can anyone make a living from gambling baccarat? ??
Many people believe that it's insane to state that you can't lose at a rate that exceeds the house edge in the long run, but it's true.
Quote: gr8playerI don't "guess". Ever.
Now, does that mean that I do, in fact, know what the "next cards will be"? Of course not.
But, Mosca, my friend, if you truly know how to approach and play this closed-end, shoe game called Baccarat, you truly can "get really good" at it.
No, not knowing the exact cards, but knowing how certain shoe characteristics (read: trends) trends begin to develope, and how those trends flow from one to another. Heck, even the absence of trends is, in fact, a trend. It's a "no-bet" trend, but a recognizable trend nonetheless, as recognizable as any domination (read: a trend where one side dominates most of the current results....very bettable).
Alot of you fellas in this esteemed forum seem to choose to believe in the casino math rather than in the player method. That's OK. I get it. Safe, very safe. Doesn't cost you fellas a dime to simply dismiss the game as unbeatable due to the built-in mathematics of it all. Safe, very safe. And, in this forum, might I add: popular, very popular.
But, know this: While the math is undeniable, that doesn't mean it's unbeatable. It doesn't preclude certain players from getting the better of this game.
But, that said, I ask myself: Who, exactly, am I trying to convince of this? Isn't it true that only I need believe in it for it to mean a thing to me? Sure it is.
So, you fellas can keep right on sitting on that most safest and popular side of the fence. Nice and warm and cozy over there, ain't it? Enjoy.....
If that's true, how do casinos exist? They're offering these games for free. If it were possible to be "good" at it, by normal means (that is, means many players use, and a quick look at the baccarat table will tell you following trends is very much among them), they'd go bankrupt. You can see that in blackjack - if they get too tolerant of the relatively easy advantage play of card counting, as in the early days of Atlantic City, the game becomes a loser and is tightened or removed.
"While the math is undeniable, that doesn't mean it's unbeatable." That's sort of the definition. If the undeniable math says it's unbeatable, it can't be beaten.
If you come to have too much confidence in your impossible system, you're setting yourself up for a massive fall.
Quote: KeyserMany people believe that it's insane to state that you can't lose at a rate that exceeds the house edge in the long run, but it's true.
This is exactly why dealers who deal on low minimum games to players who make minimum bets (flat betting with no pressure) that last the longest period of time nearly go insane!
Go to an empty $3 craps table and bet $3 on the pass line and no other bet and throw the dice as fast as possible and challenge yourself to see how much you can lose! It's going to take you more than 24 hours to lose $100 even if you get TERRIBLY unlucky, it will still take hours.
It would be like taking $100 worth of pennies and throwing them one at a time into a pond. There's just not enough variance to really win or lose flat betting without tremendous luck or bad luck.
Quote: gr8playerAssuming, rdw4potus? I don't assume very much, especially Bac-wise.
I just know that most shoes.....MOST shoes.....have a prevailing trend, which translates into dollars....REAL dollars....."ASSUMING" one knows what to look for.
That trend might last a few decisions, it might last longer, but, make no mistake of it, it will put money into my pocket.
It also might dissipate as quickly as it appeared, in which case, I will lose my bet on it.
Then I'll await the next trend. If I find myself in a shoe where the trends are not "holding", I'll "sit on my hands" (read: no-bet).
When a decent trend does hold up for a few winning decisions, again, I make money on it.
So, let's recap:
I bet where I want to.
I bet when I want to.
I bet the amount I want to.
I quit when I want to.
For these player's edges (and a bit more in my arsenal), the casino charges me roughly 1% on each bet.
No "assumining ANYTHING predictable", rdw4potus. I claim no predictive powers.
Still, I say: I'll take that bet. I'll graciously accept your house edge if you can live with mine. I'll take that bet.
Hi, What sort of trends are we talking about?
For example, do you bet on the opposite when you see 7 player wins or banker wins in a row?
Can you elaborate please?
Keyser and teliot seem to have something, but good luck getting them to tell you. (Except for saying "I was joking!" when you lose, but that might end badly.) I suppose the next time you play, you should look at the back of the next card in the shoe to see if a pattern forms. Although I've noticed (I'm not much of a table games player) that baccarat shoes have a kind of "brush" that blackjack shoes don't, which I'm guessing is there with this in mind. Of course, don't cry foul when they kick you out; they're letting you play for free, so the game's got to be paid for somehow.
