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goatcabin
goatcabin
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February 14th, 2010 at 9:39:04 AM permalink
"The reason the house offers 10X or whatever is exactly because of that HA upward swing, and therefore, the so-called very low published HA wins create a false sense of well being in the player. After the point is established, the house ALWAYS has six ways to win, and the player has that many ways to lose which exceeds his opportunities to win on any given point (PL/FO).

For me, to answer your last question, once that point is established, I have up to 30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose on any given roll of the dice. My betting starts then and I create betting patterns that will provide me more ways to win than to lose. Can one lose doing that? of course, it is called gambling. The difference for me is discipline."

You remind me of a guy on rec.gambling.craps who insisted the "free" odds were a casino lie because after a point is established the pass/come player has less than a 50% chance to win the bet, ignoring the fact that the casino pays more than the bet amount when the player wins. The 1.41% applies ONLY to the flat portion of the bet and, as I and others have shown, is a weighted average of all the possible outcomes, including those resolved on the comeout and those going to a point. The less-than-50% chance of winning those points is exactly balanced by the payouts, 6 to 5, 3 to 2 and 2 to 1, which mirror the true odds.

When it was pointed out to him that the DP/DC player, once a point is established, has a greater-than-50% chance to win, so that, per his reasoning, there should be a player advantage, he said, "Yes, but the casino pays you less than the bet." So the payout was relevant here, but not on the "right" side. Duh!

As to your having 30 ways to win vs. 6 to lose, I assume you're talking about covering all the point numbers with place bets. Here again, it's not just a matter of ways to win vs. ways to lose. When the seven shows, you lose ALL of those other bets, not just one. Not only that, but the HA is higher on place bets than on the flat part of pass/come/DP/DC bets, 1.515% on 6/8, 4% on 5/9 and 6.67% on 4/10 (should be buy bets instead, of course).

Of course, the place bets have other advantages, mainly flexibility, since you can make them at any time, remove them at any time and pick which numbers to bet on. OTOH, some people do not like the fact that the dealer has to place them for you.

It's a matter of personal preference, but I do believe it's a good idea to understand where the HA comes from and take into account all the outcomes and their relative probabilities.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 14th, 2010 at 9:41:31 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

... once the point is established, PL/FO players chances of winning those bets diminish dractically...Why place yourself and your money at such a disadvantage with a contract bet? I know the FO bets are not contract, but they are never taken down once placed.



It is not an even bet, but pays up to 2:1. Perhaps you stick to the old dictum "never take the small end of the odds". Oddly enough this is one time that gets thrown out the window. And actually you *can* take Free Odds bets down.

Quote: tuttigym

The coin toss examples that are illustrated actually increase the validity of my thoughts because ...there are still only two outcomes available at 50/50. The PL/FO outcomes have greater margins for loss and those margins renew with each point ...



Again, I think I am starting to understand your objection. It is certainly quite possible to have one heck of a losing streak.

the other follow-up questions I might have asked have already just been posed.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
JB
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JB
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February 14th, 2010 at 10:02:10 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

JB: Okay. Now since we know that 65% of all table action is after the point is established, can you provide the HA for PL/FO bets based solely on winning and losing those bets to either point conversions or 7 outs?

Again, I recognize that the 1.41% HA exists based on the 244/251 PL outcomes, however, removing the Come Out naturals for both winning and losing or about 34% must necessarily skew those results heavily to the house side of the equation which renew with every point, right?

tuttigym


To use a video poker analogy, what you are asking is akin to saying "I understand Jacks or Better returns 99.5439%, but what about those deals that contain no high cards, such as 2-5-6-8-9 offsuit? Surely those hands don't return 99.5439%."

It is correct to say that every unique situation has its own expected value, but the house edge has already taken all of these situations into consideration. The house edge for a bet is the average house edge of every possible outcome for that bet.

Since you never know which situation you will end up with, the house edge you are up against is always the same at the time you place your bet.

For example, with video poker, you could be dealt unsuited 2-5-6-8-9, four of a kind, or a royal flush. Obviously a royal flush is a much better hand than unsuited 2-5-6-8-9, but you don't know until AFTER you place your bet what you are dealt, thus, the house edge you are up against when you place your bet is always 0.4561%.

Likewise, with the Pass Line bet in craps, some outcomes are rolling a 7 on the come-out roll (a win), establishing a point of 4 (not so good), and establishing a point of 8 (not too bad). Each of those three situations have different expected values, but the house edge already incorporates them. When you place a Pass Line bet on the come-out roll, the house edge you are up against is always 1.414%. The fact that it changes later on is irrelevant, and has already been accounted for.
goatcabin
goatcabin
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February 14th, 2010 at 10:53:53 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit


Again, I think I am starting to understand your objection. It is certainly quite possible to have one heck of a losing streak.



