and a special someone, which you just admitted, you have NEITHER, as does everyone else in this forum, they just have their educated opinions, as do I, which I am completely entitled to.
"But the majority of your replies, such as to dwheatley (who knows exactly what he's talking about) and to me (who also knows exactly what he's talking about), demonstrate that you are ignorant of the distinction between these two concepts: the probability distribution itself vs. the mean of that distribution. And your quote above, about being "mathematically guaranteed," also demonstrates you are ignorant of even more fundamental concepts related to independent random probabilities."
this coming from the guy who in one sentence says "...you should expect to pay for that work. It requires software.", and then in the same breathe can say, "The expected value (house edge) on your money is exactly the same regardless of whether you play one hand or six hands. That's no different than saying the house edge on a fair coin flip game is zero regardless of how many flips you make."
thanks for understanding...
OK he mentioned the variance changes and you would need software to calculate that. Variance is different then house edge I mean we are using words found in probability do you actually know what any of them mean. Also it is quite easy to say you are wrong about being guaranteed to win by playing 6 hands. Also why would you think a college professor or anyone would do this for you just because you asked. People don't work for free. Also ignorant and petulant are great words to describe you. You come in here demanding we do something, we give you approximations try to carefully explain it to you but tell you some of the more advanced stuff is time consuming and unnecessary so we aren't doing it then you are complaining that we aren't wasting our time to answer a question that none of us care about. The exact variance of the game is meaningless since its a negative expectation game so no one plans to gamble on it professionally. I mean what do we gain by wasting our time doing this for you.
TOODLES!
Initialise random number generator
Shuffle two sets of cards or whatever
Initialise counters
Do N = 1 to 1000000
. . . Use Set 1 to deal a game with your first idea (shuffle new shoe if needed)
. . . Use Set 2 to deal a game with your second idea (shuffle new shoe if needed)
. . . Update counters
. . . Keep info for any analysis
. . . (Perhaps every 10000 print out where you are)
. . . End Do
Print out counters.
Analyse anything else (e.g. highest balance, runs of wins/losses).
Recommend Mersenne to create random numbers based on initial state of date/time/some characters
I even looked up this marin mersenne character you speak of and all the formulas and laws he discovered....its all foreign to me though..
Quote: paigow1986the reason I came on this website was because I was hoping to get an educated mathematical answer on how to figure something like this out. instead all I have got is people multiplying and dividing numbers and telling me its the same thing as a coin flip...looks like I am going to have to go to a university, find a math professor that also has access to some probability software or something, and ask him what the deal is, because you guys know just as much as I do on this matter,
You've been given the educated mathematical answers and have rejected them because you don't understand the basics -- and because, as you admit in a later post, you're trolling. Goodbye.
(a) Try this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_twister instead. Ignore the maths part, the code is there.Quote: paigow1986....looked up this marin mersenne....
(b) The likely answer to your original question, without getting into too many details of the game itself, is betting the same amount in total, with (a) small bets more often or (b) bigger bets less often: assuming the payouts and odds remain the same throughout the game, there is little, if any, difference in expected profit/loss but there is an increase in variance (i.e. how near the expected long term average you will be).
As a simple albeit extreme example using heads/tails - one bet of $100 will either win or lose $100, so while on average you will win $0 (in a fair game) you will always be $100 away from the "Average". With 100 bets of $1 - again you will on average win $0 but very likely be within $15 either way. (Mathematicians will quote 2 or 3 SDs, SQRT(npq) and np if you care about more details.)
lets assume for the moment there is a LITTLE difference, that's all I have been trying to say this entire time, that there is a LITTLE difference. another question I ask you is, would playing 1 hand on one round at a time still be considered the same as someone playing 6 hands on one round at the same time? I understand that HE/EV does not change with each particular hand up against the dealer, but that one individual playing multiple hands in 1 round HE/EV absolutely HAS to change. I don't know if you read this thread front to back, but I am currently doing a test trial of this with my pal, and over the last 2 years I have taken him for almost $10,000 and I only came in for about 100 bucks!! at this rate, I can NEVER be down to him, if I played for another year, at the pace im going at (with my betting patterns), I would STILL be up money...and if the next year came after that, I would probably still be playing with his money. even if I was up only $100 after 2 years, I could STILL say to him, "ay bro, I still win against you way more than I win at the casinos...$100 lasted me this long, that's incredible! my odds went up JUST A TAD DIDNT THEY?"
the more hands I play, the more inevitable it is that I hit the big jackpot bonus's(or the 2nd biggest, or 3rd biggest). I mean, if its all mathematical, and my odds of hitting five aces for instance are 1 in 30,000.... well ive played well over 10,000 hands with the guy, aren't I mathematically supposed to get my five aces within the next 20,000 hands...MATHEMATICALLY SPEAKING??
