Vice Presidential Debate

Quote:

Fifty percent of uncommitted voters who tuned into Thursday night's vice presidential debate in Danville, Ky., said they see Vice President Joe Biden as the winner over Mitt Romney's GOP running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., according to an instant poll taken by CBS News.

Of the 431 polled immediately following the debate, 31 percent deemed Ryan the winner, and 19 percent said they felt it was a tie. Party-wise it's a switch from last week's presidential debate, which uncommitted voters handed easily to Romney over President Obama.

Both Biden and Ryan gained ground on relatability and knowledge. The percentage of voters who say they believe they can relate to Biden spiked from 34 percent before the debate to 55 percent; 48 percent think Ryan is relatable, up from 31 percent before the debate. Meanwhile, after watching the two candidates debate, 85 percent of those polled think Biden is knowledgeable about the issues; 75 percent say that about Ryan.

Ryan, though, faced a loss among voters' opinions of which candidate would be an effective president, if necessary. Before the debate, he led Biden 45 percent to 39 percent; after the debate, 56 percent of those polled said Biden would be an effective president, with fewer - 49 percent--saying the same about Ryan.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57531059/poll-biden-takes-debate-over-ryan-uncommitted-voters-say/?tag=contentAux;mostPopular

Quote: s2dbaker

I betcha after this is over, the conservatards blame the moderator or the altitude or the lighting or something for Ryan's terrible performance.

There are lots of excuses out there for them to choose from if they needed to make excuses (they don't; it was a draw at worst and Biden looked bad with his condescending demeanor). The other side, I guess you would call them Libtards, figured out all the excuses possible after President Obama lost the first debate.

Sounds like I'm glad I missed this while watching football. The Washington State gubernatorial debate later in the evening was a good exchange of ideas however.

Quote: RonC

There are lots of excuses out there for them to choose from if they needed to make excuses (they don't; it was a draw at worst and Biden looked bad with his condescending demeanor). The other side, I guess you would call them Libtards, figured out all the excuses possible after President Obama lost the first debate.

It worked on me! I found his smile infectious, when he grinned, I grinned.

Here's my take on the debate and I will try to be objective as I usually do.

On substance, I thought VP Biden was very strong. I thought Mr Ryan was over-matched in two areas. Foreign policy, where I am sure he studied the most, being not his strong suit. He tried to sound like he knew what he was talking about but he just didn't. Area two is social security and medicare. Up until a year ago his main fame to claim was wanting to voucherize (privatize) the medicare program for EVERYONE. That position being a losing one, the Romeny plan is now to do so only for those under 55 and leave those over 55 alone. Also Mr Ryan has been a big proponent of privatizing social security for the last 10 years. having people invest their social security in the stock market which would be a disaster for everyone except the brokers. When Bush wanted to do this it was a wildly unpopular position and he quickly gave up on it. the biggest supporter though was Mr Ryan. So now as VP candidate, with his own ticket not supporting his two biggest things he has been about, it puts him in an awkward position as he has to have a position that he really doesn't favor.

Now VP Biden was very strong on substance. If you listened to the debate on the radio, it would have been very lopsided. But his laughing and sneering and general 3rd grade behavior was atrocious. He was very dis-respectful and to use the words of the republicans, came off like a buffoon.

Now this moderator that everyone, repubs and dems alike think did such a great job, I thought was horrible. She let Biden jump in too often and at one point lost control completely as the were both talking over each other for about 15 second, while you couldn't hear either. One very interesting topic that I haven't heard mentioned is that it was heavily reported yesterday that the Ryan camp had negotiated an agreement that the moderator would refer to Paul Ryan as Mr Ryan, rather than congressman Ryan. It is widely speculated that because of the dismal approval rating of congress. So despite this widely publisized agreement, the moderator referred to him as congressman Ryan on a number of occasions. Not sure if she forgot or what. VP biden was not part of that agreement and was free to refer to congressman Ryan as anything he liked and most often he chose 'my friend' which again, seemed disrespectful to me. I do realize it is common for members of congress and the senate to refer to members of the other party as "my friend from Wisconsin" or "my friend from Delaware", but I just didn't care for it.

