Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 110
December 15th, 2020 at 5:51:05 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

10-1 is a very tempting figure. May I change the wording a bit please. I will take 10-1 that Joe Biden will NOT be president of USA on 20 January 2021. I will wager up to US$100 wo win US$1,000. Any taker can wager from US$10-US$100. My max is US$100. I will keep this open up to 800pm EST 17 dec. 2020.



A tempting figure is not the same as +EV. I have taken $2500 from PI punters who wanted to take the losing side of an election that has been over for a month. I will collect another $1000 when all of the markets are closed and the bets are paid off. I just laid wagered 97 cents to win 3 cents on Dems winning WI. The best I can get down now is 94 cents to win 6 cents on Biden prevailing. I am willing to wait until Jan 6th. It was much more fun two days ago betting 85 cents to win 15.

I did take the R-Yes side of things this morning for technical reasons. I wagered about $1500 on various R-Yes markets expecting a rebound. The typical trade was to buy at 4 cents and sell at 5-6 cents. The best was to buy 12K shares of Miller DHS at 3 cents very early this morning for $360. I just finished selling it all for 5 cents. This was one tranche: "Sell Yes Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? Miller 1000 $0.05".

PI closed out most of the battleground states last night in favor of Biden. This released millions of dollars of profits and capital for the pro-Dem crowd to recycle into bets that will almost certainly pay out in March if there is no second Trump administration. Since Biden would never keep Stephen Miller on at DHS. they drove Miller's price from 9 cents to 2 cents in two hours. When I woke up at 5am, I bought Miller-Yes and several other current cabinet secretaries very cheap expecting a rebound after the redeployments of profits exhausted itself. It worked like a charm, but now I only have a little bit of Azar-Yes to sell off and I will be 90% Biden-Yes and 0% Trump-Yes.

Without the volume and predictability of these special situations, it would not be as easy to pick up this free money. It helps to keep emotion and personal politics out of your short-term tactical thinking on PI.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1172
December 15th, 2020 at 5:51:19 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

That is a slightly different bet. He certainly has a non zero chance of dying before 1/20/2021. He also might admit to being not healthy enough and would be happy with Kamala being President. That is quite different from Trump being inaugurated for a second term. Also, I can imagine a scenario where the inauguration is pushed back a day or two.

Haha, you are right. A lot of possibilities. But 10-1 is still a very very good odds for you guys. You could use your US$100 windfall to parlay.....
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 110
December 15th, 2020 at 5:55:26 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Haha, you are right. A lot of possibilities. But 10-1 is still a very very good odds for you guys. You could use your US$100 windfall to parlay.....



I would feel bad taking those odds from you. I have money deployed at 1 to 33 on Biden. It is an overlay. I completed almost 100 round-trip trades on PI today for a 30% profit. I already parlayed the profits into new trades. Waiting for Jan 20 for a sure $100 hardly seems worth the bother.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1172
December 15th, 2020 at 5:55:46 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Haha, you are right. A lot of possibilities. But 10-1 is still a very very good odds for you guys. You could use your US$100 windfall to parlay.....

Soopoo, I will give you a better deal. 9-1. You can take US$20, so next time we meet, we will have US$180 for a good lunch. Deal??????
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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  • Posts: 1172
December 15th, 2020 at 11:13:03 PM permalink
Some members said the presidential bets were paid out already. Biden won and Trump lost.

Question: What if eventually, Trump won. Will those Trump bettors ask for their money??
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 110
December 16th, 2020 at 3:16:17 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Some members said the presidential bets were paid out already. Biden won and Trump lost.

Question: What if eventually, Trump won. Will those Trump bettors ask for their money??



If the SF 49ers eventually win Super Bowl LIV, bettors will surely ask for their money. They should ask a lawyer whether they have a case, not us here at WoV.

When a winning horse later is later tested and found to be using an illegal drug, the bettors don't get their money back. Once the race is official, winning tickets are cashed out and it is over. Every betting site has this same rule. As long as they follow their own safe-harbor rules and don't recklessly pay out losers, they would probably win a law suit on results that are later overturned. Most PI markets are based on popular vote totals which have been officially certified. Few markets depend on who is in the Whitehouse on Jan 21. Biden could resign today or be proven to be under the age of 35. He still won the certified votes. PI is never going to pay out both sides.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1355
  • Posts: 22469
December 16th, 2020 at 4:20:00 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

If the SF 49ers eventually win Super Bowl LIV, bettors will surely ask for their money. They should ask a lawyer whether they have a case, not us here at WoV.



The sports books usually have a policy that how the Associated Press originally calls the winner of a game, or any other details, that is what they use to grade bets. If the AP changes their mind, the original scoring stands, even if it was wrong.

This affected me when the AP changed the number of kickoffs in an earlier Super Bowl. The question was did a punt after a safety count as a kickoff? I have a whole article about it on WoO.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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December 16th, 2020 at 5:43:07 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Soopoo, I will give you a better deal. 9-1. You can take US$20, so next time we meet, we will have US$180 for a good lunch. Deal??????



Deal! It will be a while to ‘pay off’ as the border is closed. To get to $180 we will have to order the large seafood tower at Western Door. But if I win (only $20) then it’s just burgers....
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 175
  • Posts: 9988
December 16th, 2020 at 7:11:44 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Some members said the presidential bets were paid out already. Biden won and Trump lost.

Question: What if eventually, Trump won. Will those Trump bettors ask for their money??



If trump were to get a second term at this point, American democracy and American currency would be worthless. I'd take your bet in an instant if I thought you understood how our political system works. Barring an actual Coup, a trump second term in 2021 is impossible.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7251
December 16th, 2020 at 8:17:35 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If trump were to get a second term at this point, American democracy and American currency would be worthless. I'd take your bet in an instant if I thought you understood how our political system works. Barring an actual Coup, a trump second term in 2021 is impossible.



I've wanted to make a post like this for a while.... but because of the prohibition on political statements I haven't.... I made the bet with speedy because I basically consider it us getting together and him just paying for lunch.

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