You Can't Quit When You're Ahead
I would think if you traveled from New York to Las Vegas as I do; then go to a casino, win your first hand of blackjack or your first roll with the dice or your first slot pull does that mean you are now finished? You are indeed ahead. Should you check out of the hotel and go home? Or just lounge by the pool, have meals, see a show or two, then head home?
Okay, say you go to the casino the next day and again win your first bet. Head home? Go to the pool, eat a meal, see a show?
The dictum “quit while you are ahead” has little relationship to casino gambling. I would think most gamblers give themselves a set period of time (quite flexible too) or a certain number of decisions (hazily sensed) or a “Let me play until I drop” or some such. None of them gives himself the one and done “I’m outta here!” if I win.
Okay, say you lose your first hand, then win two in a row and now you are ahead? Out the door?
What if you never get ahead? Do you keep playing until you lose all your casino money, then your bank accounts, your 401K, the house, your miserable daughter Lulu’s college fund? If you aren’t ahead must you stay the course, that course being your utter destruction? Obviously not.
Language can often sound right but be misleading. Quit while you’re ahead? I think not. You might quit at a certain point and you might be ahead at that point. Or you might quit at a certain point and you might be behind at that point. It might be that you are ahead after 55 minutes and you intended to play one hour but say to yourself, “I think I’ll quit because I am ahead.” But in such a different situation you might also say after 55 minutes, “I’m only a little behind, let me call it a session.”
I doubt there are many gamblers who would quit when they are ahead right off the bat.
Hopefully your point is that quitting while ahead has nothing to do with advantage play. Leaving while ahead is meaningless because having an actual edge implies that you will be ahead more, given that the walk is upwards. Without an edge, the walk is downward, no matter the "time" between walks. The only instance I know where this is a viable advantage strategy is when playing against loss rebates, in which case there are both win-stopping points and loss-stopping points that depend on game/bankroll/wager/rebate. It may also be a strategy for some cheaters.Quote: FrankScoblete.
Honestly Frank, and please correct me, your post sounds like a copy/paste from a book or article you wrote. Its altruistic tone belies its paucity of content.
If it is for profit, then you should treat it like work. Set a daily goal, and once you hit it, stop. If it takes two minutes, then that's how long you worked that day.
If it is for fun, then you set a time limit and a stop loss limit. You stop at a certain time, or at whatever amount you've allocated for your entertainment budget. Winning and losing are relevant to how much fun you're having, but not an important consideration regarding stopping point, other than the stop loss limit.
Quote: AlanMendelsonit's now my money
I think it does cement the idea you need to consider it your money, a concept escaping many players ... many like to think, "I can go for it now, it's house money!"
As a method to 'beat the house' it is worthless, however.
On the fairly rare occasions that I make a lot of money at craps on one shooter, I typically "quit" / cash out immediately after the hot roll finishes; same thing with a big hit at slots.
The thing is, I don't quit for the day, or the trip: I just close out that session, take a break, and fire up again later.
Probably just a superstitious form of money management.
Quote: MrVThe operative word here is "quit:" in what context?
On the fairly rare occasions that I make a lot of money at craps on one shooter, I typically "quit" / cash out immediately after the hot roll finishes; same thing with a big hit at slots.
The thing is, I don't quit for the day, or the trip: I just close out that session, take a break, and fire up again later.
Probably just a superstitious form of money management.
It's a tough question, and it would be even tougher to answer in the context of someone staying there. For me, "Quitting," simply occurs whenever I leave the casino. I've had two handpays, lifetime, from Slot Machines, and in both of those cases, I kept going until the handpay got there. My first handpay was at a $5.00 Credit machine, though, so I switched machines and told them where they could find me.
If I have a really good hit, I'll usually play exactly down to the nearest multiple of something (depending on what the Max Bet is at whatever I am playing...or depending on what I am betting at Video Keno---usually less than Max---if it makes no difference with the ER) of usually $25, $50 or $100. If I'm playing VK for ultra-low stakes, it might even be a multiple of $5.00 or $1.00!
My win goal is the same as my multiple, but I see no reason to strictly limit my win, I'll play $0.01/Credit, 1 Line, 1 Credit per Line, if I have $200.01 on my ticket and am playing down to $200.00 or up to $225.00, for example.
