Decision 2012
Quote: RonC.the Libya thing is going to be a huge deal, I think) if Obama wins.
Some more speculation:
Quote:Petraeus, the reputed savior of Iraq, is a hero to many of the same conservatives who have been driving the Benghazi story in an effort to burn the president. Now it seems possible that their ire could burn the general more than the president. Although Friday’s reports indicate that the CIA responded fast and aggressively as the attack unfolded, it also appears that the agency could have been more vigilant about security at the site in advance. It also seems possible that Mitt Romney fell silent on this issue because he came to understand that Petraeus is at least as politically exposed as Obama. (Bear in mind that Romney was recently granted classified national security briefings, as is the custom for major-party nominees.)
here
Quote: ThatDonGuy
18. There is no such song as "Pomp & Circumstance." We don't care what the credits of Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted say. It is called "Land of Hope and Glory" (or, if the whole thing is played, "Pomp & Circumstance March #1", as there are five of the things), and on top of that, it has lyrics.
We sang it as:
My reindeer flies sideways
Your reindeer flies up-side-down
My reindeer flies side-ways
Your reindeer is dead
Quote: SOOPOOUsing facts to argue with Bob is not fair! He would never resort to such a tactic!
In 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland Obama
attracted 80,000 people. Today, at his last 2012
stop in Cleveland, Obama could only attract 4,000.
Don't the facts suck?
Quote: EvenBobIn 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland Obama
attracted 80,000 people. Today, at his last 2012
stop in Cleveland, Obama could only attract 4,000.
Don't the facts suck?
You try to fit 80,000 people into a high school. The 2008 crowds were spread out over a large outdoor space, and were larger than the crowd in the football stadium that day. Many Ohio dems have already voted anyway. The only crowds that count are the ones at the polling stations.
I asked my son if he could believe that 1/4 of all burglaries occurred in the summer, and he had to consider about whether or not the fact people left on vacations balanced out the fact that kids were home during the day. Then I pointed out that 1/4 of the YEAR also occurred in the summer, and he got the point: think.
Quote: EvenBobDon't the facts suck?
"Facts are stupid things" - Ronald Reagan
Quote: EvenBobIn 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland Obama
attracted 80,000 people. Today, at his last 2012
stop in Cleveland, Obama could only attract 4,000.
Don't the facts suck?
I hear that Obama's fundraising dinner with George Clooney only drew 20 people, and that had both Obama and Clooney. Oh, boy. 20 people. Obama sure must be in trouble. I bet he only wins with 20 electoral college votes to spare this time.
Quote: FarFromVegasYou try to fit 80,000 people into a high school. The 2008 crowds were spread out over a large outdoor space,
LOL, keep on tap dancing and waving your
arms real fast, its almost working.
Why do you think it was in a HS and not
a stadium? Obama can't fill stadiums
anymore, can he. Romney can though,
and does. Sucks, huh.
Quote: EvenBobLOL, keep on tap dancing and waving your
arms real fast, its almost working.
Why do you think it was in a HS and not
a stadium? Obama can't fill stadiums
anymore, can he. Romney can though,
and does. Sucks, huh.
He filled the Delta Center in Milwaukee today. SRO.
But I bet most came to see Katy Perry.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470
Quote: EvenBobUh Oh:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470
Okay--you might be the only person on Earth to read the Examiner! Congratulations. There's a reason it's free.
Quote: FarFromVegasOkay--you might be the only person on Earth to read the Examiner!
Michael Barone is 68 and has been in politics
a long time and has a good track record of
predicting winners. I'm sure Nate Silver,
with all his experience since what was it,
2008, has a better chance though. You
can't trust those old guys with the cred,
what the heck do they know...
Quote: EvenBobMichael Barone is 68 and has been in politics
a long time and has a good track record of
predicting winners. I'm sure Nate Silver,
with all his experience since what was it,
2008, has a better chance though. You
can't trust those old guys with the cred,
what the heck do they know...
If he was old and fat, would you still trust him?
