Is Vegas The Next Detroit?
May 31st, 2011 at 4:16:54 PM
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I read articles all the time about Vegas, and blogs. Its the same story we heard about Detroit for years and years. First the jobs went, then the real estate. They just said today Vegas housing took yet another hit, its now below where it bottomed out in 2009. On the blogs, people who live in Vegas say residents are leaving in droves, just like they did in Detroit 10 years ago. The median price of a Detroit house in now $6000. On Vegas blogs, I read comments of people who now live in insane neighborhoods, where the vacant house next door and the one across the street and the one two doors down all have brown grass and litter and broken windows where somebody has gotten in and lived there till they were kicked out. Yet if the person in the good house leaves his kids bike in the driveway overnight, he has a nasty note from his neighborhood Nazi housing police on his door in the morning. Everybody thought Detroit would come back and it never did, foreign car sales killed it. Everybody thinks Vegas will come back, but every new casino that opens takes just a little more away from NV, and the money goes elsewhere. Its going to take more than a big Ferris wheel, its going to take a fricking miracle, and it never happened in Detroit. Why do we think its going to happen in Vegas? People will say, well, Vegas isn't Detroit. Isn't it? No jobs, mass exodus of the population, property values plummeting. The hell its not Detroit..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 4:56:22 PM
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I swear, I found this 20min after I made the first post. From earlier this month:
Is Vegas the New Detroit?
http://publicaffairs.unlv.ath.cx/articles/Daily%20Clips/05-12-2011.Is%20Vegas%20The%20New%20Detroit%20%28Money%20Show%29.pdf
Is Vegas the New Detroit?
http://publicaffairs.unlv.ath.cx/articles/Daily%20Clips/05-12-2011.Is%20Vegas%20The%20New%20Detroit%20%28Money%20Show%29.pdf
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 5:00:22 PM
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May 31st, 2011 at 5:03:26 PM
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Just for clarification of terms, there is the
(a) city of Detroit proper
(b) urban area of Detroit (9 times the area of the city; 5.4 times the population of the city)
(c) the Detroit Metro Area (bright yellow counties) (27 times the area of the city; 6.0 times the population of the city)
(d) the Detroit Combined Metropolitan Statistical area (41 times the area of the city; 6.4 times the population of the city
Comparing the cities proper: Detroit and Las Vegas are roughly the same area, but Detroit still has 22% more population. However, the city has been decreasing in population for 60 years and is down by about 60%. So you must have blocks and blocks of abandoned town homes. You still have a downtown Renaissance Center in Detroit with nothing equivalent in Las Vegas. Somewhat surprisingly you probably have more gambling inside the city limits of Detroit than you do inside the city limits of Las Vegas. CLV has the Golden Nugget, Rampart, the Suncoast, and the Stratosphere as it's only major casinos inside the city limits.
The CLV has lost almost no one in the past few years. It may suffer from many big city ills, but mass depopulation of neighborhoods has not happened. The crime rate is not nearly as high.
While the city of Detroit has been dropping rapidly in population since 1950, the metro, and CMSA area have held steady since 1970. There was a slight downturn in Michigan the last census.
I just don't think that a city whose growth has been stopped is quite as bad as a city that has lost 60% of it's people in 60 years. What seems to be worse, is that the situation in Detroit is accelerating. It's not expected that Las Vegas will have anything like the "white flight" that hit Detroit. It will probably continue to be very attractive to retirees.
Detroit MSA 4,490,902 in 1970 and 4,296,250 in 2010
Detroit CMSA 5,289,766 in 1970 and 5,218,852 in 2010
My guess is that you will see Clark County much larger in 40 years, but Detroit CMSA doesn't look like it will grow
May 31st, 2011 at 5:17:20 PM
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Paco, how dare you be dispassioante in the face of alarmism? :P
Seriously, while officially the city of Las Vegas has the few casinos you mentioned, what people think of and reffer to as Las Vegas is a great deal alrger. So how do the stats work out including Clark County, Suemmerlin, North LV, Henderson, and all the rest (whatever that may be)? For starters I guess there are more casinos than anywhere else in the U.S. But how does the population work out? What changes have there been in demographics?
Seriously, while officially the city of Las Vegas has the few casinos you mentioned, what people think of and reffer to as Las Vegas is a great deal alrger. So how do the stats work out including Clark County, Suemmerlin, North LV, Henderson, and all the rest (whatever that may be)? For starters I guess there are more casinos than anywhere else in the U.S. But how does the population work out? What changes have there been in demographics?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
May 31st, 2011 at 5:28:44 PM
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Quote: gofaster87I dont know, if people are leaving in droves Im not sure why I have to deal with so much damn traffic everyday.
I've lived in a dozen cities in half dozen different states, and Las Vegas doesn't have near the traffic problems of other metro areas. In fact, I think it's laid out quite well. Aside from the diagonal Boulder Hwy and Rancho, all the streets are north/south, and east/west, it's the flattest town I've ever lived in so cycling is easy, there's a beltway all around the LV perimeter, lots of bus routes, and the town is small enough that anyplace is about 20 minutes away, as long as it's not on the Strip of course. Even 5pm traffic on I-15 isn't bad compared to some towns of this size.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
May 31st, 2011 at 5:31:36 PM
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May 31st, 2011 at 5:36:34 PM
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Quote: NareedPaco, how dare you be dispassioante in the face of alarmism? :P
When should the alarmism start, when the horse has been out of the barn for a day? Or should we wait a month? These things don't happen overnight, but in Vegas it almost has. The bubble burst, and everybody thinks they'll put ol Humpty Dumpty back together again and everything will be as before. Vegas was built so incredibly fast, that its almost inevitable that it should decline just as fast. It was built because it was in the only state that had legalized gambling. That was its claim to fame. Now all thats changed, gambling and casinos are in almost every state. There's no way Vegas can ever be what it once was, its not possible.