I don't stick as strictly to the multiple thing for Table Games, because I typically get tired of playing before I would hit any kind of multiple, anyway. I should also mention that the multiple would often necessitate not taking the Max Odds at Craps, so no thanks on that. Tips are also a consideration, since it is strictly for entertainment, I tip the dealers (no bragging, just being honest) EXTREMELY well for my level of play, so there are a number of times I'd have been a good measure ahead and have left neither up or down, after tips.
In the event of a great run at Craps, and after that shooter Sevens-Out, I'll give the next shooter a chance and keep playing if he wins the first one. Basically, I keep playing until the first new shooter loses his first hand, then I'm done.
Quote: MrVProbably just a superstitious form of money management.
Superstition, MrV? I think not. And I think that to relegate "qutting while ahead" to superstitious status is to demean its inherent importance.
Look, we all are very well aware that the house edge affects each and every one of our bets, regardless of the timing of their placements.
The house edge is there. Get past it. And part of getting past it is LEARNING HOW TO WIN. How to accept a win. Any win.
Does that, alone, put more money into our pockets, somehow negating the house edge? Nope, sorry. Their edge remains.
BUUUTTTT, what is to be said of our MENTALITY? Our frames of mind.
Quitting while ahead, leaving with more chips than you bought-in for, WINNING, is a learnt art. It's as much a "positive reinforcement" as Pavlov's dog ever dealt with.
Winning is a feeling. A success story. A story that repeats itself time and time again. And always....ALWAYS....with a happy ending. Now, who in this wide wide world of gambling does not seek that?
But, you've got to train yourself to do it. Why? Because, my friends, it doesn't come nearly as naturally as GREED does.
Winning is a frame of mind. A mentality. An attitude. An attitude that ensures the player that, at the very least, he's doing all he can to enable himself to "come out ahead" at this session.
Makes no nevermind that he's got to do it all over again at his next session. He's used to it, and expects it. It's now become, for him, a habit. A rather addictive habit.
Now, again, the house edge is there...today when I bet, tomorrow when I bet, and the day after that.
But the house edge doesn't walk with me to cashier's cage when I've got more chips in my pocket than I bought-in for. Rather, it's only me and my "right frame of mind", my "winning mentality", my "positive reinforcement", all pointing out to me as to JUST HOW RIGHT I AM ABOUT MY APPROACH.
The house edge is math. Leave it at the table where it belongs. Quitting while you're ahead will put the dollars in your pocket, where it belongs.
the win is never big enough for me.
Most of the responses are right where I thought they would be. Everyone has criteria for when to quit (while ahead or not) but no one would leave after a single win on the very first bet. So "quit while you're ahead" needs modification.
So the actual saying should be what?
Quote: FrankScobleteLanguage can often sound right but be misleading.
This one phrase says it all. Great post. I'm sure several people will miss the point, and will still try to debate you on "quitting while ahead".
Quote: FrankScobleteWould any of you actually quit if you won the very first bet?
Most of the responses are right where I thought they would be. Everyone has criteria for when to quit (while ahead or not) but no one would leave after a single win on the very first bet. So "quit while you're ahead" needs modification.
So the actual saying should be what?
It depends on how big the first bet was!
If your goal is simply to double your bankroll, for example, and you were unconcerned with losing it, Pass Line, all of it.
I've quit on zero bets, technically. I've run through Free Play and rolled out on more than one occasion.
Finally, and embarrassingly, how I play Craps now...in the rare event I go. I put $1 on the Fire Bet for each new shooter until the dice come to me, and then if I lose my first hand (excluding a Crap on the CO), I'm gone. That's quitting criteria, though. If I win my first one, a point having been established, then I keep going and will start betting the PL on other shooters. The only exception is if I had a sufficient amount of CO winners to cover the amount of the first loss, a point having been established, then I do the $1.00 FB and repeat process.
Quote: FrankScobleteSo the actual saying should be what?
"Quit while you're happy"
stop loss. Period. If you don't have these, don't
worry about it, you're what the bosses used to
call 'casino oriented'. That was their code name
for 'loser'.
