airlines bumping passengers

Airlines deliberately overbook their own flights because they know that a certain percentage of travelers will miss the flight, and airlines want to fill every seat. But sometimes the flights stay overbooked, and it's necessary for the airline to bump passengers. In the first quarter of 2011, Delta bumped 656 passengers involuntarily, United bumped 1,193 passengers involuntarily, Southwest bumped 2,167 passengers involuntarily, and American bumped 2,191 passengers involuntarily. (The key word is "involuntarily" because Delta also bumped an additional 23,802 passengers, but those were all volunteers who happily waited for the next flight in exchange for some free travel vouchers.)

I think it's a disgrace. An airline ticket is a promise, (especially since most tickets are "nonrefundable") and yet it's perfectly legal for an airline to break their promise. Sports teams, Broadway theaters, and rock concert promoters don't do this. If I owned a business that regularly sold a product not in inventory without warning my customers, wouldn't that be considered fraud?

The airlines argue that keeping the seats filled benefits passengers by keeping airfares low. The flaw in their argument is that Jetblue only bumped 12 passengers involuntarily. Granted, Jetblue is a smaller airline (730 flights per day compared to American's 3,600 flights per day), but the point is that Jetblue does a much better job of offering competitive fares while still honoring their promise to their customers that buying a ticket will get you a seat.

Really?

I was under the impression that bumping was extremely rare, and might even be a thing of the past.

With not only non-refundable fares, but seat selection at the time of booking, I don't see how overbooking can be possible. Oh, sure, there may be no-shows, and people on stand-by, ready to take those seats, but overbooking?

Besides, given the compensation provided to the people that get bumped, I don't see the economic sense of the practice.

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Regarding the poll, I voted "Who cares" because I think the practice should stop, but I don't think it should be legislated.

Quote: reno

I think it's a disgrace. An airline ticket is a promise, (especially since most tickets are "nonrefundable") and yet it's perfectly legal for an airline to break their promise. Sports teams, Broadway theaters, and rock concert promoters don't do this. If I owned a business that regularly sold a product not in inventory without warning my customers, wouldn't that be considered fraud?

Airlines are regulated by both the Warsaw Pact and special domestic regulations other businesses do not deal with. And running an airline is not like any other business. It is one of the worst businesses going, so a high load-factor is a must. Making up for this behavior is the fact that airlines operate in a "we are all in this together" mentality in times of crisis and will take each other's bumped passengers, or even honor tickets for stranded passengers in the rare cases another carrier goes belly-up unexpectedly. I was a beneficiary of this once when a passenger had a heart attack, the plane landed at an airport without that airline's operatoins, and a replacement was borrowed from a competitor so we could take off. Not saying it is right to bump, but that it is not a movie theatre.

Some passengers happily play the "bump me" game. If I had a 100 of a product and could regularly sell 103 of them, I would surely do it. The answer might be a "no bump" ticket where you pay $10-15 extra to insure you cannot be bumped, make those up to 50% of the tickets.

BTW: I fly jetBlue whenever possible.

I wonder who decides how many extra tickets to sell for a given flight? Does it vary by flight length? By cost of the flight? By average weather conditions at the airport? By size of the plane? By interest rates? By number of interceptions Tom Brady throws in the Bills game? (Had to get that one in)

Quote: SOOPOO

I wonder who decides how many extra tickets to sell for a given flight? Does it vary by flight length? By cost of the flight? By average weather conditions at the airport? By size of the plane? By interest rates? By number of interceptions Tom Brady throws in the Bills game? (Had to get that one in)

I'd be sure someone somewhere writes a very sophisticates algorithm for it. But the idea was even mentioned in "Wall Street" and Bud Fox's plan to turn BlueStar around by increasing load factoring.

I think bumping is extremely common. America West has bumped me on two separate occasions. When I went to Hawaii earlier this year my brother in law got bumped by Hawaiian Airlines. In the case of America West they put me on a later flight and don't recall getting anything for my trouble. With Hawaiian Airlines they gave my brother in law a non-transferable $400 voucher for future travel, that expired in one year. I doubt he will use it.

In my opinion there should be regulation to discourage what I think has become all too common. There was no option to vote to keep it legal but increase the penalty, but that is my opinion of what should happen. In addition to re-booking the passenger on another flight I think they should give him/her $1,000 in additional compensation. Overbooking should not be totally illegal, as there will always be some passengers who don't show up. I'm sure the airlines could figure out the profit maximizing number of seats to sell for any given fine.

I don't have a problem with them overbooking and then bumping passengers who volunteer for a later flight to get the extra travel voucher. My issue is with the involuntarily bumped passengers. The airlines should have to pay SIGNIFICANTLY more to those people. For example, if you volunteer to get bumped, you get the later flight + a $400 voucher. If you get involutarily bumped, you get the later flight at first class + a $1000 voucher.

