kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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July 8th, 2019 at 3:41:55 AM permalink
Not really a question. Rather sharing an experience.

Yesterday I joined a table with a clearly defined goal. Spend max 200, goal win 100 (yes I know, Im a low roller).
After less than 20 minutes I had +110. Talk about lucky hands.
Dilemma! Should I quit so early, even though I had fun and the night was just beginning ?
Should I somehow believe in a lucky strain and try to exploit it?
Should I update my goal?
Should I collect my winnings and go try my luck at some other game?


I did quit.
Would you?
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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Thanks for this post from:
ApellesPromptov
July 8th, 2019 at 4:26:57 AM permalink
What is your reason for playing?

If you are playing a negative expectation game, and your goals are financial, then the less you play, the better. But really, if your goals are financial, then why play at all?

If you are playing for other reasons -- recreational, showing off, picking up sexual partners -- and you haven't accomplished those reasons, then why quit?

Win goals and stop losses don't change the math. Since most play is on negative expectation games, win goals and stop losses could reduce table time, which reduces player losses.

The problem with win goals and stop losses, besides being mathematically meaningless, is that they help players create equally meaningless narratives where the players are focused in on believing they are in some "battle" with the casino. Players can become as addicted to the continual tallying as they are to the risking of resources. If you're playing a negative expectation game, there is no real long term "battle." It's all an illusion. Keeping tabs on hand-to-hand financial status is a silly distraction that imports some kind of personal meaning and narrative to something that is just a simple activity with a mathematically predictable long term result.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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July 8th, 2019 at 7:51:32 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

Not really a question.
Dilemma! Should I quit so early, even though I had fun and the night was just beginning ?
Should I somehow believe in a lucky strain and try to exploit it?
Should I update my goal?
Should I collect my winnings and go try my luck at some other game?
Would you?


Five question marks sounds like a Q to me.

Quitting while ahead has worked for me. But also its corollary, stopping before down too much.

My handle is in the billions so it's not like I'm speaking from a small time experience and we're talking about many years of play.

I don't have to keep playing. I didn't play for around a decade because I was too busy to bother with it. So implying that there is no way to stop or pick and choose which sessions to press into and which to walk away from is nonsense.

If everyone quit while ahead casinos would go dark within a year. Ask any pit boss - the main reason the house does so well is that people won't stop while ahead. The house advantage is very small and has little to do with why high rollers dump millions in one short session, the house advantage no more explains why a player betting only $20K per hand is suddenly up a million than why he just as quickly loses it.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jul 8, 2019
TigerWu
TigerWu 
Joined: May 23, 2016
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July 8th, 2019 at 8:03:37 AM permalink
I probably wouldn't have quit. If I had a maximum amount that I'm willing to lose (i.e., your 200 euro), I would just play up to losing that amount AS LONG AS I was still having fun.
MDawg
MDawg
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July 8th, 2019 at 8:14:45 AM permalink
Tiger, I hear that, but for me - walking away while ahead is fun. Discipline isn't always fun to practice, but the end results are satisfying.

Walking away down after having been up, for me, is no fun.

Maybe what he could have done is stopped after giving back half of what he was ahead. That way he gave it a chance to see if the run would continue, but still guaranteed walking away ahead.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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July 8th, 2019 at 8:45:23 AM permalink
So you attribute casinos winning to the timing of the players walking away from the tables/slots/video poker?

Wow.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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ForagerAxelWolf
July 8th, 2019 at 9:08:41 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

So you attribute casinos winning to the timing of the players walking away from the tables/slots/video poker?

Wow.



But he has churned billions through the casino. He obviously knows more than the rest of us. Respect. You are used to playing very small. Play small, think small. Play Big. Dream big. The so called maths only apply to small numbers. It's the second billion that screws up most people.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolf
July 8th, 2019 at 9:16:27 AM permalink
And stay hydrated.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
ForagerOnceDear
July 8th, 2019 at 9:17:39 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg



If everyone quit while ahead casinos would go dark within a year. Ask any pit boss - the main reason the house does so well is that people won't stop while ahead. The house advantage is very small and has little to do with why high rollers dump millions in one short session, the house advantage no more explains why a player betting only $20K per hand is suddenly up a million than why he just as quickly loses it.



LOL

Complete misinformation.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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July 8th, 2019 at 9:43:22 AM permalink
I don't think I've ever had a session where the theoretical loss equaled my actual win/loss.

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