Oscar
Quote: oscar33If he was old and fat, would you still trust him?
Oscar
I'm blocking you Oscar, all your posts in this
thread are directed at me and none of them
are worthy of a reply. Buh bye...
Quote: EvenBobI'm blocking you Oscar, all your posts in this
thread are directed at me and none of them
are worthy of a reply. Buh bye...
LMFAO
Quote: s2dbakerI predict that Obama will win 319 to 219. The early test will be Florida. If Florida is too close to call then the Election goes to Obama easily because it will be an early indication that Nate Silver is right. Nate's simulations show that the most likely outcome will be a 331 EV win for Obama but I'm giving Florida to Romney because .. Freedom.
My map looks exactly the same, but with FL and VA reversed. 303-235.
Quote: rdw4potusMy map looks exactly the same, but with FL and VA reversed. 303-235.
Virginia has the Virgil Goode factor. No clue if he'll have any effect at all, but if he does it will be in siphoning off Romney votes.
Quote: s2dbakerI predict that Obama will win 319 to 219. The early test will be Florida.
Tampa Bay Times has Romney 51 Obama 45, its a real
nail biter.. Yawn..
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article1259531.ece
ago, saying Obama can't win there. But what do
they know..
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/261189-pollster-pulls-out-of-fla-nc-and-va-says-obama-cant-win
Quote: FarFromVegasVirginia has the Virgil Goode factor. No clue if he'll have any effect at all, but if he does it will be in siphoning off Romney votes.
Yeah, I think between Goode pulling Romney votes and Kaine (and/or not-Allen) helping draw people to the polls, VA will probably go blue.
Quote: EvenBobTampa Bay Times has Romney 51 Obama 45, its a real
nail biter.. Yawn..
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article1259531.ece
Mason-Dixon is a good pollster, too. Too bad this breaks your only-listening-to-rasmussen rule.
Quote: rdw4potusMason-Dixon is a good pollster, too. Too bad this breaks your only-listening-to-rasmussen rule.
Rasmussen has FL at 50-48 Romney, but its a week old.
The other one is recent or I would have used Rasmussen.
Quote: EvenBobSuffolk Univ pulled their polling out of Fl 3 weeks
ago, saying Obama can't win there. But what do
they know..
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/261189-pollster-pulls-out-of-fla-nc-and-va-says-obama-cant-win
NC will almost certainly go Romney. The NBC poll out of FL has Obama up by 2% while the newspapers have a 6% Romney lead. Obama has the edge in early voting so that state is indecipherable to me. It will depend on turnout in the southern part of the state. VA is a schizo state. Can't figure out my own state!
3 weeks ago was a long time ago to give up. Then again, I had to look to see what Suffolk University was. Dan Harrington went there!
Quote: FarFromVegas
I had to look to see what Suffolk University was.
Suffolk Univ Political Research Center is an extremely
well respected polling organization that has a 96%
accuracy record. If they pulled out of FL, NC and VA
3 weeks ago saying Obama has no chance of winning
there, you can pretty much bank on it.
Quote: EvenBobSuffolk Univ Political Research Center is an extremely
well respected polling organization that has a 96%
accuracy record. If they pulled out of FL, NC and VA
3 weeks ago saying Obama has no chance of winning
there, you can pretty much bank on it.
Glad you finally figured out that Rasmussen isn't the only good pollster.
Quote: rdw4potusGlad you finally figured out that Rasmussen isn't the only good pollster.
It was big news when Suffolk pulled out on
Oct 10th. They're good but not as good as
Rasmussen.
Let's see how accurate Rasmussen was in 2008.Quote: EvenBobRasmussen has FL at 50-48 Romney, but its a week old.
The other one is recent or I would have used Rasmussen.
| Rasmussen | Actual | Difference | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | |
| Florida | 49% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 4% |
| Ohio | 49% | 49% | 51% | 47% | 4% |
| N.Carolina | 49% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 1% |
| Virginia | 51% | 47% | 53% | 46% | 3% |
| Missouri | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 0% |
| Colorado | 51% | 47% | 54% | 45% | 5% |
Quote: s2dbakerLet's see how accurate Rasmussen was in 2008.
