Decision 2012
Regarding wager: Yes, I've been on Intrade. They are offering me better odds than you. :)
Quote: KeyserIt's part of an audio clip on Rasmussen.
Regarding wager: Yes, I've been on Intrade. They are offering me better odds than you. :)
What's the intrade line on Ohio? do they have state-level markets?
Quote: KeyserIt's part of an audio clip on Rasmussen.
Regarding wager: Yes, I've been on Intrade. They are offering me better odds than you. :)
I'll have to look for the clip. If Scott's really backing early voters out of polling results that do not include early voters by definition, that'd be another thing that Rasmussen just patently does wrong.
Quote: rdw4potusWhat's the intrade line on Ohio? do they have state-level markets?
predictwise has the president at 72% to win Ohio.
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentstates
Quote: KeyserI should probably clear things up for you regarding Ohio.
Roughly 30% of the people have already voted in Ohio. The early voting has Obama up roughly by ten points 53% to 43%
I don't know anything about the unquoted part of your post, but I was aware that Rasmussen has Obama up in early voting 53-43. With all due respect, I didn't need anything, "Cleared up for me," because the polling has absolutely nothing to do with what I was talking about Hannity citing.
Hannity was referring to the percentage of ballots that have been turned in from a party identification standpoint, and I was pointing out that Ohio defines your party for you for that year based on the Ticket you request in the Primary. I wasn't making any statement relevant to the actual polling, and thus, the actual polling is not relevant to any statement I was making.
I'm afraid that I am not personally inclined to make any bets on Ohio. However, I wish you would have taken the 2:1 I laid for you a couple weeks back on Romney getting to 320 Electoral Votes!
Quote: rdw4potusWhat's the intrade line on Ohio? do they have state-level markets?
They have a market for all 50 states. Here is the probability of Obama winning in the battleground states:
Ohio 66.5%
Florida 30.0%
NC: 23.9%
Virginia: 49.2%
PA: 87.0%
NH: 60.9%
Colorado: 50.5%
Nevada 82.0%
Iowa: 62.0%
Quote: rdw4potusI just saw what has to be the stupidest political advertisement ever produced. I suppose it's effective, and it's well produced, it's just also incredibly idiotic. The basic premise is that the Chinese in 2030 are looking back at how the US fell from grace in 2012 by relying too much on government. Never mind that China is a communist state, where the government has a hand in everything.
Some political things do not make sense. Witness Joe Biden saying the party that ended slavery "wants to put you back in chains." China is the enemy of today, the third "big enemy" in my lifetime. By 2020 there may be another.
"Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among
voters who say they have already cast their ballots.
However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46%
lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28
tracking polling.'
In 2008, 12 percent more self-described Democrats voted than Republicans (54-42). In 2004, the electorate was 48-48 evenly split between the parties. In Gallup’s poll, they found that in 2012 it will be 46-49 for the Republicans — a fifteen point swing from 2008!
The reason most other polls are wrong is that, seeing this Republican surge, they discount it as sampling error in their polls and re-weight the data to make it conform to the traditional partisan divisions, thus obliterating the real trend and obscuring what is actually going on.
The fact is that the country has moved sharply in the direction of the Republican Party since 2008 and even since 2010.
Want to know how much Romney will win by?
Obama won by 7 points in 2008. But the electorate has become 15 points more Republican since then. Do the math — an 8 point Romney victory! OK, maybe 5 or 6 or 7, but no cliffhanger." Source Dickmorris.com and Gallup
In short, my predictions (before the first debate took place) will likely come true. Romney will likely win with 320 electoral votes.
Now I think it's time to go and exploit the hell out of intrade.com
-Keyser
Quote: Keyser
Romney will likely win with 320 electoral votes.
2:1, my $50 to win your $25, if you're playin', I'm layin'!!!
You say that he is, "Likely," to hit 320 electoral votes, if that's the case, you'd be crazy not to take 2:1.
