speedycrap
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December 14th, 2020 at 6:00:45 PM permalink
1-I just wonder whether the 2020 US presidential election result is official? Or is it still open for betting? If so when will the results be official?
2-Also, I wonder will any good standing and honorable member take my bet please? I will take TRUMP to win and US$100 will be my bet. What will be the odds please?
ThatDonGuy
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December 14th, 2020 at 6:37:56 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

1-I just wonder whether the 2020 US presidential election result is official? Or is it still open for betting? If so when will the results be official?
2-Also, I wonder will any good standing and honorable member take my bet please? I will take TRUMP to win and US$100 will be my bet. What will be the odds please?


The election isn't "official" until the electoral votes are counted in Congress on January 6. This is because the electoral votes can be challenged. If, when a particular state is called, at least one Representative and at least one Senator object, and there is a second set of votes from that state, then the House and Senate vote separately to decide which set to accept; if they split, then whichever set was certified by the state is accepted.
billryan
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December 14th, 2020 at 8:13:05 PM permalink
I have to believe that any Senator that engaged in such a travesty would be infamous, and disowned by the rest of the Senate. Why would a Senator want to be associated with a vote that was doomed from the beginning.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mental
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December 15th, 2020 at 3:39:14 AM permalink
Still an active market taking wagers on the Nov 3rd 2020 election:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

They did finally close some state election markets in contested states early this morning. And, of course, you can still wager on the Georgia Senate races.
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SOOPOO
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December 15th, 2020 at 6:36:38 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

1-I just wonder whether the 2020 US presidential election result is official? Or is it still open for betting? If so when will the results be official?
2-Also, I wonder will any good standing and honorable member take my bet please? I will take TRUMP to win and US$100 will be my bet. What will be the odds please?



Welcome back Speedy! As far as money, I would give 10-1 odds without blinking an eye! It's not that I don't trust you (Speedy politely bought me lunch when we met up!) but I just don't want to take your money! I hope the Wizard sees this.... I think he would take some action.

I have so much more to say about what would happen to the country if this were to happen, but it would obviously cross the line into political and I'm not interested enough to be suspended again!
FinsRule
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December 15th, 2020 at 7:29:02 AM permalink
Bovada has paid out already. Predictit has not. I'd take 1-10 in a heartbeat on Trump not being president on 1/21/21.
Mental
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December 15th, 2020 at 7:36:06 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Bovada has paid out already. Predictit has not. I'd take 1-10 in a heartbeat on Trump not being president on 1/21/21.



There were plenty of ways to bet at better odds than that yesterday at PI, even after the EC put Biden over the top.
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billryan
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December 15th, 2020 at 8:09:34 AM permalink
Someone will always find a way to shear the sheep.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
speedycrap
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December 15th, 2020 at 5:05:41 PM permalink
10-1 is a very tempting figure. May I change the wording a bit please. I will take 10-1 that Joe Biden will NOT be president of USA on 20 January 2021. I will wager up to US$100 wo win US$1,000. Any taker can wager from US$10-US$100. My max is US$100. I will keep this open up to 800pm EST 17 dec. 2020.
SOOPOO
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December 15th, 2020 at 5:35:16 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

10-1 is a very tempting figure. May I change the wording a bit please. I will take 10-1 that Joe Biden will NOT be president of USA on 20 January 2021. I will wager up to US$100 wo win US$1,000. Any taker can wager from US$10-US$100. My max is US$100. I will keep this open up to 800pm EST 17 dec. 2020.



That is a slightly different bet. He certainly has a non zero chance of dying before 1/20/2021. He also might admit to being not healthy enough and would be happy with Kamala being President. That is quite different from Trump being inaugurated for a second term. Also, I can imagine a scenario where the inauguration is pushed back a day or two.
Mental
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December 15th, 2020 at 5:51:05 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

10-1 is a very tempting figure. May I change the wording a bit please. I will take 10-1 that Joe Biden will NOT be president of USA on 20 January 2021. I will wager up to US$100 wo win US$1,000. Any taker can wager from US$10-US$100. My max is US$100. I will keep this open up to 800pm EST 17 dec. 2020.



A tempting figure is not the same as +EV. I have taken $2500 from PI punters who wanted to take the losing side of an election that has been over for a month. I will collect another $1000 when all of the markets are closed and the bets are paid off. I just laid wagered 97 cents to win 3 cents on Dems winning WI. The best I can get down now is 94 cents to win 6 cents on Biden prevailing. I am willing to wait until Jan 6th. It was much more fun two days ago betting 85 cents to win 15.