CONGRESSMAN Ryan is part of the reason for the single digit approval rating of Congress.
It's really funny that he wishes he wasn't a part of it.
It should be noted that he is currently running for re-election for his seat,
so he has a fall back position, just in case God (on Kolob) doesn't see fit to let Romney win.

The CNN snap poll over sampled Republicans.

Yeah it's totally appropriate to label Ryan an extremist, he wants to balance the budget over decades! That's too fast! We should instead, go more into debt for the next few decades and let our great great grand kids pay it back.

It's only common sense. You know we should double the size of Medicaid, increase Social Security benefits. Remember, deficits don't matter, and debt is a good thing.

We can totally balance the budget without touching entitlements! Just cut the military. We take in 2.2 trillion a year, we spend 3.5 trillion, and 1 trillion of it's military. So as you can see, if we cut the military in half, we're totally fine!

..................





Enough of that. But it's crazy that I've actually had every single one of those arguments made to me by left wingers.



PS: All of these articles about Ryan's philosophy being based off of objectivity is nonsense. He may have read Ayn Rand, but his votes show that he is certainly not in line with her views. Maybe he agrees with her about some things, but in the end, ANYBODY who truly thinks that Ryan uses Rand's philosophy to guide him has no clue what they're talking about. (he voted for TARP, enough said.)

I saw part of the debate. Biden was playing the elder politician, Ryan was espousing a plan. I give props to Ryan for actually describing a plan with details and a policy to follow. I don't think it's a good plan but haven't read the details enough to have a strong opinion, but at least he was doing what I've been saying they sides need to do. Details a plan, and let it see the light of day.

"... Reagan proved that deficits don't matter... "
Dick Cheney

Let's not forget who started the ball rolling.
In 1980 the US was the largest creditor, in 1988, the largest debtor.

Quote: WongBo

"... Reagan proved that deficits don't matter... "
Dick Cheney

Let's not forget who started the ball rolling.
In 1980 the US was the largest creditor, in 1988, the largest debtor.

Maybe I came off a little strong when I used the term "left wingers," since I've heard many of the same arguments from conservatives. They are made far more often nowadays on the left, though.

Both parties suffer from Deficit Attention Obsessive Compulsive Disorder: They obsess over the deficit when they're not in power, and ignore it when they have their guy in the White House.

Quote: kewlj

Here's my take on the debate and I will try to be objective as I usually do.

On substance, I thought VP Biden was very strong. I thought Mr Ryan was over-matched in two areas. Foreign policy, where I am sure he studied the most, being not his strong suit. He tried to sound like he knew what he was talking about but he just didn't. Area two is social security and medicare. Up until a year ago his main fame to claim was wanting to voucherize (privatize) the medicare program for EVERYONE. That position being a losing one, the Romeny plan is now to do so only for those under 55 and leave those over 55 alone. Also Mr Ryan has been a big proponent of privatizing social security for the last 10 years. having people invest their social security in the stock market which would be a disaster for everyone except the brokers. When Bush wanted to do this it was a wildly unpopular position and he quickly gave up on it. the biggest supporter though was Mr Ryan. So now as VP candidate, with his own ticket not supporting his two biggest things he has been about, it puts him in an awkward position as he has to have a position that he really doesn't favor.

I think Ryan did fine on Foreign policy. Biden's low point(dial tested by undecideds on CNN) was his answer on Libya. It's amazing to me this administration STILL can't get on the same page on this. On medicare, you can be a fan or the voucher program or not. But we have to do something. We cant just stick our heads in the sand and all drive off the cliff together. It's simple math. As we are all posting on a gambling forum, I'm assuming we are all pretty good with numbers. The numbers for SS and Medicare/Medicaid are going to bankrupt this nation if he don't come up with ideas to fix the problem. I have not seen a plan put out by the current administration in regards to entitlements. It seems to me their plan is "oh don't worry we will take care of it, more along nothing to see here".

