Nathan's Corner
Quote: Mission146I can't stress this enough: Please everyone take any would be dollars played on, "146," and donate them to any charity that feeds people who are hungry. Thank you.
Cheers
On Friday, instead of not buying a £2 UK lottery ticket for the Saturday draw, I will not buy five £2 Uk Lottery tickets.
I will post 5 sets of numbers (that I won't be buying) at some time before midnight on Friday. I'll also post the results after they are drawn on Saturday.
There's no chance I'd win and I predict that I won't even get one single line with 4 numbers correct.
The £10 that I won't spend on the Lottery will be donated to charity. The government will add £2.50 of tax reclaim. Thank you, HMRC
Thanks Mission for the idea.
In the extremely unlikely event that 1 of my sets of numbers is a big winner,... well it won't happen.
Quote: JohnzimboNathan are you eligible for the 401k at Walgreens? If so, do you participate?
Yes, I have a 401K from my job! :D
Quote: NathanYes, I have a 401K from my job! :D
Want to know what $28 a week turns into in a 401k in 20 years if you put it in a S&P index fund?
Quote: prozemaWant to know what $28 a week turns into in a 401k in 20 years if you put it in a S&P index fund?
Saving $28 a week at 52 weeks for 20 years is over $29,000. :)
Quote: NathanSaving $28 a week at 52 weeks for 20 years is over $29,000. :)
Sort of true.
But if you started with $28 today, $28 each week for 20 years, into your 401k, with a very modest estimate of 4% return, compounded monthly, you would make $45,543.00 !! And Walgreens MATCHES THAT 2 FOR 1, at least as of June 2, 2018 report I read on their benefits, so that's $136,629.00 you could have!
If you're already making the MAXIMUM contribution they allow, ignore this. If you're not, Good Lord, what are you waiting for?
I made maximum contributions after the 1st year I was a fed (I was completely broke when i started there, but i got the maximum match the first year (which was only 1x - you get 2x!), then went to maximum contribution) no matter what else I didn't do instead . And I retired at 50 with a nice big pot of money.
All I got was this stupid shirtQuote: beachbumbabsAnd I retired at 50 with a nice big pot of money.
Quote: prozemaWant to know what $28 a week turns into in a 401k in 20 years if you put it in a S&P index fund?
After taxes and inflation, about tree fifty.
Quote: beachbumbabsSort of true.
But if you started with $28 today, $28 each week for 20 years, into your 401k, with a very modest estimate of 4% return, compounded monthly, you would make $45,543.00 !! And Walgreens MATCHES THAT 2 FOR 1, at least as of June 2, 2018 report I read on their benefits, so that's $136,629.00 you could have!
If you're already making the MAXIMUM contribution they allow, ignore this. If you're not, Good Lord, what are you waiting for?
I made maximum contributions after the 1st year I was a fed (I was completely broke when i started there, but i got the maximum match the first year (which was only 1x - you get 2x!), then went to maximum contribution) no matter what else I didn't do instead . And I retired at 50 with a nice big pot of money.
Thanks for weighing in BBB, but you are being VERY conservative in you compounding estimate.
The nominal return year over year on the S&P is just North of 10% on average since world war 2... About 3% of that is inflation alone... The dividend it kicks off is ~2%... Your $45k number would represent nearly the worst possible outcome over any given 20 year period on record since the ww2.
I'd estimate the future value of $28 a week, coumpounded weekly at a 10% annual rate for 20 years to be in the neighborhood of $92,000 after fees.
On the flip side, playing the lottery will take the investment of $29,000 and turn it into $14 -15k... A loss of approximately half.
So imho, a $28 a week lottery habit really costs $74 a week for someone with 20 years ahead of them.
What I don't understand is how someone gets that much pleasure from the lottery. It's boring as hell.
Now I like to gamble... Sometimes on things I'm not good at. So I get the entertainment factor. I'm still pushing for horse racing as step 1. The bets are the same, at $2 a race you are betting less, the house edge is half as bad, and it's a lot more fun.
Quote: billryanAfter taxes and inflation, about tree fifty.
BR... You know better than that.
Nathan... 401Ks are tax deferred and inflation helps your money grow.
Quote: beachbumbabs...with a very modest estimate of 4% return, compounded monthly, you would make $45,543.00 !!
Quote: prozema...inflation helps your money grow.