I did take the R-Yes side of things this morning for technical reasons. I wagered about $1500 on various R-Yes markets expecting a rebound. The typical trade was to buy at 4 cents and sell at 5-6 cents. The best was to buy 12K shares of Miller DHS at 3 cents very early this morning for $360. I just finished selling it all for 5 cents. This was one tranche: "Sell Yes Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? Miller 1000 $0.05".

PI closed out most of the battleground states last night in favor of Biden. This released millions of dollars of profits and capital for the pro-Dem crowd to recycle into bets that will almost certainly pay out in March if there is no second Trump administration. Since Biden would never keep Stephen Miller on at DHS. they drove Miller's price from 9 cents to 2 cents in two hours. When I woke up at 5am, I bought Miller-Yes and several other current cabinet secretaries very cheap expecting a rebound after the redeployments of profits exhausted itself. It worked like a charm, but now I only have a little bit of Azar-Yes to sell off and I will be 90% Biden-Yes and 0% Trump-Yes.

Without the volume and predictability of these special situations, it would not be as easy to pick up this free money. It helps to keep emotion and personal politics out of your short-term tactical thinking on PI.
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speedycrap
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December 15th, 2020 at 5:51:19 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

That is a slightly different bet. He certainly has a non zero chance of dying before 1/20/2021. He also might admit to being not healthy enough and would be happy with Kamala being President. That is quite different from Trump being inaugurated for a second term. Also, I can imagine a scenario where the inauguration is pushed back a day or two.

Haha, you are right. A lot of possibilities. But 10-1 is still a very very good odds for you guys. You could use your US$100 windfall to parlay.....
Mental
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December 15th, 2020 at 5:55:26 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Haha, you are right. A lot of possibilities. But 10-1 is still a very very good odds for you guys. You could use your US$100 windfall to parlay.....



I would feel bad taking those odds from you. I have money deployed at 1 to 33 on Biden. It is an overlay. I completed almost 100 round-trip trades on PI today for a 30% profit. I already parlayed the profits into new trades. Waiting for Jan 20 for a sure $100 hardly seems worth the bother.
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speedycrap
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December 15th, 2020 at 5:55:46 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Haha, you are right. A lot of possibilities. But 10-1 is still a very very good odds for you guys. You could use your US$100 windfall to parlay.....

Soopoo, I will give you a better deal. 9-1. You can take US$20, so next time we meet, we will have US$180 for a good lunch. Deal??????
speedycrap
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December 15th, 2020 at 11:13:03 PM permalink
Some members said the presidential bets were paid out already. Biden won and Trump lost.

Question: What if eventually, Trump won. Will those Trump bettors ask for their money??
Mental
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December 16th, 2020 at 3:16:17 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Some members said the presidential bets were paid out already. Biden won and Trump lost.

Question: What if eventually, Trump won. Will those Trump bettors ask for their money??



If the SF 49ers eventually win Super Bowl LIV, bettors will surely ask for their money. They should ask a lawyer whether they have a case, not us here at WoV.

When a winning horse later is later tested and found to be using an illegal drug, the bettors don't get their money back. Once the race is official, winning tickets are cashed out and it is over. Every betting site has this same rule. As long as they follow their own safe-harbor rules and don't recklessly pay out losers, they would probably win a law suit on results that are later overturned. Most PI markets are based on popular vote totals which have been officially certified. Few markets depend on who is in the Whitehouse on Jan 21. Biden could resign today or be proven to be under the age of 35. He still won the certified votes. PI is never going to pay out both sides.
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Wizard
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December 16th, 2020 at 4:20:00 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

If the SF 49ers eventually win Super Bowl LIV, bettors will surely ask for their money. They should ask a lawyer whether they have a case, not us here at WoV.



The sports books usually have a policy that how the Associated Press originally calls the winner of a game, or any other details, that is what they use to grade bets. If the AP changes their mind, the original scoring stands, even if it was wrong.

This affected me when the AP changed the number of kickoffs in an earlier Super Bowl. The question was did a punt after a safety count as a kickoff? I have a whole article about it on WoO.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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December 16th, 2020 at 5:43:07 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Soopoo, I will give you a better deal. 9-1. You can take US$20, so next time we meet, we will have US$180 for a good lunch. Deal??????



Deal! It will be a while to Ďpay offí as the border is closed. To get to $180 we will have to order the large seafood tower at Western Door. But if I win (only $20) then itís just burgers....
billryan
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December 16th, 2020 at 7:11:44 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Some members said the presidential bets were paid out already. Biden won and Trump lost.

Question: What if eventually, Trump won. Will those Trump bettors ask for their money??



