Stop while ahead

Not really a question. Rather sharing an experience.

Yesterday I joined a table with a clearly defined goal. Spend max €200, goal win €100 (yes I know, I’m a low roller).
After less than 20 minutes I had +110. Talk about lucky hands.
Dilemma! Should I quit so early, even though I had fun and the night was just beginning ?
Should I somehow believe in a lucky strain and try to exploit it?
Should I update my goal?
Should I collect my winnings and go try my luck at some other game?


I did quit.
Would you?

What is your reason for playing?

If you are playing a negative expectation game, and your goals are financial, then the less you play, the better. But really, if your goals are financial, then why play at all?

If you are playing for other reasons -- recreational, showing off, picking up sexual partners -- and you haven't accomplished those reasons, then why quit?

Win goals and stop losses don't change the math. Since most play is on negative expectation games, win goals and stop losses could reduce table time, which reduces player losses.

The problem with win goals and stop losses, besides being mathematically meaningless, is that they help players create equally meaningless narratives where the players are focused in on believing they are in some "battle" with the casino. Players can become as addicted to the continual tallying as they are to the risking of resources. If you're playing a negative expectation game, there is no real long term "battle." It's all an illusion. Keeping tabs on hand-to-hand financial status is a silly distraction that imports some kind of personal meaning and narrative to something that is just a simple activity with a mathematically predictable long term result.

Quote: kubikulann

Not really a question.
Dilemma! Should I quit so early, even though I had fun and the night was just beginning ?
Should I somehow believe in a lucky strain and try to exploit it?
Should I update my goal?
Should I collect my winnings and go try my luck at some other game?
Would you?

Five question marks sounds like a Q to me.

Quitting while ahead has worked for me. But also its corollary, stopping before down too much.

My handle is in the billions so it's not like I'm speaking from a small time experience and we're talking about many years of play.

I don't have to keep playing. I didn't play for around a decade because I was too busy to bother with it. So implying that there is no way to stop or pick and choose which sessions to press into and which to walk away from is nonsense.

If everyone quit while ahead casinos would go dark within a year. Ask any pit boss - the main reason the house does so well is that people won't stop while ahead. The house advantage is very small and has little to do with why high rollers dump millions in one short session, the house advantage no more explains why a player betting only $20K per hand is suddenly up a million than why he just as quickly loses it.

I probably wouldn't have quit. If I had a maximum amount that I'm willing to lose (i.e., your 200 euro), I would just play up to losing that amount AS LONG AS I was still having fun.

Tiger, I hear that, but for me - walking away while ahead is fun. Discipline isn't always fun to practice, but the end results are satisfying.

Walking away down after having been up, for me, is no fun.

Maybe what he could have done is stopped after giving back half of what he was ahead. That way he gave it a chance to see if the run would continue, but still guaranteed walking away ahead.

So you attribute casinos winning to the timing of the players walking away from the tables/slots/video poker?

Wow.

Quote: redietz

So you attribute casinos winning to the timing of the players walking away from the tables/slots/video poker?

Wow.

But he has churned billions through the casino. He obviously knows more than the rest of us. Respect. You are used to playing very small. Play small, think small. Play Big. Dream big. The so called maths only apply to small numbers. It's the second billion that screws up most people.

And stay hydrated.

Quote: MDawg

If everyone quit while ahead casinos would go dark within a year. Ask any pit boss - the main reason the house does so well is that people won't stop while ahead. The house advantage is very small and has little to do with why high rollers dump millions in one short session, the house advantage no more explains why a player betting only $20K per hand is suddenly up a million than why he just as quickly loses it.

LOL

Complete misinformation.

I don't think I've ever had a session where the theoretical loss equaled my actual win/loss.

Quote: MDawg

I don't think I've ever had a session where the theoretical loss equaled my actual win/loss.

Mickey Mantle had a lifetime batting average of .298. The number of seasons he hit .298? Zero. Math is strange.

Quote: MDawg

Tiger, I hear that, but for me - walking away while ahead is fun. Discipline isn't always fun to practice, but the end results are satisfying.

Walking away down after having been up, for me, is no fun.