There's possibly a bit of a misconception in these comments
If the modest return of 4% is equal to the rate of inflation, then nothing is growing, compound or otherwise except the number behind the $ sign $45,553 would buy the same number of beers or loaves of bread or weeks rent as the $20k that Nathan estimated. We'd just be talking about a dollar that is effectively a different and less valuable currency.
The benefit of compounding kicks in (big time) when the pension fund manages to get an average return that is greater than inflation: A 'real return'.
In my last job, (where I did 6 years ) the company matched contributions up to 3% of my salary. I looked at the possible pension from that and laughed. It would have set me up with about $300 per year, or approximately enough to keep me in beer. Not feed or house me. Like so many minimalist pensions it would not be much use. I pity the guys who worked with me who would work 30 more years and then draw so pathetic a pension. Nathan thinking about a nice big fund of $20k or $45k or even $136k has to realise that that is what she is supposed to live on for the entire last 30 years of her life!!! It won't go far.
Quote: BeachBumBabsAnd Walgreens MATCHES THAT 2 FOR 1.., Good Lord, what are you waiting for?
Yes indeed. It's a free pay-rise.
Quote: beachbumbabsI made maximum contributions after the 1st year I was a fed ...And I retired at 50 with a nice big pot of money.
This might make you laugh... In 4 of my last years working, I contributed 85% of my salary to my pension ( I didn't need the salary ) I built up a pension fund that was greater than what some of my colleagues will build up in a lifetime. Sadly the company didn't match it, but it confused the hell out of the Finance director who apologised for what he thought was a mistake in payroll.
I too retired early. I missed out on making voluntary pension contributions for much of my career, but I did max out the stock options which were even more lucrative.
Short version...... Nathan can have lottery tickets now, or a big pot of money when she most needs it.
that if you won 5 out of 6 base numbers, both times, you would get over $4,820. Just plain $412 is a huge rip off. Let's put this into perspective. 1989 as a Pick 4 at $1 gives you $400. Do you see the rip off here? So, 5 numbers out of 6 in LOTTO only gives you a measly $12 extra bucks than Pick 4? No, just no! No wonder Once Dear was so jaded in the second Lottery.
Quote: Nathanit JUST clicked for me that the second Lottery only paid out $412 for 5 Numbers. Bloody hell! :/
Yes. It's usually about £900 to £1100 but it was a quiet day for lotto. Tickets cost £2
So. paying 500 to 1 on a 144000 to one probability is just evil. Of course, they funnel extra money to other prizes, but as is so often said. Lotto is a tax on the poorly educated and generally a tax on the poor. And it's a voluntary tax. That's what makes it a tax on the stupid.
Your state lotteries are just as bad.
Quote: OnceDearYes. It's usually about £900 to £1100 but it was a quiet day for lotto. Tickets cost £2
So. paying 500 to 1 on a 144000 to one probability is just evil. Of course, they funnel extra money to other prizes, but as is so often said. Lotto is a tax on the poorly educated and generally a tax on the poor. And it's a voluntary tax. That's what makes it a tax on the stupid.
Your state lotteries are just as bad.
On a light-hearted note, 412 was one of my predicted Lottery Numbers. ;) If we do not laugh, we will cry.
Quote: OnceDearNathan thinking about a nice big fund of $20k or $45k or even $136k has to realise that that is what she is supposed to live on for the entire last 30 years of her life!!! It won't go far.
Completely agree with you sir, but every drop someone adds to the bucket helps you fill the thing up.
Bbb's advice is spot on, even allowing for inflation.Quote: beachbumbabs, $28 each week for 20 years, into your 401k, with a very modest estimate of 4% return, compounded monthly, you would make $45,543.00 !! And Walgreens MATCHES THAT 2 FOR 1, at least as of June 2, 2018 report I read on their benefits, so that's $136,629.00 you could have!
If you're already making the MAXIMUM contribution they allow, ignore this. If you're not, Good Lord, what are you waiting for?
Especially with employer contribution, Nathan can have lottery tickets now, or a huge, guaranteed pot of money when she most needs it.
Lottery is a mug's game. Money in a 401k is a no brainer. And the sooner the better.
Quote: OnceDearBbb's advice is spot on, even allowing for inflation.
Especially with employer contribution, Nathan can have lottery tickets now, or a huge, guaranteed pot of money when she most needs it.
Lottery is a mug's game. Money in a 401k is a no brainer. And the sooner the better.
Nathan.
You. Win. Every. Day. You TRIPLE every dollar immediately, then it ALL earns more for you.
There is no AP here who wouldn't kill for that edge.
