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onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 2nd, 2021 at 3:51:39 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

What we all need is inside information*. You and I don't have it. 

Oh, information is out there. Mostly it is noise, though. Engineers have an expression, "what is the signal to noise ratio?". With investing, there is very little signal in all the noise. If you think you've got a good ratio, you are probably mistaken, as in "I really think TSLA will drop considerably within 3 weeks", this kind of thing, if it was reliable, would turn you into a multimillionaire in no time. 

What can the small investor do? Diversify and buy and hold. At the age I think you are, having seen you, do not be conservative!** Do I mean it's OK to gamble? It's not OK if you think you are investing, anymore than it's OK to gamble at -EV wagering in a casino, thinking you are going to come out ahead. Now I too gamble with stocks, a small portion set aside that is just for fun and is as likely to blow up as it is to succeed. But I don't do anything with Margin or Options. I think this is the great deservice of Robinhood, creating new investors but immediately getting them into the wrong mindset for it, and I am partly judging by you, Sir!


*which acting on is illegal, it needs to be said.
** if I sound like mr. smarty pants, be advised there is a mountain of money I never realized because I was too conservative in my investing. I still am. What I mean if I were in your shoes is stay in stocks, don't go to balanced funds or bond funds to hedge against risk. Diversification is your hedge and it is sufficient.

I always like to hear your opinions. It is being taken under advisement. I could not make my response public beyond my own eyes. I can mention my margin is small and I realize I double down on options instead of getting rid of them immediately when I first want to do so. The PTD rule definitely binds the small investors, it does not help them make the right moves. It is there to scare them and take away their freedom.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 4th, 2021 at 9:37:39 AM permalink
The TSLA puts are pretty much getting me even all time, so pretty happy at this point.
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MrV
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May 4th, 2021 at 9:50:51 AM permalink
I no longer try to pick and choose stocks to buy.

Now I just leave it to the experts at TDA, Vanguard, T Rowe Price, Fidelity and Edward Jones.

Never played with options etc.: too risky.

YMMV
"What, me worry?"
onenickelmiracle
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May 4th, 2021 at 10:18:35 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

I no longer try to pick and choose stocks to buy.

Now I just leave it to the experts at TDA, Vanguard, T Rowe Price, Fidelity and Edward Jones.

Never played with options etc.: too risky.

YMMV


Google: Michael Burry index funds
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onenickelmiracle
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May 6th, 2021 at 10:05:00 AM permalink
I really think TSLA is going to break now. Sucks being unable to call the tops and bottoms, but I'm just going to point the direction. I know it is breaking into support now, it is a matter of time. It keeps bouncing back though. Maybe every time it bounces back, another opportunity to cash in when it falls. I know all about how people have lost 40 billion shorting etc., I'm calling the point of weakness now. It will definitely be 400 before it's 800. I'm kind of afraid I'm a little, or a lot in the dark. Government intervention killed me last year because I didn't know what stimulus was going to do and don't even have cable to know what CNBC is preaching. Kramer doesn't like her strategy and has been saying things which should be a clue she is not giving the best investments out there.
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vegas
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May 6th, 2021 at 10:20:25 AM permalink
You think Tesla will hit 400 before it hits 800? Why do you think that?
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
onenickelmiracle
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May 6th, 2021 at 10:21:08 AM permalink
Actually I don't know where the support between $400 and $600 really is, maybe $540. It's going to depend on ARK failing and Woods being forced to sell TSLA because of the weight of her other stocks busting and money flowing out of her fund. Poor hippies.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 6th, 2021 at 1:19:08 PM permalink
I got rid of MNMD and GLXZ, bought more CVNA. MNMD I really should have never even purchased, greed. Although I might get back in at another point if significantly cheaper.
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vegas
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May 6th, 2021 at 3:55:24 PM permalink
Kathy Wood's has purchased a huge amount of NIO the past few months. They are a Chinese EV car builder. The stock is beat down due to the semiconductor shortage but once this gets settled this stock will run. I also have been buying NIO on the dips.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
onenickelmiracle
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May 6th, 2021 at 4:33:01 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Kathy Wood's has purchased a huge amount of NIO the past few months. They are a Chinese EV car builder. The stock is beat down due to the semiconductor shortage but once this gets settled this stock will run. I also have been buying NIO on the dips.

