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Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 4:21:51 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mosca: I will show you my perpetual motion machine when you provide the actual data and documentation that the perfect 495, i.e., 244/251 has been achieved.

What you seem to be missing here is the fact that I know how the 1.41% HA is calculated, and I know that the 244/251 "perfect math" can happen somehow, but that the liklihood of such is so remote as to provide a false promise of reality.

tuttigym



I don't have to show you anything; there are 6 pages of posts trying to explain to you why you are wrong, and nevertheless you continue to see what you want to see. It is time for you to ask yourself: Am I really right, and all the other people who have devoted their entire lives to studying mathematics and statistics and probability wrong, or have I just not looked at this long enough to understand it? And proceed from there. You believe as you will, but you are going to have to do a lot more than simply say that you don't believe it to make ME not believe it, because that is the sum total of your argument: that it isn't so because you don't believe that it is so.
NO KILL I
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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February 18th, 2010 at 4:38:59 PM permalink
Mosca: My goal was to provide some enlightenment on a premise which JB has shown to be false.

It is your intellect that will allow you to believe or not. Perhaps you or any one of the others who have devoted their lives to math and statistics and probabilities and odds could answer these very simple questions:

How much strength does it take to hit a 90 mph fastball 410 feet and how does one measure that
"strength"??? These two questions deal with another FALSE PREMISE.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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February 18th, 2010 at 4:44:28 PM permalink
Mosca: One other question: Before JB posted the 96.5% against a successful "perfect 495" happening, were you even aware that the success rate was only a 3.5%? If not, then JB and I might have actually expanded your craps conscienceness, and that is a good thing.

tuttigym
darnits
darnits
Joined: Feb 3, 2010
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February 18th, 2010 at 5:27:34 PM permalink
Maybe I will give this a try...

Suppose you go to the casino each day for 30 years (N ~ 10000). Suppose that each day you play 495 exactly pass line decisions each of those days.

One day, you have 300 PL wins vs. 195 PL Loses (High Player advantage), another day you could have 195 PL wins vs. 195 PL Losses (High House Advantage), while another day you have 247 PL wins vs. 248 PL losses (Slight House Advantage), while another day you have 248 PL wins vs. 247 PL Losses (Slight Player Advantage).

Now, let's say you record all of your PL outcomes for each day during lose 30 years. If you take the average per day of all PL wins during the 30 years, you will see that the average will be very close to 245. If you take the average per day of PL losses during the 30 years, you will see that the average will be close to 251.

When everyone is talking about a 1.41% HA, they are talking about an average of many events occurring.

Just think about it, when you have a really good day at the craps table, you could say there was a player advantage, cause heck you won! But when you lose your bankroll at the table during a given session, then you could say that the house had a bigger advantage than 1.41%.

But in the end of the day, those advantages, albeit player advantages or house advantages average out to a HA of 1.41%.
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 9:54:58 PM permalink
Gee whillakers.

Odds and house advantages are just measures of probability. Let's turn the question around. Prove to me that out of 495 craps come out rolls, on fair dice, the most probable outcome IS NOT 244 wins and 251 losses. Lets even keep it simpler. Prove to me that out of 2 tosses of the dice, the most probable outcome is not one heads and one tails.

That's what house advantage measures; it is a theoretical measure of probability which can be calculated using math and statistics. The premise of craps is that each die appears one time out of six times and that of course is subject to fluctuations over time that average out.

On 50% of sessions, you will win 244 times or more, and on 50% of sessions, OVER time, you will win 244 times or less.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Elyt007
Elyt007
Joined: Jan 31, 2010
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February 19th, 2010 at 12:44:52 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Gee whillakers. ] Prove to me that out of 2 tosses of the dice, the most probable outcome is not one heads and one tails.



Think you probably mean COINS here. :D
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 19th, 2010 at 4:52:01 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Prove to me that out of 495 craps come out rolls, on fair dice, the most probable outcome IS NOT 244 wins and 251 losses.

Yeah, it's the most probably SINGLE outcome. But it happens only 3.5% of the time. It is more probable that the results will be something else.

Tuttigym's problem is he can't understand how the most probable outcome is also very unlikely to happen.

It makes me wonder why he accepts the fact that a 7 is the most probable outcome of a roll of two dice.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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February 19th, 2010 at 6:08:23 AM permalink
darnits: 495 PL decisions in a day for 30 yrs?

First, while we are speculating because your set-up is wrong, the table has ten players which is very possible. All random shooters; so the SRR is 6.0. If there was between 45 seconds and one minute between rolls, it would take approximately 38 hours of continuous 24/7 play to complete the 495 PL outcomes.

Second, how many diapers will be soiled? And what is to prevent a premature death at the table?
And are you the only shooter or do the dice rotate between players?

Third, JB, in general terms, what is the liklihood that any given set of 495 PL outcomes will have wins in excess of 251 - very unlikely; somewhat unlikely; likely; somewhat likely; or
very likely??

Fourth, JB, do you know WHO and WHEN this 1.41% HA on PL outcomes was first produced??
Mosca seems to think it was over 3000 years or so ago,and that I am trying to change all that has come before kinda like when the earth was thought to be flat.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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February 19th, 2010 at 6:12:22 AM permalink
DJ: The most probable outcome of two rolled dice is any number other than a 7. After all, the 7 can be rolled only six ways. The totality of all the other rolled numbers is 30 ways.

Wow your interpretations of my posts need a little more critcal thought. But that is OK, I will continue to correct the errors as they appear.

tuttigym
cclub79
cclub79
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
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February 19th, 2010 at 6:16:42 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

DJ: The most probable outcome of two rolled dice is any number other than a 7.
tuttigym



Not correct. If you are phrasing it as "any number other than", the most probable outcome is tied between any number other than 2 and number other than 12. You are twisting the math to suit your argument.

I can't believe this is still raging.

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