Quote: BuzzardNOT AT ALL !
Rooted in the Gambler's Fallacy, I see. Very well:
Quote: Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are DeadROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
(He picks it up and puts it in his money bag. The process is repeated.)
Heads.
(Again.)
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
(Again.)
Heads.
(Again.)
Heads.
GUILDENSTERN (flipping a coin): There is an art to the building up of suspense.
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
GUILDENSTERN (flipping another): Though it can be done by luck alone.
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
GUILDENSTERN: If that's the word I'm after.
ROSENCRANTZ (raises his head at GUILDENSTERN): Seventy-six love.
(GUILDENSTERN gets up but has nowhere to go. He spins another coin over his shoulder without looking at it, his attention being directed at his environment or lack of it.)
Heads.
GUILDENSTERN: A weaker man might be moved to re-examine his faith, if in nothing else at least in the law of probability.
(He slips a coin over his shoulder as he goes to look upstage.)
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
(GUILDENSTERN, examining the confines of the stage, flips over two more coins, as he does so, one by one of course. ROSENCRANTZ announces each of them as "heads".)
GUILDENSTERN (musing): The law of probability, as it has been oddly asserted, is something to do with the proposition that if six monkeys (he has surprised himself)... if six monkeys were...
ROSENCRANTZ: Game?
GUILDENSTERN: Were they?
ROSENCRANTZ: Are you?
GUILDENSTERN (understanding): Games. (Flips a coin.) The law of averages, if I have got this right, means that if six monkeys were thrown up in the air for long enough they would land on their tails about as often as they would land on their -
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads. (He picks up the coin.)
GUILDENSTERN: Which at first glance does not strike one as a particularly rewarding speculation, in either sense, even without the monkeys. I mean you wouldn't bet on it. I mean I would, but you wouldn't... (As he flips a coin.)
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
GUILDENSTERN: Would you? (Flips a coin.)
ROSENCRANTZ: Heads.
(Repeat.)
Heads. (He looks up at GUILDENSTERN - embarrassed laugh.) Getting a bit of a bore, isn't it?
GUILDENSTERN (coldly): A bore?
ROSENCRANTZ: Well...
GUILDENSTERN: What about suspense?
ROSENCRANTZ (innocently): What suspense?
(Small pause.)
GUILDENSTERN: It must be the law of diminishing returns... I feel the spell about to be broken. (Energising himself somewhat.)
(He takes out a coin, spins it high, catches it, turns it over on to the back of his other hand, studies the coin - and tosses it to ROSENCRANTZ. His energy deflates and he sits.)
Well, it was a even chance... if my calculations are correct.
ROSENCRANTZ: Eighty-five in a row - beaten the record!
mathextremist: cool story bro.
Here's how it works. You start with a 20 card deck, 10 - A of each suit, and the goal of the game is to match the dealer's card. Each player is dealt one card, and if you match the dealer's card value, you win 5 units, and if you don't, you lose.
That is, if the dealer has the Ace of Spades and you're dealt the Ace of Hearts you win five units. Otherwise you lose one unit.
The house advantage is pretty simple. Of the 19 cards left, there are 3 ways to win and 16 ways to lose. For a single player game, the expected value is (5 x 3) - (1 x 16) / 19 = -1/19 = 5.2631579% (which is exactly the same as roulette by the by).
Okay, now you are told that the minimum bet = maximum bet = $60, and you have the choice to split it evenly between up to 6 spots. Now, I choose $60 so that you're betting an even amount of money whether you play 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 spots.