She isn't God. I just learned about her because I haven't been paying attention, but I think she will go down as being at the right place at the right time and just be another one of the pied pipers. People better start having the kool aid tested. I think her streak is over for now.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 6th, 2021 at 4:44:13 PM permalink
I think I could be a victim of fallacy and delusion right now, so maybe not listen to me without your own homework. I think I have finally learned my lesson to be more long term, etc., but I'm not going to adapt as needed down the line and be crushed.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2021 at 5:10:32 AM permalink
It is looking really good for me today right now, will need SPY to somehow be down big for a grand slam. I'm hesitant to rebuy puts for next week and the week after because of SNL. By Saturday, the Twitter following could reinvest DOGE into TSLA. I'm probably just going to buy 1 contract for 5/14 and 5/21 and wait for next Monday to see what happens. I'll be back all my 2020 losses by the end of the day, ahead or small loss.TSLA has been showing disastrous prices lower and lower the last few hours, vehicle registrations in Germany for April plummeted.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2021 at 5:22:59 AM permalink
I'm not sure to sell them when I choose or to wait until Robinhood sells them for me in the last hour. They say they will sell them, but something scares me to think they will just expire worthless unsold. Odds of that must be terribly low.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2021 at 5:53:52 PM permalink
I'm up .34% the last 2 weeks! I'm jacked to the tits!
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SOOPOO
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May 7th, 2021 at 6:29:56 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm up .34% the last 2 weeks! I'm jacked to the tits!

. So around 7% a year . You guarantee me 7% over the next 12 months and I’ll sign up RIGHT NOW. I wouldn’t however, feel ‘jacked to the tits’.
onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2021 at 6:45:22 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. So around 7% a year . You guarantee me 7% over the next 12 months and I’ll sign up RIGHT NOW. I wouldn’t however, feel ‘jacked to the tits’.

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onenickelmiracle
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May 9th, 2021 at 2:17:00 PM permalink
"Selling TSLA $1900 call options is a risk because TSLA can rise to infinity, but it's almost like free money."

I'm almost thinking about buying 1 long put option for Dec 17th. I cannot believe Forbes printed this article, it's such garbage and irresponsible.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2021/01/25/tesla-at-1900-is-free-money/?sh=2b637e726792

In other news, I'm scared of the CVNA stock I bought. I either hold it hoping it comes up past $268 or maybe buy a put to hedge. If you look, it has been floating between where it is now and $300, but I don't know why and don't know this will continue. All my other auto plays have been going up modestly while this one falls and I impulsively bought more as it fell.
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billryan
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May 9th, 2021 at 4:53:35 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. So around 7% a year . You guarantee me 7% over the next 12 months and I’ll sign up RIGHT NOW. I wouldn’t however, feel ‘jacked to the tits’.



Have you looked into Yield Street? They gave me a pitch a month or so ago but didn't land me. They were offering qualified accounts a six percent return on nine-month notes. I'm sure that's a teaser but I've heard mostly good things about them.
I didn't qualify for their top tier but imagine you would.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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May 9th, 2021 at 6:01:43 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Have you looked into Yield Street? They gave me a pitch a month or so ago but didn't land me. They were offering qualified accounts a six percent return on nine-month notes. I'm sure that's a teaser but I've heard mostly good things about them.
I didn't qualify for their top tier but imagine you would.



I went to their website. Certainly interesting. When you say ‘they gave me a pitch’, do you mean a mailing, an on line ad, or an actual person you spoke with? To me it seems like they are a financial advisor who picks stuff with no guarantees. I guess I’d need a person I know that has an account to give it a thumbs up before I’d seriously consider them. Thanks for the idea though.
billryan
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May 9th, 2021 at 10:16:23 PM permalink
All the above. I clicked on a targeted ad and they sent me a few email feelers. I was interested in their Prism Fund but the customer support wasn't that great. Then they sent a few teaser emails, followed by a phone call. I was thinking of giving them around 5% to run with but the rep kept upselling and trying to get me into other projects.
I don't know much about them and am not recommending them, merely pointing out such opportunities exist.
One thing I'll give them credit for was it wasn't a hard sell.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
onenickelmiracle
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May 10th, 2021 at 6:41:09 AM permalink
Dumped most CVNA. Was too scared. Guess it is overbought. Will not update so much to a thread w little interest.
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SOOPOO
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onenickelmiracle
May 10th, 2021 at 11:34:31 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Dumped most CVNA. Was too scared. Guess it is overbought. Will not update so much to a thread w little interest.