Privatizing SS would be awesome if I had the option I would take it tomorrow. Who here really would rather get a less than 2% return on their money? Are there really young people out their who would rather be in the SS system rather than having those same dollars go into a market based system like IRA or 401K or 503B plan? Even if all that money was going into annuities you would be FAR better off then in the SS system. Be honest kewjl you are telling me that you would rather have 6.2% of your earned wages and your employer matching 6.2%, going into the SS system? Rather than it being privately invested?

It seemed to me is all they talked about was the plans of Romney/Ryan...I think this is because the current administration has no plans of their own to fix the mess we are in.

Quote: WongBo

"... Reagan proved that deficits don't matter... "
Dick Cheney

Let's not forget who started the ball rolling.
In 1980 the US was the largest creditor, in 1988, the largest debtor.

are you implying that there was no debt prior to 1980? And that there were not annual deficits before 1980?

Quote: 1arrowheaddr

The CNN snap poll over sampled Republicans.

any data to back that up?

There were two different debates. One the Dem's
watched, and the one the rest of the country saw.

Reading the Lib bloggers today, two things are clear.
Old Joe's mugging smirking laughing eye rolling
Joker behavior was hardly noticed by the Left. And
they overwhelmingly LOVED the crap out of Martha
Raddatz, who interrupted Biden 19 times, and Ryan
31 times. And let Biden interrupt Ryan over 80 times.

Apparently nobody told her a debate isn't a 3 way
discussion. But Ryan held up amazingly well, so
who cares. All anybody is talking about is Biden's
uproarious laughter at all the wrong places and
his blatant rudeness. Debate? What debate.

And this is the guy in charge of something?

I didn't catch it all, but watched a good portion closed-captioned at a restaurant and caught some highlights today. It seemed clear that the Vice President was throwing red meat to re-energize the base and from that standpoint, I would say mission accomplished. What I found interesting was that after the first presidential debate, there was all of this talk about how Romney was being disrespectful to the President and consequently a turnoff to women/independent voters. Now, I didn't think that was the case, but it was obviously so last night. Here's a quote from Chris Wallace: "I don't believe I've ever seen a debate in which one participant was as openly disrespectful of the other as Biden was to Paul Ryan tonight". I think this will turn-off some people that are undecided- although probably not enough by itself to help them make their final decision. There wasn't any major issue which would cause people to not vote for Romney because of something Ryan did. Net everything, probably a small incremental positive for the Republican side.

Quote: TheBigPaybak

Net everything, probably a small incremental positive for the Republican side.

Word is, here and there, and more will come
in as the weekend progresses, that Biden's
mugging and smirking turned off young
people and women in droves and they stopped
watching relatively early in the debate. I know
my wife found Biden arrogant and disgusting
and she seldom says anything about anybody.

Biden probably did more harm last night than
they can measure. People don't like politicians
acting like their 14 yr old son at dinner, who
laughs at and mocks everything they say.

Quote: EvenBob

Word is, here and there, and more will come
in as the weekend progresses, that Biden's
mugging and smirking turned off young
people and women in droves and they stopped
watching relatively early in the debate. I know
my wife found Biden arrogant and disgusting
and she seldom says anything about anybody.

Biden probably did more harm last night than
they can measure. People don't like politicians
acting like their 14 yr old son at dinner, who
laughs at and mocks everything they say.

I tend to agree: I think the people who *totally* loved his performance were voting for Obama anyway and the other undecideds probably didn't view it a positive. Onward to next Tuesday...

Did I read right somewhere it was mentioned that Paul Ryan was sketching a cat on a pad in front of him ? If so ,then he showed a good F.U. to the entire 90 minute charade. I am applauding him for that. Well done Paul .



WASHOO2

Quote: TheBigPaybak

I tend to agree: I think the people who *totally* loved his performance were voting for Obama

Biden was acting how a lot of Lib's act in
real life: arrogant and sarcastic. So they
thought nothing of Biden doing it, I
really think a lot of them didn't even
notice. It reminded me of the attitudes
of the hosts on the now defunct Air
America. Everything was a joke, every
issue had a snide punchline. There was
no substance there, just never ending
frat humor, one step above fart jokes.