Quote: Keyser
In 2008, 12 percent more self-described Democrats voted than Republicans (54-42). In 2004, the electorate was 48-48 evenly split between the parties. In Gallup’s poll, they found that in 2012 it will be 46-49 for the Republicans — a fifteen point swing from 2008!
The reason most other polls are wrong is that, seeing this Republican surge, they discount it as sampling error in their polls and re-weight the data to make it conform to the traditional partisan divisions, thus obliterating the real trend and obscuring what is actually going on.
The fact is that the country has moved sharply in the direction of the Republican Party since 2008 and even since 2010.
What was the split in 2010? Does it actually support your claim that the electorate will be more Republican in 2012? Can't help but notice that you conveniently failed to mention what it was...
Quote: rdw4potusWhat was the split in 2010? Does it actually support your claim that the electorate will be more Republican in 2012? Can't help but notice that you conveniently failed to mention what it was...
@ rdw4potus. Perhap didn't realize it, but there wasn't a presidential election in 2010. By the way, don't forget to vote on Nov. 8th! :)
@ Mission 145. Sure. To keep everything hassle free and simple, just go ahead and send me your money. :)
Quote: Keyser@ rdw4potus. Perhap didn't realize it, but there wasn't a presidential election in 2010. By the way, don't forget to vote on Nov. 8th! :)
The stats are published in midterms as well. What were they in 2010? Do they support your claim that the electorate this year will be more republican than it was in 2010?
Quote: Keyser@ Mission 145. Sure. To keep everything hassle free and simple, just go ahead and send me your money. :)
I'm tempted to get in on this. 320 votes? That's insane.
Quote: Keyser@ Mission 145. Sure. To keep everything hassle free and simple, just go ahead and send me your money. :)
Cool, it's a bet! Don't worry, if I lose, I will pay as promptly as it takes a money order to get to you!
If Romney gets 319 EC Votes or less, I win $25, if he gets 320 or more, you win $50.
was in 2008. It was Obama 52-46 at this time
in 08, its 52-46 Romney in 2012. Ignore it, I'm
sure its meaningless.
Quote: Mission146Cool, it's a bet! Don't worry, if I lose, I will pay as promptly as it takes a money order to get to you!
If Romney gets 319 EC Votes or less, I win $25, if he gets 320 or more, you win $50.
InTrade has this bet at +440. Betting $1.85 earns you $8.15. You will need to buy 5 shares at $1.85 each that will turn in to $10 each if Romney gets 320+. You lock in a $15.75 profit.
I have some Romney at 260+ EC Votes (as well as some 240+ EC and an outright win). Based on selling partial positions after the first debate bounce, I am free rolling in all the positions at this point. I do believe that the polls are under estimating the Romney vote....not sure why I think that, I just don't believe he has a sub 40% chance of being elected which is the current line at InTrade.
It will be an interesting week leading up to next Tuesday!
So, Today 2 weeks after these comments Karl Rove buys time in Pa. That tells me one of three things. Either Mr Rove has gotten a lot stupider in the last two weeks and I don't think that is it as while I have different views on what I would like the country to look like, Mr Rove is an expert at what he does. two, Mr Rove all of the sudden has too much money. More than he knows what to do with, so he is wasting it on Pa. Or, Three, he and the republican strategists are growing desperate. Despite what they say publicly on Fox, their internal numbers in Ohio, Wisconsin maybe even Virginia are not very good and they are desperately looking for a new path forward in the final minutes of the game. Much like a hail mary pass. :)
getting to the polls in Philly, which is like 90%
Dem. He explained it on Fox tonight. Even if
they can get there, they won't go because they
have other things on their minds.
Like somebody said, why did the storm have to
hit the largest grouping of Dems in the entire
country. They aren't motivated this year anyway,
and now this?
Quote: EvenBobThey think the storm is going to disrupt Dem's
getting to the polls in Philly, which is like 90%
Dem. He explained it on Fox tonight. Even if
they can get there, they won't go because they
have other things on their minds.
Like somebody said, why did the storm have to
hit the largest grouping of Dems in the entire
country. They aren't motivated this year anyway,
and now this?