Quote: EvenBobYou quit when you reach your win goal or your
stop loss. Period. If you don't have these, don't
worry about it, you're what the bosses used to
call 'casino oriented'. That was their code name
for 'loser'.
My point is that while we might perceive walking away as quitting, the odds don't understand that you have altered your location and the time between bets, perhaps that you converted your chips to cash and then to the chips of a different casino. So unless you quit completely when you are ahead, you haven't actually quit.
Quote: EvenBobYou quit when you reach your win goal or your
stop loss. Period.
Absolutely terrible advice. Period.
Your quitting points can never, ever be "written in stone". We're not dealing with an "exact science" here; we are, when all is said and done, gambling.
And, as gamblers, we are all subject to certain variances, both personal- and bet selection-wise.
Moreover, as humans, we are subject to basic mood swings and other "intuitive" feelings.
All of that calls for more flexibility, not more rigidity, in our play.
After a little while, I take the "temperature" of the current session and, thereby, evaluate just how it appears to be playing out for me. Good? Bad? Difficult? Easy?
Are there certain thresholds that appear as my "tops" for this session? (You know what I mean....for example, say, every time I'm up 4 units, I seem to fall back to half that amount.)
Or, I'm in the midst of a difficult session, and I've recouped all or most of it, and I'm pleased to have avoided a larger loss. I feel as if I've already faced the dragon at this session, and I'm happy to have survived relatively safely.
There exists countless scenarios and countless reasons that ALL point to having rather flexible win goals and stop-loss points.
To me, it's one of our most important player advantages.....our ability to exit a session at the time that we feel it's IN OUR BEST INTEREST to do so.
Quote: gr8playerAbsolutely terrible advice. Period.
How would you know. With every post you just dig
a deeper hole into 'whaaaa' gambling and how a
true whaaaaa player plays...
Quote: FrankScobleteWould any of you actually quit if you won the very first bet?
@ craps?
No.
But were I fortunate enough to hit a big jackpot on my favorite high limit slot, IGT's Double 3X 4X 5X Pay, I most certainly WOULD quit then and never play it again.
I am only playing it until it hits, then GAME OVER.
Someday ...
Quote: nezbityes if my plan was all in on first hand
Yeah, that's the problem with the "qutting after winning the first hand" philososphy: the bet size. It lends itself, by its very nature, to induce bets of a larger proportion than we might actually be comfortable with, and that, my friends, can never, ever be a good thing.
Gambling is a "grind". At least, any sort of successful gambling is.
We grind it out. Those that are proficient at it know that. And they accept it.
Time, Bet Selection, Bankroll, Unit Sizes, Win Goals, Loss Limits are all part and parcel of the session grind. At some point or another in each session, one (or, usually, more than one) of those factors will be determinate in it's eventual fate. So, the thing is: we can never, ever give up absolute control of each of those factors.
From there, it's but a short step to the grind. And, more often than not, a successful one, at that.
I wish it for all of you.
If I'm playing for fun, then I'll quit when I'm either completely face-down drunk, or lose the $20 I was playing with to get the booze...
Quote: AlanMendelsonTim... could you break down how you figure the 2% edge? How much from the game plus the add-ons? Thanks.
I am looking for someone to break down the variances and give me some info on JANUGGET in sparks Nevada as I recently relocated to that area from Ark. and am looking for same info "the breakdown on how the 2% edge is obtained and can something as this be done @ JANUGGET. I have heard soem from the locals however, I would like to hear from someone that is not local. I am looking for the best bang for my buck here. Perhaps someone could pm me and give me insight on what areas to play @JANUGGET if any one may have that info. I am into VP most but do dabble in some craps. I prefer VP. I am looking forward to that 2% edge.
Quote: centuryI am looking for someone to break down the variances and give me some info on JANUGGET in sparks Nevada as I recently relocated to that area from Ark. and am looking for same info "the breakdown on how the 2% edge is obtained and can something as this be done @ JANUGGET. I have heard soem from the locals however, I would like to hear from someone that is not local. I am looking for the best bang for my buck here. Perhaps someone could pm me and give me insight on what areas to play @JANUGGET if any one may have that info. I am into VP most but do dabble in some craps. I prefer VP. I am looking forward to that 2% edge.