Quote: 24BingoAlthough I've noticed (I'm not much of a table games player) that baccarat shoes have a kind of "brush" that blackjack shoes don't, which I'm guessing is there with this in mind.
Exactly. That's why I was so surprised when they talked about looking at the back of the cards. You can barely see it!
Quote: liuryanHi, What sort of trends are we talking about?
For example, do you bet on the opposite when you see 7 player wins or banker wins in a row?
Can you elaborate please?
Please don't listen to him. He's certainly entitled to his opinion, but the main problem I have with his posts is that new baccarat players might actually start buying what he says and will end up losing a lot of their money because of it.
Baccarat is a negative expectation game, and you cannot win trying to follow silly "trends".
Quote: Beethoven9thPlease don't listen to him. He's certainly entitled to his opinion, but the main problem I have with his posts is that new baccarat players might actually start buying what he says and will end up losing a lot of their money because of it.
Baccarat is a negative expectation game, and you cannot win trying to follow silly "trends".
How very noble of you, Beethoven9th. You're really concerned that "new baccarat players might actually start buying what he says and will end up losing a lot of money vecause of it". How very noble of you to save them from such a horrific fate...... ROTFLMAO!!!!!
Hey, Beeethoven....
.....this is a gambling site. I'm not posting my Baccarat methodologies on any social media sites like Facebook or Twitter or You-Tube! I'm posting on gambling sites only. I'm attempting to converse with like-minded people on a gambling forum, but I wind up responding to know-nothings like yourself.
You know nothing of me.
But I know of you, Beethoven9th. You're a wannabe. A frustrated Bac player/loser. You can't help but disbelieve that anyone can possibly come out ahead at this game because you've only known failure.
So now you dismiss my trend play as "silly". That, too, is a mistake on your part, IMHO.
I have preferred trends that I play.....when they appear I maximize my profits on their continuance, and when they don't I minimize the damage from their dissipation.
If you, Beethoven9th, are yet another in this esteemed forum that believes that the casino's "house edge" outperforms my "brain-power of choice" (read: my player's edges), well, my friend, you're in the majority 'round here.
Just know that you're wearing that "house edge"/negative expectancy stat like an albatross on your shoulders...the more and more you believe in it, the heavier and heavier it gets...to the point that your self-fulfilling prophecy comes true, and you succumb to it rather than attempt to get the better of it.
Yes, Beethoven9th, Baccarat is, as you put it above, a "negative expectation" game....it appears that you're becoming a bit of the same to me.
Quote: gr8player...but I wind up responding to know-nothings like yourself.
[snip]
But I know of you, Beethoven9th. You're a wannabe. A frustrated Bac player/loser. You can't help but disbelieve that anyone can possibly come out ahead at this game because you've only known failure.
[snip]
Yes, Beethoven9th, Baccarat is, as you put it above, a "negative expectation" game....it appears that you're becoming a bit of the same to me.
Yeah, and I see that you completely ignored rdw4potus' challenge.
Smart move, because you'd lose.
Quote: Beethoven9th
Yeah, and I see that you completely ignored rdw4potus' challenge.
Smart move, because you'd lose.
I know, right? I was really hoping to pad my WOVcon bankroll with that one, too.
Quote: gr8playerI can (and do) make my own probability...
I enjoy wading into threads like these so I can find these gems every now and then.
Quote: gr8player
I respect your opinions, and I trust we are working reciprocally regarding mine.
Unfortunately, I doubt this is the case. Speaking for myself, I don't respect your opinions on these matters, because they may mislead bystanders into believing something that is false and losing money at a game of chance that can't be beat with feelings. Posters like you are a pox on educated gambling forums.
Quote: nezbitif it was possible the game wouldn't exist, casinos would be broke.
Gotta pretty much figure out that since the game has been around since ancient China, if it could be beaten it would have been beaten by now. Sure it would be fun to day dream about sitting there in some high roller's room: free high quality booze, half-naked high quality women (not free, but not particularly expensive either), and the excitement of making an impressive income from all this. The trouble is: it won't happen anywhere but in your dreams.