I think it's much more common that in the past, mainly because the airlines have reduced the number of planes in their fleets as well. Shoot, on my last trip to Vegas, a couple was talking in line at the Coffee shop, and the husband was debating whether to get bumped for the 3rd time in their trip. (They had only made it to IAD, from Boston I believe). The wife had enough, with their flights taking already 28 hrs to date, and no more amount of free money/tickets could dissuade her.....

-B

What a lot of people don't know is that after a while if nobody volunteers to be bumped, they will sweeten the offer. The 400 voucher offer is disgustingly low, yet last time I flew, people were falling over themselves to get to the counter when it was announced.

Jean Scott ("Frugal Video Poker") is also an expert on being bumped and has a couple chapters of her book devoted to it.

In my experience the incentive to be voluntarily bumped is so small that few people take it, if any. Perhaps one of the old-timers can address this, but it is my understanding that before the airlines were deregulated under Reagan overbooking was very rare.

In my opinion, there is some optimal balance between the private sector and government oversight. In the case of the airline industry there is too little regulation, and airlines should be punished for overbooking, at least in my opinion. Like I said before, I think $1,000 per incident sounds about right.

Quote: Wizard

In my experience the incentive to be voluntarily bumped is so small that few people take it, if any.

It seems that airlines are taking advantage four ways: (1) extreme penalties for last minute cancellation (2) inability to transfer a seat to another person, (3) overbooking, and (4) feeble inducements to induce people to voluntarily give up a seat.

One could argue that transferring seats is a security hazard, but I don't buy it. If you do it with enough time, the new passenger could register online and show up with the proper identification. He would be no more risky than the original passenger. It's just an excuse.

The terms of the poll only address one of the four contstraints. Airlines can relax any or all of them in some predetermined manner, and involuntary bumping should vanish. If not, then the airlines should be treated as any other business that knowingly breaks a contract.

Happened to me twice leaving Vegas. They came around
and asked for a volunteer to wait for the next flight and they
would get a $400 voucher. I said hell yes both times, nobody
else was even interested. A couple hours delay is always
worth 400 bucks, to me anyway.

The vast majority of business travelers (not necessarily in business class) book a changeable ticket since they can't be sure of their schedule and re-book or no show a relatively high percentage of the time. They are the reason that some flights still end up being overbooked. This a totally different mentality then the average tourist who knows when they are travelling. The business travelers will also gravitate towards the larger airlines with multiple flights so they can change their schedule easily, one or two flights a day don't cut it, they want options every hour or more. Unfortunately because they are the frequent flyers they will get the priority on seats.

Quote: EvenBob

. A couple hours delay is always worth 400 bucks, to me anyway.

My best bumping incident was when I was taken off the plane in exchange for several hundred dollars. I was told that it was too late to transfer my luggage. Because I was travelling without luggage, I made a connection that normally was not permitted. I beat my original flight by 45 minutes, but had to wait for my luggage.

On very rare incidents you get something for nothing.

Quote: Wizard

Perhaps one of the old-timers can address this, but it is my understanding that before the airlines were deregulated under Reagan overbooking was very rare.

No clue. But that's a spectacular way to misspell "Carter" ;)

Quote:

In my opinion, there is some optimal balance between the private sector and government oversight. In the case of the airline industry there is too little regulation, and airlines should be punished for overbooking, at least in my opinion. Like I said before, I think $1,000 per incident sounds about right.

Read this account about the latest airline regulations:

Passenger Rights and the Law of Unintended Consequences

It's a good example on how regulations tend to make bad things worse.

Each flight has a load factor which once reached means that the next ticket sold is pure profit, so an unfilled seat can be costly. Many people used to make multiple reservations. The No Show history of a flight can get skewed suddenly by a group booking. The fact that most tickets are now electronic tickets means that the Next Flight Out rule is not applicable and so airlines are no longer required to book you on a competing flight. Some passengers didn't even know that a Next Flight Out wasn't limited to the particular airline that had sold them the ticket.

I think pricing of tickets is silly as is the reservation system.

Alot of people are now shipping their luggage and some have started going to Xjet which has a free-floating fleet of small jets or they are using matchup services for corporate jets that would otherwise be deadheading.

Quote: pacomartin

It seems that airlines are taking advantage four ways: (1) extreme penalties for last minute cancellation (2) inability to transfer a seat to another person, (3) overbooking, and (4) feeble inducements to induce people to voluntarily give up a seat.

One could argue that transferring seats is a security hazard, but I don't buy it. If you do it with enough time, the new passenger could register online and show up with the proper identification. He would be no more risky than the original passenger. It's just an excuse.