There are a few who have interest. But the thread title ‘I am an idiot’ does not engender new interest. If you just want to talk about stocks/investing feel free to tack on to my WoV portfolio thread!
onenickelmiracle
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May 10th, 2021 at 12:05:52 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There are a few who have interest. But the thread title ‘I am an idiot’ does not engender new interest. If you just want to talk about stocks/investing feel free to tack on to my WoV portfolio thread!

Well I was hoping it would be like calling someone Tiny then I became an idiot. Outside pressures then and also being confined negatively affected my picks. I could have just about kept everything I ever bought and been 500% up. I'll have to go through all the purchases. As was then, I'm putting too much time into "watching" and it's not productive. The good news is I'm almost no margin. I will read the portfolio thread and get into it there.
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unJon
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onenickelmiracleHunterhill
May 10th, 2021 at 12:40:09 PM permalink
FWIW, I enjoy reading this thread.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
onenickelmiracle
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May 10th, 2021 at 12:50:20 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

FWIW, I enjoy reading this thread.

:) Feels so Nathany.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 10th, 2021 at 12:57:01 PM permalink
Ok Do you catch the clues?



My opinion was she was really nervous. Poor man's lie detector test. She was getting ready to sell it(her pitch). She needed it to be bought. How is even possible this will bounce now? If anything all these people are locked in because they were selling calls and the stocks will be sold because of the puts. This gas pipeline thing I thought will be really bad for the short term. Don't know what can happen after the markets close, I think they should do nothing, but they won't. I think she is right long term, but individual stocks can't be given credit for making it now years out.

This video doesn't show her squirming before she speaks as she was anticipating the question. I cannot find it.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 10, 2021
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onenickelmiracle
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May 10th, 2021 at 1:54:26 PM permalink
Unfortunately this TSLA put could be in big jeopardy tomorrow if she jumps in like playing WSOP.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 11th, 2021 at 7:14:55 AM permalink
This is so stressful. I thought I wasn't using margin but I was and it's not a lot, but I am. Basically the buying power is allowing me to have 50% of my share prices available. Been buying ARKK puts as the price went up on TSLA today because they're more manageable in price. Yesterday I tried timing TSLA puts and cost myself some gains but stretched them to May 21, right or wrong.

I had noticed BTC fell immediately 1% yesterday and tried selling my COIN shares then after hours. Of course the option to trade after hours didn't work when I clicked on my laptop. TDAmeritrade, can't wait to get there.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 11th, 2021 at 9:14:24 AM permalink
This is too stressful and risky. I'm either going to liquidate today or tomorrow. I have wanted to get off Robinhood anyway. I'm against pretty much a magnified Beverly Hills shopper, just buy, buy, buy, giving the money away blindly. More so than buying a steak or car. No sense not to when the money is free from the lowest man to the biggest billionaire. I've been a little impulsive, guess that's how people are doing it. Was about a year ago I held on hours too long and it was too late. Almost got back up to the point today I could make any move I want and dipped below the level. Back to the basics.

Check that. Gas shortages.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 11th, 2021 at 12:08:01 PM permalink
Liquidated, off Robinhood now. I should not be so involved, found myself making impulsive decisions. I might have cost myself a ton of money, and might have saved myself money. Probably saved because there were a lot of stupid things I was doing and honestly you cannot trust that site to work reliably, let alone not crash.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 12th, 2021 at 7:47:24 AM permalink
If I hadn't have done that, my account would probably be up 30 or 40% right now. It's true what they say we like to protect what we have against loss more than a potential for gain.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 12th, 2021 at 7:47:26 AM permalink
If I hadn't have done that, my account would probably be up 30 or 40% right now. It's true what they say we like to protect what we have against loss more than a potential for gain.
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billryan
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May 12th, 2021 at 7:57:17 AM permalink
Just keep trying to reinvent the wheel. I'm sure you will succeed eventually.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
unJon
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May 12th, 2021 at 8:04:44 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Just keep trying to reinvent the wheel. I'm sure you will succeed eventually.