Quote: FleaStiffGotta pretty much figure out that since the game has been around since ancient China, if it could be beaten it would have been beaten by now. Sure it would be fun to day dream about sitting there in some high roller's room: free high quality booze, half-naked high quality women (not free, but not particularly expensive either), and the excitement of making an impressive income from all this. The trouble is: it won't happen anywhere but in your dreams.
Killjoy
Quote: dwheatleyPosters like you are a pox on educated gambling forums.
And yet another "savior" chimes in with an absolutely inane comment.
"Educated gambling forum"....are you certain of that assessment?
My opinion? I see nothing more than rather rampant naivete.....
Quote: FleaStiffGotta pretty much figure out that since the game has been around since ancient China, if it could be beaten it would have been beaten by now. Sure it would be fun to day dream about sitting there in some high roller's room: free high quality booze, half-naked high quality women (not free, but not particularly expensive either), and the excitement of making an impressive income from all this. The trouble is: it won't happen anywhere but in your dreams.
You see, herein lies the problem. Perception.
There's no "high quality booze", nor "high quality women", nor "impressive incomes"....there exists only the grind. The never-ending battle, both within ourselves and the tables. No glitz, no glamour, and even less money. Merely survival, if you will.
But it's fun and it's interesting, and.....may I be forgiven for saying so.....doable.
Despite all the shouting 'round here of otherwise, it is doable.
Quote: FleaStiffGotta pretty much figure out that since the game has been around since ancient China, if it could be beaten it would have been beaten by now.
...it's a French game. Not everything Chinese is handed down straight from the Sage Emperors.
Quote: gr8playerDespite all the shouting 'round here of otherwise, it is doable.
Apparently you really don't think it's 'doable" since you're still running away from rdw4potus after you challenged him.
Quote: rdw4potus
Quote: On 5/4/13, gr8player said:Still, I say: I'll take that bet. I'll graciously accept your house edge if you can live with mine. I'll take that bet.
You'll accept the real actual house edge in exchange for someone else accepting your completely false assumptions about watching and betting trends? You're on.
gr8player's response: *crickets*
Quote: Beethoven9thPlease don't listen to him. He's certainly entitled to his opinion, but the main problem I have with his posts is that new baccarat players might actually start buying what he says and will end up losing a lot of their money because of it.
Baccarat is a negative expectation game, and you cannot win trying to follow silly "trends".
Thanks for watching out for the common man.
Yeah, pretty much the same since first grade and my "There is no Santa Claus" statement.Quote: treetopbuddyKilljoy
Quote: Beethoven9th
Yeah, and I see that you completely ignored rdw4potus' challenge.
Challenge? What sort of challenge? There was never, ever any personal agreement between myself and rdw4potus. Nor was there ever any challenge.
When I stated that "I'll take that bet", I was speaking in terms of my chances of success over the casino. It was not directed towards any singular person. If, in fact, either you or rdw4potus took that statement any differently than its original intent, that becomes more a problem amongst the two of you than it does with me.
Quote: 24BingoSigh... you can only grind your money away, and it's just kind of sad to see that you think otherwise. The longer you can sustain an illusory upward grind, the faster a fall you're setting yourself up for. That's just a fact.
Hello, 24Bingo. I trust all is well with you.
Why "sad"? What's sad about playing a decent Bac game, and giving the casino all it can take insofar as making myself as "tough an out" as I can for them? There's nothing sad about that at all, my friend.
"Sad" is watching the "ploppies" simply throwing their money into the Atlantic Ocean with their totally irresponsible and nonsensical Bac play. That's sad.
Oh, and FYI 24Bingo, "sad" is seeing all of you self-annointed casino gate-keepers ASSUMING THAT EVERYONE plays this game just as irresponsibly and just as nonsensically.
Know this: As true as your "negative expectancy" exists at the Baccarat table, it's just as true that there exists some serious Bac players that have the knowledge, experience, and wherewithal to overcome it.
Quote: gr8player
"Sad" is watching the "ploppies" simply throwing their money into the Atlantic Ocean with their totally irresponsible and nonsensical Bac play. That's sad.