It reminds me of when Ebay first started in the mid 90's. For about 5 years, I was a king. I would go to all the camera shows and gun shows and military shows and radio shows, and spend thousands and make thousands on Ebay. Its because very few of the vendors at shows had computers. But that slowly changed, and by 2001, I started hearing the 'Ebay echo' at shows, everywhere I went they were talking and whispering about Ebay. My business plummeted, it was inevitable. The same thing is happening to Vegas, only its so huge and on such a grand scale, its moving at glacial speed. But its moving, never doubt it. Its inevitable, just like it was for me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 5:39:45 PM
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Quote: zippyboyI've lived in a dozen cities in half dozen different states, and Las Vegas doesn't have near the traffic problems of other metro areas. In fact, I think it's laid out quite well.
I love driving in Vegas, because its all so modern. Its well planned and new, compared to cities that are dealing with streets that were designed before cars were invented. Its amazing how fast you can zip around Vegas, as long as you stay away from the you know what...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 5:48:48 PM
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Quote: gofaster87I dont know, if people are leaving in droves
There's no 'if' about it. Somewhere in 2009, the number of people leaving exceeded the number of people arriving, and its got steadily worse ever since. But the real problem is, a lot of the people who want to leave, can't. They have houses they can't sell, or they're on unemployment and have no money to go anywhere else. If everybody who wanted to leave, did leave, it would be catastrophic to the local economy.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 5:54:36 PM
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May 31st, 2011 at 5:56:37 PM
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Thanks for the stats, Paco. There are parts of Detroit that are a wasteland. There are parts of Vegas who are becoming like that. But unless Detroit, Vegas is warm in the winter, attracting retirees. Vegas has nowhere to run to, as there are few services outside of the metro, whereas Detroit has plenty of suburbs to run to. Vegas was still growing in size up until the recession started even as other states was opening casinos. I think Vegas will come back. Obviously housing has come more than back to earth.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
May 31st, 2011 at 6:11:35 PM
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I don't see Vegas being "another Detroit" but I do think the super-growth of the 1990s is being paid for now. The City of Detroit had its fate sealed in the race riots of the 1960s. Good people will not live around that so they leave. Their tax dollars lost take a toll and the cycle becomes viscious. I think Vegas has more commonsense people than Detroit who made a stink about kids in schools having to pass metal detectors to kkeep weapons out. Housing in Vegas is similar to Phoenix. Crappy construction quality is beginning to show and people bought houses way beyond their means. Vegas will recover--in 2025.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
May 31st, 2011 at 6:15:06 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIt reminds me of when Ebay first started in the mid 90's. For about 5 years, I was a king. I would go to all the camera shows and gun shows and military shows and radio shows, and spend thousands and make thousands on Ebay. Its because very few of the vendors at shows had computers. But that slowly changed, and by 2001, I started hearing the 'Ebay echo' at shows, everywhere I went they were talking and whispering about Ebay. My business plummeted, it was inevitable.
Way off topic I know, but...
Ebay was fantastic in the beginning. People were dumping their attic's contents on ebay, mom-n-pop antique stores were selling off their store shelves, pickers were selling on ebay rather than to dealers. It was bliss for buyers and sellers alike. World's biggest garage sale. Once the novelty wore off and the sales had run their course and everyone who had always wanted that Geronimo lunchbox finally had one, prices and choices took a nosedive. B & M antique stores dried up after depleting their inventory. And why pay ebay's fees to sell when Craigslist is free? Or just announce you have concert tickets on twitter and sell immediately, rather than wait a week on ebay?
Ebay is depressing now, if you're a seller. And I've taken a loss on shipping costs with everything I've ever sold. Price the shipping too high and no one bids (or they give you bad feedback on shipping), or price it too low and eat the difference. I've sold heavy, awkward items that require custom boxes to be built, lots of bubble-wrap, gas prices are high, etc but no one wants to pay the extra to ensure its safe delivery. I just sold a framed 100-yr-old lithograph on ebay and asked for $90 shipping (based on previous sales), buyer was willing to go $50. I took it to UPS and shipping was an astounding $307 total, for the box, insurance and shipping. Then the glass shattered in transit. Buyer did pay another $100 towards shipping when I emailed a pic of the receipt, and actual litho was unharmed, but for $307, you'd think UPS would take better care of it. I think I'm done with ebay.
Thanks for letting me rant.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
May 31st, 2011 at 8:06:00 PM
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Quote: zippyboyWay off topic I know, but...
Ebay was fantastic in the beginning..
I sold tons of antique guns and Nazi military items before Ebay banned them. I'd go to a gun show and buy a 100yr old Sat nite special for $45, and sell it on Ebay for $125. At every show I'd buy dozens of them, and Nazi swords and daggers and medals and anything I could get. The sellers had no idea there was a new venue, and by the time they realized it, Ebay had banned all those items. Oh well.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 8:10:45 PM
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Quote: boymimboVegas was still growing in size up until the recession started even as other states was opening casinos.