The terms of the poll only address one of the four contstraints. Airlines can relax any or all of them in some predetermined manner, and involuntary bumping should vanish. If not, then the airlines should be treated as any other business that knowingly breaks a contract.

Paco I hate to be standing up for the airlines but it is the passenger that has made the decision. I can still fly for less now then I could before deregulation. What I gave up for that is flexability and a secure seat. If you want to maintain those options then you need to pay for a full option ticket. This is what happens when the consumer insists on the cheapest price, it always costs you somewhere else.

In the 60's I flew to Europe and had 19 stops on my ticket at no extra cost. The ticket cost almost $600, I can fly to Europe for less than that today. Good Luck on the 26 free layovers though.

Quote: pacomartin

My best bumping incident was when I was taken off the plane in exchange for several hundred dollars. I was told that it was too late to transfer my luggage.

When I go to Vegas all I take is a carry-on, its
amazing what you can cram into one. I saw
a family of 4 at the car rental that had 16 bags
between them and they were there for only 3
days. They couldn't fit it in the car and had to rent
an SUV for a lot more money. It takes all kinds.

They use a newsvendor-algorithm to find the right number of seats to overbook.

If no one takes the voucher offer, I believe they are legally required to offer CASH to whoever they involuntarily bump. I was on a flight where they offered $300 voucher, no one took it, so I got bumped (last one to drop my bags, as I understood it) and was given a cheque for $300. If the delay was longer than 4 hours, it was going to be $600, but it was only 3 hours.

I see folks being bumped every time I fly. They're always the late-comers. If it matters to you, then be early. Some of you (EvenBob...) may show up last minute JUST so you can score the $400, then you arrive at your destination right on time since you had booked a way-too-early flight to begin with...so congrats on workin' da system. Maybe I should try that next time.

Quote: zippyboy

Some of you (EvenBob...) may show up last minute JUST so you can score the $400,

Nope, both times I was already seated on the
plane and they went down the aisle asking for
volunteers.

Quote: Nareed

No clue. But that's a spectacular way to misspell "Carter" ;)

I stand corrected. Thank you.

Quote: Nareed

Read this account about the latest airline regulations:

Passenger Rights and the Law of Unintended Consequences

It's a good example on how regulations tend to make bad things worse.

For one thing, I oppose hard and fast markers, like the three hour rule. Same thing with "no child left behind," but that is another topic. I think there should be a penalty for every minute you keep passengers on the plane before takeoff beyond some reasonable amount of time, like 30 minutes. In the case of that story you linked to some planes should have never attempted to leave and just cancelled the flight or waited for weather to get better.

Quote: zippyboy

I see folks being bumped every time I fly. They're always the late-comers. If it matters to you, then be early. Some of you (EvenBob...) may show up last minute JUST so you can score the $400, then you arrive at your destination right on time since you had booked a way-too-early flight to begin with...so congrats on workin' da system. Maybe I should try that next time.

In my experience it goes by who BOOKED last. When we went to Hawaii I purchased tickets for everyone except my brother in law months in advance. When my brother in law decided to go I bought him a ticket about two weeks in advance. He was the one who didn't get on the plane.

However, with Southwest, I would agree with you. It is getting comical how to game their policies.

I had a good thing going for a while on weekend trips from GSO to PHL on US Air. Piulots would be deadheading home out of Greensboro NC to the Philly hub on the 1:45 flight. You could get a $300 travel voucher and leave on the 3:10 flight if you volunteered to give up your seat to a home bound pilot. I made a couple of those deals.

Quote: Wizard

For one thing, I oppose hard and fast markers, like the three hour rule.

Sure. But that's how such regulations always get made.

Quote:

I think there should be a penalty for every minute you keep passengers on the plane before takeoff beyond some reasonable amount of time, like 30 minutes.

that wouldn't work. for one thing weather delays are both unpredictable and beyond anyone's control. For another:

Quote:

In the case of that story you linked to some planes should have never attempted to leave and just cancelled the flight or waited for weather to get better.

They attempted to leave either thinking they could leave, or not knowing exactly when they could leave. There are only so many gates, too, and you can't keep them occupied if they're needed.

I should mention that I always take the redeye flight
at 1am, its the last flight to my area before morning.
There seems to be more desperate people when that
flight is full than at other times.

I love volunteering to get bumped. A couple times I scored a $300 voucher for a seat on a flight 50 minutes later. I'll take $360/hour delay pay anyday.