Of course it is. Even in a coin flip, it is possible. However, the same thing goes for place bets, which resolve with the same probabilities as points on pass/come, but don't pay true odds. Let's examine three aspects of bets on the point number six:

pass line point of six: probability of winning .4545, payoff 1:1
place bet on six: probability of winning .4545, payoff 7:6
odds bet on point of six: probability of winning, .4545, payoff 6:5

#1 and #3 go together, since you can't make the odds bet without a flat bet

Suppose you have $5 on the passline and $10 odds
5 ways to win $ 17 = 85
6 ways to lose $15 = -90
----
-5 / 11 * 15 = -.0303

Compare to $12 on place 6
5 ways to win $14 = 70
6 ways to lose $12 = -72
----
-2 / 11 * 12 = -.01515

So, AT THAT POINT IN TIME, the place bet looks like a better deal. However, people who tout the place bets over pass/come/odds always seem to overlook the comeout roll, where the pass/come bettor has the advantage:

8 ways to win $5 = 40
4 ways to lose $5 = -20
----
20 / 12 * 5 = +.3333

The "wrong" bettor is in the opposite situation, having a positive expectation after a point is established, but a big disadvantage on the comeout:

8 ways to lose $5 = -40
3 ways to win $5 = 15
---
-25 / 11 * 5 = -.4545 OR, if you count the push
-25 / 12 * 5 = -.4167

If you take a high enough odds multiple, you can get the HA down to equal (5X odds) or lower (> 5X) than the place, even after a point is established, but only by risking a lot more money. The odds bets add volatility without adding to the expected loss.

In comparing bets:
1) always take all the possibilities into account
2) always consider the volatility as well as the HA, especially if you are playing with a relatively small bankroll
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
tuttigym
tuttigym
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February 14th, 2010 at 3:40:13 PM permalink
JB: Does that 3.5+% represent the fact that the "perfect math" will present itself three and one half times out of 100 attempts of 495 PL outcomes? Please clarify. Thanks

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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February 14th, 2010 at 4:18:06 PM permalink
goatcabin: In other discussions with knowledgeable people such as yourself, they also have offered similar percentages for winning the various established points. It puzzles me that the determination of those percentages disagrees with the calculations you have just used for winning the Come Out roll. First, I know how you made the calculations to get those percentages, so a re-hash would be unnecessary for me. I shall be specific:

WIN VS LOSES = PERCENTAGE and party advantage

Come Out Roll: 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose = 2 to 1 or player advantage of 50%

Point 6 or 8: 5 ways to win and 6 ways to lose = 16 2/3% house advantage

Point 5 or 9: 4 ways to win and 6 ways to lose = 33 1/3% house advantage

Point 4 or 10: 3 ways to win and 6 ways to lose = 2 to 1 house advantage of 50%

Why do you or the Wizard or anyone else calculate the Come out one way and the point conversion house advantage another way especially since the FO "true odds" payouts reflect the above and not the 4/10 of 67% house advantage? Why the lack of consistency in creating these calculations and "odds"?

tuttigym
JB
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JB
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February 14th, 2010 at 5:57:53 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

JB: Does that 3.5+% represent the fact that the "perfect math" will present itself three and one half times out of 100 attempts of 495 PL outcomes? Please clarify. Thanks

tuttigym


On average, yes. It doesn't mean you won't see 500 sets of 495 PL outcomes go by with none of them being "perfect" as you call it. When it comes to gambling, the only thing you can rely on is averages.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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February 15th, 2010 at 7:42:57 AM permalink
JB: Thank you for clarifying for those calculations and basically confirming that the chances of posting a perfect 244/251 PL outcomes is approximately 96.5% AGAINST the "perfect math" outcome happening.

Ladies and gentlemen while the "hoax" does not really exist, the calculations posted by JB with the addendum clarification shown above basically throws the 1.41% HA on PL outcomes under the bus.

tuttigym
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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February 15th, 2010 at 8:25:32 AM permalink
Quote: JB

When it comes to gambling, the only thing you can rely on is averages.

...And isn't the average a HA of 1.41%?

Quote: tuttigym

Ladies and gentlemen while the "hoax" does not really exist, the calculations posted by JB with the addendum clarification shown above basically throws the 1.41% HA on PL outcomes under the bus.

If you're saying it a nearly impossible to hit the average, you're right. And that has nothing to do with craps. In any event of probabilities, it's hard for an individual to hit the statistical average.

But that doesn't change the fact that the average is a fair prediction of expected results.

How can you agree that the hoax doesn't exist and still throw the 1.41 HA under the bus?



FYI: The only thing under the bus is your argument.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
JB
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JB
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February 15th, 2010 at 10:04:49 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

...And isn't the average a HA of 1.41%?


Yes.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

If you're saying it a nearly impossible to hit the average, you're right. And that has nothing to do with craps. In any event of probabilities, it's hard for an individual to hit the statistical average.

But that doesn't change the fact that the average is a fair prediction of expected results.

How can you agree that the hoax doesn't exist and still throw the 1.41 HA under the bus?

FYI: The only thing under the bus is your argument.


I agree with all of the above. I'm not sure what he was trying to prove.

There is one other thing you can rely on when it comes to gambling, and that is that everybody is an "expert". (eyes rolling)

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