For some reason, the recession hasn't slowed the growth in other states at all, in fact its improved it. They look at a casino as a business that brings in huge amounts for the state, employs hundreds of people, its a win-win for everybody. Its very exciting to be here in the MidWest with all this happening, and now whats going on in Chicago. Its such a far cry from 10 years ago, I almost can't believe it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 8:27:23 PM
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Quote: EvenBobI read articles all the time about Vegas, and blogs. Its the same story we heard about Detroit for years and years. First the jobs went, then the real estate. They just said today Vegas housing took yet another hit, its now below where it bottomed out in 2009. On the blogs, people who live in Vegas say residents are leaving in droves, just like they did in Detroit 10 years ago. The median price of a Detroit house in now $6000. On Vegas blogs, I read comments of people who now live in insane neighborhoods, where the vacant house next door and the one across the street and the one two doors down all have brown grass and litter and broken windows where somebody has gotten in and lived there till they were kicked out. Yet if the person in the good house leaves his kids bike in the driveway overnight, he has a nasty note from his neighborhood Nazi housing police on his door in the morning. Everybody thought Detroit would come back and it never did, foreign car sales killed it. Everybody thinks Vegas will come back, but every new casino that opens takes just a little more away from NV, and the money goes elsewhere. Its going to take more than a big Ferris wheel, its going to take a fricking miracle, and it never happened in Detroit. Why do we think its going to happen in Vegas? People will say, well, Vegas isn't Detroit. Isn't it? No jobs, mass exodus of the population, property values plummeting. The hell its not Detroit..
A few errors in your thinking: The white flight from Detroit began with the 1967 riots, and pretty much was done by the 1990's. Foreign car sales did not "kill Detroit". These things did: flight to the suburbs by the middle class changed the job base in the city, complete mismanagement of the city from top to bottom by everyone from Mayors Coleman Young to Kwame Kilpatrick, total incompetence and outright thievery by the administrators of the Detroit Public School system and the recent demise (and comeback) of the Big 3 due in part to UAW greediness and their belated failure to adjust to the times.
Joseph Kulas
May 31st, 2011 at 8:39:21 PM
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Quote: VegasVic14A few errors in your thinking: The white flight from Detroit began with the 1967 riots, and pretty much was done by the 1990's. Foreign car sales did not "kill Detroit". These things did: flight to the suburbs by the middle class changed the job base in the city, complete mismanagement of the city from top to bottom by everyone from Mayors Coleman Young to Kwame Kilpatrick, total incompetence
It was everything, including foreign car sales. And I really get tired of the 'white flight' thing. Its was blacks as well as whites that moved, thats why all those old black neighborhoods are empty. People love to think Detroit was all blacks on welfare and food stamps. Wrong. It had a huge and prosperous black middle class and they're the ones that moved. Cars are still made there, the industry is still the biggest employer, its just that its a shadow of its former self because improved manufacturing needs a fraction of the workers it once used.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 9:33:41 PM
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From the time of Nevada statehood in 1864 it was the least populous state until Alaska became a state in the 1950's. There is simply not a good reason to move there until Air Conditioning, automobiles and weekend entertainment.
From the least populous state in 1950 Nevada got a 2nd representative in the 1980 census, a 3rd in the 2000 census, and a 4th in the 2010 census.
Both Nevada and Utah rounded up in population to get their 4th representative. In other words they each have less than 4/435'th of the population. But Utah is slightly larger than Nevada and has profoundly better prospects of continual growth. But Nevada will have to grow faster than the nation as a whole in order to maintain it's 4th seat in the House of representatives.
States have shrunk many times before: In the 1930's with depression "dust bowl" was the first time 6 states shrunk in population
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Vermont
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The states that shrink in the next ten years will do so because of demographics: the aging and lack of children of the portion of the population that is primarily European in ancestry. The Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states and the industrial portion of the midwest. The table below is based on 2010 census numbers.
There could be 6-10 states that shrink in population by the next census.
From the least populous state in 1950 Nevada got a 2nd representative in the 1980 census, a 3rd in the 2000 census, and a 4th in the 2010 census.
Both Nevada and Utah rounded up in population to get their 4th representative. In other words they each have less than 4/435'th of the population. But Utah is slightly larger than Nevada and has profoundly better prospects of continual growth. But Nevada will have to grow faster than the nation as a whole in order to maintain it's 4th seat in the House of representatives.
States have shrunk many times before: In the 1930's with depression "dust bowl" was the first time 6 states shrunk in population
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Vermont
-----------
The states that shrink in the next ten years will do so because of demographics: the aging and lack of children of the portion of the population that is primarily European in ancestry. The Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states and the industrial portion of the midwest. The table below is based on 2010 census numbers.
There could be 6-10 states that shrink in population by the next census.
| Region | Sub-Region | States | White non-Latino ,000 | Other ,000 | Latino ,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | Northeast | 6 | -292 | 390 | 425 |
| East | Mid Atlantic | 3 | -1,027 | 915 | 1,313 |
| Midwest | EN Central | 5 | -548 | 749 | 1,066 |
| Midwest | WN Central | 7 | 259 | 538 | 471 |
| South | S Atlantic | 9 | 1,634 | 2,854 | 2,930 |
| South | ES Central | 4 | 505 | 513 | 391 |
| South | WS Central | 4 | 497 | 1,277 | 3,128 |
| West | Pacific | 5 | -424 | 1,696 | 3,583 |
| West | Mountain | 8 | 1,519 | 701 | 1,673 |
May 31st, 2011 at 9:40:30 PM
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Here is my take on it ... Las Vegas is an up and coming city with great characterstics that will allow it to prosper in the future while Detroit had none of them.
Lets start with taxes. Nevada has no income tax Detroit and Michigan were / are very high. This allows people to come from California and start up shop (zappos).
Liberal Laws. People don't want to feel as though their rights are violated the minute they wake up As an example Nevada has very liberal Gun Laws. Detroit not so much.
Adaptation. Nevada and Las vegas are "hunter" communities they kill what they eat meaning they take whats given to them and work with it. Silver mines? lets do it.... Prostitution? Go for it ... Gambling Hell yeah. Detroit as evidenced by the results never changed.
And one of the big ones .... Weather. I know it sounds silly but the reality i people want to live wher it doesn't snow, sleet and rain for 8 months of the year.
