Decision 2012
Quote: KeyserKewlj,
So far, I haven't found anyone (including you) that can answer the question below.
Why do you feel that Obama is good for this economy and country?
I never said Obama was good for the economy or the country. That's not what I am basing my decision on.
Quote: kewljDid you even read what I said, Bob?
You said it was Bush's fault and Obama just needs
more time, maybe 3 more terms. Did I misss something?
Quote: KeyserGOod GRieF!
What? YOU are going to decide what I should base my vote on? Anyone can vote for any reason they choose, sir. In my case, I have said a number of times that I don't especially think Obama has done a great job. But I am given 2 choices and a don't like the things Romney has talked about and don't like his multiple plans on things. So given the two choices I back the President.
Quote: EvenBobYou said it was Bush's fault and Obama just needs
more time, maybe 3 more terms. Did I misss something?
I am done with you sir. You make no sense to me, right down to Oliver Hardy comments. Your objective is to just be nasty and obstructive and disagreeable. You should be a US republican Senator.
It's 2pm Vegas time and I was supposed to meet my playing partner 2 hours ago, before I allowed myself to get preoccupied. I really will be glad when this damn election is over. lol
Quote: kewlj
I am done with you sir. You make no sense to me,l
Its because I'm making fun of you,
don't you see that? You have no good
reason to vote for Obama and yet you
think you do. It makes no sense.
Quote: EvenBobIts because I'm making fun of you,
don't you see that? You have no good
reason to vote for Obama and yet you
think you do. It makes no sense.
Just like many are voting for Romney because he is not Obama, there are many who are voting for Obama because he is not Romney. It works both ways. We're stuck with the candidates we have and there's no point in wishing for the ideal man to come along. It ain't gonna happen.
Quote: kewlj
Pure fantasy.
Hmmm...very little change needed here:
Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Maybe a landslide
No escape from reality
Open your eyes
Look up to the skies and see
I'm just a pollster, I need no sympathy
Because I'm "easy come, easy go"
Little high, little low
Any way the vote goes, doesn't really matter to me, to me
Seriously, though. I called it a 1/100 longshot. You think those odds aren't long enough? Romney only needs one of the two states.
Quote: EvenBobIts because I'm making fun of you,
don't you see that? You have no good
reason to vote for Obama and yet you
think you do. It makes no sense.
C'mon, even Chuck Norris is screaming and plugging his ears by now. You go on so...
Undecided Voters
Some people are saying that the undecided voters, such as Darell and his brother Darell, pictured above, could be what determines the winner of the next presidential election.
Quote: Keyser
Obama voters in W Virginia? No wonder Romney
is ahead there.
Quote: Keyser
Some people are saying that the undecided voters, such as Darell and his brother Darell, pictured above, could be what determines the winner of the next presidential election.
Hi, I'm Larry...
various radio talk shows, at least three times I've
heard college professors call in and say the level
of excitement over this election is almost zero,
compared to 2008, among their students.
There are no rallys, nobody is even talking about
it. No get out the vote push, no signs around
the campuses. Most of the students who voted
for Obama in college have graduated. So this
is a group of kids who have had the full brunt of
Obama's term. No jobs for graduates, tuition has
skyrocketed as much as 40% in some states, their
parents homes have dropped in value, their own
prospects for the future looking grim.
Whats there to get excited about.
Quote: BozWhile I am with you Bob, you cannot change other people's opinion..
I don't get your point. Have you been trying
to change opinions and got shot down? Never
try and wise people up, it just pisses them off.
Quote: WizardWow, here are the current Pinnacle lines:
Obama: -310
Romney: +273
That is a change on Obama from about -200 pre-Sandy.
Similar on InTrade, but not down to the pre 1st Debate levels. Romney 35% (+185) Obama 65% (-185).....it was Romeny 21% Obama 79% before the 1st Debate.
I think there is easy money to be made on the Elec. Coll. on the Romney Side.