Quote: EvenBob

And this is the guy in charge of something?

Now I'm grinning again!

If I had not traded my vote, I would not vote for either Romney or Obama, and remember that I called Romney the clear winner of the first Debate...so I'm truly not biased...but Biden's great! I'd take him as President any day of the week!

Quote: Mission146

..but Biden's great! I'd take him as President any day of the week!

Its probably hard to hit the nuke button
when you're wearing a straightjacket,
but maybe he could get a fellow loon Lib
to help him. They couldn't get enough
of the mugging & laughing when important
subjects came up. Luckily only a small part
of the country swills the KoolAid nonstop.

Quote: EvenBob

Its probably hard to hit the nuke button
when you're wearing a straightjacket,
but maybe he could get a fellow loon Lib
to help him. They couldn't get enough
of the mugging & laughing when important
subjects came up. Luckily only a small part
of the country swills the KoolAid nonstop.

I'm not drinking anything. I would call the Biden/Ryan Debate a tie, in all honesty. I can just appreciate it when someone is genuine. I voted for Santorum in the Primary (you do not Register as a party in Ohio, but rather pick a ticket in each individual primary, so I'd never pick an incumbent ticket). I disagree with virtually everything that Santorum ever said when it comes to social issues, but he's genuine, and therefore, predictable so I know what he is going to do. I like knwoing what to expect.

Had Santorum won, I would not have voted for him in the General Election, either.

Quote: Mission146

I'm not drinking anything. I would call the Biden/Ryan Debate a tie, .

It would have been a tie, Biden's lies and gaffs
and all, if he hadn't made a mockery of the
process. Everybody is waiting to see what SNL
does with this tomorrow.

I was surprised how sharp Biden seemed throughout. I'd definitely have to give it to him, if only by handicap.

Quote: vert1276

Be honest kewjl you are telling me that you would rather have 6.2% of your earned wages and your employer matching 6.2%, going into the SS system?

What are earned wages? What's an employer? ??? :)

Quote: vert1276

Privatizing SS would be awesome if I had the option I would take it tomorrow. Who here really would rather get a less than 2% return on their money? Are there really young people out their who would rather be in the SS system rather than having those same dollars go into a market based system like IRA or 401K or 503B plan? Even if all that money was going into annuities you would be FAR better off then in the SS system. Be honest kewjl you are telling me that you would rather have 6.2% of your earned wages and your employer matching 6.2%, going into the SS system? Rather than it being privately invested?

Is the Social Security sysetm only for retirement in this case, or does that money go to pay for unemployment and disability?

How would it work for my contributions if I didn't work for 50% of the time (illness/unemployment/etc)? Would a private system have to have minimum defined benefit?

I ask out of interest on how it would work, not as a trap question... (I'm not a US citizen or resident).

We get it, he's black.

Quote: DigitalTim

We get it, he's black.

I am confused. What are you talking about and who are you talking to?

Quote: EvenBob

there was
no substance there, just never ending
frat humor, one step above fart jokes.

Oh yeah

Seems to me the democrats can hang their "Mission Accomplished" banner after this one.

Instead of discussing a failing economy or a middle east policy in shambles, the talking heads are pontificating on the tenor and behavior of the debaters.

The vice president still doesn't have his story straight with the State department. Those couples making $250,00+ slated for the Obama tax increase can breathe easy, since the veep said (more than once, I think) that the threshold is now $1 million. And the Iranians aren't developing nukes, and they're peaceful, and if they were close, they couldn't deliver them, and if they did the president would...be very disappointed. Did I mention I know Bibi Netanyahu?

Quote: WongBo

It should be noted that [Ryan] is currently running for re-election for his seat, so he has a fall back position

Ryan was running for his seat prior to being selected VP candidate. Under Wisconsin law his name cannot be removed from the ballot -- unless he dies.

One of the biggest highlites in reruns of the debate
is Biden laughing uproariously at Iran getting nukes.
He threw his head back and laughed and laughed,
smiled, guffawed, smirked, could barely control
himself, the subject was so funny. And the Left
LOVED it, they hope Obama does this on Tuesday.