This is an economic downturn and the weak get pulverized in economic downturns. Unfortunatly all the new money that was coming into Vegas was weak money and didn't have roots. The community will be fine in the next economic expansion it just takes time.
Lets start with taxes. Nevada has no income tax Detroit and Michigan were / are very high. This allows people to come from California and start up shop (zappos).
Liberal Laws. People don't want to feel as though their rights are violated the minute they wake up As an example Nevada has very liberal Gun Laws. Detroit not so much.
Adaptation. Nevada and Las vegas are "hunter" communities they kill what they eat meaning they take whats given to them and work with it. Silver mines? lets do it.... Prostitution? Go for it ... Gambling Hell yeah. Detroit as evidenced by the results never changed.
And one of the big ones .... Weather. I know it sounds silly but the reality i people want to live wher it doesn't snow, sleet and rain for 8 months of the year.
This is an economic downturn and the weak get pulverized in economic downturns. Unfortunatly all the new money that was coming into Vegas was weak money and didn't have roots. The community will be fine in the next economic expansion it just takes time.
May 31st, 2011 at 10:23:35 PM
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Quote: MineshaftHere is my take on it ... Las Vegas is an up and coming city with great characterstics that will allow it to prosper in the future while Detroit had none of them..
Some people here miss the point entirely, as I knew they would. Comparing Detroit to Vegas is like comparing apples to oranges, they are nothing alike. The point is, what happens to a city when its major industry is gradually taken away, it has high unemployment, and property values plummet. Real unemployment in Vegas is around 20%, and over 70% of the home owners are under water. We know what happened to Detroit, people moved away and abandoned their homes. In Vegas, people are moving away and abandoning their homes. Maybe a miracle will happen and casinos around the country will stop opening like McDonalds and BK franchises were doing in the 70's. If they don't, were looking at an extremely downsized Vegas, like we have a downsized Detroit. Downsized employment, downsized home values, downsized wages.
The real Giant Killer is this. 70+% of Vegas houses are now underwater. So what, you ask. This is a very big deal because people on average move every 5 years, according the real estate experts. This means you have a lot of very nervous people in Vegas who want to leave but can't, because if they sell in the current market, they could easily owe 10's of thousands, even hundred's of thousands to the mortgage company at closing, even after applying the selling price. They don't have the money, so they're hanging on month to month, scraping up the mortgage in many cases, hoping for the best. This is a disaster waiting to happen, because as soon as any kind of recovery is seen as ocurring, these people will all be selling at the same time, making for another housing disaster as thousands of houses come on the market all at once. Not a good scenario, to say the least.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 11:09:36 PM
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Quote: EvenBobComparing Detroit to Vegas is like comparing apples to oranges, they are nothing alike.
You have to admit that the title of the thread is misleading if you didn't want to compare the cities.
While people will abandon their homes in Vegas, other people will be happy to move into them, at bargain prices. People don't want to move to Detroit even if the homes are practically free.
Look, here is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home for $18.5K in detroit at 1000 square feet.
If your point is that a service based economy is no more stable than a manufacturing based economy, then it is difficult to disagree.
Forbes list one billionaire from Detroit, but looking at his home address he lives in Oakland County, about 17 miles from Detroit
Quote: Forbes 400
Michael Ilitch & family
Net Worth $1.7 B
As of March 2011
Age: 81
Source: pizza , self-made
Penny-pinching consumers and falling commodity prices supporting Little Caesar's bottom line throughout economic slowdown. Recession hampering other fortune: wife, Marian, owns Detroit's MotorCity Casino Hotel; gambling industry recently crushed as cost-conscious consumers avoid the tables and slots. She isn't deterred: she wants to invest in an Indian casino in the Hamptons. Owner of pro hockey's Detroit Red Wings, pro baseball's Detroit Tigers. Ilitch was front-runner to buy pro basketball's Detroit Pistons last fall, then walked away, but is said to be back in the hunt again. His hope is for a new downtown arena for both hockey and basketball.
May 31st, 2011 at 11:27:00 PM
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Quote: pacomartin
While people will abandon their homes in Vegas, other people will be happy to move into them, at bargain prices.
People will buy them at bargain prices, but not necessarily move into them. Many of them are bought by speculators looking for rental property. This is a crapshoot in a city that has an increasingly diminishing population. The speculators could easily get caught with their pants down if Vegas doesn't recover soon. I'm sure todays housing news has them popping antacids like candy. Vegas reminds me of the Palace of Versailles just before the French Revolution. The glitz and glamor and high living and huge parties when on right till the last, even as France was falling apart around them. Anybody could see what was coming, but they chose not to.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2011 at 11:48:36 PM
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Quote: EvenBoba city that has an increasingly diminishing population.
I am just not sure where you are getting your information from. The census bureau says Clark county was increasing by an average of 58,563 people from 2000 to 2009, which was reduced to an increase of 48,435 people in 2010. I can find no statistics that supports the idea that the population is diminishing.
June 1st, 2011 at 12:10:05 AM
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Here's one, but its from 7 months ago, and things have gotten worse since then. I read so many articles, I will try and find the better ones.
"But the number no one has ever had a good handle on was how many people were (or are now) moving out of Las Vegas. U-Haul’s estimate that 2% more people are moving out than are moving in might be right, but doesn’t jibe with what the guys at Bekins told me recently. They said they are very busy and that the ratio was 2 to 1 people moving out of Vegas to moving in and some days it is 3 to 1."
A poll by the big paper in Vegas has a third of the residents moving out of Vegas if they could get a job somewhere else. A third.