Honestly when I saw akaTIMSPEED post that 2% figure I thought it was a joke. A 2% advantage at VP is huge, even if you include the value of comps in the equation.
Quote: AcesAndEightsHonestly when I saw akaTIMSPEED post that 2% figure I thought it was a joke. A 2% advantage at VP is huge, even if you include the value of comps in the equation.
It's pretty high up there but not impossible with the right promotion/cashback/bounceback.
Quote: djatcIt's pretty high up there but not impossible with the right promotion/cashback/bounceback.
Can you break down one of these deals for me? And where I might find it?
Quote: AlanMendelsonCan you break down one of these deals for me? And where I might find it?
I have never come across 2% or higher edges myself but I can imagine it's possible with a high returning game that has full player's club points (such as NSUD), the cashback itself (multipliers will be crucial), bounceback (highest tier), gift card prizes, and equity in drawings.
Or you could find out where Bob Dancer's been playing. On the VPfree2 forums he was talking about an $800/hr opportunity on a 9/6DDB machine.
Okay.
Quote: AlanMendelsonInteresting how I get challenged for talking about how I watched a random shooter throw 18 yos in a row, but there is a "pass" on a 2% edge and $800 an hour VP play.
Okay.
Casinos can be stupid much, much more often than 1 in 39 sextillion occurrences.
For example, Caesars Palace put in FPDW in April 2007 for a max bet of $300/hand, thats $2280/hr for someone who can play flawlessly at 1000 hands/hr and can afford it of course like Richard Brodie of Microsoft fame.
http://qlbrodie.blogspot.com/2007/04/lucky-me.html
Quote: AlanMendelsonInteresting how I get challenged for talking about how I watched a random shooter throw 18 yos in a row, but there is a "pass" on a 2% edge and $800 an hour VP play.
Okay.
Give it some time, the people will rise up and DEMAND an explanation lol. Or that craps players are really into debunking probability more then video poker players...
Quote: FrankScobleteWould any of you actually quit if you won the very first bet? ... So the actual saying should be what?
No, but sometimes I wish I had! A couple of months ago, decided to play to a 100-coin bonus coupon for a natural quad (5's thru T's only). Sat down with 2 or 3 bills at a $1 DDB 9/6 with a progressive on the Royal, and first hand was 3's with a kicker for $800. Even after pausing for some time, I continued to play, as "I still had the coupon!" A couple of quads in faces later, I'm up over $1100. As a State worker (excuse me, State employee - we don't work!), that's a lot of scratch to me. So, I cashed out, paused some more, then proceeded to play again, one bill at a time. No more quads... no more cash... but "I still have that coupon!" No, I didn't go pull cash. So, I was thinking the saying should be
"Take a pause for the cause."
...but that doesn't always work either! At least not in my case - but I have been paying more attention to ROR!
Quote: AlanMendelsonInteresting how I get challenged for talking about how I watched a random shooter throw 18 yos in a row, but there is a "pass" on a 2% edge and $800 an hour VP play.
A VP progressive with a solid base game and a meter with a decent rate (or better yet, a set of meters!) can give you 2% plays if the meter(s) get high enough. ...Or to a medium level with a decent points multiplier.
Also, playing a must-hit-by Mystery Progressive at the optimal playing point gives you an edge equal to the hold of the base game plus the meter rise percent. If you are playing a game with a 1% meter, then as long as the base game has at least a 1% hold (most of the games will) and you play at or above the target point, you have a 2% or greater play until the meter is hit.
Also, sniping Ultimate X or Bonus Hand Triple-Play can be upwards of 100% (that's player's edge, not return!)
Quote: Mission146If I have a really good hit, I'll usually play exactly down to the nearest multiple of something (depending on what the Max Bet is at whatever I am playing...or depending on what I am betting at Video Keno---usually less than Max---if it makes no difference with the ER) of usually $25, $50 or $100. If I'm playing VK for ultra-low stakes, it might even be a multiple of $5.00 or $1.00!
My gf and I usually do the same thing - it's just nice to cash out a round number for some reason!