Quote: beachbumbabsNathan.You. Win. Every. Day. You TRIPLE every dollar immediately, then it ALL earns more for you. There is no AP here who wouldn't kill for that edge.
I guess that's the difference between an AP and a recreational gambler such as Nathan.
An AP is in it for the money, the income; a recreational gambler is in it for the adrenalin rush and the hope of substantial instant gratification.
Quote: beachbumbabsNathan.
You. Win. Every. Day. You TRIPLE every dollar immediately, then it ALL earns more for you.
There is no AP here who wouldn't kill for that edge.
Or at least knock an old lady over to get there.
BBB. people are motivated by big numbers. Using a nominal calculation over an inflation adjusted calculation will draw more flies to the fire.
Nathan. You can be independently wealthy. A Walgreens clerk is in the top half of income earners globally. There is no excuse for ending up poor if you live in the US.
Quote: onenickelmiracleSomeone making $1000/month versus someone that works for fun, big difference. It's futile for someone with poverty level wages to ever think they'll live a good life one day by saving when they never have. This kind of thing requires wages to far surpass basic living expenses.
Completely disagree. I put together a model several years ago taking a 25 year old couple with two kids at the poverty level and I retired them at age 67 with 900,000 in the bank.
Quote: onenickelmiracleSomeone making $1000/month versus someone that works for fun, big difference. It's futile for someone with poverty level wages to ever think they'll live a good life one day by saving when they never have. This kind of thing requires wages to far surpass basic living expenses.
That's completely untrue. Pay yourself FIRST.
That's what that means. Matching money is the best kind of extra salary. You CAN'T let even a dime of it get past you. If the matching stops at a percentage of salary, but you're allowed to put in more, that's where you can justify some discretion.
For example, my 401k (called a TSP) did an automatic 1% even if I gave nothing. Then 1for1 for the next 3% of my base salary. Then 1for2 for the next 2% of my salary, for a total of 5%. That's where it topped out.
But I could put in up to 10% of my base salary, not just 5%, so I did the 5% for the first year, and worked up to 10% by the 3rd year (slight correction from what I said before: I went 7% year 2).
I doubt Nathan is restricted to only $28/wk. Could be more, she hasn't said. She may already be maximizing, she hasn't said.
But I bet if she did maximize with the lotto money, she could still find $5 /wk for 10 .50 plays, and have the best of both. Get her charge picking numbers, and be TRIPLING her money EVERY DAY at the same time.
Every time I hear that, I sit them down and talk with them about creative ways where they can.
Too many people look at a problem and find it way too easy to say they can't.
Quote: prozemaThanks for weighing in BBB, but you are being VERY conservative in you compounding estimate.
The nominal return year over year on the S&P is just North of 10% on average since world war 2... About 3% of that is inflation alone... The dividend it kicks off is ~2%... Your $45k number would represent nearly the worst possible outcome over any given 20 year period on record since the ww2.
I'd estimate the future value of $28 a week, coumpounded weekly at a 10% annual rate for 20 years to be in the neighborhood of $92,000 after fees.
On the flip side, playing the lottery will take the investment of $29,000 and turn it into $14 -15k... A loss of approximately half.
So imho, a $28 a week lottery habit really costs $74 a week for someone with 20 years ahead of them.
What I don't understand is how someone gets that much pleasure from the lottery. It's boring as hell.
Now I like to gamble... Sometimes on things I'm not good at. So I get the entertainment factor. I'm still pushing for horse racing as step 1. The bets are the same, at $2 a race you are betting less, the house edge is half as bad, and it's a lot more fun.
I agree completely, prozema. That's why I said 4% was MODEST, and it is. Mine averaged 9.2% return over the 25 years they managed it. That would make Nathan's money close to $100,000, before they even matched it to make it $300,000.
But as they say, (and you know all this, you obviously have a financial background and I don't ), past performance does not guarantee future profits.
I used 4% because it's the industry standard for annual withdrawals that leave the principal intact. Could easily be more but didn't want to exaggerate or create possibly false expectations.
Quote: beachbumbabsI agree completely, prozema. That's why I said 4% was MODEST, and it is. Mine averaged 9.2% return over the 25 years they managed it. That would make Nathan's money close to $100,000, before they even matched it to make it $300,000.
But as they say, (and you know all this, you obviously have a financial background and I don't ), past performance does not guarantee future profits.
I used 4% because it's the industry standard for annual withdrawals that leave the principal intact. Could easily be more but didn't want to exaggerate or create possibly false expectations.