If trump were to get a second term at this point, American democracy and American currency would be worthless. I'd take your bet in an instant if I thought you understood how our political system works. Barring an actual Coup, a trump second term in 2021 is impossible.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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December 16th, 2020 at 8:17:35 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If trump were to get a second term at this point, American democracy and American currency would be worthless. I'd take your bet in an instant if I thought you understood how our political system works. Barring an actual Coup, a trump second term in 2021 is impossible.



I've wanted to make a post like this for a while.... but because of the prohibition on political statements I haven't.... I made the bet with speedy because I basically consider it us getting together and him just paying for lunch.
Wizard
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December 16th, 2020 at 8:59:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If trump were to get a second term at this point, American democracy and American currency would be worthless.



Warning -- Political statement.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
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December 16th, 2020 at 9:09:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Warning -- Political statement.




Can you explain how a thread you made inviting people to a trump rally and then discussed it at length wasn't political but stating what happens if we experience a coup is?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Wizard
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December 16th, 2020 at 9:34:26 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Can you explain how a thread you made inviting people to a trump rally and then discussed it at length wasn't political but stating what happens if we experience a coup is?



The rules were changed since then to not allow political statements.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
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December 16th, 2020 at 9:43:11 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Deal! It will be a while to Ďpay offí as the border is closed. To get to $180 we will have to order the large seafood tower at Western Door. But if I win (only $20) then itís just burgers....

Deal> Mt US$20 against your US$180. Just wait for 20 January 2021 for results. I love the excitement.
speedycrap
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December 16th, 2020 at 9:50:27 PM permalink
To Wizard: I understand NO POLITICS in this forum. But, if the 2020 Presidential election takes a sudden turn. Would you consider open up for discussion please?
Wizard
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December 16th, 2020 at 9:51:57 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

To Wizard: I understand NO POLITICS in this forum. But, if the 2020 Presidential election takes a sudden turn. Would you consider open up for discussion please?



No, other than to the extent it would affect bets on the election.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
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December 16th, 2020 at 10:20:26 PM permalink
Fair enough
SOOPOO
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December 17th, 2020 at 5:27:11 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

To Wizard: I understand NO POLITICS in this forum. But, if the 2020 Presidential election takes a sudden turn. Would you consider open up for discussion please?



Many of the same posters discuss the election on diversitytomorrow.com. Itís free to join.
billryan
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December 17th, 2020 at 8:17:38 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The rules were changed since then to not allow political statements.




In your opinion, has that change done anything to improve the forum? Is this forum better off since you made the change?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
speedycrap
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December 17th, 2020 at 8:41:55 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Many of the same posters discuss the election on diversitytomorrow.com. Itís free to join.

Thanks.
Wizard
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December 17th, 2020 at 9:30:45 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In your opinion, has that change done anything to improve the forum? Is this forum better off since you made the change?



Yes.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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December 17th, 2020 at 10:06:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In your opinion, has that change done anything to improve the forum? Is this forum better off since you made the change?



I don'tknow if it is any better but it sure isn't getting worse like it was with the political stuff.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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December 17th, 2020 at 10:32:04 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don'tknow if it is any better but it sure isn't getting worse like it was with the political stuff.


Iím not trying to be hyper-critical of WOV by saying this, but I think most would agree that the forum isnít nearly as good as it was 2014-2018.

A lot of really great posters left either in mass exodus, or slowly not visiting as much over time.

I have been posting in various tech/hobby/game forums since 2000 or so. Every forum I have ever loved seems to have 3-5 golden years before it goes on the decline for one reason or another.
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Dec 17, 2020
teliot
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December 17th, 2020 at 11:09:57 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Iím not trying to be hyper-critical of WOV by saying this, but I think most would agree that the forum isnít nearly as good as it was 2014-2018.

A lot of really great posters left either in mass exodus, or slowly not visiting as much over time.

I have been posting in various tech/hobby/game forums since 2000 or so. Every forum I have ever loved seems to have a 3-5 golden years before it goes on the decline for one reason or another.

I ran cardcounter.com which had a forum for about 3 years. I was inundated with anti-semitism, people hacking the code, trolling, stalking, and everything else before I threw in the towel.

The ideal forum owner has both experience as an army sergeant and experience as a kindergarten teacher. I give Mike great admiration for surviving the pain for this long while keeping the site on track with its original mission.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Wizard
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December 17th, 2020 at 4:28:22 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I give Mike great admiration for surviving the pain for this long while keeping the site on track with its original mission.