Hell of a lot easier for urban dems to get to the polls than for rural repubs. The urbanites need to be able to walk to the end of the block, the rural repubs need to be willing and able to drive for miles.
Quote: EvenBobThey think the storm is going to disrupt Dem's
getting to the polls in Philly, which is like 90%
Dem. He explained it on Fox tonight. Even if
they can get there, they won't go because they
have other things on their minds.
Like somebody said, why did the storm have to
hit the largest grouping of Dems in the entire
country. They aren't motivated this year anyway,
and now this?
If that's what it is, that is a huge miscalculation. I lived in center city Philadelphia for 8 and a half years before relocating to Vegas. Any effects from this storm will be gone within a couple days, with the exception of a couple flood prone communities in the Mantua section of the city along the Schuylkill river and they flood regularly, several times a year. It is only a few hundred people and they are used to live under such circumstances. It's apparently what they like, or at least put up with to reside along the river.
Longer lasting issues in the region will effect the suburban places that routinely flood like the Neshaminy and Perkiomen creeks areas. Those suburban communities are not the diehard Dems you think of when you think Philly. They are a much more even mix of dems and repubs. As a matter of fact, anytime there is a statewide election (governor, senate) that is close, it is usually decided in these suburban almost 50-50 communities. Even though those suburban communities that I mentioned along the creeks may be dealing with flood issues, life does not stop. They all have cars and will go to work, shopping, church and the election polls. It's not the inter-city.
Quote: kewljIf that's what it is, that is a huge miscalculation. I lived in center city Philadelphia for 8 and a half years before relocating to Vegas. Any effects from this storm will be gone within a couple days, with the exception of a couple flood prone communities in the Mantua section of the city along the Schuylkill river and they flood regularly, several times a year. It is only a few hundred people and they are used to live under such circumstances. It's apparently what they like, or at least put up with to reside along the river.
Longer lasting issues in the region will effect the suburban places that routinely flood like the Neshaminy and Perkiomen creeks areas. Those suburban communities are not the diehard Dems you think of when you think Philly. They are a much more even mix of dems and repubs. As a matter of fact, anytime there is a statewide election (governor, senate) that is close, it is usually decided in these suburban almost 50-50 communities. Even though those suburban communities that I mentioned along the creeks may be dealing with flood issues, life does not stop. They all have cars and will go to work, shopping, church and the election polls. It's not the inter-city.
It's not bad here in the Philly area at all. I drove from Center City to Bethlehem today (the fact that I drove to Bethlehem today should tell you something), and it was a little worse there, but even there pretty much everything was cleaned up. I think it's actually worse over in the West/Northwest part of the state. Maybe someone from Pittsburgh or Erie or State College can comment on that.
Quote: kewljIf that's what it is, that is a huge miscalculation.
Yes, when Rove worked for Bush he was an
evil genius. Now that Bush is gone, he's just
a big dope. He's whatever you want him to be
if you're a Dem..
Quote: EvenBobYes, when Rove worked for Bush he was an
evil genius. Now that Bush is gone, he's just
a big dope. He's whatever you want him to be
if you're a Dem..
Naw, I'm sure General Custer was full of bluster too.
Quote: rdw4potusIt's not bad here in the Philly area at all. I drove from Center City to Bethlehem today (the fact that I drove to Bethlehem today should tell you something), and it was a little worse there, but even there pretty much everything was cleaned up. I think it's actually worse over in the West/Northwest part of the state. Maybe someone from Pittsburgh or Erie or State College can comment on that.
Pittsburgh is business as usual, just a few days of rain. Maybe some floods in small flood-prone areas. Nothing worth mentioning.
Quote: rdw4potusIt's not bad here in the Philly area at all. I drove from Center City to Bethlehem today (the fact that I drove to Bethlehem today should tell you something), and it was a little worse there, but even there pretty much everything was cleaned up. I think it's actually worse over in the West/Northwest part of the state. Maybe someone from Pittsburgh or Erie or State College can comment on that.
Pittsburgh is business as usual, just a few days of rain. Maybe some floods in small flood-prone areas. Nothing worth mentioning.