LeavingVegas
"But the number no one has ever had a good handle on was how many people were (or are now) moving out of Las Vegas. U-Haul’s estimate that 2% more people are moving out than are moving in might be right, but doesn’t jibe with what the guys at Bekins told me recently. They said they are very busy and that the ratio was 2 to 1 people moving out of Vegas to moving in and some days it is 3 to 1."
A poll by the big paper in Vegas has a third of the residents moving out of Vegas if they could get a job somewhere else. A third.
LeavingVegas
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 12:24:15 AM
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Here's an article from the Vegas Sun:
"Jeff Hardcastle, the state’s demographer, estimates Nevada has 70,000 fewer residents since last year, including about 50,000 fewer in Clark County."
Clark county is Vegas, and 50k is nothing to sneeze at. I'm trying to find the article that said more people have been leaving than coming since 2009.
VegasDecline
A friend of mine went to Vegas with his wife last year for the first time. When he got home I asked him all about it, and eventually asked when he was going back. He looked at me kind of funny and said, "Why would we go back, we already saw it. If we want to go to a nice casino, we'll go to Four Winds." I was kind of insulted because I love Vegas so much. But as time goes on, I'm more and more understanding what he means.
"Jeff Hardcastle, the state’s demographer, estimates Nevada has 70,000 fewer residents since last year, including about 50,000 fewer in Clark County."
Clark county is Vegas, and 50k is nothing to sneeze at. I'm trying to find the article that said more people have been leaving than coming since 2009.
VegasDecline
A friend of mine went to Vegas with his wife last year for the first time. When he got home I asked him all about it, and eventually asked when he was going back. He looked at me kind of funny and said, "Why would we go back, we already saw it. If we want to go to a nice casino, we'll go to Four Winds." I was kind of insulted because I love Vegas so much. But as time goes on, I'm more and more understanding what he means.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 12:32:47 AM
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Quote: EvenBobThe point is, what happens to a city when its major industry is gradually taken away
Of course, gambling opening up in other areas doesn't necessarily always mean a direct loss of business in Vegas. Some of the customers frequentlng these new casinos, may have never had any intention of coming to Vegas anyway. Take my parents. They ended up in casinos not because they ever made a trip to Vegas, but that they started taking ship cruises. And they still never planned to come to Vegas. I suppose if an Indian casino had opened up right near them, being convenient and all, curiousity probably would have taken them there too -- maybe more than a couple times. But they still probably wouldn't have come to Vegas. Gambling wasn't their thing.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
June 1st, 2011 at 12:41:08 AM
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Quote: rxwineOf course, gambling opening up in other areas doesn't necessarily always mean a direct loss of business in Vegas.
Theres an old story in business. A barber shop has been in the same location for 40 years and a new hair care place opens across the street. Somebody asks the old barber if it will hurt his business. He answers, "It doesn't help.."
Thats how you have to look at new casinos opening in other states. It certainly doesn't help Vegas.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 12:52:11 AM
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Quote: rxwineOf course, gambling opening up in other areas doesn't necessarily always mean a direct loss of business in Vegas. Some of the customers frequentlng these new casinos, may have never had any intention of coming to Vegas anyway.
Remember that Vegas went through this in the 80's. There wasn't a major casino built from '77 to '89. In 1984 Atlantic City actually surpassed Las Vegas in gaming revenue (for one year). People assumed that Vegas was through simply because there was no need to go there if you could gamble nearby.
But, as we all know, visionaries like Steve Wynn figured that all of these other locations would make good training ground, that would make people more and more hungry to go to Vegas. Up through 2007 he was correct.
I think that a prolonged period of lack of growth is more likely than massive collapse. Although I wonder how companies like MGM Resorts can continue to operate with such poor performance.
June 1st, 2011 at 1:28:00 AM
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Quote: pacomartinRemember that Vegas went through this in the 80's. There wasn't a major casino built from '77 to '89.
Its much different this time. There's a world wide recession with no end in sight. And there are hundreds of casinos now outside of NV; that wasn't happening in the 80's. I look at Vegas as a huge company with 10's of thousands of employee's. Their customer base is threatened and the economy is bad. What would a company do in those conditions. Downsize until they're small enough to make a profit again. Its the only option, or they'll go broke.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 1:35:18 AM
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Quote: pacomartin, which was reduced to an increase of 48,435 people in 2010.
You can't go by the census, its skewed by babies being born and doesn't accurately count illegal workers. You want the number of people who work and own or rent, not their kids. And that number is going down, not up. Just like the 14% unemployment rate doesn't count the people who gave up looking for work. The real number is around 21%. It was 25% during the Depression, and some feel its already that high in Vegas.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 2:52:06 AM
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Quote: EvenBobTheres an old story in business. A barber shop has been in the same location for 40 years and a new hair care place opens across the street. Somebody asks the old barber if it will hurt his business. He answers, "It doesn't help.."
Thats how you have to look at new casinos opening in other states. It certainly doesn't help Vegas.
...also....
Quote: rxwineOf course, gambling opening up in other areas doesn't necessarily always mean a direct loss of business in Vegas. Some of the customers frequentlng these new casinos, may have never had any intention of coming to Vegas anyway. Take my parents. They ended up in casinos not because they ever made a trip to Vegas, but that they started taking ship cruises. And they still never planned to come to Vegas. I suppose if an Indian casino had opened up right near them, being convenient and all, curiousity probably would have taken them there too -- maybe more than a couple times. But they still probably wouldn't have come to Vegas. Gambling wasn't their thing.
What we haven't discussed is that a lot of LOCAL Las Vegas revenue comes directly here from out-of-state casinos, even some International casinos.
It's not just that it isn't always a loss; it's that it's a gain, - that many out-of-state casino operators support companies here.