Question: Mission 146, what VK have you found, if any, where the ER improves with max coin?
SlotWorld Casino in Carson City had some old dollar machines at one of the bars that had a keno paytable that improved slightly when you bet 10 coins, but those machines have long since been replaced by some HD screens with All-Star menus (or something similar).
Quote: camapl
A VP progressive with a solid base game and a meter with a decent rate (or better yet, a set of meters!) can give you 2% plays if the meter(s) get high enough. ...Or to a medium level with a decent points multiplier.
Also, playing a must-hit-by Mystery Progressive at the optimal playing point gives you an edge equal to the hold of the base game plus the meter rise percent. If you are playing a game with a 1% meter, then as long as the base game has at least a 1% hold (most of the games will) and you play at or above the target point, you have a 2% or greater play until the meter is hit.
Also, sniping Ultimate X or Bonus Hand Triple-Play can be upwards of 100% (that's player's edge, not return!)
A lot of "ifs" there.
Quote: camaplMy gf and I usually do the same thing - it's just nice to cash out a round number for some reason!
Question: Mission 146, what VK have you found, if any, where the ER improves with max coin?
SlotWorld Casino in Carson City had some old dollar machines at one of the bars that had a keno paytable that improved slightly when you bet 10 coins, but those machines have long since been replaced by some HD screens with All-Star menus (or something similar).
I'm pretty big on round numbers!
To answer your VK question, for one, the VK games that The Wizard has recently spent considerable time analyzing improve with the amount of coin bet. To speak personally, some of the games on the Spielo machines have a Progressive for a certain number of hits in a certain number of picks with a bet of $0.50-$2.00, or sometimes, $0.50-$1.50. Interestingly, there is no penalty to the Progressive for a player who only bets the $0.50, so the best EV actually comes from always betting Two Credits at the $0.25 denom, or 10 at the $0.05 denom. The $0.25 denom has the better base paytable, of course.
Quote: AlanMendelson
A lot of "ifs" there.
"If" in this context is still greater than 1 in 39 sextillion though, come on Alan. You have to realize a huge group of math dorks are going to question you when you described an event more unlikely than two of Patricia DeMauro's record-breaking rolls occurring "back-to-back", and her one-time event was heavily publicized.
Quote: AcesAndEightsHonestly when I saw akaTIMSPEED post that 2% figure I thought it was a joke. A 2% advantage at VP is huge, even if you include the value of comps in the equation.
I have to agree. Also, agree with the fact that I would never drive 30 mins to make a $5 bet that is considered a bounce back, free play whatever it may be only because the majority of the time that $5 bet gets you in the door then u lose that $5 bet and you salivate to play again more telling yourself you can gain that $5 bet + back, hell even make the damn gas $ that it took to drive that 30 mins. Then you leave with tail tucked and at least $100 in the negative. Oh but wait!!! ..... that bounce back will come again to cover that loss at a later date. Only to complete the same vicious cycle and same outcome in most cases.
It seems to me that way anyhow. I noticed that when the dealers know that you have a bounce back a freebie if you will thats all the more they make sure to make it a quick and negative outcome. Only to say to you, " don't even try" lol.. then we defy them and rip out the big bills and throw down. lol.... Only for them to cut us down once more before giving a bit. I noticed this alot @ JANUGGET. Also, it seems that @ JANUGGET what I have experienced is if you do not play at a particular level to please your host then you are shit . JANUGGET asks that you have the main vein open to them at all times yet they do notreturn that. That is the price to be paid for that 2 % edge I guess. No thanks, I have more pride than that. I will take my dollar elsewhere and get much better quality offers. JANUGGET is one place in itself and there is no room for growth however they ask for more & more from the client. No Thanks.
Do the math and weigh it all out. To be a professional gambler THE BANKROLL IS A MUST equaled with Math a Must. Otherwise you are just burying yourself. My personal opinion, I have found that the penny machines pay off better and give as high of an edge.
Quote: AlanMendelsonInteresting how I get challenged for talking about how I watched a random shooter throw 18 yos in a row, but there is a "pass" on a 2% edge and $800 an hour VP play.
Okay.