Quote: AZDuffmanPittsburgh is business as usual, just a few days of rain. Maybe some floods in small flood-prone areas. Nothing worth mentioning.
Then I really don't see how this isn't a miscalculation on the GOP's side. There's no lasting damage to create an access problem, so they're right back to their 5 point deficit.
Quote: rdw4potusThen I really don't see how this isn't a miscalculation on the GOP's side. There's no lasting damage to create an access problem, so they're right back to their 5 point deficit.
5-points? You need to see some more recent polling, PA is tied up with a possible lean to Romney. On the gorund here I do not see 1/10 the Obama enthusiasm, and Romney yard signs clearly outnumber Obama ones, all the oppisite of 2008.
Quote: AZDuffman5-points? You need to see some more recent polling, PA is tied up with a possible lean to Romney. On the gorund here I do not see 1/10 the Obama enthusiasm, and Romney yard signs clearly outnumber Obama ones, all the oppisite of 2008.
"Chasing Pa is chasing fools gold" Karl Rove's very own words just 2 weeks ago. Go at it! :)
Yard signs. Yeah that matters. That has always been a good measuring stick. Campaigns sometimes pay people in good locations to place a yard sign. lol In 2008, I saw more Ron Paul signs than John McCain signs. lol
Here's another quote from longtime GOP strategist Mike Murphy. “It’s like buying a cheap lotto ticket with a little extra money, Their day job is still, ‘How do we win Virginia and Ohio and get one more?’”
Quote: AZDuffman5-points? You need to see some more recent polling
Franklin & Marshall released a poll this morning that has it O+4. My bad:-)
Quote: kewlj"Chasing Pa is chasing fools gold" Karl Rove's very own words just 2 weeks ago. Go at it! :)
Yard signs. Yeah that matters. That has always been a good measuring stick. Campaigns sometimes pay people in good locations to place a yard sign. lol In 2008, I saw more Ron Paul signs than John McCain signs. lol
Here's another quote from longtime GOP strategist Mike Murphy. “It’s like buying a cheap lotto ticket with a little extra money, Their day job is still, ‘How do we win Virginia and Ohio and get one more?’”
I think that both sides are reading a little too much into these ad buys.
The Right is reading too much into it because some (though probably not most) want to believe that Team Romney is under the impression they have Ohio essentially locked up, so now they are making a last minute push into other States. I have not seen any data that supports the theory that Romney has Ohio locked up, I have seen spin from both sides supporting the theory that it is locked up, and assumptions made about the numbers by both sides that the numbers don't bear, but that's about it...
The Left is reading too much into it because they want to make it look like a desperate last minute attempt being made by a Romney Team who fully well believes that it is all but over for them in Ohio.
The fact is that a Pennsylvania ad buy is essentially the same thing as an Eastern Ohio ad buy and a Northern W.Va. ad buy, the N.W.Va being circumstantial, and that is if a good part of the ad buy is in Pittsburgh. It's a shared TV Market, so you're not really making that buy strictly to appeal to Pa., it's very well probably just another push in hotly contested Ohio coal country. On the other side of PA and in the South, maybe it hits some parts of Virginia.
The Minnesota ad buy is another scenario where, depending on the market you are buying, you're basically just hitting Wisconsin simultaneously. It makes sense, we're going to try to keep the pressure on in Wisconsin and give ourselves a long-shot at taking Minnesota.
Think of it like a Field Bet. It's still got a positive HE with Obama being the House, but you get to cover a lot of numbers and the most likely numbers (Ohio, Wisconsin) pay even money for a hit while you have Double on Snake Eyes in PA and Triple on Midnight in Minnesota. Roll the dice. He has a strong bankroll anyway, and he is approaching the set end of his session with a specific win goal in mind.
I think that the Michigan ad buy is more of the same, long-shot Michigan while you're getting a piece of Northwest Ohio, it also makes sense. If you had some State out there on an island already surrounded by solid Red or solid Blue that had Obama up by 5-10 points, then no, I don't think you make the bet regardless of how much money you have, but these buys simultaneously hit States that are much closer than the States in which the ads are being bought. Maybe you have some commuters that the ads target, as well.