.
Then you don't understand how casinos work. Without
those 'sad' plopies, your game would close within a week.
You should thank god for them, and not demean them as
irresponsible.
Quote: gr8playerChallenge? What sort of challenge? There was never, ever any personal agreement between myself and rdw4potus. Nor was there ever any challenge.
When I stated that "I'll take that bet", I was speaking in terms of my chances of success over the casino. It was not directed towards any singular person. If, in fact, either you or rdw4potus took that statement any differently than its original intent, that becomes more a problem amongst the two of you than it does with me.
Like I said, smart move. You would surely be exposed had you accepted rdw4potus' challenge.
Quote: gr8playerWhy "sad"? What's sad about playing a decent Bac game, and giving the casino all it can take insofar as making myself as "tough an out" as I can for them? There's nothing sad about that at all, my friend.
"Sad" is watching the "ploppies" simply throwing their money into the Atlantic Ocean with their totally irresponsible and nonsensical Bac play. That's sad.
Unlike a lot of this forum, I don't find that sad, so long as they realize that's what they're doing, and are only trying their luck with their disposable income. When I find it sad* is when they become superstitious, thinking they can affect the outcome one way or the other, or think they've somehow beaten the math, not by subverting the assumptions of the math (counting, edge sorting), but somehow that the math itself doesn't apply. The image you've projected in this thread personifies what I find sad.
(* Also when they bet the rent, whether or not they know what they're doing, but that's another story.)
Quote: gr8playerOh, and FYI 24Bingo, "sad" is seeing all of you self-annointed casino gate-keepers ASSUMING THAT EVERYONE plays this game just as irresponsibly and just as nonsensically.
Here is what I assume:
-You make your decision between player and banker, and how much to bet, based on patterns of prior cards that, assuming a random shuffle, have minimal effect on the outcome.
-You are not even consistent in these patterns.
-The shuffle is sufficiently random that nearly all patterns fall into this category.
The first two, you've said as much in this thread. The third I'll take on faith (note that this is fairly easy to achieve), but it has nothing to do with one's "responsibility."
Quote: gr8playerKnow this: As true as your "negative expectancy" exists at the Baccarat table, it's just as true that there exists some serious Bac players that have the knowledge, experience, and wherewithal to overcome it.
Edge sorters, sure. But they're not the ones you're talking about. You're essentially saying there's a mathematical edge, and a "player's edge" working against it, one I can only describe as "spiritual." Rather than challenging the assumptions under which the edge is calculated as APs do, you think you can compartmentalize mathematics, and layer some nebulous thing on top of it. You seem to think that math is just made up of arithmetic and some arcane symbols further down the line, but what you don't realize is that both of those are just shorthand for inferences starting from the barest principles. A professor once said to me that a statement in mathematics, when you truly understand it, is either trivial, or unproven, and the more thoroughly you look into even the strangest-seeming results, the clearer that becomes. What mathematics ultimately is is nothing more or less than reason itself.
Quote: 24BingoHere is what I assume:
-You make your decision between player and banker, and how much to bet, based on patterns of prior cards that, assuming a random shuffle, have minimal effect on the outcome.
-You are not even consistent in these patterns.
-The shuffle is sufficiently random that nearly all patterns fall into this category.
I'm afraid, 24Bingo, that your assumptions about my Bac play are, for the most part, inaccurate.
Hmmmm.....that statement says alot more than you might think....the "assuming a random shuffle". I am of the belief that this closed-end shoe game, where both the cards and their outcomes are fixed/unchangeable, offers the savvy bettor certain, shall I say, betting opportunities. 'nuff said 'bout that in a public forum....
As to my "consistency in those patterns"....another misconception on your part. My bets might change (sizes and placements, according to each shoe's propensities), but my play is nothing if not consistent, patient, and disciplined. Know that, my friend.
As to the "random shuffle" part, I again, must defer to discretion here, and state simply that you, 24Bingo, just might not have the same insights into this game as do I.
Finally, 24Bingo, it bears mentioning that I truly do understand where you're coming from. And I understand just how correct and exact that you think you are. Math is not subjective, there is only one math. I get it, 24Bingo. But, that said, I wish not to get into semantics here, my friend.