Okay, got it so far? This is good, because we have a simple game where the odds are easy to figure out and we have an exagerrated effect of card removal which is present in all games where you remove cards when playing multiple spots.
Okay. So the player walks up and says I'm going to play one spot. $60, the dealer says.
-----
In three times of 19 he's going to match the dealer and win $300. The other 16 times he will miss and lost $60. The expected loss on a complete set of results (19 bets) is 300 x 3 - 16 x 60 = -$60/19 = $3.1578947
-------
Ok, then, let's try two spots at $30 each.
Well, there's three different result sets. There's WW, WL (2 ways), and LL, right.
Let's look at WW: The odds of WW are 3/19 * 2/18 = 6/342 = .0175439 of winning $300
Let's look at WL: The odds of WL are 3/19 * 16/18 = 48/342. Not coincidentally the odds of LW are 16/19 * 3/18 = 48/342. Therefore the total odds of 1 win and one loss is 96/342 = .2807018 of winning $120 ($30 x 5 - $30)
Now let's look at LL: The odds of LL are 16/19 * 15/18 = 240 / 342 = .70175439. of losing $60
Now you take the odds x the results. (.0175439 x $300) + (.2807018 x $120) + (.7017544 x $-60) = $3.1578947, which is EXACTLY the same as the single spot result.
-------
Well, guess what, this exact same amount continues to 5 players, so finally the player gets frustrated and plays all six. Ah, I gotcha now! That'll be $10 in each spot, please.
Let looks at WWWLLL. The odds of WWWLLL is 3/19 * 2/18 * 1/17 * 16 /16 * 15/15 * 14/14 = .00103199, and there are 20 ways of winning 3 times. It can be a win in spots 1,2,3 or 1,2,4 or 1,2,5 or 1,2,6 or 1,3,4 or 1,3,5 or 1,3,6 or 1,4,5 or 1,4,6 or 1,5,6 or 2,3,4 or 2,3,5 or 2,3,6 or 2,4,5 or 2,4,6 or 2,5,6 or 3,4,5 or 3,4,6 or 3,5,6 or 4,5,6. Therefore you multiply this by 20 to cover all combinations to get a .02063983 probability to win $120
Let's look at 2 wins and 4 losses. The odds of WWLLLL is 3/19 x 2/18 x 16/17 x 15/16 x 14/15 x 13/14 = .01341579, but there are 15 combinations of two wins available (1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 4-5, 4-6, and 5-6) so the probability of 2 wins and 4 losses is .20128389 to win $60.
Let's look at 1 win and 5 losses. The odds of WLLLLL is 3/19 x 16/18 x 15/17 x 14/15 x 13/15 x 12/14 = .08049536 and there are six combinations of one win available (1,2,3,4,5,6) so the probability of 1 win and 5 losses is .48297214 to break even ($10 x 5 - $50).
And finally lets look at all losses. The odds of LLLLLL is 16/19 x 15/18 x 14/17 x 13/16 x 12/15 x 11/14 = .29514964 and there is only one combination, so the probability of 0 wins is .29514964 to lose $60.
Add it all up: .02063983 x $120 + .20128389 x $60 + .4829714 x 0 - .29514964 x $60 = guess. $3.1578947.
--------------------------------------
So, I have given you a mathematical proof to give you a game where there is an effect of card removal which is very similar to any other carnival game out there. The goal is to match the dealer. The house edge is 5.2631579% for whether you play one spot or six, and this doesn't change.
Now, this analysis was completed on an airplane ride between Toronto and Montreal for a very simple game that I just made up. However, the mathematical proof is available (with enough work) for any card game with a great deal more work.
The important thing to notice is that while the # of combinations change based on the number of spots played, the end result doesn't change. Probabilities are multiplicative in nature. That is, it doesn't matter if player 1,2 and 3 win or player 2,3, and 6 win. The probability of three wins doesn't change, nor does it matter which spot you play it or which multitude of spots you play at.