So do I..

Try watching the debate with the sound turned down.
Biden looks demented.

Quote: vert1276

are you implying that there was no debt prior to 1980? And that there were not annual deficits before 1980?

There was certainly debt and deficits prior to 1980. WWII deficits were massive. But it is fair to say that 1982 represented a fundamental shift to large peacetime deficits.

Debt expressed as a percentage of GDP

-14.2% 1942
-30.3 1943
-22.7 1944
-21.5 1945
-7.2 1946
1.7 1947
4.6 1948
0.2 1949
...
-2.7% 1980
-2.6 1981
-4.0 1982
-6.0 1983
-4.8 1984
-5.1 1985
-5.0 1986
-3.2 1987
...

-3.2% 2008
-10.1 2009
-9.0 2010
-8.7 2011
-8.5 2012 estimate
-5.5 2013 estimate

Ouch. Deficits should be a few tenths of a point (the ratio between deficit and GDP growth gives the overall GDP/Debt ratio).

Long term 5% deficits are not sustainable. 2-3% would be possible with GDP growth of 3-6%, if you wanted a highly leveraged country (something the US could do better than most other countries). But the growth is just not that high. And more importantly, running bigger deficits without an emergency (low growth, war, etc) means less ability to react to bad situations.

But we knew that anyways.

Quote: thecesspit

Ouch. Deficits should be a few tenths of a point (the ratio between deficit and GDP growth gives the overall GDP/Debt ratio).

Long term 5% deficits are not sustainable. 2-3% would be possible with GDP growth of 3-6%, if you wanted a highly leveraged country (something the US could do better than most other countries). But the growth is just not that high. And more importantly, running bigger deficits without an emergency (low growth, war, etc) means less ability to react to bad situations.

But we knew that anyways.

3% or so has shown to be ideal. There needs to be a liquid and active market for your debt if you want to borrow more and borrow more fast. The Feds need to borrow in various parts of the year to even out cash flow.

Two days after the debate and Gallup has Romney 52%. Obama 45%.

Intrade is still 61-39.

Quote: EvenBob

Two days after the debate and Gallup has Romney 52%. Obama 45%.

Intrade is still 61-39.

Something happened in that debate. Opinion seems to be about a tie with perhaps an Obama win by a field goal if it was "scored" college debate style.

But two focus groups on two different networks got near the same results, Obama voters flipping to Romney. Anyone who knows knows that it is dagerous to go by one focus group. But two such different networks and same result---something happened. Now today a buddy of 20 years says after seeing the debate he is close to flipping to Romney. He and his wife are government employees as a social worker and teacher. But what is fascinating to me is as he told me of this, his answers were so along the focus groups answers it was just amazing.

The cult-of-personality types still support Obam, but the electorate seems to be getting serious and looking at his record.

Quote: AZDuffman

But two such different networks and same result---something happened.

Romney looked more presidential, thats what happened. He
kept hitting on his experience and it resonated with people.
Obama still has nothing but hope and change, he has no
record to run on. When Romney ran down the long list
of Obama's failures and Obama said not a word, it was
devastating.

Quote: EvenBob

Two days after the debate and Gallup has Romney 52%. Obama 45%.

Intrade is still 61-39.

Bob, you have to understand that these two numbers are tracking different things.

The Gallup poll is tracking the national popular vote. Intrade is betting on who wins the election via the electoral college. These are two different things. Putting aside the fact that Intrade is just like a sportsbook balancing the action on both sides to hedge its risk while still collecting the vig.

As kewlj has been postulating, a reasonable possible outcome for this election is that Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral college. In that case, both the Gallup poll and the Intrade prediction are correct!

Quote: AcesAndEights

Bob, you have to understand that these two numbers are tracking different things.

Yes, I know that. I'm just mentioning it because the
numbers are so far apart. This is not going to be a
close election, its going to be a landslide.

Here's the latest from Real Clear Politics. Romney is
ahead in electoral votes. No go look at Intrade.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html