1. ALL of the major Gaming companies who sell to out-of-state casino operators bring income here to Las Vegas: Shufflemaster, Galaxy Gaming, DEQ, Bally's, IGT, WMS, WSOP - you name it. I know the check I receive for EZ Pai Gow (spent and distributed here) comes from out-of-state buyers, aside from the Cannery group at this point. This is like the old-time Barber shop answering about the new hair stylist across the street - "Fine with me - I have a big peice of his action over there." So I disagree with Bob: if you have stock in your competition, and get income from your competition, then your competition is not your competition but instead a subsidiary of your own operation.
2. A LOT more people are now introduced to gambling, and that gambling is now a larger part of many people's lives; these people now may be more inclined to visit Las Vegas before visiting Ft. Lauderdale, FL, let's say, in spite of and because of having their own local casinos.
3. When we think of Las Vegas as a one-industry town, we shouldn't think of that industry as "Gaming;" we should think of it as "leisure, convention, hospitality and entertainment." When I lived in New York, I was a couple of hours from Atlantic City, Mohegansun, and Foxwoods. Why would I go there (and A.C. is a dump!) for a day outing when I can fly to "weekend" in LV Friday night, play the weekend and see a show, and leave Sunday night? That's what I did.
True, out of state casinos make a dent in our gambling revenue: when AC opened up in the late 70's, it killed a lot of Vegas action by keeping a lot of East coast dice players East. But it did not knock LV as the premiere Gaming AND Entertainment destination, and I don't think LV will be dethroned. If AC didn't do it, it probably won't happen. So...
- The strip will always produce income
- out of state gaming provides income for LV, as national/International gaming companies are headquartered here.
- Out-of-state gaming generates a larger population of gamblers, many of whom will trek to the Mecca of Gambling in this country, Las Vegas.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
June 1st, 2011 at 4:23:43 AM
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Quote: Paigowdan.
1. ALL of the major Gaming companies who sell to out-of-state casino operators bring income here to Las Vegas: Shufflemaster, Galaxy Gaming, DEQ, Bally's, IGT, WMS, WSOP - you name it. I know the check I receive for EZ Pai Gow (spent and distributed here) comes from out-of-state buyers,
What percentage of the revenue coming into Vegas does your industry generate? All the companies you mentioned. How does that number compare to the gaming number?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 4:29:38 AM
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I don't know exactly, not out to ten decimal points.
But a lot of money comes into gaming companies, just as a lot of banking and investment money comes into New York from other states.
The majority of my table game's money is from out of state. All of my dealing salary is obviously from in-state sources: Residents and tourists playing here.
But a lot of money comes into gaming companies, just as a lot of banking and investment money comes into New York from other states.
The majority of my table game's money is from out of state. All of my dealing salary is obviously from in-state sources: Residents and tourists playing here.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
June 1st, 2011 at 5:19:11 AM
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Quote: Paigowdan
But a lot of money comes into gaming companies,
No different from the auto industry in Detroit, where brake shoes are made in TN, and headlights in NY and spark plug wires in OH. It all feeds the industry, just like what you do feeds a small part of Vegas. But the big cheese is people putting their money on the line within the city limits, and always will be.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 5:44:22 AM
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It's the opposite to Detroit in that respect, as if all the brake pads are made in LV, and sold in Ohio, TN, etc. The flow of the money is inwards to Vegas.
Problem for the big casinos though is that huge debt load. There may not be the choice to downsize until profitability, like you describe. The big two own too much of the strip with too many creditors and not enough fresh ideas. I hope parts get carved off them. It'll be good for all concerned. Maybe not for those taking write downs, but I have little sympathy for businessmen who make bad decisions on a huge scale.
Problem for the big casinos though is that huge debt load. There may not be the choice to downsize until profitability, like you describe. The big two own too much of the strip with too many creditors and not enough fresh ideas. I hope parts get carved off them. It'll be good for all concerned. Maybe not for those taking write downs, but I have little sympathy for businessmen who make bad decisions on a huge scale.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
June 1st, 2011 at 7:21:04 AM
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I always thought Vegas was the next Sodom and Gomorrah.
But if the Vegas economy continues to plummet, they can do what other cities have done: legalize gambling and set up casinos...
Seriously, for many people Vegas is still a more convenient destination for gambling. Consider my case. I can easily fly to these US cities: Vegas, LA, NYC (including Newark), SF, San Jose (wonder why?), Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Miami, Orlando and Chicago. San Diego, too, if you count direct flights to Tijuana. So, if I wanted to go gambling, the one destination that jumps out is Vegas. There's a direct flight, the town has plenty of cheap hotels, cheap food, lots of shopping, lots of entertainment, and tons of other things to do (many of them free) when I get tired of gambling.
So the question for me is not why I still go to Vegas, but rather why would I go anywhere else?
But if the Vegas economy continues to plummet, they can do what other cities have done: legalize gambling and set up casinos...
Seriously, for many people Vegas is still a more convenient destination for gambling. Consider my case. I can easily fly to these US cities: Vegas, LA, NYC (including Newark), SF, San Jose (wonder why?), Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Miami, Orlando and Chicago. San Diego, too, if you count direct flights to Tijuana. So, if I wanted to go gambling, the one destination that jumps out is Vegas. There's a direct flight, the town has plenty of cheap hotels, cheap food, lots of shopping, lots of entertainment, and tons of other things to do (many of them free) when I get tired of gambling.
So the question for me is not why I still go to Vegas, but rather why would I go anywhere else?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 1st, 2011 at 7:26:31 AM
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So you pose a question which really isn't a question because you already made up your mind to argue any counterpoint. What you have done here is make a statement and the title of the thread should have been: "Vegas is the next detroit and here is why." You are certainly entitled to that point of view but why encourage a discussion by posing it as a question if you aren't open to differing opinions?