Thank you Eliot!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
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December 19th, 2020 at 12:01:18 AM permalink
Anymore taker?
Wizard
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January 10th, 2021 at 9:29:33 PM permalink
BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
speedycrap
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January 10th, 2021 at 10:22:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.

I dont have access to betfair or william hill. Fell bad to miss the opportunity. But I suggest you to jump on it.

Since Mike/you bring it up. Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.
Mental
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January 11th, 2021 at 5:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.


It might be suboptimal to bet on something as uncertain as this when you can bet against Trump's cabinet members staying in office on the 21st. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 This is a 99.99% sure thing to bet on No at 92 cents to win 7.2 cents after fees or almost 13 to 1. There is a $850 cap on each contract, but there are so many contracts available.

Taking withdrawal fees into account, you need to recycle your profits into another bet to improve the profit after fees. After Feb 15th, this market probably won't be at 92 cents: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1

I am amazed how often I can bet on arbitrage or sure things. I plan on keeping my winning on the site after these markets close.
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SOOPOO
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January 11th, 2021 at 6:21:12 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.


It might be suboptimal to bet on something as uncertain as this when you can bet against Trump's cabinet members staying in office on the 21st. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 This is a 99.99% sure thing to bet on No at 92 cents to win 7.2 cents after fees or almost 13 to 1. There is a $850 cap on each contract, but there are so many contracts available.

Taking withdrawal fees into account, you need to recycle your profits into another bet to improve the profit after fees. After Feb 15th, this market probably won't be at 92 cents: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1

I am amazed how often I can bet on arbitrage or sure things. I plan on keeping my winning on the site after these markets close.



Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.
ThatDonGuy
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January 11th, 2021 at 6:44:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.


I checked out the site, and it doesn't specify the parameters of the bet - i.e. how is "leave" defined. Does somebody invoking the 25th Amendment count? What if he attempts to return, as is allowed under the amendment?

Quote: SOOPOO

Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.


I think the law is, you can make bets, but you can't use a credit card. I am under the impression that some companies use some shell company name for the charges so that the credit card companies (and, more importantly, the government) don't notice.

If you are referring to betting specifically on "political" events like this, then these are as legal as betting on "how long will the national anthem at the next Super Bowl last." States that allow sports betting don't allow bets like this, except technically Nevada can authorize it as it's not "betting on an election," but there are no such restrictions on foreign sites.
Mental
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January 11th, 2021 at 7:52:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
Quote:

Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, eliminating the risk of prosecution for illegal online gambling. In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question. These restrictions are modeled after the Iowa Electronic Markets, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets.



Whatever you do, always read the full rules for every question before you wager. Also, be aware you are trading against bots. Stick with the low-risk stuff.
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Mental
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January 11th, 2021 at 8:26:46 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I think the law is, you can make bets, but you can't use a credit card.


I used a credit card for $11K of deposits on PredictIt from the US.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term
The Rules
Donald Trump shall be president of the United States until conclusion of the four-year term to which he was elected in 2016. Temporary incapacity resulting in the temporary transfer of authority to an acting president shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

PredictItís decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictItís sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: 01/20/2021 12:00 PM (ET)
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ams288
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January 11th, 2021 at 12:25:19 PM permalink


Apparently this is the work of ďa disgruntled State Dept. staffer.Ē
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
speedycrap
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January 11th, 2021 at 3:46:30 PM permalink
Quote: ams288



Apparently this is the work of ďa disgruntled State Dept. staffer.Ē

I watched this on YOUTUBE. 2020 was unforgettable in a negative way. And I think 2021 will be even more unforgettable for the American people. God bless America.
rsactuary
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January 11th, 2021 at 4:04:41 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

[ Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.



I would bet my entire life savings on this.
speedycrap
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January 11th, 2021 at 4:18:48 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Quote: speedycrap

[ Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.



I would bet my entire life savings on this.

What odds are you offering now please?
rsactuary
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January 11th, 2021 at 4:41:52 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: speedycrap

[ Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.



I would bet my entire life savings on this.

What odds are you offering now please?



I'm going to save you $80. The inauguration is on Jan 20th, not the 24th. You're welcome.
speedycrap
speedycrap
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January 11th, 2021 at 4:50:59 PM permalink
I am sorry. My bad. Then make it 20 Jan 2021 No Biden Inauguration. Still interested?? I have US$80 ready and available.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 11th, 2021 at 4:53:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.



BetFair does not take US customers, which is the important thing.

I would argue a US citizen is breaking no law if you uses Bitcoin to move money around and bets on whatever he likes. The problem is using US banks to move money around for purposes of Internet gambling. Most European sports books and casinos respect US laws so don't allow us as customers.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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