My goal is not to convince anyone of anything; rather, my goal is to get the better of this game. And my doing so (or even not doing so) should have absolutely zero effect on your steadfast belief in the absolute invulnerability of that daunted house edge. I get that, am I'm fine with it. You keep right on believing, my friend....just know, so will I. Be well.......
I only play 5 nights per week, as I can't get a local game Fri & Sat's, (already blocked from playing at 2nd biggest casino chain in UK). Yes mat8, I'm currently doing better than that.Quote: liuryanDoes anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?
My edge? Zilch. I don't think in terms of edge, if I did then to me that must mean I can predict the next outcome, which I can't.
I consider myself a smart "hard to beat" player and share some of the same traits as GR8 in terms of disciple, composure, recording and MM.
Quote: gr8playerI'm afraid, 24Bingo, that your assumptions about my Bac play are, for the most part, inaccurate.
Hmmmm.....that statement says alot more than you might think....the "assuming a random shuffle". I am of the belief that this closed-end shoe game, where both the cards and their outcomes are fixed/unchangeable, offers the savvy bettor certain, shall I say, betting opportunities. 'nuff said 'bout that in a public forum....
As to the "random shuffle" part, I again, must defer to discretion here, and state simply that you, 24Bingo, just might not have the same insights into this game as do I.
You clearly are implying that the shuffles may not result in a random distribution of the cards. If this is true, and somehow you have knowledge of what the next card might be, you certainly could win consistently. The Phil Ivey saga is an example of that.
This is equivalent to 'hole carding' in 3 card poker or Mississippi Stud, where that knowledge and its proper use can clearly turn the odds to the players favor.
I do not believe that you actually can do what you are saying you can, and that is win, at a real casino. I understand the concept of how to do it, but alas, so do the casinos.
Quote: KeyserYes,
You can play baccarat professionally.
There are people playing with an edge.
In answer to your Thread Question "can anyone make a living from gambling baccarat?"
Yes, absolutely, but there are many factors to consider before you decide to take on the profession.
you may want to write this down.
1) you can't make a living with just knowing a good Betting Progression.
2) You need to ask yourself how much you would like to make per hour/day/month/ per session/ per game.
3) You need to ask yourself how much time do you want to invest. full shoe/partial show/ 5 shoes per day/ etc.
4) you need to know (Not ask your self) but know how much you want to lose in risk of the size of your bankroll.
(Know that you will lose and you will win and question how much)
5) Know when to quit and walk away in a very professional manner.
6) 100% Positive mind. (don't enter a Baccarat room expecting to lose right off the bat.)
7) Know that Casinos are open 24hrs per day and in most cases will never run out of money, so don't try to "Break the Bank" all in one day.
I can go on and on, but if you want to make a living playing the game, Go For it! and have fun knowing you not only will lose 20% of your bankroll 75% of the time, You will always win 25% of the time and your winnings will be Huge.
Quote: liuryanDoes anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?
Unless they have short term goals, the answer will always be NO.
Quote: varmentiUnless they have short term goals, the answer will always be NO.
Welcome to the forum, varmenti !!!
My answer to that would be "depending on the size of your unit"
I enjoy reading yours and gr8player's post. There are a lot of similarities and truth to those posts. My bacc play is somewhere between your and gr8player's style of play. (I bet on streaks & chops, both B & P at the same time, and I use both positive & mild negative progression. You can beat 50/50 and make a profit in short term ---- I define short term as my life time in an infinite time.)
Nowadays I play in the AC, Philly and Maryland area about 4 to 5 days a week. (Not Delaware Park anymore. They took out Baccarat game since May, 2013 because they screw up on their promotion and people took advantage of it.-- "They gave match play of $400 to each person every week since January, 2013")
There are a lot of people in this forum do not believes professional gamblers exist, so I just ignores those post because there is no sense for me to get to their level. (Although I wish the administrator of this forum would enforce and suspend some of the member for non bacc related subject and direct to personal attack on other member)
Please excuse my grammar and spelling etc. for English is not my native language.
Yes, I am Asian playing Baccarat exclusively since 1980.
