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sevencard2003
sevencard2003
Joined: Aug 16, 2011
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March 17th, 2023 at 4:25:23 AM permalink
axel what percent makes a loss rebate worth it? my bankroll is disappearing fast, im down now to barely about 35k although as u remember there were many times in my life 10 or more years ago when i had under 10k. of course then prices were a lot lower so it was still worth about 35k. reason i ask is i need to stop playing online blackjack when stuck and just want to make a big bet to get unstuck when i cant bet it live anywhere.

i get 10 percent every week on one site for being a platinum member (highest royalty level) but still with 1-3 percent bitcoin charges, etc buying or selling i mean, and other much smaller fees, some of which i get back, but i think 10 percent is definitely not enough to beat the house anymore. even if i were to structure my bets more wisely. i used to think that was plus ev to get 10 percent. how high must a rebate loss be to be plus ev?

im assuming online it would need to be much more than in a casino since online u cannot count.
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DRich
DRich
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March 17th, 2023 at 4:45:49 AM permalink
Quote: sevencard2003

axel what percent makes a loss rebate worth it? my bankroll is disappearing fast, im down now to barely about 35k although as u remember there were many times in my life 10 or more years ago when i had under 10k. of course then prices were a lot lower so it was still worth about 35k. reason i ask is i need to stop playing online blackjack when stuck and just want to make a big bet to get unstuck when i cant bet it live anywhere.

i get 10 percent every week on one site for being a platinum member (highest royalty level) but still with 1-3 percent bitcoin charges, etc buying or selling i mean, and other much smaller fees, some of which i get back, but i think 10 percent is definitely not enough to beat the house anymore. even if i were to structure my bets more wisely. i used to think that was plus ev to get 10 percent. how high must a rebate loss be to be plus ev?

im assuming online it would need to be much more than in a casino since online u cannot count.
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If you can get 10% a week that would be very good EV if you stick to low house edge games like BJ and baccarat..
Order from chaos
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 17th, 2023 at 5:58:58 AM permalink
Quote: sevencard2003

axel what percent makes a loss rebate worth it? my bankroll is disappearing fast, im down now to barely about 35k although as u remember there were many times in my life 10 or more years ago when i had under 10k. of course then prices were a lot lower so it was still worth about 35k. reason i ask is i need to stop playing online blackjack when stuck and just want to make a big bet to get unstuck when i cant bet it live anywhere.

i get 10 percent every week on one site for being a platinum member (highest royalty level) but still with 1-3 percent bitcoin charges, etc buying or selling i mean, and other much smaller fees, some of which i get back, but i think 10 percent is definitely not enough to beat the house anymore. even if i were to structure my bets more wisely. i used to think that was plus ev to get 10 percent. how high must a rebate loss be to be plus ev?

im assuming online it would need to be much more than in a casino since online u cannot count.
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"worth it" That's a subjective question. Assuming no large rollover, other restrictions, and it's a fair game it's absolutely +EV.
Making the biggest 1-time bet possible is "the best way" to approach this situation as far as EV and hourly go.
HOWEVER, your bankroll IS the most important thing, without that... you can't play and earn. Clearly betting too big puts your bankroll at risk. You're supposed to use some form of Kelly to figure that out.



1) Is this a licensed regulated casino?
2) What's the max bet?
3) How often can you do this?
4)When/How often does the rebate reset?
5) BJ rules?
6) What other games are available?
7) Are Live games available with the promotion?
8) Available on Sports?
9) Do they have a slot program, that might add to the value?
10) Do they send other offers or have other promotions and specials?

I don't know if your bankroll can support large enough bets to make any significant money.
Think how much you would make if you could only bet $500 per day, depending on the HA it would take you 100 days to make about 2k(someone can check my estimated guess).

FYI if you are playing these small loss rebates while playing multiple hands the HA is going to quickly eat up your EV, we are talking between 10 and 20 hands only before you are -EV. I suspect that's why you think it's not good. You're not doing well due to playing too many hands.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Mar 17, 2023
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sevencard2003
sevencard2003
Joined: Aug 16, 2011
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March 17th, 2023 at 7:42:43 AM permalink
if im supposed to only bet one huge bet (u need to make a minimum of 10 bets to qualify) no matter im getting no value out of it (which is why they let me have the offers). since its shuffling every hand, all i can do is flat martingale the bets. so its a shit ton of tiny bets and a lot of hands.

i cant tell u the name of the site, because they have contests about every 3 months and its so easy to win $50-1000 worth of bitcoin in the contest as few people do it, if even 10 more experts knew about it, id lose out on about $1000 a year from contest winnings. im always shocked how few people know about it.