Quote: rdw4potusFranklin & Marshall released a poll this morning that has it O+4. My bad:-)
With what D+10?
"VOTE OBAMA IT'S EASIER THAN GETTING A JOB!"
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/The-Streak-Republicans-Have-Won-Every-November-6th-Presidential-Election-Since-1860
Quote: AZDuffmanWith what D+10?
I can't drill down to the crosstabs. They have Casey +10 on Smith, and that's about 4 points too rich for Casey.
Even Rasmussen's most recent poll in PA has O+5. I don't see any poll since mid-October that has it closer than O+3.
Quote: Mission146The Right is reading too much into it because some (though probably not most) want to believe that Team Romney is under the impression they have Ohio essentially locked up, so now they are making a last minute push into other States. I have not seen any data that supports the theory that Romney has Ohio locked up, I have seen spin from both sides supporting the theory that it is locked up, and assumptions made about the numbers by both sides that the numbers don't bear, but that's about it...
I have. The Gallup data. Breitbart explains why, as does Dickmorris.com http://www.dickmorris.com/gallup-explains-why-other-polls-are-wrong/
Quote: KeyserI have. The Gallup data. Breitbart explains why, as does Dickmorris.com http://www.dickmorris.com/gallup-explains-why-other-polls-are-wrong/
Gallup issued a single state poll in Ohio?
Quote: rdw4potusGallup issued a single state poll in Ohio?
I'm sure they would, though maybe only for subscribers.
Quote: AZDuffmanI'm sure they would, though maybe only for subscribers.
I wonder what their options are there. The national tracker is pretty much the only partisan political poll that they do, and it's not big enough on a daily or even weekly basis to produce a usable state-level sample. The weekly rolling poll at Gallup has 2,700 respondents. About 1 on 30 americans lives in Ohio. So, they'd get about 90 Ohioans/week on average. It takes about 400 people to have a 5% MoE in a state-level poll. So if they routinely ask the same questions in the same order, they could probably produce an Ohio "poll" based on a 4 or 5 week aggregation of their data.
Quote: rdw4potusI wonder what their options are there. The national tracker is pretty much the only partisan political poll that they do, and it's not big enough on a daily or even weekly basis to produce a usable state-level sample. The weekly rolling poll at Gallup has 2,700 respondents. About 1 on 30 americans lives in Ohio. So, they'd get about 90 Ohioans/week on average. It takes about 400 people to have a 5% MoE in a state-level poll. So if they routinely ask the same questions in the same order, they could probably produce an Ohio "poll" based on a 4 or 5 week aggregation of their data.
They are surely doing private Ohio polls for one or both sides plus any number of other groups. Calling 1000 people in Ohio every week should be faiy easy. But you get what you pay for. We are paying nothing so get the most basic poll there.
Quote: KeyserI have. The Gallup data. Breitbart explains why, as does Dickmorris.com http://www.dickmorris.com/gallup-explains-why-other-polls-are-wrong/
When I say, "Numbers," I mean the numbers from more than one or two sources. I think the whole thing is a toss-up, with Romney coming in under 320 if he does win, of course. ;)
Quote: EvenBobYes, when Rove worked for Bush he was an
evil genius. Now that Bush is gone, he's just
a big dope. He's whatever you want him to be
if you're a Dem..
I will go with Karl Rove as an "evil UNETHICAL genius".
Quote: AZDuffmanThey are surely doing private Ohio polls for one or both sides plus any number of other groups. Calling 1000 people in Ohio every week should be faiy easy.
Gallup? No, they aren't. with a name like Gallup, BELIEVE ME, we'd see the polls published by someone if they existed.
They'd need to actually talk to 1000 people, which means calling between 15,000 and 25,000. And you can only call between about 5pm and about 9pm local time, usually excluding weekends. That's daunting. It's also why a good state-level poll - say by PPP or Public Opinion Strategies - costs $25k.