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”
Albert Einstein
Quote: jhousetc
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”
Albert Einstein
Einstein didn't play dice with the universe either.
Quote: jhousetcWelcome to the forum, varmenti !!!
My answer to that would be "depending on the size of your unit"
I enjoy reading yours and gr8player's post. There are a lot of similarities and truth to those posts. My bacc play is somewhere between your and gr8player's style of play. (I bet on streaks & chops, both B & P at the same time, and I use both positive & mild negative progression. You can beat 50/50 and make a profit in short term ---- I define short term as my life time in an infinite time.)
Nowadays I play in the AC, Philly and Maryland area about 4 to 5 days a week. (Not Delaware Park anymore. They took out Baccarat game since May, 2013 because they screw up on their promotion and people took advantage of it.-- "They gave match play of $400 to each person every week since January, 2013")
There are a lot of people in this forum do not believes professional gamblers exist, so I just ignores those post because there is no sense for me to get to their level. (Although I wish the administrator of this forum would enforce and suspend some of the member for non bacc related subject and direct to personal attack on other member)
Please excuse my grammar and spelling etc. for English is not my native language.
Yes, I am Asian playing Baccarat exclusively since 1980.
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”
Albert Einstein
Professional Gamblers do exist, Many have created there own methods and techniques from playing so many years. why share? to them they are "letting the cat out of the bag" I started here a a new member and was in for a shocking welcome but negative responses by quite a few members, If everyone approached things with an open mind and Assuming the "Methods of madness" do work.
Ask lots of questions?
my advise to you would be just try to avoid any negative betting "at all costs"
Pull back some profit after a win, but know when to let it all ride.
Know your basic strategies and system requirements like the back of your hand
Discipline yourself 100% of the time when on the Casino floor.
I can tell by this post you know what your doing jhousetc.
50/50 is what makes the game very profitable.
also the multiple ways you want to follow the Score Board Plays a big part in the discipline role.
I play Vertical Runs only, this is why I play both B & P.
Horizontal patterns are a different story.
Quote: Beethoven9thAhigh, what in the world are you talking about? Baccarat is a negative expectation game. Everybody loses in the long run.
Everybody loses in the long run at any Game of Chance, especially the ones offered at the Casino's. The key is to make money in the short run and repeat the process every day.
Quote: varmentiThe key is to make money in the short run and repeat the process every day.
*facepalm*
Quote: varmentiEverybody loses in the long run at any Game of Chance, especially the ones offered at the Casino's. The key is to make money in the short run and repeat the process every day.
Sure, that way The Long Run does not apply.
Brilliant!
Quote: MrVSure, that way The Long Run does not apply.
Brilliant!
LoL! I knew there was a way to avoid long term results play short sessions. I can't believe I missed this. :)
Quote: MrVSure, that way The Long Run does not apply.
Brilliant!
True.
"give a man a fish, he will be fed for a day, Teach a man to fish and he will feed for a lifetime"
Quote: varmenti"you can lead a horse to water, but you can not make him drink"
"give a man a fish, he will be fed for a day, Teach a man to fish and he will feed for a lifetime"
My favorite quote: "There's a sucker born every minute."
Runner-up: "A fool and his money are soon parted."
Hmmmmm......If you play everyday then how do you avoid the long run? Dose god reset the clock each day? If so what time?Quote: varmentiEverybody loses in the long run at any Game of Chance, especially the ones offered at the Casino's. The key is to make money in the short run and repeat the process every day.
Yes. I'm one of them. You can buy me drinks and I'll tell you about it. You can also buy one of my seminar presentations on Professional Keno or "How I consistently win against an 80 percent house edge" too.Quote: varmentiProfessional Gamblers do exist.
Quote: willco777Anybody checked out Baccaratforcash by Michael Watson. Based in Vegas and does answer his phone. By checking I mean more than reading the website but actually knows something about the guy.
This guy can't be nearly as good as varmenti. Varmenti claims to be able to make $500 - $1,000 per day, which translates to approx $182,000 to $365,000 per year. That beats Watson's claim of being able to make $100,000 - $250,000 per year. Plus, Watson charges $1,500 to learn his method, while varmenti gives his away for free. Clearly, varmenti is the superior baccarat expert.