Maybe what he could have done is stopped after giving back half of what he was ahead. That way he gave it a chance to see if the run would continue, but still guaranteed walking away ahead.

Yet Nathan was harassed for posting drivel and bad info. Not a word gets said here?....lol...This is Nathan squared.

Math isn't strange. Do the math on if I have never had even one session where the theoretical loss equaled the actual win/loss and multiply it out. A hundred thousand sessions where the house advantage did not reflect the end result doesn't "even out."

The house advantage is irrelevant (as in not proportionate) to my over all winning, but among those I know who have lost, they have lost far more than they should have versus their theoretical loss.

Quote: MaxPen

Yet Nathan was harassed for posting drivel and bad info. Not a word gets said here?....lol...This is Nathan squared.

Here's a word. Warning.

I really object to you making Nathan into a comparison point, as an insult to another poster. Let's nip that in the bud right now. (And yeah, I was directed to this post by a complaint.)

I also think people posting THEIR OPINION on what's fun for them, even if it's not mathematically sound, or they're kidding themselves, doesn't qualify as "drivel". He's not saying he's an expert. He's not making up BS statistics to back up his advice. THOSE were the problems Nathan caused in that area.

In context, you're addressing the post, not the poster, so I think a warning is sufficient, but your toes are on the line with this. Thanks.

Quote: MDawg

Tiger, I hear that, but for me - walking away while ahead is fun. Discipline isn't always fun to practice, but the end results are satisfying.

Walking away down after having been up, for me, is no fun.

Maybe what he could have done is stopped after giving back half of what he was ahead. That way he gave it a chance to see if the run would continue, but still guaranteed walking away ahead.

+1

Riding the positive variance train to the last station... then getting off, is much more fun than staying on until the train inevitably goes off the rails.

As for money management, rathole half your initial bankroll and your win goal, then use the left overs to start a new "session". If you hit your win goal again, rathole half and start again. If you lose three hands in row, or the shooter fails to make a point three times in a row... quit for the night. You had a good run and are going home with some winnings.

That's pretty much EXACTLY what you're supposed to do when you're winning. Ride the streaks, press into them...then use some (not all) of the house's money to try to build a new stack, and repeat with leftovers if you build more than one new stack, or leave if it starts going too far in the other direction.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Here's a word. Warning.

I really object to you making Nathan into a comparison point, as an insult to another poster. Let's nip that in the bud right now. (And yeah, I was directed to this post by a complaint.)

I also think people posting THEIR OPINION on what's fun for them, even if it's not mathematically sound, or they're kidding themselves, doesn't qualify as "drivel". He's not saying he's an expert. He's not making up BS statistics to back up his advice. THOSE were the problems Nathan caused in that area.

In context, you're addressing the post, not the poster, so I think a warning is sufficient, but your toes are on the line with this. Thanks.

If Nathan had ever posted the phrase “casinos would go bankrupt if people always quit when they’re ahead”.. she would’ve been warned , ridiculed , and possibly suspended , etc. for the posting of a nonsensical opinion.

Maybe the billions person was being facetious. Easily could be tongue in cheek.

As far as "fun opinions" go, I guess I could say that my subjective fun opinion, having churned tens of billions, is that basing your stop loss on the chest size of the next cocktail waitress to walk within five feet of you is not only fun, it doubles as a win goal.

Just my opinion -- LOL.

Quote: michael99000

If Nathan had ever posted the phrase “casinos would go bankrupt if people always quit when they’re ahead”.. she would’ve been warned , ridiculed , and possibly suspended , etc. for the posting of a nonsensical opinion.

Yes but Nathan has yet to put billions in action while beating casinos left and right.

I sure do miss b79, he also had some good yarns.

I think that was a smart move to leave.
I personally never had the discipline to let go. Always stay and as a rule always lose. And it's usually not even fun.
I am yet to cognize the ancient art of ' that's enough '

Quote: MDawg

That's pretty much EXACTLY what you're supposed to do when you're winning. Ride the streaks, press into them...then use some (not all) of the house's money to try to build a new stack, and repeat with leftovers if you build more than one new stack, or leave if it starts going too far in the other direction.