Questions?
if person A is playing 1 hand on pai gow, $5min/max on bonus's, and his chances of getting a straight are 1 in every 5 times, then what are his chances of getting his money back on 3 rounds of play?
if person B is playing 6 hands on pai gow, $5min/max on bonus's, and his chances of getting a straight are 1 in every 5 times, then what are his chances of getting his money back on 3 rounds of play?
person A can go 3 rounds, and mathematically be favored to NOT get a straight at all out of the 3 times because the highest return on pai gow (the straight) only has a return of 1 out of every 5 times...correct?
person B can go 3 rounds, and because he's looking at 18 different hands(6 hands per play x 3 rounds), his chances of getting a straight are somewhere between 3-4/18 times. some runs it will be 3 times, some runs it will be 4 times, we will say anywhere between 3 and 4, I would say higher than 3.6 because of how close 18 is to 20.
now im not saying that this is the DEFINITIVE way of how this math is calculated. but when you're throwing bonus bet odds out there in the mix, things change A LOT when 1 person can look at 18 hands in 3 rounds as opposed to the person looking at 3 hands in 3 rounds. i don't know the exact figures, but i know EV changes, even if its just a LITTLE bit. not only do my odds of making a straight increase, but my odds of hitting ANYTHING ELSE increases as well. the more hands i get to play, the more inevitable it is that i make a big hand, whether it be the 7 card straight flush, or something a tad smaller such as the royal flush.
not only that. but i would like you to answer this question as well:
how would you calculate what the odds would be of person A getting the joker playing 1 spot per 3 rounds, as opposed to person B playing 6 spots per 3 rounds. we can all agree that having the joker improves your hand in pai gow greatly(its the only way you can make 5 aces). so if you would be so kind to figure that out it would be VERY interested. i would be VERY interested to learn how the EV DOESNT CHANGE AT ALL when it comes to being dealt a joker by playing multiple hands.....
once again, i appreciate your time.
If you ask the question, what are the odds that I break even given playing different #s of spots, that is a different question, because you are talking about a probability distribution which depends on the variance in the game, which differs wildly from game to game.
And if you look at my simple game, you can see that you are more likely to break even or better when you place the most number of spots. But your wins and your losses will be smaller, and you will likely go down the same amount per hand.
"(a) Try this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_twister instead. Ignore the maths part, the code is there."
and I guess mathextremist was also lying to me as well when he said:
"If you want a "real deal kind of guy to set this up for you" and enumerate the average probability of each possible outcome in the distribution for six hands against a single dealer's hand, you should expect to pay for that work. It requires software. It is not, as you believe, a simple binomial, or even a simple multinomial, because the multinomial distribution requires a fixed probability of any given event for each trial."
or when mission146 told me to check out this website: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm. until we found out that it couldn't calculate games playing multiple hands...
I guess they're all wrong, and you're right. right? the question I posed is EXACTLY the same as flipping a coin or picking a color!
ibeatyouraces: you're the man. i know im just some ploppy ass dealer that doesn't know a thing about math PERIOD. i know that because you dedicate all your time, and most of your life into this website, you're automatically a better person than i am, and higher on the totem pole as far as how cool/smart/funny people on this website think you are. i stand no chance against you my friend. you are Michael Jackson, i am tito, i get it.
btw, none of you guys answered the questions that i posed for boymimbo. its funny you all say "MULTIPLY, DIVIDE, ITS THERE!". but when i ask you what the odds of getting a joker for the guy playing 6 hands is versus the guy playing 1 hand, you guys completely disregard my questions and mr. popularity over here starts throwing insults. so what can i say? you guys are right, it makes more sense to play 1 hand, not 6, you have a better chance of getting 5 aces with 1 hand, not 6. if the return on my straight is 1/5 times, it makes more sense to play 1 hand per round as opposed to 6 per round because your chances of getting a return on your straight are way better with 1 hand. god bless America, and god bless this website. i finally found the answers im looking for!! you guys TOTALLY proved me wrong...
Quote: paigow1986all ive been trying to say is that playing more than 1 hand on pai gow increases your chances/odds/EV by a tiny little bit.
Nope. "Chances/odds/EV" are not all the same thing.
Playing more than one hand on Pai Gow increases your chance of winning at least one hand by a lot (not a tiny little bit), but the EV doesn't change at all.