I have never been involuntarily bumped, and I only took a voluntary bump one time, back about 1987. That time, I had made it to the airport late and missed my flight (no penalty). They gave me a choice of two later flights, one departing first but with an intermediate stop, and a later direct flight. I chose the one with the intermediate stop because I didn't want to sit around the airport. When I boarded, they asked for volunteers. I agreed to get off provided they could get me on the later direct flight that had been offered before. They could, so I changed flights. Overall, I got a travel voucher for free because I got to the airport too late for my scheduled flight. Yep, things have changed in the past 20 years or so.

I am flying different routes than I did 20 or 30 years ago, but the big thing I notice now is that most of my flights are full, with additional people waiting for standby seats. Back in the 80's I took a bunch of flights with plenty of vacant seats. Flying with lots of vacant seats vs. overbooking and sometimes paying a penalty is a business decision. If they priced tickets based on flying 2/3 full, I doubt I would be able to fly very often.

Once in the late 60's, I took a flight one night from Charlotte to Atlanta in which the entire list of occupants included pilot, co-pilot, two flight attendants, a GI, and me. If you just considered that individual flight segment, the airline lost a bundle, but I'm sure they kept that segment flying because they needed the equipment in Atlanta the following morning. Airline scheduling is an extremely complex issue going well beyond matching the number of tickets sold to the number of seats on a particular flight segment on a particular day, even though that's the factor that the passengers pay attention to. Airlines schedule routes, not flight segments, and they try to do it in a manner that makes competitive business sense.

Quote: Nareed

Sure. But that's how such regulations always get made.

They shouldn't be. I hate to derail the topic, but with "no child left behind" the motive is to get as many kids to pass a certain test as possible. So the ones to would pass anyway, or have no hope pass, DO get left behind. You end up putting the resources around the kids who could go either way. That is what happens if there is a certain bar, jump over it or fail trying.

In the case of your story, some planes should not be loading with passengers if there are already over 20 planes in line to take off. If there is bad weather limiting departures, some flights should simply be canceled, preferably those with the fewest number of passengers.

At least to me it seems the airlines have no respect for the value of the time of their passengers. They are treated like cattle and your story shows the airlines still don't care about the passengers, just avoiding fines. If a system of carrots and sticks cannot be devised to keep passengers from sitting on the runways for hours then the air traffic controllers should simply cancel/delay some flights if the lines get too long.

I strongly feel that intelligent minds could find a reasonable compromise between the interests of the airlines and passengers. Unfortunately, having worked in government for ten years, those with the decision making power are not necessarily the ones with intelligent minds.

Some thoughts, from a fairly frequent flyer 34,000 feet somewhere over Colorado.

Airlines use an algorithm to predict how many people who book a flight will actually board a flight. There are many factors at play: (1) business travellers purchasing changable / refundable tickets may not fly; (2) flights that are close together will actually have a number of people leave the scheduled flight for an earlier flight on stand-by, and (3) weather and other factors make people miss connections, and a flight that was booked full shows up with a number of missing or extra passengers because of missed connections. Sometimes a high status passenger (such as a United Premier Executive) who misses a flight will bump someone off a full flight. I've seen that happen before, on Air Canada, on United, on Alaska, and on US Airways.

I don't have a problem with the airline gambling with the overbooking of a plane. To correct the Wiz, STATUS passengers always get on the plane no matter when they book or check in. FULL FARE passengers also get on the plane no matter when they book or check in. It is those who are not frequent flyers with the airline and who pay the lowest fare, AND check in last, and have no seat assignment, who get involuntary bumped. And the number of involuntary bumps is very low at 0.87 bumps per 10,000 passengers for the 1st 6 months of 2011 (the voluntary bump rate is 10.16 / 10,000). DOT penalties up to 100% of the one way fare (max $400) for bumps of 2 hours or less and 200% of the one way fare (max $800) for longer delays. DOT has a number of exceptions: load-balancing / weight bumps are not compensated. Regional flights are much worse than the mainlines as they have fewer seats and widely varying load factors and the ecomonic incentive to fill up planes more.

The way I see it, because of the factors above, the airline rarely really knows how many people are going to show up for the flight. So, oversell a few seats and take heart in knowing that the voluntary to involuntary bump ratio is 11:1, and that there are folks who play the game and who don't mind the extra money.

For me personally, I've been involuntary bumped once on a flight from Toronto to Sault Ste Marie. That was about 9 years ago and I got a $300 travel voucher. I've voluntary bumped a couple of times, once from Vancouver to Toronto, and another time I believe from Vegas. Compensation was fine. I've also been moved forward to executive class a few times to accomodate stand by passengers and full flights (Operational upgrades), and I've seen stand-by charges been waived many times because the airline expected their later flights to be full.

Quote: boymimbo

And the number of involuntary bumps is very low at 0.87 bumps per 10,000 passengers for the 1st 6 months of 2011 .