If Romney gets FL, NC & VA.....he is at 248.....add CO and he is at 257. Lines for EC Votes are as follows:
Romney 230 or more: -300
Romney 240 or more: -163
Romney 250 or more: Even
Quote: ParadigmSimilar on InTrade, but not down to the pre 1st Debate levels. Romney 35% (+185) Obama 65% (-185).....it was Romeny 21% Obama 79% before the 1st Debate.
I think there is easy money to be made on the Elec. Coll. on the Romney Side.
If Romney gets FL, NC & VA.....he is at 248.....add CO and he is at 257. Lines for EC Votes are as follows:
Romney 230 or more: -300
Romney 240 or more: -163
Romney 250 or more: Even
IA + NH would add 10 more, what's the line on Romney 260 or more?
Turns out that undecideds don't always break toward the challenger. Golly gosh, what will Bob say now?
Quote: rdw4potus
Turns out that undecideds don't always break toward the challenger.
LOL! The Huff and Puff! You can't use the RCP average, it
includes every douchbag flybynight crackpot poll it can
find in its average. You have to use single polls that have
a track record for accuracy. Somebody should tell Rove/
Morris/Trippi/Caddell that this rule no longer applies. Guys
who do this for a living on both sides of the fence. Is there
any length you won't go to prove a point? Huff and Puff?
Really? You might as well quote Nate Silver..
Quote: EvenBobLOL! The Huff and Puff! You can't use the RCP average, it
includes every douchbag flybynight crackpot poll it can
find in its average. You have to use single polls that have
a track record for accuracy. Somebody should tell Rove/
Morris/Trippi/Caddell that this rule no longer applies. Guys
who do this for a living on both sides of the fence. Is there
any length you won't go to prove a point? Huff and Puff?
Really? You might as well quote Nate Silver..
Why not quote Blumenthal and Silver? They're actual polling experts, unlike Morris/Trippi/Caddell/Rove. and, no, the RCP average does not contain every fly by night crackpot poll published. RCP has standards for inclusion. Your premise is flawed, which is probably why you're reaching the wrong conclusions.
Quote: rdw4potushttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/2012-polls-incumbent-rule_n_2061595.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster
Turns out that undecideds don't always break toward the challenger. Golly gosh, what will Bob say now?
He'll say "Huffington Post. What do you expect!" lol
I said something similar a few weeks ago. The old rule of thumb that the late vote breaks against the incumbent is outdated and based on different elections models of a different time and era. Back then, you had an incumbent and a challenger. People knew the incumbent and if they hadn't made up their mind before the last few days, they most likely were not going to support him. Their choice was did they want to give the unknown challenger a shot or just not vote.
But it's a different world today. 24/7 news cycles, internet, presidential election seasons that begin several years out. Unlimited money can be spent. The challenger, Mr Romney participated in 20 debates between the primaries and general election. So the challenger is no longer an unknown quantity. By the time the election rolls around he is just as well know as the President. So if people are still undecided, that means they really don't want to vote for the challenger, in this case Mr Romney, just as much as they don't want to vote for the president. So the whole equation has changed. It's no longer a choice between an incumbent that they don't like and an unknown. It is a choice between and incumbent that they don't like and a challenger that they don't like. So some won't vote. Some will hold their nose and vote for the President and some will hold their nose and vote for the challenger. But the breakdown of that remaining undecided sliver will be more evenly divided. The traditional wisdom no longer applies.
Quote: rdw4potusRCP has standards for inclusion.
So do whores and pimps, whats your point.
Hmmm, Morris/Trippi/Caddell/Rove or Huff & Puff,
who to trust. Who to trust..
Just kidding. If Huff & Puff said it was raining in San
Jose, I'd want a second opinion..
Quote: rdw4potusWhy not quote Blumenthal and Silver? They're actual polling experts,
Nate Silver is 34. Morris/Trippi/Caddell/Rove are in their
late 50's and early 60's. Been doing what they do for
decades. Silver started in 2007 and his first election
was 2008.
Expert? Are you joking? One presidential election and
you're an expert? I'm speechless.
Quote: Buzzard" I'm speechless. " like that will ever happen LOL
I am. Caddell worked for Carter, Morris for Clinton
in 92. Trippi worked for Teddy Kennedy's campaign
in the last 70's. Rove worked in Nixon's 1972 campaign.