My old man drove "pay yourself first" into my head starting just out of diapers. Ok, I'm probably exaggerating a bit.
I do want to applaud you for giving Nathan good advice. I know she brings a fair amount of frustration to your life.
Quote: prozemaCompletely agree with you sir, but every drop someone adds to the bucket helps you fill the thing up.
Many people mistakenly believe that you need make life changing adjustments in order to save for retirement. Small changes can make a huge difference., especially early on. Cutting your lottery play just $10 a week , cutting out a single Starbucks a week, using a few coupons for groceries. These can easily let you add $1500-2000 a year to a retirement account.
Saving your spare change can add another couple of hundred a year.
Obviously, raising ones income is the best way to improve your lifestyle and retirement, but cutting out inefficient spending is something you can do today.
Quote: NathanAw man. 47 front pair finally showed up the one drawing I didn't play it. :( I used my .50 to play 146 instead. This is crap! Days of playing 47 Front Pair only for it to come up on the one day I didn't play it. This is why advance plays are key.
You forgot the "DRATS"
That will be £10 that I don't throw away.
Line 1: 1 7 8 10 13 20 Bonus No 21
Line 2: 4 16 17 20 21 22 Bonus No 26
Line 3: 4 8 13 26 30 55 Bonus No 58
Line 4: 2 10 13 14 19 23 Bonus No 25
Line 5:16 17 18 23 26 31 Bonus No 33
I'll also post the results after they are drawn on Saturday.
There's no chance I'd win and I predict that I won't even get one single line with 4 numbers correct.
The £10 that I won't spend on the Lottery will be donated to charity. The government will add £2.50 of tax reclaim. Thank you, HMRC
Thanks Mission for the idea.
In the extremely unlikely event that 1 of my sets of numbers is a big winner,... well it won't happen.
Quote: billryanMany people mistakenly believe that you need make life changing adjustments in order to save for retirement.
My motto is save less and live worse. Live a very unhealthy life and die sooner, you will never need that retirement money.
Quote: DRichMy motto is save less and live worse. Live a very unhealthy life and die sooner, you will never need that retirement money.
Quote: Hunter S. Thompson“Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming, “Wow what a ride!”
Quote: MaxPenYou forgot the "DRATS"
I also failed to make a new Lottery Numbers prediction. ;) I was so mad at myself for not playing 47 front pair Pick 2, I forgoed making a new prediction. Crap is a worse word than Drats, so I went with Crap instead. :) The good news is that 47 was one of my predictions, so if you followed my advice, you won $25. :) Now that I have calmed down, I predict 87 or 42(I saw 42 quite a bit today, ;) will show up soon. :) Maybe an 85. Maybe 49. 146 is a given prediction considering I predicted it would come up within 2 weeks(13 days now). :)
Quote: NathanMy God! If you do a 2 week roll at $1 for each of my 42 numbers I chose in that one particular post you will spend a whopping $588! O.O Do NOT do a two week roll of my 42 numbers unless you can afford to spend $588. ;)
Actually, I miscalculated. The total is actually a whopping $1176, WOW. O.O I calculated by accident .50 each instead of $1.
Quote: prozemaCompletely disagree. I put together a model several years ago taking a 25 year old couple with two kids at the poverty level and I retired them at age 67 with 900,000 in the bank.
Too bad that 900k will only buy them a loaf of bread ;)
Quote: OnceDear
That Hunter Thompson quote is among my all time favorites.
Quote: RogerKintToo bad that 900k will only buy them a loaf of bread ;)
Maybe, I just have my people buy my bread and I refuse to sweat the details. ;-)
Quote: SOOPOO5678, so close to 6789,
Followed by 10, jack, queen, king.
Quote: SOOPOOThe person behind the keyboard that is Nathan totally ignores good advice from Prozema and BBB and blathers on about 'front pair 12, back pair 34. Pick 4 5678, so close to 6789, would have should have might have won $7, will advance play, weekly monthly yearly hourly 9876 unless 5432 maybe 1234..... Those that ENABLE this type of gibberish do no one any favors.
Soopoo, my employer automatically deducts money from every paycheck and puts it in my 401K and I also have a Walgreen's Stock Plan which money is also automatically deducted from my paycheck. So I have a 401k and a Stock Plan so I have two types of savings.
Quote: OnceDearLottery is a mug's game. Money in a 401k is a no brainer. And the sooner the better.
You're absolutely right.