That is certainly not my experience. My involuntary bump rate is more like 5%. I see it happening to other passengers all the time when I was one of the lucky ones who secured a seat, for whatever reason.

Case in point, the Spring Break trip from Las Vegas to Honolulu. Hawaiian Airlines involuntarily bumped several passengers besides my brother in law. I doubt there were a lot of business travelers on that flight. You book a flight to Hawaii for spring break and chances are pretty good you're going to show up. There is no excuse for significantly overselling that flight.

Bump rates by airline

Highlights: If you never want to be bumped, fly JetBlue. They do not overbook flights.
Hawaiian's involuntary bump rate for the 1st six months of 2011: 1 in every 124,726 passengers. Chances are you experienced an anomaly or a computer problem.

Penalties are now max $650 / $1,300 depending on the delay, and now up to double the cost of the ticket for 2 hour delays or less and FOUR times the cost of the ticket for delays longer than two hours. That came into effect earlier this month.

So the penalties are now much stiffer.

Quote: AZDuffman

Airlines are regulated by both the Warsaw Pact and special domestic regulations other businesses do not deal with.

Warsaw convention, I think. Warsaw Pact is no longer functioning.... Same rules define how much compensation you get for missing and lost luggage. It's three fifths of bugger all.

If you look at the ticket details ( the rules, man.... They print them out), it defines the terms of carriage, and the chances of being bumped. I've been bumped once on this trip already... But I am flying a cheap stand by ticket... I'll take the chances, the only flight I didn't want to miss I got bumped from, but the rest... It's a few extra hours somewhere I wanted to be anyways.

Quote: boymimbo

Bump rates by airline
Hawaiian's involuntary bump rate for the 1st six months of 2011: 1 in every 124,726 passengers. Chances are you experienced an anomaly or a computer problem.

The thing is, the person who experiences the anomaly has a hard time believing it is one. Hawaiian seemed to have the routine down too. Offering a crappy incentive to be bumped and they were completely unapologetic about the situation to those who got involuntarily bumped. I seriously think Hawaiian is not being honest in reporting their figures. To maintain that ratio that would mean that 873,082 passengers flew Hawaiian without getting bumped in that period of time to make up for it. That should be a significant portion of their total load for six months.

Homework: Here is a math problem to illustrate my point. Let's say the bump rate of an honest airline is 1 in 125,000. The bump rate of a dishonest airline is 1 in 10,000. 90% of airlines are honest. YOU get bumped on your one and only flight with the airline. What are the chances YOUR airline is dishonest, based on the information you have? Assume all airlines fly the same number of passengers.

10 %



You said "90% of airlines are honest" therefore 10% are dishonest.

Honest airlines =9 x 1m pas. / 125k = 8 bumped per airline x 9 = 72
Dishonest =1 x 1m pas. / 10k = 100 bumped p/airline x 1 = 100
Total of 172 bumped pas.
100/172 = 58.14%
Dishonest bumped pas rate is 58.14% (chance your bump was dishonest)

However I would say the honest airlines are reporting the truth that 1 in 10,000 get bumped
therefore 72/172 = 41.86% would be the true dishonest bump rate.

It sure looks like they they don't have any respect for our time, but, I think, the reality is the opposite.
If they canceled flights instead of delaying them, it would end up costing us much more in both time and money. People would miss their connecting flights. Lose prepaid hotel reservations. Have to pay for new ones. How about missing something rather big, like a cruise ship? Not only people whose flight got delayed and canceled are affected. That plane is needed at destination now to fly somewhere else. So, that flight needs to be canceled too now, and meanwhile, the airline pays insane fees for keeping the plane at the airport, using the gate etc. People, who were supposed on the canceled flight need to get where they are going eventually, probably bumping someone off their flight. In two words, they don't like canceling flights, because it ends up being a lot more expensive, and inconvenient, and a lot more people are affected by it, than if the flight is delayed, even significantly.

Regarding bumping passengers. There is very little that can be done about it unfortunately. The problem is that the airline operations are so damn expensive. If they sold all tickets at cost, they would never be able to sell enough to pay for the flight (they would be too expensive), so they have to invent all kinds of tricks to stay in business. For one thing, they have insanely complicated pricing algorithms, that tell you how much it will cost you to fly A to B on a particular day. You may have paid four times as much for your ticket as the guy sitting next to you on the same plane. That's airline pricing system at work. Overbooking is another way to turn loss into profit. A certain number of tickets does get canceled before the flight, sometimes people just do not show up. If the airline was not able to overbook, the tickets would have to cost more. Now, if you do not mind, you can already pay more and not run a risk of getting bumped. Just look for FULL FARE tickets. Those are way more expensive than what people usually buy, and there are so few of them sold, that there is never any risk of overbooking.

