pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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February 2nd, 2010 at 12:09:03 PM permalink
"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"Up in the Air"
"Up"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Blind Side"
"A Serious Man"

I have only seen 6 of the 10, and I have yet to see The Hurt Locker which seems to be the favorite. I thought Star Trek was better than District 9. It does appear that there was knee jerk reaction to go with the SCI-FI film that was socially relevant versus the one that was entertainment. I would have liked to see a funny entertaining movie make it into the newly expanded 10 picture nomination list.

They got the #1, #5, and #8 film by boxoffice into the list. None of which would have made the cut if there were only five pictures nominated.

My prediction is that if it was back to 5 nominations it would have followed the pattern of the last 3 years, where there are 4 R rated and 1 PG-13 dramas, all excellent movies with limited boxoffice.

"The Hurt Locker" R
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" R
"Up in the Air" R
"An Education" R
"A Serious Man" PG-13

Movies with no acting nominations have won best picture, Braveheart, The Last Emperor and Lord of the Rings but I don't think that will ever happen again. So Avatar is out of the question.

I think that the director of the biggest money making of all time formerly married to the first female director of a "best picture" film will be too hard to resist.
cclub79
cclub79
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February 2nd, 2010 at 12:20:28 PM permalink
I agree. When I heard it was expanded to ten, I thought they'd go beyond the typical nominees and at least give something like The Hangover a shot.

With SO many entrants, it does leave the possibility for a greater split vote, and I think Avatar stands out as one that could sneak in and win among a field of ten, whereas not in a field of five.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 2nd, 2010 at 12:36:12 PM permalink
Here is how I would rank the best picture movies that I saw:

1. District 9
2. Inglourious Basterds
3. Up in the Air
4. A Serious Man
5. Avatar
6. Up

I'm awaiting to see the Pinnacle lines, but at this point I predict Avatar will win, because Hollywood tends to like politically left-wing movies, and they have been getting grief from the public for favoring movies that didn't do well in the box office lately. As usual, I tend to lay whatever I have to on the favorites. Last year I bet everything in my account on Slumdog Millionaire, which I thought was about as close to a lock as you can get.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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February 2nd, 2010 at 1:06:55 PM permalink
Quote:

"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"Up in the Air"
"Up"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Blind Side"
"A Serious Man"



What I am especially pleased about is the absense of the movie Invictus from most of the major awards. To have it not make the top 10 is a reaffirmation of everything I said in my review. Only Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon got nominations from this movie. I doubt either of them will be close to winning the award, given that their roles are flat with no character depth or growth.

Inglorious Basterds would win easily in a bad movie year. But, sadly, Avatar is going to take it. My personal favorite is Nine. Oh well.

The complete list:

http://oscar.go.com/media/2010/html/print10.html

--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
RiverRock
RiverRock
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February 2nd, 2010 at 1:32:13 PM permalink
My Predictions

Best Picture: Avatar
Actor: George Clooney
Actress: Julia Child (sorry, I mean Meryl Streep)
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci
Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 2nd, 2010 at 2:30:42 PM permalink
From what I understand, Mo'Nique is the only one that is a clear favorite in an acting award. Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart" was an amazing performance, but not a lot of people saw the movie. I would say Meryl Streep is a minor favorite.

I think that Stanley Tucci may have been a good acting in "The Lovely Bones", but critics did not like the movie. I can't think of one case where someone won an acting award in a movie with terrible reviews. The movie can get mediocre reviews, where one actor is a standout. A good example is The Last Station which got bad reviews for the movie, but good reviews for Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer. But I can't think of a movie with really bad reviews.

I am surprised on the number of people who think Avatar will win BP. I don't think it would have been nominated if the list was only 5 movies. A movie without an acting nomination, or either best original or adapted screenplay nomination is unlikely to win BP. Personally I think it was the most poorly written of James Cameron's movies. Of course, I felt that LOTR was very boring. I have read the LOTR trilogy several times, so I am a fan of the books, but I found the movie tedious.

The rotten tomatoes is the percent of reviewers who liked a movie, not their rating of the best film of the year. It would be hard to find a critic that didn't like Up.
98% Up
97% The Hurt Locker
95% An Education
91% Precious: Based on the Novel PUSH by Sapphire
90% District 9
90% Up in the Air
89% Inglorious Basterds
87% A Serious Man
82% Avatar
70% The Blind Side
============
92% Crazy Heart
90% The messenger
83% A Single Man
77% Invictus
75% Julie and Julia
64% The Last Station
37% Nine
36% The Lovely Bones


Twenty Most Successful Movies to not rate one nomination (even a technical one)
The Hangover
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
Monsters Vs. Aliens
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
2012
The Proposal
Fast and Furious
G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
Paul Blart: Mall Cop
Taken
A Christmas Carol (2009)
Angels & Demons
Terminator Salvation
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
G-Force
Couples Retreat
Paranormal Activity
Watchmen
Last edited by: pacomartin on Feb 6, 2010
Nareed
Nareed
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February 2nd, 2010 at 2:31:11 PM permalink
This is the same academy that snubbed "Citizen Kane" and gave a Best Picture prize to "How Green Was My Valley", right? ;)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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February 2nd, 2010 at 3:35:00 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

This is the same academy that snubbed "Citizen Kane" and gave a Best Picture prize to "How Green Was My Valley", right? ;)

Call me crazy, but I think some of the members have died since then.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 2nd, 2010 at 4:47:30 PM permalink
Here are some more recent Best Picture winners I didn't agree with:

1994: Forrest Gump over The Shawshank Redemption and Pulp Fiction
1998: Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan
2005: Crash over Brokeback Mountain
2009: Slumdog Millionaire over The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 2nd, 2010 at 7:33:38 PM permalink
I am in favor of a commercial best picture award for films released in under 2000 theaters, and another one for films released in over 2000 theaters. I don't think there is any way to fairly evaluate Hurt Locker against Avatar. Possibly to be fair movies released in 2000-3000 theaters should be placed in the category at the director's option.

Avatar 3,461
Up 3,886
The Blind Side 3,404
Inglorious Basterds 3,358
District9 3,180
Up in the Air 2,218

Precious 1,003
Hurt Locker 535
An Education 317
A Serious Man 262

I mean standards for an art house movie that 1-5 million people will see are very different than one that 10-80 million people will see. There are 2 million people in greater Las Vegas, and some of these films only show in one or two theaters.

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