They've all been active for decades.
Yet some snot nosed 34 yr old who never worked on any
campaign is the 'expert'. Unbeliveable anybody even listens
to him. Scary.
-Keyser
Quote: EvenBobI am. Caddell worked for Carter, Morris for Clinton
in 92. Trippi worked for Teddy Kennedy's campaign
in the last 70's. Rove worked in Nixon's 1972 campaign.
They've all been active for decades.
Yet some snot nosed 34 yr old who never worked on any
campaign is the 'expert'. Unbeliveable anybody even listens
to him. Scary.
Please elaborate to why he is snot nosed.
Oscar
Quote: KeyserHere's what everyone is missing. The polls are accurate until they are weighted. The big flaw this year is the fact that many polls are assuming that the dem turnout will be the same as 2008. This where the grave error exists. According to early voting results, the dems simply aren't turning out like they did back in 2008. The republicans, however, are turning out in much stronger numbers. In short, you need to add approximately five points, maybe more, to most of the presidential polls.
-Keyser
You can feel it in the energy levels. Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, but it adds up. In 2008 you could feel the energy for Obama. Sure he got a ton of media push starting in the primaries, but his crowds had the energy. At this point his supporters have run out of energy. It is almost like a professional wrestling promotion giving push to a personality that is just not getting over with the fans. People still come and cheer, but just because they are there.
Quote: oscar33Please elaborate to why he is snot nosed.
Oscar
Snot nosed:
1) A person that lacks experience or is ignorant of any real world knowledge.
2) An insult, typically used to imply that a person is young and arrogant.
Quote: EvenBobSnot nosed:
1) A person that lacks experience or is ignorant of any real world knowledge.
2) An insult, typically used to imply that a person is young and arrogant.
I am beginning to think you just purposely troll. (And you are damn good at it.) You can't be a real person. You just can't.
Oscar
Quote: oscar33I am beginning to think you just purposely troll.
Everyone you don't like isn't a troll. There
are actually people who think differently
than you do.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou can feel it in the energy levels. Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, but it adds up. In 2008 you could feel the energy for Obama. .
This is what cracks me up about Nate Silver. He
called accurately the easiest election to call in
the last 30 years and people call him an expert.
I bring up the Colorado prof's who have used
their model to correctly predict every presidential
election since 1980, and I'm told, 1980? Thats it?
Big deal, thats just a lucky streak.
Yet Nate Silver calls ONE election right, and he's
a Lib god. You can't make this stuff up, folks.
If Obama wins Tuesday, will Nate be more credible?
Oscar
Quote: oscar33Bob,
If Obama wins Tuesday, will Nate be more credible?
You're living in fantasyland.
Oscar
Quote: oscar33You are supporting my hypothesis.
Oscar
If you like herding cats, you'll enjoy arguing with Evenbob.
Oscar
What amazes me is hthe certitude that both sides are spouting, and this board is just a microcosm. There will be a LOT of crow being served next Wednesday.
Quote: SOOPOO
What amazes me is hthe certitude that both sides are spouting, and this board is just a microcosm. There will be a LOT of crow being served next Wednesday.
Actually it will be fun to watch the MSNBC people crying, blaming racism and turning on their hero Obama. Now THAT is good TV.
Quote: SOOPOOThis whole election is fascinating. It seems like there are well read, well informed, thoughtful people, who with the same polling results available to them, come up with diametrically opposed conclusions. Each side seems to make sense if you don't listen to the other side's rebuttal. My vote sort of doesn't count (I live in New York), and neither do my local friends, but I can only tell you that I have many friends who voted for Obama in 08 that will be voting for Romney in 12, and I know of not a soul who voted for McCain that will now be voting for Obama. That being said, I still think that the Democrat 'core', --- gays, unions, unemployed, pro abortion, disabled, African Americans, Latinos--- so outnumbers the Republican 'core' in the crucial swing states that Obama will win the electoral college, and thus a second term. I hope I am wrong.