Quote: whatme

Dishonest bumped pas rate is 58.14% (chance your bump was dishonest)

Correct.

If you go here:

Flightaware.com

and find a flight(or route) to track, then go to the 'airline insight' section(located to the right of the flight tracking map) it'll give you revenue numbers and other info. for that airline/route etc.

Here's a quick link to a flight if you don't want to go through all the above, it's from IAH(Houston) and RSW(Ft. Myers, FL):

Linky

It's statistics at work here. Hawaiian flew 4.243 million passengers in the first 6 months of 2011. What you probably saw is an anomaly, a key flight during the busiest time of the year at the right time of the day to a hub city (LAX/SFO). Consider that Hawaiian does a great deal of interisland traffic where the load factors aren't there to fill the planes. Ask yourself, what is the most likely time and place that an involuntary bump will occur? Answer is probably a spring break flight on a heavy travel day. The programmers at Hawaiian probably didn't factor that into their load statistics.

I'm not excusing the airlines. JetBlue does not sell more seats on a plane than it owns. The big carriers need all the help they can get from a revenue standpoint. The DOT has recognized that those who are involuntarily bumped are offered double the one-way fare (max $650) if your flight ends you at your destination 1-2 hours behind your original departure, and up to 4 times the one-way fare (max $1,300) if your flight ends you at your destination more than 2 hours behind your original departure.

I'm not sure what policing structure DOT has in place with the airlines. They keep track of a number of statistics (on-time performance, delays) and I am sure they have policies in place and access to their ticket systems and flight performance systems to properly monitor the airlines.

Quote: boymimbo

It's statistics at work here. Hawaiian flew 4.243 million passengers in the first 6 months of 2011. What you probably saw is an anomaly, a key flight during the busiest time of the year at the right time of the day to a hub city (LAX/SFO). Consider that Hawaiian does a great deal of interisland traffic where the load factors aren't there to fill the planes. Ask yourself, what is the most likely time and place that an involuntary bump will occur? Answer is probably a spring break flight on a heavy travel day. The programmers at Hawaiian probably didn't factor that into their load statistics.

Then the programmers were remiss in their duties. They should know the probability of a passenger showing up by departure city, arrival city, time of flight, and the date. It should be obvious that passengers are going to show up the first Saturday and Sunday of Spring Break going to Hawaii. Granted that Spring Break floats around the calendar, but they should be smart enough to adjust for that. I offer zero forgiveness.

Quote: boymimbo

I'm not excusing the airlines. JetBlue does not sell more seats on a plane than it owns. The big carriers need all the help they can get from a revenue standpoint. The DOT has recognized that those who are involuntarily bumped are offered double the one-way fare (max $650) if your flight ends you at your destination 1-2 hours behind your original departure, and up to 4 times the one-way fare (max $1,300) if your flight ends you at your destination more than 2 hours behind your original departure.

That isn't what they did with my brother in law. They ended up putting him on another airline going through SFO. He arrived in Hawaii about eight hours late. They offered him a non-transferable voucher for $400, which is roughly the same as the cost of the trip. Four times the one way fare? Give me a break! I don't think they fly from LAS to HNL for $100.

Quote: boymimbo

I'm not sure what policing structure DOT has in place with the airlines. They keep track of a number of statistics (on-time performance, delays) and I am sure they have policies in place and access to their ticket systems and flight performance systems to properly monitor the airlines.

How would the DOT know he wasn't a voluntary bump, had Hawaiian chosen to lie about it?

Wizard, you're a stats genius, and you are right to offer zero forgiveness. There are a multitude of different spring breaks however, and the programmers were probably too lazy to calculate what the exact load factors were expected to be given when the spring breaks were. They probably just go after an average of previous traffic and go with that. Predicting how many people and the type of customer on a given flight 4-6 months in advance is not an easy exercise. The programmers MAY have to put in their inputs when the flights are offered for sales (typically a year in advance of travel) in which case they may not even have the spring break schedules. Still, there should be a place within the programming to change the algorithm by city-pair, by flight number, by day-of-travel, etc.

The law that went from 2x to 4x the one way fare took place in September in this year. The mandatory offer should have been an offer up to the lesser of $800 up to a maximum of two times the one way fare (which was the law in effect at the time of travel). It's conceivable that a one way fare from Hawaii to the mainland was $200 at the time this mishap happened. Your brother-in-law also must receive a pamphlet explaining his rights if he was involuntary bumped.