of course even if i was only making $15 it takes not much time from my laptop in bed id still do it. it doesnt have to pay well.

to qualify for the rebate, u have to have played a lot in the past. so u wouldnt qualify. (but of course anyone can do the contests when they happen). i would assume sports bets are included, which i never make unless im using a free coupon.

theres no games excluded, (thats why i assume sports bets are good) but if u are up lifetime, used any bonus, or are ahead in the last 30 days u cant receive a rebate for your losses. of course i fail now on all of this. so i get the loss rebates. the nice thing is there is no rollover and it can be withdrawn immediately. u claim the rebates early monday morning and have up to 72 hours. u must of wagered a minimum of 0.01 BTC
sevencard2003.blogspot.com
sevencard2003
sevencard2003
Joined: Aug 16, 2011
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March 17th, 2023 at 7:46:17 AM permalink
that being said i need to stop playing anything but poker (which means i dont belong in laughlin regardless if i paid only $200 to get 15 nites of rooms.) barely got 36k left and i had 43k when i came to laughlin. about half was lost on the machine at the pioneer and the other half online. i should be getting a $200 or so online rebate come monday morning. i got my other rebate the monday that just passed.
sevencard2003.blogspot.com
Seedvalue
Seedvalue
Joined: Apr 5, 2022
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March 17th, 2023 at 9:06:06 AM permalink
Iím with you thatís how they should be treated.
Seedvalue
Seedvalue
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
March 17th, 2023 at 9:09:55 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.


yeah, I've read quite a few of KewlJ's posts at different places

in the last one I saw he stated his top bet was $1K

for me - his story is really hard to believe - that he can get away with this for so long

all of the big casinos have to know who he is - and they're going to let him keep beating up on them endlessly______?

I guess it's possible - but the Managers at these casinos are not stupid - it would seem they would have to be for his stories to all be true

he started posting here in 2012 - I wanna here about this from somebody else

it's now getting close to 50 years of casino experience with counters


.
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Comment removed by administrator for vulgarity.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Mar 22, 2023
Seedvalue
Seedvalue
Joined: Apr 5, 2022
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March 17th, 2023 at 9:12:37 AM permalink
Quote: sevencard2003

that being said i need to stop playing anything but poker (which means i dont belong in laughlin regardless if i paid only $200 to get 15 nites of rooms.) barely got 36k left and i had 43k when i came to laughlin. about half was lost on the machine at the pioneer and the other half online. i should be getting a $200 or so online rebate come monday morning. i got my other rebate the monday that just passed.
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There are Plenty of good mail spots for your play. The problem for you is the best places donít have a good poker scene.

I suggest playing a different game. One that you can trade hands with the dealer
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 17th, 2023 at 2:59:26 PM permalink
Quote: sevencard2003

if im supposed to only bet one huge bet (u need to make a minimum of 10 bets to qualify) no matter im getting no value out of it (which is why they let me have the offers). since its shuffling every hand, all i can do is flat martingale the bets. so its a shit ton of tiny bets and a lot of hands.

i cant tell u the name of the site, because they have contests about every 3 months and its so easy to win $50-1000 worth of bitcoin in the contest as few people do it, if even 10 more experts knew about it, id lose out on about $1000 a year from contest winnings. im always shocked how few people know about it.

of course even if i was only making $15 it takes not much time from my laptop in bed id still do it. it doesnt have to pay well.

to qualify for the rebate, u have to have played a lot in the past. so u wouldnt qualify. (but of course anyone can do the contests when they happen). i would assume sports bets are included, which i never make unless im using a free coupon.

theres no games excluded, (thats why i assume sports bets are good) but if u are up lifetime, used any bonus, or are ahead in the last 30 days u cant receive a rebate for your losses. of course i fail now on all of this. so i get the loss rebates. the nice thing is there is no rollover and it can be withdrawn immediately. u claim the rebates early monday morning and have up to 72 hours. u must of wagered a minimum of 0.01 BTC
link to original post



If they take BTC it's unregulated therefore there's always a chance of unfair games or non-payment. I wouldn't risk playing a 10% rebate under those circumstances. I want more meat on the bone when messaging around with unregulated online, even if they have a good reputation.

The fact that they make you place at least 10 bets, there's a reason for that. Do they have to be equal or greater bets to qualify? Could you bet $5 9 times and then jam 1k+ on the 10th bet? If not, you better do the math, as I already mentioned betting 10-20 units can easily cause a -EV situation. If I were you, I wouldn't mess with their 10%rebate unless there's something in conjunction with it that adds good value. Perhaps betting on a +EV odds boost bet or a +EV situation where you are also getting a rebate.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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