What amazes me is hthe certitude that both sides are spouting, and this board is just a microcosm. There will be a LOT of crow being served next Wednesday.
I just don't see how any one is so certain of the outcome in this election. Most polls are within the margin of error either way; they certainly don't indicate anyone having it wrapped up. Yes, the electoral college looks to lean Obama and the popular vote towards Romney but it won't take much of a swing either way to change the way those appear today.
What will people do when it isn't a poll any more and they close that curtain behind them?
I realize it looks like Obama has an easier path in the electoral college.
I hope that the final swing goes Romney's way. I see total gridlock and scandal (the Libya thing is going to be a huge deal, I think) if Obama wins.
Quote: BozActually it will be fun to watch the MSNBC people crying, blaming racism and turning on their hero Obama. Now THAT is good TV.
I was actually wondering just who the Repubs would blame this loss on. Initially I thought it would be Romney himself. Bad candidate and bad campaign. After the events of earlier this week, I kind of figured it would be Chris Christie. Those thoughts were more or less confirmed early yesterday when Rush Limbaugh went after Christie, calling him a homo, in love with Obama. lol
Quote: WizardObama -334 on Pinnacle. The fat lady is clearing her throat.
Interesting..... but don't you frequently bet the underdog on the money line as a 'good value'? So Romney wins, say, 1 in 4.5 times, or around as often as you roll a 7 or 11 on the comeout roll? You've never seen a 7 or 11 on the comeout roll? Would you be stunned to see that dice winner? Would you be stunned to see Romney win? I'd be surprised if he wins (pleasantly!), but not stunned.
Quote: SOOPOOInteresting..... but don't you frequently bet the underdog on the money line as a 'good value'?
Yes, I'm usually an underdog bettor. However, with non-sports, like the Academy Awards, I'll lay the favorite. For example the last election you had to lay 8 to 1 on Obama towards the end, which was as close to a lock as it gets. Easy 12.5% on your money.
I think that laying 334 is a good bet. Obama is up 3 to 5 points in Ohio, and has a reasonable chance to win Florida and/or Virginia now. If you want to bet on Romney I'll split the Pinnacle price with you. It is currently -359 Obama, +313 Romney. I'll give you +336 on Romney.
SO COME ON BOB- MIKE WILL LET YOU BET $100 AGAINST HIS $336!!!!!!! Since you have posted scores of times about how Obama is going to lose....
PUT UP OR SHUT UP!!!!!!!!
No more crap about 'undecideds', or skewed polls, or 'no reason to vote for Obama', or whatever..... BACK IT UP!
This isn't a HB challenge type bet--- It will easily be resolved, and you know you can trust Mike to get you your $336.....
So prove you are not a blowhard....
Quote: SOOPOOI believe as you do, that Obama will win. I believe there is one forum member, perhaps his name is EvenBob, that thinks Obama has no chance. He has made a bunch of excuses as to why he wont make an internet bet, but I think your standing as the Wiz might change his tune.
SO COME ON BOB- MIKE WILL LET YOU BET $100 AGAINST HIS $336!!!!!!! Since you have posted scores of times about how Obama is going to lose....
PUT UP OR SHUT UP!!!!!!!!
No more crap about 'undecideds', or skewed polls, or 'no reason to vote for Obama', or whatever..... BACK IT UP!
This isn't a HB challenge type bet--- It will easily be resolved, and you know you can trust Mike to get you your $336.....
So prove you are not a blowhard....
I'd take a bet like that!
Quote: SOOPOO
So prove you are not a blowhard....
I thought conventional wisdom holds that you can't prove a negative...
Quote: FarFromVegasI thought conventional wisdom holds that you can't prove a negative...
I beg to differ. I can definitely prove that i am not rich !
Quote: BuzzardI beg to differ. I can definitely prove that i am not rich !
I bet my daughter would think you're rich! She enjoys the dollar a week I put in her lunchbox so she can buy things at the School Store every Thursday. It's a fortune to a 7 year old!
Quote: BuzzardI beg to differ. I can definitely prove that i am not rich !
Given that you are probably better off than the 6 billion people below you worldwide you probably are.