This site needs a dislike post button.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
onenickelmiracle
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May 12th, 2021 at 9:23:14 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Just keep trying to reinvent the wheel. I'm sure you will succeed eventually.


I am a robot.
billryan
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May 12th, 2021 at 9:44:54 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

If I hadn't have done that, my account would probably be up 30 or 40% right now. It's true what they say we like to protect what we have against loss more than a potential for gain.




At a certain point, protecting one's nest egg is more important than growing it. At 62, I'm much more conservative with my investments than I was at 42. It would be foolish not to be.
If a hundred-dollar stock drops 50%, it now must go up 100% just to break even.
I recently signed up with a new advisor. I got an email last night telling me my portfolio went up 1.87% last week. Obviously, the guy is a genius and I should now expect similar returns each week, right?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
onenickelmiracle
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May 12th, 2021 at 2:10:57 PM permalink
Think it would have been close to 50% today. In my mind things could have turned around the wrong way today, and I could have been down way more than I had wanted. Quite a few things I was not confident in I did yesterday. First thing I was buying puts on ARKK, thinking it was getting to TSLA. It was but the fund had a lot of winners yesterday. I had switched my view on CVNA and had puts on it. It was rebounding yesterday and I didn't get it. I didn't see why TSLA was rebounding for sure. Thought maybe some shorts were coming in, but didn't know. The general market is selling off, so some of these stocks are just amplifications. I've emptied out at that brokerage and don't even care that much. What could have been tens of thousands over the course of the short term, don't care much about that either. Seems like it would be this way, but things are so up and down, hard to say where they finish. People being afraid of inflation, they're going to want to pull out money so they can even afford part of the things they're dreaming of, plus this pipeline chaos. Wasn't reflected yesterday, would have been nice. So I'm just straight up shorting TSLA on a small level now for the time being, do not want to get back in after these missed gains with options.

This has not even been worth it for me anyway. It was all I cared about for 2 weeks and to be honest, I just seem to be watching a green line for hours like it's a horse race or football game. Checking this, checking that, reading this. Hardly even took care of myself, wasn't leaving the house, just obsessed. have been sick too. Had thought maybe COVID, but it's better already,

Added: Just looked up some of the puts I had and most increased 50, 70 and 100% today. Yuck. Never know where they land when I would have sold, but the very short term future looks red for days.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 12, 2021
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onenickelmiracle
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May 13th, 2021 at 10:09:14 AM permalink
When I had heard about The Honest Company IPO, I had thought a product sold primarily to females would be a good company which could be profitable and very profitable. Then I found out the shareholders essentially just sold out their shares to the public and cashed out with only a small fraction of the IPO going to fund the business. Everywhere I look, people are saying they wouldn't buy the stock until $4. They don't even know if the company can even become profitable. They're dependent on a few retailers like Target. I wouldn't recommend them and would recommend betting against them at this point.

EditedL: meant to say $7 not $4.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 13, 2021
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onenickelmiracle
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May 13th, 2021 at 1:32:56 PM permalink
Just noticed an Etrade referral if anyone is interested. They give you and me a $50 Amazon gift card if you open an account and deposit $500, if you open this link and sign up through it.

https://refer.etrade.net/6f0m4n
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onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2021 at 12:37:29 PM permalink
Took some call options on COIN today. Really liked hearing how many transactions going on at COIN. On the negative, heard 8% wiped out trading crypto. Also to the negative JPOW came out talking about a digital dollar. Hasn't seemed to create an impact yet. I'm slightly afraid of a sell off after the markets close. I'm covered slightly if so. I'm just short term on this.

Starting to feel momentarily bullish about TSLA for a short time, very slightly over the next couple months. As much bad news has come out and they're just buying. I can concur these 2 things are connected and correlated. Whenever I post, this is just how I feel at the moment and I might not update if I change my mind mainly because I might not care.

I also cannot believe people are buying into RIDE right now, 100% pure speculation when everything looks so bad. At some point I could have seen the price was worth it, but the money just came coming.