Agreed
Would any of you actually quit if you won the very first bet? ... So the actual saying should be what?
No, but sometimes I wish I had!
Exactly my point !!! (That $5 bounceback what is it really worth ?)
I once was told by a very wise person, "everyone is a winner when they walk in to the casino and play it is just knowing when to walk away." That is why so many people believe that it is a losing proposition. We so often believe that we can strike once more and that is when we lose and attempt to make it back and the downspiral, the bloodlettiing if you will continues, D R I P by D R I P . I on more than one ocassion have seen myself emoty a mans pockets of excess of $16 grand on a craps table all within my rolls on the table. I have witnessed them being wayyyyy ahead on my rolls only to come back for more and lose all. I relish in that for some odd reason, knowing that my pro craps rolls can do that to one gives a dangerous sense of euphoria that should not be. I have learned with time that is a dangerous feeling and have made every attempt to move away from that as in the end I have gained nothing from that euphoria.
Quote: century
I on more than one ocassion have seen myself empty a mans pockets of excess of $16 grand on a craps table all within my rolls on the table. I have witnessed them being wayyyyy ahead on my rolls only to come back for more and lose all. I relish in that for some odd reason, knowing that my pro craps rolls can do that to one gives a dangerous sense of euphoria that should not be. I have learned with time that is a dangerous feeling and have made every attempt to move away from that as in the end I have gained nothing from that euphoria.
Interesting...sounds a lot like...
Quote: sevenout77
I know for a fact that I am a skilled shooter. I have proven. Some on this site have witnessed. I have rolled in excess of 13 times in a row a seven out . I have been known to make some folks to the tune of 1600.00 on the dont. While I as well was on the dont with them. They stopped betting and I continued and the poor B****** pulled the money back out of his pocket after my please for him not to and ...... I went down. Took him all the way back to Zerooooooo . I have been known to have the skill to roll craps several times in a row during a roll. Known to roll in excess of hour and 45 I would say that is some skill. It was merily for recreation. Practice makes perfect.
Quote: AcesAndEightsHonestly when I saw akaTIMSPEED post that 2% figure I thought it was a joke. A 2% advantage at VP is huge, even if you include the value of comps in the equation.
2% is a nice edge at VP but not unheard of. On one day this year I was playing 10-play 25c 9/6 JoB with a 1.5% edge. This edge didn't include bounceback or drawings which put it around 2%. I played for 8 hours only taking bathroom breaks, and only quit cause time ran out on the play. When the dust had settled I was down $3,500...fail.
Regarding Bob Dancer's infamous $800/hour play... I hope he doesn't say anything about it but that's his decision, of course.
Quote: RogerKint2% is a nice edge at VP but not unheard of. On one day this year I was playing 10-play 25c 9/6 JoB with a 1.5% edge. This edge didn't include bounceback or drawings which put it around 2%. I played for 8 hours, only taking bathroom breaks, and only quit cause time ran out on the play. When the dust had settled I was down $3,500...fail.
Regarding Bob Dancer's infamous $800/hour play... I hope he doesn't say anything about it but that's his decision, of course.
Ouch.... Bigger edges on higher denoms or multiplay is nice but the bankroll requirements seem to skyrocket.
As far as Bob Dancer's play he didn't say much beyond the fact it exists.
Quote: djatcOuch.... Bigger edges on higher denoms or multiplay is nice but the bankroll requirements seem to skyrocket.
It's just not fair, is it? I know of a 1,200/hour play which is available sometimes but my entire bankroll would evaporate in less than 100 spins. All I can do is walk by the empty machine and day dream.
Quote: RogerKintIt's just not fair, is it? I know of a 1,200/hour play which is available sometimes but my entire bankroll would evaporate in less than 100 spins. All I can do is walk by the empty machine and day dream.
You should make money on that information. Sell it to Bob.
How do bounceback and drawings increase the house edge?Quote: RogerKintThis edge didn't include bounceback or drawings which put it around 2%.
Quote: aKaTIMSPEEDInteresting...sounds a lot like...
Are you implying something here ? Sounds alot alike? hmmmm.... I would have to differ. Look at the plst sentence it sure does not represent the same. Perhaps you struggle with the reading ability.
