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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 29th, 2020 at 8:04:33 PM permalink
Day trading apparently has been proven to not work or be useless economically due to high frequency trading, per wikipedia.

Profitability
A 2019 research paper looked at the performance of individual day traders in the Brazilian equity futures market.[21] Based on trading records from 2012 to 2017, they conclude that day trading is almost uniformly unprofitable. According to their abstract:

We show that it is virtually impossible for individuals to compete with HFTs and day trade for a living, contrary to what course providers claim. We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and who persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of US$2,560). We find no evidence of learning by day trading.

There is still investing left.
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 30th, 2020 at 9:03:02 AM permalink
It's nice to look at my portfolio and see it's gone up 5% in value, but then see the volatility of a roller coaster swinging hundreds every hour. Johnson and Johnson is planning an untested vaccine for a billion people to reach us a year from now and the US government is paying for them to not make much money, taking all the risks. I'm not in JNJ, just mentioning it because it affects my investments, which are GILD, and some MRNA.

This kind of scary

Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 30, 2020
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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March 30th, 2020 at 1:32:55 PM permalink
JNJ said they weren't making money off these vaccines, and didn't even know if they would work. People bought the stock all day and it was up 8% for the day. Just looked in after hours, all those gains are gone and negative. The stock dropped from $132 to $123 in minutes after-hours trading. I'd be tempted to get into that one. Not now, because it should probably fall more once all the newcomers get out. I'm tempted to get into B2G. I don't even remember why I started watching that stock, it's pretty cheap, a few pennies can make a big day if you buy enough shares. Will probably avoid it and just hold onto my strategy. I'd just be crushed emotionally if my gain would have been better just sticking with the pharma stocks. Don't get margin on the small B2G, so would rather have the gains be double my value.

Well apparently something weird happened with J2J, it crashed, then completely recovered. That makes no sense. It went straight down, held(assumed there was a hold), then straight up. I also saw some strange price changes the same after-hours for HD, might have been all a glitch on robinhood, makes no sense.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 30, 2020
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Suited89
Suited89
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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onenickelmiracle
April 2nd, 2020 at 9:12:50 AM permalink
One distressed REIT I recently purchased is Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT). A solid company hit hard by lack of travel and non-essential purchasing. My long-term COVID-19 horizon of 18-24 months fits well, as the stock is off more than 67%. A press release made me rethink my decision to sit tight, and bought some at the close yesterday. Basically, I'm over 90% invested at this point.

Regards
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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April 2nd, 2020 at 9:20:33 AM permalink
I tell you I wish I was wise and experienced. I have managed to at this point have unrealized gains, but it's not even 3% gain in 3 weeks. 2 weeks ago, I thought the sky was falling and so did everyone else. I'd be a crazed nut to not think so. I didn't even know Bill Ackman drove down all the markets that 3/18, but that was the day I was going to sell off, and that was the day I lost 10% on paper. I also wasn't even awake to sell, so wasn't an option I could have took because I just didn't care enough. There is just so much to second guess.
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Suited89
Suited89
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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onenickelmiracle
April 2nd, 2020 at 9:29:07 AM permalink
The scenario you speak of is a little complex, but known. The best I can explain is that the month of March had quite a lot of activity expected for three basic reasons;

1.) Quadruple witching on the 20th
2.) End-of-fiscal quarter on 31st
3.) Quarterly rebalancing of institutional portfolios on 31st, BUT most giga$ players start early, and REBALANCE AGAIN shortly after the new quarter begins. This is called 'window-dressing'. Its temporary, and makes some portfolios (think of mutual funds for a good example) look better than they actually are, thus the term.

***EDIT Adding this*** I forgot to add Margin calls to all the panic-mode activities in the next paragraph. Might see this again, disrupting the market.

Now lets add the COVID-19 near panic reactions in the market. I have no doubt large, possibly wild swings can and or do occur. In the short-term of perhaps 2-3 weeks this will continue, and may extend further if company quarterly reports ending March (usually made in April) are 'not in line' with expected (poor) results.

JMHO
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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April 2nd, 2020 at 9:59:47 AM permalink
I've had my portfolio show massive swings the last few days from winner, to loser, to winner. It's nice today seeing my portfolio seem to be at a 45 degree angle. I pretty much only have GILD, MRNA and XOM at this point. Yeah I made too many moves yesterday at ETRADE and have my buying power locked for now, but I'm sold at the moment and expect my pattern day trading restriction will be removed, as it can be done once every 180 days. God, i was playing with BTG yesterday, the greed really makes me wish all my money was in it from today to now, would have been 20% profit, but not really, because I can't get margin on the stock at robinhood.
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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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April 2nd, 2020 at 10:18:38 AM permalink
Sold my GILD at $75.27, going to try timing this one a bit. Uh oh. I've got to not do this pretty soon in case some great news happens when I'm doing it. It's volatile, I'll take a chance the next 14 days, being more and more scared as it gets closer to mid-April. I could see the indexes dropping with it, so far I'm on the right side. It's crazy going from one side to another, hoping stock price increases, then hoping they fall, I'm really expecting they'll fall, to be seen. I don't think I'm good on this. My hesitation to sell was $.18, looking like a good short term play to get out. I'm going to have to get back in at some point, it's just going to be yielding me more shares if I'm right for today. Oh damn, I could have gotten more MRNA, same time GILD was falling, MRNA was going straight up I can see now. I keep updating this post if it isn't apparent. I did get more from GILD into MRNA earlier, diversifying a bit more by doubling my position in MRNA at $31.85.


gambling, just gambling. I shouldn't be doing this. Lol. Any other day, and the stock drops $3 when I hold it like today.
Reality is quite a *****. I'm going to stop this lol. I'm just not happy unless I'm right every time.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Apr 2, 2020
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Suited89
Suited89
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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onenickelmiracle
April 2nd, 2020 at 10:23:00 AM permalink
Right now my essentially full potfolio consists of

IRM paper-recycle for business REIT
OHI health-care facility REIT
WY paper product manufacture (land REIT portion) aka Weyerhauser Paper
DRH hotel REIT
INN hotel REIT
DRJ hotel REIT
F Ford Motor Co.
SKT Factory Outlet Store REIT aka Tanger Factory Outlets

All of these except Ford were on good solid ground before COVID-19. My investments here are looking forward 18-24 months. I'll suffer the slings and arrows for now.

Regards
Suited89
some people need to reimagine their thinking
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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April 2nd, 2020 at 12:04:45 PM permalink
Quote: Suited89

Right now my essentially full potfolio consists of

IRM paper-recycle for business REIT
OHI health-care facility REIT
WY paper product manufacture (land REIT portion) aka Weyerhauser Paper
DRH hotel REIT
INN hotel REIT
DRJ hotel REIT
F Ford Motor Co.
SKT Factory Outlet Store REIT aka Tanger Factory Outlets

All of these except Ford were on good solid ground before COVID-19. My investments here are looking forward 18-24 months. I'll suffer the slings and arrows for now.

Regards
Suited89



I have a Ford bond. I think it is classified as junk now. Trading at 70 cents on the dollar. So the buyers and sellers must think there is a real high possibility of Ford going bankrupt? Do you disagree?

Right now it matures in 2026 and pays 4.25% If Ford was on solid footing, would probably be trading at 112 instead of 70.

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