As for Hawaiian choosing to lie, what incentive do they have in lying? Look at United's figures for involunatary bumping. They're ridiculously high. When people fly, probably the last thing they think about is being involuntarily bumped, and it completely sucks when it happens to you. DOT collects a myriad of statistics and probably has a number of auditors to ensure that compliance is there. All it would take is a complaint from your brother in law to the DOT and a call from DOT to Hawaiian to figure out that they were lying. I'm not sure what the penalty is for lying.

But airline travel sites even up to a few years ago were not that sophisticated. A large online travel company I used to work for had a hell of a time figuring out what price to display on the screen to passengers. Typically airline fares are stored at a centralized repository such as worldspan, and every time you queried that server for pricing, you took a hit on performance and there was a cost factor. Because a great deal of travel shoppers online are browsing only, the website had to figure out a way to increase performance yet yield meaningful results. So, when it came time to actually purchase the ticket, the website HAD to access the server to get the correct pricing for that ticket (as that class fare may have sold out), which inevitably led to complaints (my price went up when the price posted was lower) as the web site in question didn't want to take a trip to the server to display every fare when the user was just browsing. It was a fun problem to work out.

Airlines also guarantee access to their frequent fliers, even on sold-out flights (UAL makes this promise to their 1K class, for instance). Ironically, they usually exempt those same last-minute buyers from the involuntary bumping process.

For myself, if the rebooked flight is soon enough, and the airline will pay for food/hotel/ground transport, I'm more than happy to take their $400 travel credit and voluntarily be bumped. Assuming I can find a comped room somewhere, that's a free trip to Vegas in exchange for nothing more than a few hours' delay.

Quote: boymimbo

There are a multitude of different spring breaks however, and the programmers were probably too lazy to calculate what the exact load factors were expected to be given when the spring breaks were.

Then they need better programmers as they are also missing an opportunity to maximize price when the demand climbs. Ever look at Las Vegas hotel rates? Those rate calendars know exactly when every convention is in town as well as all of the sporting events and price the rooms accordingly. A lot of this could even be automated based upon early booking patterns.

Quote: Wizard

In the case of your story, some planes should not be loading with passengers if there are already over 20 planes in line to take off.

If you wait longer there will be more planes in line.

Quote:

If there is bad weather limiting departures, some flights should simply be canceled, preferably those with the fewest number of passengers.

Again, weather delays are unpredictable. Suppose you cancela flight and it turns out it could have taken off 35 minutes later?

Quote:

If a system of carrots and sticks cannot be devised to keep passengers from sitting on the runways for hours then the air traffic controllers should simply cancel/delay some flights if the lines get too long.

Air traffic controlers don't have the authority to cancel a flight. What they do is manage arrivals and departures and direct traffic at the area their responsible for. It's a big, comlpex job, and your safety depends largely on them doing it well, but they ahve their limitations. They can close an airport to arivvlas, departures or both for a variety of reasons, including weather. But not cancel fligths. In some borderline cases, BTW, ATC may leave the decision to take off or land to the pilots.

Then too consider how crowded American airports are. The US is a big and prosperous country, so flying makes more sense than other forms of transportation. Planes ahve been getting smaller, too. Airlines prefer to offer more flights per day in smaller planes. It helps, or hurts, that small and medium planes have become more fuel efficient and can traverse ever longer distances.

Smaller planes also are operated by regional airlines who pay their employees much less than their mainline counterparts.

The decision to take off or land is always the final decision of the pilots. ATC must always authorize a takeoff or landing clear. There are many factors at play as to whether to cancel a flight. The plane might be needed at its destination the next morning; the airport itself (such as Toronto - closed from 1am to 6am) closes; there is only one flight a day; the pilots and flight crew have maximized their hours for the day/week/month. It's very complex.

Weather delays are not just at destination. ATC is an old antiquidated system that use flight paths and waypoints to move planes across the country. As a result, a departure or arrival path may close due to bad weather and the other alternate paths become full thus creating a cascading delay. Once again, it's very complex. The airline industry has been pressing the FAA and congress to modernize its ATC system to allow for direct routing which would free up airspace, especially in the NorthEast which is perpetually in delay due to airspace issues.

There have been a number of valid arguments on both sides of this issue. I think a good case has been made for why airlines NEED to continue to use the bump process. However, the way it is currently implemented is NOT FAIR, to the air traveler. If you are a frequent flier, you understand how the game is played. Much like the casino games, there are a number of unwritten items that you need to understand to maximize your flying experience. If you fly infrequently, you may get tripped up by the bump process, just like Wiz's brother-in-law.