Naturally as soon as I am typing this, a corner turns by the time it's done, not that it matters.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2021 at 6:22:08 PM permalink
I'm not so sure now. Seeing every time BTC had trouble, there were huge down days and I don't remember any exceptions. Perhaps it's simply because cryptos never close you can see it coming, but you never know when things reverse before they do. I'm thinking perhaps the big shots are using the unregulated crypto markets to do things they couldn't do in stocks, but then they still are into the stock market and it's all intertangled.

This site is interesting

https://8marketcap.com/
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onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2021 at 6:48:26 PM permalink
Egads. Just like I said. Loaded up on cheap options today and they're going to blow up.

I wish them luck, hope someone turns it around and they bring some gigantic bags on money.

This stock will tank bad tomorrow and sell like RIDE has the plague. Have 90 $9 puts expiring tomorrow, this should be a huge no brainer. My problem is Etrade says they execute these options at 2pm so I will not get maximum return if so. I'm thinking the stock could close anywhere and erasing the last 3 days to $7 or lower might be possible. I might have to ask them to not execute the options and do it myself right before close. I'd be so afraid some long shot nobody would buy them but there will be buyers.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 20, 2021
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onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2021 at 7:54:03 PM permalink
I'm thinking the stock should drop super heavy pre-market, but what do people think about placing a market order in at the open for put options? I'm thinking any put option will increase today on the stock. Maybe I'm dreaming but $1 price target, that's pretty damned huge. They just got sued for insider trading and postponed earnings from May 17th to May 24th. There are enough buyers of dirty diapers out there. This stock just kept opening up, I couldn't buy more than I did on such a high risk thing just hoping really. Last price in after hours was $9.15 but anything is possible, it could close at $10 tomorrow. I think I'm going to be counting some nice money. Damn I hope I'm not just being delusional right now, those things could be worth $100 or $200 each tomorrow or more.

Might be an ok idea, but not great and certainly not without flaws. The stock could go up tomorrow, I was just being excited and using "forward looking" statements. ;)
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 20, 2021
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vegas
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May 21st, 2021 at 5:49:46 AM permalink
RIDE is down 0.49 cents in pre market trading. It closed Thursday at 9.70.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
onenickelmiracle
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May 21st, 2021 at 7:09:01 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

RIDE is down 0.49 cents in pre market trading. It closed Thursday at 9.70.


I'm completely mesmerized right now. Up like a rocket. Should reverse soon. I'm told clear resistance at 8.80, so that sucks. It was down 20% yesterday and people are buying it like the plant is made of solid gold. I really thought it would drop $1 or $2 today and I'd kill it, Really thought no chance it goes up like this, I bought 10 contracts expiring next week, will see what happens.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 21st, 2021 at 7:20:51 AM permalink
pfft BTC decides to go reverse like 6% for day click just like that, I have no choice but to wait and see what happens.
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onenickelmiracle
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May 21st, 2021 at 7:23:54 AM permalink
Those aliens won't visit us because they fly by and all they can hear is "BUY THE DIP".
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OnceDear
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May 21st, 2021 at 7:24:49 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

pfft BTC decides to go reverse like 6% for day click just like that, I have no choice but to wait and see what happens.

Dammit ONM. Will you please stop driving down the value of my BTC!
I need you to sell your entire holding and aggressively go short. With your luck, that should kick off a bull run. $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 21st, 2021 at 7:33:11 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Dammit ONM. Will you please stop driving down the value of my BTC!
I need you to sell your entire holding and aggressively go short. With your luck, that should kick off a bull run. $:o)

If I was directly in it, it would veer back and recover as soon as I sold. I bought $1. Hope it helps.

They're breaking trend today. SHAMU is selling BTC and buying every stock there is. He probably is using his 500 million to look at my computer to do reverse stock plays. RIDE TO THE MOON!
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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Joined: Jan 26, 2012
May 21st, 2021 at 9:34:27 AM permalink
Zero chance of the RIDE puts printing. Etrade settles them at 2pm and they're worthless now. Doesn't seem like it's going to break. This is so stupid I cannot believe it didn't sell off. All I can guess is buy the dippers or institutions coming in thinking it's worth $10. I cannot believe bit coin broke down today during market hours. Those COIN puts were pretty much sucked dry in no time. Didn't sell when I noticed it crashing because you never know how much BTC will recover and how soon. Time for paper trading, and long term holds.
I am a robot.
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