And of course, the odds of breaking even or better is greater based on the number of hands played. But your net win will be greater if you play it on one hand vs six. Put it this way. A full house pays 5, meaning that if you play six hands, and get 5 nothings and a full house, you end up breaking even. But if you get the full house on the one hand that you play, you're up 5 units. There is a difference. You're just spreading out the variance over six hands.
Or think of it this way. When the dealer pulls the inevitable flush and a pair of Kings, and all of your hands win, do you feel fortunate playing six hands or one?
once again, i don't know if im making myself clear or not here. lets assume for the moment that its NOT pai gow, and im playing uth or 4 card, and im ONLY playing bonus's. rather than play $30 on 1 hand, i play $5 on 6 hands....how in the WORLD am i losing more by playing more? make that make sense to me please...
"Or think of it this way. When the dealer pulls the inevitable flush and a pair of Kings, and all of your hands win, do you feel fortunate playing six hands or one?"
so glad you bring this up. ive explained that ive probably played over 10,000 hands against my friend, so OBVIOUSLY he has had bomb hands before, he has had a full house with a pair of A's up front!! do i feel fortunate playing 6 hands when this happens? YES..want to know why?? because all it takes, is for me to have a flush or better on ANY ONE of my six hands and ive already broken even (on pai gow). had i been playing one hand, i would lose straight up...
now that's for pai gow. lets use that example for something like uth or 4 card, where once again ive explained over and over to you guys that THE DEALER'S HAND DOES NOT EVER MATTER. lets say on uth, the board reads, K K K A Q, the dealer has the fourth K. want to know how much that matters? ZERO. want to know why? because im getting paid at least 3 to 1 on ALL my hands, not only that, but im also going to get paid for a full house if any one of those 6 hands has an A or Q, not only that, but if by some chance one of those hands is J 10, i get paid more for that!! so to answer your question, am i more fortunate playing 6 hands, ABSOLUTELY. hell, when the game is uth or 4 card, we don't ever even flip the dealers cards over!
now that i have answered your guys' questions, i would like to for you to FINALLY answer mine.....ill even put it in caps so you don't forget. WHAT ARE MY CHANCES OF GETTING A JOKER IN PAI GOW WHEN IM PLAYING 6 HANDS AS OPPOSED TO PLAYING 1????? DO MY ODDS OF GETTING A JOKER INCREASE, DECREASE, OR STAY EXACTLY THE SAME??? thankssssss
Quote: paigow1986WHAT ARE MY CHANCES OF GETTING A JOKER IN PAI GOW WHEN IM PLAYING 6 HANDS AS OPPOSED TO PLAYING 1????? DO MY ODDS OF GETTING A JOKER INCREASE, DECREASE, OR STAY EXACTLY THE SAME???
You can answer this question for yourself.
1) What is the probability of observing a specific card if you shuffle a Pai Gow deck and turn over the first seven cards?
2) What is the probability of observing a specific card if you shuffle a Pai Gow deck and turn over the first forty-two cards?
Quote: paigow1986now that i have answered your guys' questions, i would like to for you to FINALLY answer mine.....ill even put it in caps so you don't forget. WHAT ARE MY CHANCES OF GETTING A JOKER IN PAI GOW WHEN IM PLAYING 6 HANDS AS OPPOSED TO PLAYING 1????? DO MY ODDS OF GETTING A JOKER INCREASE, DECREASE, OR STAY EXACTLY THE SAME??? thankssssss
I talked about this back on October 16th:
Quote: me3. The joker will appear in 6 hands controlled by you, only 1 by the dealer, not 6 separate players, on any given deal. Your chances are slightly less than 6 out of 7 of holding the joker, because 4 cards are burned, and it may be in the discards. The joker's pay effect is already calculated in 2 above, so this may be redundant to the calculation, but joker-bearing hands are significantly more likely to result in a bonus pay, and you have it slightly more than 80% of the time, where a single player has it only 13.5% of the time. With a single player receiving the value of 6 bets instead of one, even though larger, having that much use of the joker has GOT to improve your value on splitting up the bets. (BTW, these are all reasons why I insist on playing 2 hands wherever I go; except for extreme negative variance days, one hand tends to pay for the other and allows me all of these advantages on a lesser scale; I don't care if they make me play 2x minimums; this is how I want to play, and I tend to lose slowly while waiting for the big score.)