There needs to be more disclosure on the process. At the time you purchase a ticket, you should be told the maximum number of seats may be oversold, and how that may affect you.
There should be an option to pay a certain fee to guarantee your seat is not involuntarily bumped. AND this should NOT be based on how much you paid for your ticket at time of purchase.
Someone who pays full price for a ticket 1 hour before boarding should not have priority over someone who booked via the internet at 70% savings one month ago.
I don't think frequent flier perks should allow Super Customer A to invalidate a contract that El Cheapo Interenet flier made with the carrier when they booked 1 month ago. The airline was glad to get their money back then, they should have to honor that contract.
If people not showing up for flights is the issue, address that issue. Make all tickets non-refundable. Or, do what many other businesses do. If the seat goes empty, no refund. If someone else takes your place, then you get the price of that ticket refunded to you, up to the price you paid, minus a REASONABLE service fee. If the airline has to sell the seat for 90% off, oh well, show up for the flight next time.

Involuntary bumping due to oversold flights should not be taken lightly. If I have 5 days in Hawaii planned, and I lose 1 day because I got bumped off a flight I booked 2 months ago, that is just plain WRONG. $400 or $800 does not make up for the missed time in Hawaii. $2000 may not make up for it.

When the flight is full, the airline should be required to notify the next purchasers that they are on stand-by. The airline will ask for volunteers, but if no one steps up, then that ticket will be exchanged for another flight of the person's choice.

There are hundreds of ways that this issue could be, and should be, addressed so that the airline and the passengers are protected. Nothing is happening though, because right now, the advantage lies with the airlines. And history has shown they are not going to make changes, until they feel threatened with legislation or regulations.

Quote: Nareed

If you wait longer there will be more planes in line...Again, weather delays are unpredictable. Suppose you cancela flight and it turns out it could have taken off 35 minutes later?

In the case of your story the passengers had to sit on the plane for six hours before it took off. In my opinion it was selfish of the airline to keep them in that plane to make the flight at all costs. In such circumstances the airlines should attempt to keep some passengers in the terminal and limit boardings to what the airport can handle. There should not be dozens of planes full of passengers just sitting around waiting for a break in the weather. It is much more comfortable to wait in the terminal.

In my opinion if there are more than x planes waiting to take off then further boardings should be delayed until the backlog clears up. Canceling some flights should be a last resort when clearly not every plane will be able to get out.

From beginning to end airline passengers are treated like cattle. Public buses are more comfortable. When I returned to Vegas on Air Canada they even charged for peanuts/chips. It would be nice if there were one airline that didn't overbook, gave an extra three inches of leg room, and at least offered free snacks. For that, I would be happy to pay 50% more, and I think the nicities would cost significantly less than that. Why is it that in Vegas there is everything from the Western to the Wynn, but all the airlines are roughly the Circus Circus when it comes to quality and amenities. Why is there no Bellagio airline, or at least the Flamingo?

By the way, I would like to put in a good word for Jet Blue. I have never had a bad experience with them, although I think they could be better.

I hate spending any more time in the aluminum tube than I have to. If that means boarding last, that's fine by me. I'm often humored by the people that can't wait to get on board.

RaleighCraps and I have both mentioned the complicating factor of an airline having to get their equipment to the next destination, not just the passengers. This comes into play both in the issue of scheduling routes and in delays due to weather or other impediments.

Here is a related factor I think comes into play occasionally and results in bumping, either voluntary or involuntary. A flight is scheduled with a specific number of seats. Those seats are sold (and perhaps eventually overbooked in anticipation of no-shows). Then, either at the last moment or sometimes days or weeks in advance, there arises an issue with equipment scheduling, and another aircraft must be used for the flight, with fewer seats than the number of tickets that have already been sold. Changing the equipment may not be something the airline wants to do, but if they don't have equipment available that is equivalent to what they originally planned, then they are faced with the options of carrying most of the passengers who have purchased tickets or cancelling the flight and not getting anyone to their destination. What would you prefer that they do? Bump a few or bump everyone?

I have no idea how often this issue arises, but with the number of aircraft that they are trying to schedule, the frequency of schedule changes, and the frequency of unanticipated maintenance issues, I suspect it is fairly common. Most of the time they seem to be able to get a suitable replacement craft, but not always.

Quote: Doc

I have no idea how often this issue arises, but with the number of aircraft that they are trying to schedule, the frequency of schedule changes, and the frequency of unanticipated maintenance issues, I suspect it is fairly common. Most of the time they seem to be able to get a suitable replacement craft, but not always.

I think it's quite common, especially between hub airports. Just this year, I've been on 2 flights between the same two airports where the plane was downgraded on the day of travel. ORD to SFO is a leg that UAL would prefer to fly with A320s & 757s, all else being equal. But there's also a need to shuffle 777s and 767s between the two hubs. If a 777 doesn't come into ORD as scheduled, a 757 makes the journey to SFO (without 80ish displaced passengers).