Rasmussen nailed Missouri but in all other cases leaned red and by a lot. Here's Rachel Maddow and Nate Silver talking about the polling.
Rasmussen Actual Difference State Obama McCain Obama McCain Florida 49% 50% 51% 48% 4% Ohio 49% 49% 51% 47% 4% N.Carolina 49% 50% 50% 50% 1% Virginia 51% 47% 53% 46% 3% Missouri 49% 49% 49% 49% 0% Colorado 51% 47% 54% 45% 5%
1% in NC is a lot to you?
Rasmussen is a solid average pollster. They're not bad, they're just not very good either. 2008 was a hard polling year and Rasmussen was pretty much on the median error level. 2010 was harder, and they did worse - they were the worst national pollster in 2010. 2004 and 2006 were easier, and Rasmussen pretty much utterly nailed them.
Not at all, but half the polling mentioned in the Fox News clip failed to be within Rasmussen's own margin of error of 3% in favor of the red side. This is Rasmussen's pattern. Rasmussen is biased. Not one of Rasmussen's polls erred on the blue side. That's not a coincidence, that's a fault.Quote: rdw4potus1% in NC is a lot to you?
Quote: s2dbakerNot at all, but half the polling mentioned in the Fox News clip failed to be within Rasmussen's own margin of error of 3% in favor of the red side. This is Rasmussen's pattern. Rasmussen is biased. Not one of Rasmussen's polls erred on the blue side. That's not a coincidence, that's a fault.
Those are all within the MoE. The 3% applies to the percentage for each candidate.
Point taken, now explain away the red side bias.Quote: rdw4potusThose are all within the MoE. The 3% applies to the percentage for each candidate.
Quote: Mission146I think that both sides are reading a little too much into these ad buys.
The fact is that a Pennsylvania ad buy is essentially the same thing as an Eastern Ohio ad buy and a Northern W.Va. ad buy, the N.W.Va being circumstantial, and that is if a good part of the ad buy is in Pittsburgh. It's a shared TV Market, so you're not really making that buy strictly to appeal to Pa., it's very well probably just another push in hotly contested Ohio coal country. On the other side of PA and in the South, maybe it hits some parts of Virginia.
Reading too much into things is what keeps people in business.
Appalachian Ohio is divided into four regions. The total of the region is 16.95% of the population of Ohio.
I think your observation is very astute. There are roughly 2 million people in what is thought of as the 32 counties of Appalachian Ohio. Many do not have cable television, and rely on satellite TV. Over the air broadcast is difficult in the mountains.
Your CBS affiliates in Ohio are not in Appalachia.
Cincinnati - WKRC-TV 12
Cleveland - WOIO 19
Columbus - WBNS-TV 10
Dayton - WHIO-TV 7
Lima - WLMO-LP 38
Toledo - WTOL-TV 11
Youngstown - WKBN-TV 27
A TV add on a Youngstown station that Obama is anti-coal and Ohio citizens should vote for Romney is non-news. Everyone knows that the parties are campaigning vigorously in this critical state. The message may not register very strongly even among the faithful.
But every media outlet in the country reported that Romney was making a last week media buy in Pennsylvania with his "Obama is anti-coal" campaign. If your goal is to get the "anti-coal" message firmly in the minds of the undecided all over the country (including the 2 million people in Appalachian Ohio), the your goal is accomplished.
Quote: s2dbakerPoint taken, now explain away the red side bias.
from a very technical standpoint, there is no bias if they're within the MoE:-)
Quote: rdw4potusMason-Dixon is a good pollster, too. Too bad this breaks your only-listening-to-rasmussen rule.
He has to break it. Rasmussen has stopped living in the reality where it's a Romney lock.
If every state breaks as they expect it to, Romney wins 285-253 (still taking bets on that 320, Keyser?). Every state but Ohio, the tightest race they (and just about no one else) expect to go to Romney, Obama wins 271-267. Meanwhile, reality's nice five-point Florida margin has gone down to two in Rasmussen fantasyland.