June 1st, 2011 at 7:53:47 AM
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Quote: MineshaftSo you pose a question which really isn't a question because you already made up your mind to argue any counterpoint.
Quote: EvenBobVegas reminds me of the Palace of Versailles just before the French Revolution. The glitz and glamor and high living and huge parties when on right till the last, even as France was falling apart around them. Anybody could see what was coming, but they chose not to.
EvenBob
I am not trying to dispute your points, I just think they are bigger than Vegas or Detroit. Rampant real estate speculation in Spain which caused the highest jump in Europe has now resulted in the entire country being underwater. The economic miracle in Ireland now shows a country deep in the red. Iceland, who transformed a nation of independent fishermen into internet bankers crashed so hard that banks found themselves in debt to the tune of 12 times the entire countries GDP.
The thing is you don't have to go back in history as far as the Palace of Versailles. We watched the bubble in Japan explode less than 20 years ago. People are paying on 120 year mortgages that are still worth much more than the property. If they look at a mortgage sheet, the mortgage balance comes down to the present value of the property sometime after their life expectancy.
Lack of trust in the value of money, dangers of rampant speculation everywhere, no jobs, cronyism, life savings gone in a second, no accountability for this behavior by corporate executives. These are the things that in the past have led to world wars.
June 1st, 2011 at 8:07:50 AM
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First of all I don't know why someone who doesn't live here should be quoting what he thinks are facts from the internet about NV or LV. It may seem as though LV is a 1 horse town but it really is not. Look at most of the jobs lost in LV and you will find that not that many were in the casino industry. The vast majority were construction jobs. And yes those people have and maybe still are leaving town. Why? Because they go where the work is. I am not seeing anything near a mass exodus. Look at any casino in clark counties web site and you will see that they all have job openings. Some have lot's of openings. Also look at the trends for the last 6 months. Tourism and visitor is up, conventions are up, hell last weekend memorial day was busier than ever on the strip. Caesars was charging 500 a night for a standard room. There is no panic here yet!
June 1st, 2011 at 10:08:40 AM
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Quote: thlfFirst of all I don't know why someone who doesn't live here should be quoting what he thinks are facts from the internet about NV or LV. It may seem as though LV is a 1 horse town but it really is not. Look at most of the jobs lost in LV and you will find that not that many were in the casino industry. The vast majority were construction jobs. And yes those people have and maybe still are leaving town. Why? Because they go where the work is. I am not seeing anything near a mass exodus. Look at any casino in clark counties web site and you will see that they all have job openings. Some have lot's of openings. Also look at the trends for the last 6 months. Tourism and visitor is up, conventions are up, hell last weekend memorial day was busier than ever on the strip. Caesars was charging 500 a night for a standard room. There is no panic here yet!
This may be the sanest answer so far, IMHO. LV is plenty more than gaming, although it's undeniable gaming is its major attraction. Detroit isn't quite like that. Plus, LV is a sunbelt state, unlike MI. Automobiles and support are a lot different than hospitality and support.
I do think that real estate folks got somewhat overzealous and that there's a price being paid, but it's not like values are being effected by fiat like in 1986. Rather, it's the macroeconomy, unemployment, availability of credit, and uncertainty. When those things start abating (which won't be any time soon ... I guess 3 years if Obama loses and about 15 if he wins), LV will be just fine, all things being equal. That's not to say they can't screw themselves like Detroit did with unions or Illinois just did in passing a 66% top bracket tax rate, but that's not something that can really be predicted. Or, there may be another federal fiat but I don't think the political temper of the nation will put Democrats in another supermajority in my lifetime.
But things will be hard in LV for a while. There's lots of housing to be absorbed there and as everyone knows, we've just started the second of (at least) a double-dip in housing values ... remembering that housing led to the crash in 08-09, this does not bode well. Credit will stay tight, lowering house values as nothing can get appraised, which will force people to rent (so much for the American Dream), save for a down payment (meaning, that money will not be spent and, as discussed, new federal regulations and bank/ins co reserve requirements won't allow to be lent out, or move away.
Add to this inflationary pressure due to the debt and upward pressure on rates due to riskier markets, and you have a recipe for late 70s-era disaster, just one Middle East uprising away from, oh, $9 gas.
I was never a fan of Obama, and at least his election gave me hope that the Cowboys would win a Super Bowl (they only win under liberal Democrat presidents), but now, I become more and more convinced that any political support of Obama is tantamount to supporting economic ruin, Cowboys be damned.
June 1st, 2011 at 11:34:06 AM
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Just to comment even further on the being more than just gaming. Can anyone imagine how many people in Clark county are employed by Nellis or the contractors that support Nellis? It is mind boggling. Not to mention all of the Mfg's, IGT, Bally's, WMS, Konami, etc. How bout Zappos. Then there is the retail and restaurant sector. How about gov't. There are lots of opportunities still left in LV. If Yucca would have continued that would have been a lot more. I would be willing to bet that you could put a fairly large number on just the people employed in the landscape or pool maintenance businesses.
June 1st, 2011 at 1:57:36 PM
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Quote: MineshaftSo you pose a question which really isn't a question because you already made up your mind to argue any counterpoint.