Have you ever considered writing a book on casino gambling advice ?

Quote: michael99000

Have you ever considered writing a book on casino gambling advice ?

Would make a great addition to the fiction section of libraries around the country. Should try to make it a book of many pages. The homeless need more TP.

Quote: michael99000

Have you ever considered writing a book on casino gambling advice ?

My first cross-country coach could be co-author. He explained very seriously that, "You have to be ahead at the finish line to win."

Words to live by.

Quote: billryan

But he has churned billions through the casino. He obviously knows more than the rest of us. Respect. You are used to playing very small. Play small, think small. Play Big. Dream big. The so called maths only apply to small numbers. It's the second billion that screws up most people.

Billions, lol. The stuff dreams are made of.

Talk about hundreds of .01 5 play hands and then some members can relate.

But you can earn a free burger after a few weeks of “churned” dollars. Far more dollars to be made hustling in the bathrooms from so called “straight “ overweight guys.

If I were to say, I just lifted over twenty five thousand pounds during my workout at the gym today, if you said "that's impossible!" this would tell me that you don't exercise much.

When I tell you that I've passed well over a billion dollars through the circle, the few of you who retort "that's impossible" are telling me that you don't gamble much.

Neither is a particularly excessive feat.

Quote: MDawg

If I were to say, I just lifted over twenty five thousand pounds during my workout at the gym today, if you said "that's impossible!" this would tell me that you don't exercise much.

When I tell you that I've passed well over a billion dollars through the circle, the few of you who retort "that's impossible" are telling me that you don't gamble much.

Neither is a particularly excessive feat.

If you played blackjack for 10 hours a day, every single day of the year for 20 years straight , you’d have to bet about $14,000/hour to reach just One Billion in total bets

Quote: michael99000

If you played blackjack for 10 hours a day, every single day of the year for 20 years straight , you’d have to bet about $14,000/hour to reach just One Billion in total bets

MDawg stories require one to devoid themself of known facts, in my opinion. Just roll with it.

Quote: michael99000

Quote: MDawg

If I were to say, I just lifted over twenty five thousand pounds during my workout at the gym today, if you said "that's impossible!" this would tell me that you don't exercise much.

When I tell you that I've passed well over a billion dollars through the circle, the few of you who retort "that's impossible" are telling me that you don't gamble much.

Neither is a particularly excessive feat.

If you played blackjack for 10 hours a day, every single day of the year for 20 years straight , you’d have to bet about $14,000/hour to reach just One Billion in total bets

But if he bet $56,0000 per hour, it could get done in five hours per day for 10 straight years

To the question on when to stop: Always keep playing on any game that is hot. But make sure to stop whenever it is due for a loss.

Once someone has done that enough, the next step is to go around telling everyone about huge wins. There are a few people here who have mastered this advanced strategy.

I'm not here to belittle you guys, in that you're doing an excellent job of it yourselves. Now it's painfully clear that you guys sit at home and haven't gambled much in your lives. I'll respond this once, but for the most part, I'm going to try to ignore the lot of you from here on in that you're all theoreticians, and poor ones at that.

*** Wizard, when you update the forum you could please add an IGNORE function? I just need to ignore 3 - 4 here, the rest are cool.

Early on in my play, I didn't even know what a handle meant. After I heard the term, I asked my host after one night of playing BJ, it was a marathon session all nighter, what my handle was. I thought it had been a hundred K or something like that. He went and checked, came back and told me that it had been over a million (he gave me the exact figure but I've published it elsewhere it's not worth getting into the details of that particular session for you guys). That was just one night and I wasn't even playing that hard then, my average bet got much higher as the years went on.

I used to play an average of 150 days a year. Even at that million per day figure, which I played at least twice as hard as that eventually, I would have passed the billion handle at 6 to 7 years, and I played much more than 6 or 7 solid years at that level before my long hiatus.