Quote: s2dbakerDick Morris blames Hurricane Sandy and Chris Christie for Mitt Romney's impending loss. Apparently Christie just torpedoed Romney's path to victory so that he can run in 2016. or something..
LOL. Sounds about right. Along this same line, in the part of the Maddow clip before the discussion with Silver, she pointed out a story from a couple days ago. Republican operatives have begun speculating about what Paul Ryan might do after the election, since he won't be the VP...
Quote: s2dbakerRachel Maddow and Nate Silver talking about the polling.
Nate Silver and Rachel Maddow
Quote: s2dbakerDick Morris blames Hurricane Sandy and Chris Christie for Mitt Romney's impending loss. .
Yeah, um, from the same article, last sentence:
"..resuming (Obama) his crash into a single term presidency."
You really need to read the whole thing, dude. It
will save you from looking irrelevent.
Thanks for the compliment! I will say that the CBS Wheeling, WV (WTRF Channel 7) covers some of Appalachia, but certainly not all of it, as you pointed out. They basically cover a good portion of Eastern Ohio, though. I'll tell you where they've really been is the radio, get the people that may be at work, on the way to work (possibly in the mines), taking the kids to school, or who may not watch much TV. They've really been hitting the radio hard, from both sides, smart move!
Quote: Mission146PacoMartin,Thanks for the compliment!
Well your argument was very clear. If you think about it, the ideologically minded people mostly made up their mind a long time ago (many before Romney even became the candidate). In Ohio, after this market saturation in one of the two most critical of states, they have made a decision.
What's left, is the guy who may like Obama and his family, but just feels that he is not making the best decisions for the country. The coal issue is a big one. While no one likes coal, they feel that nothing is going to run the electric plants as cheaply. Ultimately, that will keep the Prius's running. By rattling the idea that Obama is anti-coal, then he is going to cut off the lifeblood of these regions. For Appalachian Ohio it was 445,713 for Obama in 2008, and 453,111 for McCain.
In 2008 Obama won Cuyahoga county (i.e. Cleveland) by 206,830 votes, and McCain won the rest of the state by 38,637 votes. So Romney has to find a few thousand votes here and there in the rural counties to offset Cleveland.
him to get revenge.
What does this mean, revenge against who?
Revenge against what? What the heck is he
talking about?
Does he mean if we elect him again, he's out
for revenge? He must mean that, its the only
thing that makes sense. Revenge for slavery?
Revenge against capitalism? Revenge against
the US?
Hmm, I don't think this is going to play very
well.
Muhahahahaha!!!!!
Quote: s2dbakerNo Bob, you have it all wrong. It's revenge against whitey!
I think he has class warfare in mind. He wants the
have not's to think he's going to get revenge
on the have's if he's elected. Redistribution,
make everybody equally miserable, like what
will happen if Obamacare is put into full
effect.
Quote: s2dbakerNo Bob, you have it all wrong. It's revenge against whitey! Move to another country now before we show up with our Obama Phones and Cadillacs that we buy with our welfare checks and and steal your collection of rare gold coins that you bought from Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck's advertiser. Flee!! Flee!!
Muhahahahaha!!!!!
Not sure why EB wants Romney to win anyway. Losing his nearly full time job of complainin' about Obama is going to leave EB destitute.
Guess that was too literate for some people.
...right, stupid question.
That is where a difference can be made.
Quote: 24Bingo"Revenge against who"? Revenge against Romney, to a crowd that was booing him.
Revenge against Romney for what? He's not president,
you make no sense.
Quote: BozBob, I am with you, but I hope you spent a third as much time you did on here trying to change 10 peoples minds.
Good grief, I could care less if they change
their minds, why would I. Have you ever
changed anybodies mind about anything?
Its impossible.
Quote: EvenBobRevenge against Romney for what? He's not president,
you make no sense.
They were booing him, weren't they?