You shoulnd't take anything said in an alarmist tone seriously, except things like "FIRE!" when there is a real fire.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 1st, 2011 at 3:18:01 PM
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June 1st, 2011 at 3:32:11 PM
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June 1st, 2011 at 4:54:23 PM
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And Nero fiddled as Rome burned. Anybody see the economic news today? Good news for Vegas? How do we spin 38,000 new jobs created last month in the WHOLE COUNTRY as good news for Vegas. Often outsiders can see whats going on in a situation far better then those in the middle of it. Thats why doctors never treat themselves. I love Vegas, have been going there most of my adult life. But if anybody thinks its just going to spring back to life and recover, with the economy getting worse by the day and 1/3 of the residents wanting to get the hell out but can't, denial isn't just a river in Egypt, as they say. Many people here are acting just like those factory workers in the Rust Belt, who worked at a shop for 30 years and to them, nothing looked wrong at all. They heard rumors, and things had slowed down a bit, but they still had a job, why worry. Then one day they went in and the doors were locked, never to reopen. The powers that be tried in vain to get the steel business back in Ameaica, but it was all in vain. Competition and the economy had killed them dead.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
June 1st, 2011 at 5:10:31 PM
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June 1st, 2011 at 5:13:18 PM
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It seems to me a whole vegas is not easy to kill. A portion fo the Strip, though, is a different matter.
North of the Wynncore lies a bit of a wasteland of vacant lots and old, failing hotels. The Sahara's going, if not gone. Come on, the temporary closure of an old hotel is not a good bet to stay temporarily closed, right? The closure, temporary or not, hurts the Riviera and Circus Circus. They may go at any time, IMO. The Stratosphere is also hurt, but it's a newer property with attractions of its own so who knows what'll happen to it. And the prospect for the vacant lots and half-built skeletons aren't good.
I'm speculating, nothing else but, and yet I'd say it's a good bet Vegas will emerge from the Great Recession with a Strip that ends at the Wynncore, whether the Strat makes it or not.
Of course there's the new growth mid-Strip, the Cosmopolitan and City Center. What's up with that?
North of the Wynncore lies a bit of a wasteland of vacant lots and old, failing hotels. The Sahara's going, if not gone. Come on, the temporary closure of an old hotel is not a good bet to stay temporarily closed, right? The closure, temporary or not, hurts the Riviera and Circus Circus. They may go at any time, IMO. The Stratosphere is also hurt, but it's a newer property with attractions of its own so who knows what'll happen to it. And the prospect for the vacant lots and half-built skeletons aren't good.
I'm speculating, nothing else but, and yet I'd say it's a good bet Vegas will emerge from the Great Recession with a Strip that ends at the Wynncore, whether the Strat makes it or not.
Of course there's the new growth mid-Strip, the Cosmopolitan and City Center. What's up with that?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 1st, 2011 at 6:27:25 PM
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Quote: thlfFirst of all I don't know why someone who doesn't live here should be quoting what he thinks are facts from the internet about NV or LV. It may seem as though LV is a 1 horse town but it really is not. Look at most of the jobs lost in LV and you will find that not that many were in the casino industry. The vast majority were construction jobs. And yes those people have and maybe still are leaving town. Why? Because they go where the work is. I am not seeing anything near a mass exodus. Look at any casino in clark counties web site and you will see that they all have job openings. Some have lot's of openings. Also look at the trends for the last 6 months. Tourism and visitor is up, conventions are up, hell last weekend memorial day was busier than ever on the strip. Caesars was charging 500 a night for a standard room. There is no panic here yet!
I did live there for years.
But population change can be fairly difficult to predict, and it's almost impossible to do so by driving around and looking at your friends. After the 1990 census, the professional said Nevada was projected to reach 2.3 million by the year 2025. Clearly the census bureau couldn't gage the impact of the Mirage Casino that had just opened up a few months earlier. The population reached 2.7 million by the 2010 census.
I think there will be a larger population by the 2020 census (or at least the same). A mass exodus would require a draw, as well as a push. It's not like conditions are wonderful in nearby cities.
In terms of representatives:
In 2010 3/435 and 4/435 of the population is 2.13 million and 2.84. Nevada with a population of 2.7 million was the smallest state to get a 4th representative.
In 2020 3/435 and 4/435 of the population will be 2.35 million and 3.14 (according to predictions). If Nevada still has a population of about 2.7 million than it could possibly lose that newly earned 4th representative. The formula is very complex (more than just looking at the halfway point) so it is very hard to predict.
The die off:
States in the Northeast and Midwest are going to have smaller populations by 2020. That's because an again white population will produce more deaths than births in those regions. There won't be a significant enough immigration (either domestic or international) to replace them.
June 2nd, 2011 at 5:18:51 AM
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Quote: gofaster87The problem with Vegas is that it over built, not just homes, but casinos. It will settle but these large casinos need to have a minimum number of people employed to conduct business which makes the overhead enormous, more than it should be. Construction will never be back like it was
Vegas was expanded on hope, like gold rush boomtowns. They were built with the thought the gold would never run out, it would last forever. Vegas was expanded with the thought the tourists would never stop coming, it would last forever. It was just done on a grander scale. Everybody says, oh, you should have seen the crowds last weekend! But they aren't spending money. They're ordering one cheap bottle of wine instead of two expensive ones. They're walking instead of taking a cab. They're losing $500 at the tables instead of $850. They're seeing a $40 a ticket show instead of a $75. They're not chasing their losses. They're staying 2 days instead of 3 1/2. They're not getting massages, or playing golf, or tipping like they used to, or ordering room service, or watching porn in their rooms for an extra fee. They're going to Vegas on a budget, much like people do when they go to Branson, MO. This has the men in the boardrooms wringing their hands in despair, and thinking of jumping off a 30 story balcony. Crowds mean nothing, its what the crowds are spending thats important. The balloon hasn't popped yet in Vegas. I think of it as a bright red big balloon, and as it gets bigger and bigger, its gets more and more faded. Now its barely pink anymore, soon it won't have any color left at all and, POP! Its anybodies guess what happens then. My wife and I have planned on retiring to Vegas for the last 20 years. If I'd bought a condo last year like we planned, it would now be worth less than I paid for it. Ditto if I buy one this year. Am I bitter? What do you think.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