Just for example during one recent trip (post hiatus), and I play only average about 300 per hand these days, I went through 10 midi-Baccarat shoes sitting at the table alone in one session without taking a break (other than restroom). That's midi Bacc. touching bending poking the cards. The pit boss commented that I went through all those shoes "pretty fast" but, that's just the way I play especially if alone. I did only a few free hands per shoe. So that's say 75 hands per shoe taking into account the few per I didn't play, ten shoes, times 300 is a handle of $225K for that session. I kept playing because I wasn't particularly losing but I wasn't particularly winning until towards the end, and then I left. End of one session.

Back then, pre-hiatus, my average was 3000 per hand, meaning a handle of about $225K per Baccarat SHOE, and many many times I'd play table limit which was 15K then, so there were many sessions when my average bet was closer to six thousand, meaning closer to $450K handle per SHOE. But even at 3000 per hand, and I'd sit there and play Bacc all day long sometimes, MANY shoes in one day, my handle for a session would easily be two million. On an aggressive day playing even just six Bacc. shoes at average 6000, that's a handle of $2.7M And this is just Baccarat not counting all the table limit craps or BJ I played too, although Baccarat was the game that I played the most especially after I was banned from BJ, to the highest limits.

Even if I were still playing 3000 average per hand THESE days (post hiatus), you are right about one thing - I might not reach that billion handle so easily this time around. Back then I would just play and play. I had sessions where I would play Baccarat for 26 hours straight. I'd frequently play BJ all day or all night. It took all those years of play, and the long (about a decade) break I took, to realize that when I used to win, I'd win quickly, and when I used to lose, I'd lose quickly too - in other words that all those marathon sessions I played back then weren't the best idea. So now I'm much more disciplined and I follow the Stop While Ahead philosophy much more readily. Which in turn means that my handle isn't what it used to be, but I am winning more consistently.

Anyway, you guys have a good time debating theory. On the off chance that any of you naysayers actually play, maybe you'll see me at the tables someday.

/

Quote: MaxPen

MDawg stories require one to devoid themself of known facts, in my opinion. Just roll with it.

Hey Max, I can use a couple hundred extra dollars. Any chance you think this guy is for real like the last one?

Quote: MDawg

*** Wizard, when you update the forum you could please add an IGNORE function? I just need to ignore 3 - 4 here, the rest are cool.

I might not believe your billions of dollars in action claim, however, by the end of this thread, if you told me you had to ignore billions of members, I might very well believe that.

Quote: AxelWolf

/Hey Max, I can use a couple hundred extra dollars. Any chance you think this guy is for real like the last one?

This one is not even close. You could offer +10,000 and I wouldn't want the action.

Quote: MaxPen

This one is not even close. You could offer +10,000 and I wouldn't want the action.

it seems I have taught you well grasshopper. Wait, is that racist? I can't tell anymore.

Quote: redietz

My first cross-country coach could be co-author. He explained very seriously that, "You have to be ahead at the finish line to win."

Words to live by.

He never watched the Kentucky Derby.

Quote: SOOPOO

He never watched the Kentucky Derby.

That was good.

With your permission, SooPoo, I'll use that and reference you. I really should have remembered that. I did a blog piece on the Kentucky Derby, and if I ever get to 20 posts without being banned by Babs, I'll post a link.

Quote: AxelWolf

/Hey Max, I can use a couple hundred extra dollars. Any chance you think this guy is for real like the last one?

MDawg could easily be real. Dracula's churn was phenomenal.

Quote: MDawg

I don't think I've ever had a session where the theoretical loss equaled my actual win/loss.

Damn true! Of all the dice throws in a lifetime, I never rolled a 3.5 either.

Quote: TomG

To the question on when to stop: Always keep playing on any game that is hot. But make sure to stop whenever it is due for a loss.

Sorry, anybody using concepts like « hot » or « due for a loss » has nothing useful to contribute to the subject.
Maybe a forum category for Magic could be the receptacle of such posts?

Redietz ... of course use my retort as you want.
Others.... either you believe MDawg was/now still is a big gambler playing thousands a hand or you don’t. I don’t know but I’ll guess there are at least thousands and more likely tens of thousands of ‘whales’ that have put through a billion in play over any given decade. It would not be stunning if one of them found this forum. I tend not to believe him because his understanding of basic EV concepts seems lacking. But it is possible many whales don’t have that knowledge. So my jury is still out.

Getting this thread back on topic. Generally speaking, if I got up early at a casino and wanted to play more, I would maybe rathole the chips I came in with and play with your winnings. If you lose that, you break even. I had this happen to me at a BJ table recently where I bought in for $200 and built it up to around $800. I pocketed 5 black chips and played with the other $300. If, I lost it, I was still up $300.

That all said, you have to have the discipline to know when to walk away. IMO, there is no worse feeling walking out of a casino with no money when you were up in a particular session

I used to set win goals. It was amazing how often I'd get to about 95-98% of my intended stop point and then lose. Now I secretly cut my goal by ten percent so when the machines think I'm still below my goal, I have actually reached my secret goal and can quit.
Have a plan, then develop a secret plan. Do this, and properly hydrate and life is good.

I've wondered about that. Say you're down and you get to within $200. of even, and all you want to do is get even and leave. Next thing you know you're down eight grand.

Or, your goal is to get up ten K, and you're at 9800, next thing you know you just dumped four grand, and now you "need" 4200 not 200 to get to your goal.

I think it has to do with that your play sometimes isn't right when you get close to goals. Either you're being too careful as you get close and selling yourself short, or too reckless as you slip away from the goal that you were JUST about to hit and try to press bets to catch up quickly when the card flow may not necessarily justify such big catch up bets. At least, that's all I can think of. That you're thinking too much about "I gotta get this" since you're so close, versus playing / betting based solely on the cards.

During my more recent play as I've gotten close to goals I've tried to be aware of this, that my play might tend to be off if I'm being blinded by the goal, and it has worked out better. Also, with my more recent play I haven't really worried much about setting winning goals. Just win, whatever amount. But yeah - when you're down, there is no way to get around that the absolute goal of getting back to even is there. Can't ignore that goal.

Quote: MDawg

I've wondered about that. Say you're down and you get to within $200. of even, and all you want to do is get even and leave. Next thing you know you're down eight grand.

I always do it the opposite way. In the example above, the player can either win back $200, or lose $8,000. How I do it, which is so much better, is to either lose $200 and get back to even, or win $8,000.

Quote: billryan

I used to set win goals. It was amazing how often I'd get to about 95-98% of my intended stop point and then lose. Now I secretly cut my goal by ten percent so when the machines think I'm still below my goal, I have actually reached my secret goal and can quit.

You're funny. :-)

I'm grasping the issue here. We're not taking into account the machines' goals. The machines, unbeknownst to us, probably have their own stop losses and win goals.

I don't know if you've noticed, but machines have oodles of discipline.

Quote: redietz

I'm grasping the issue here. We're not taking into account the machines' goals. The machines, unbeknownst to us, probably have their own stop losses and win goals.

I don't know if you've noticed, but machines have oodles of discipline.

Only until you discover their sweet spot and take it to the zone.

Quote: billryan

Only until you discover their sweet spot and take it to the zone.

Shhhhh. Loose lips sink ships. Don't let the machines know that we know that they know what we know. Some of those machines might be on the internet, poring over every word we post.
$:o)
Also, I find it's best if I don't let my subconscious and conscious minds know what the other has planned.

The solution is this browser extension app I found that lets you program certain words into it and inserts a LARGE Bozo the Clown emoji over these words.

Then I just ignore the content to the right of each emoji.

Best solution I found so far.

Life is much smoother.

Quote: SOOPOO

Redietz ... of course use my retort as you want.
Others.... either you believe MDawg was/now still is a big gambler playing thousands a hand or you don’t. I don’t know but I’ll guess there are at least thousands and more likely tens of thousands of ‘whales’ that have put through a billion in play over any given decade. It would not be stunning if one of them found this forum. I tend not to believe him because his understanding of basic EV concepts seems lacking. But it is possible many whales don’t have that knowledge. So my jury is still out.

If the bestest anesthesiologist in the world manages to grace us with his presence, I see no reason why the bestest gambler in the world can't be gracing us with his presence as well.

Oh sh*t, I almost forgot, even the most feared well known secretive bus ridding East Coast AP has LOTS of time for us.