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egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:13:39 PM permalink
After what was a very successful Baccarat jaunt on the Gold Coast, I was playing at a extremely slow table which was severely screwing my head, the combination of the card squeezing, being continually giving duff cards to open such as a "three side and no side" which turned out to be an 8 and an 3 or a 7 and 4 or BJ (wrong table), the totally inapt slow dealer was getting to me. My final lost bet of 500 was placed on the wrong side (shit happens). So I hot trot to the VIP area for a fast recoup and got well and truly nailed.

That was a crazy situation with a pit boss gawping from one side and another staff member grinning from the other, I spoke up and said "what the fuck is going, would you like a seat", so the pit boss told the staff member to find something to do, which invited comments from the dealer who was loving every minute of my demise and melt down, something that doesn't happen often but can happen.

Licking my wounds, I now find myself in the situation of having to do it all over again, Not entirely fazed by that, because I've done it many times in the past, grinding out 20k per month, yet I find it so mentally draining to be so far ahead and having to restart all over. My question to veteran board members, it there any decent literature on the web, book recommendations that deal with these rare and unfortunate aspects of gambling.
sodawater
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:21:45 PM permalink
Baccarat is a negative game and you cannot expect to "grind out" a profit from it.

You should only play baccarat for entertainment purposes, for an amount you are fine with losing.

With regard to "tilt" and other psychological aspects of gambling, there are many poker books that discuss this. Barry Greenstein's excellent book "Ace on the River" has a few chapters devoted to psychology and tilt.

Doyle Brunson's advice in "According to Doyle" is to never sit down to a poker game if you are feeling too angry, upset, sick, or anxious to sit through a 2-hour movie in a theater. I think that is good advice.

However, that only applies to poker and other games that can be positive-expectation. For a negative game, don't play unless you're having fun and can afford to lose the money you are playing with.
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:22:51 PM permalink
Quote: egalite



Licking my wounds, I now find myself in the situation of having to do it all over again.



Do what all over again. You lost your whole BR,
is that what you're saying?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
FleaStiff
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:24:24 PM permalink
I'm not quite sure what happened.

If employees were annoying you, speak up promptly.

If it was other players bending cards... play Mini Bacc where players don't touch the cards.

Don't let things annoy you. Luck comes and goes but bad employees go if you speak up.
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:33:59 PM permalink
Thanks sodawater, I constantly grind out profits playing Baccarat, winning 10, 15, 20 continuous sessions is a well developed habit for me, I make more playing Baccarat than I would working for any wage, I'm not your perceived average player.

Cheers for the Brunson quote, it is a start, I was looking for a decent physiologically read if anybody knows of any.
AxiomOfChoice
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:41:28 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Baccarat is a negative game and you cannot expect to "grind out" a profit from it.



I dunno. Most games can be beaten if you have the right information.

I must admit, I'm a little confused too. I can only think of a couple of ways to (legally) beat baccarat and they don't seem too likely to work in practice. But maybe there is something that I'm not thinking of...
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:41:48 PM permalink
What happened? Do you lose a great deal of money?
What you wrote is very vague.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
sodawater
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:45:54 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I dunno. Most games can be beaten if you have the right information.

I must admit, I'm a little confused too. I can only think of a couple of ways to (legally) beat baccarat and they don't seem too likely to work in practice. But maybe there is something that I'm not thinking of...



Maybe OP is Phil Ivey
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:47:16 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Do what all over again. You lost your whole BR, is that what you're saying?

Not quite, I lost the bulk of my tidy trip profit, but that wasn't the purpose of the post.

Quote: FleaStiff

I'm not quite sure what happened.

If employees were annoying you, speak up promptly.

If it was other players bending cards... play Mini Bacc where players don't touch the cards.

Don't let things annoy you. Luck comes and goes but bad employees go if you speak up.

It is very rare for me to lose my composure at the tables, it was like being in a pressure cooker, the combination of losing and having two staff members gawping at me plus the dealer, so I did speak up with the odd expletive. No doubt the pit boss was enjoying it, as I bought in for 2k the day before and turned that into a 250% profit, something they weren't happy with. It was akin to going on tilt at a poker table [hence the title]. Now I'm am seeking (if any exists) a good read to find heart to do it all over again.
AxelWolf
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:50:52 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Not quite, I lost the bulk of my tidy trip profit, but that wasn't the purpose of the post.

It is very rare for me to lose my composure at the tables, it was like being in a pressure cooker, the combination of losing and having two staff members gawping at me plus the dealer, so I did speak up with the odd expletive. No doubt the pit boss was enjoying it, as I bought in for 2k the day before and turned that into a 250% profit, something they weren't happy with. It was akin to going on tilt at a poker table [hence the title]. Now I'm am seeking (if any exists) a good read to find heart to do it all over again.

Zen and the Art of Poker ?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:53:01 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

What happened? Do you lose a great deal of money?
What you wrote is very vague.

LOL, when you become my accountant, I will provide you with the details. Yes by your standards I lost an incredible deal of money, from a situation that began by betting the wrong side on a frustrating table, with a frustratingly slow dealer. I have played since and won.

Surely there are some good gambling physiological / motivational reads on the internet.
AxiomOfChoice
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:53:28 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Zen and the Art of Poker ?



Ha, I had just copied the link from amazon and I was going to post the same reply :)

Bottom line: If you have the edge, don't worry about the money; just trust the math. If you don't have the edge, get used to losing.
odiousgambit
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January 6th, 2014 at 5:57:29 PM permalink
You seem to feel you are an AP at Baccarat; frankly, zipping over to the high limit section would seem to rule out card-sorting or some such method.

What do you say to the frequently heard opinion that to be an advantage player at baccarat is not possible [assuming all is on the up and up]?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:08:17 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Ha, I had just copied the link from amazon and I was going to post the same reply :)

Bottom line: If you have the edge, don't worry about the money; just trust the math. If you don't have the edge, get used to losing.

Grinding out over 50k inside two months from one casino, $20k from another inside a month, betting a variation of levels $10, $25, $100 & $500, while frequently enjoying, consecutive successful sessions of 10, 15 even 27. I reverse the maths on to the house (without wishing to go further into detail), I don't rely or need to predict "edge" anything. Sure scoff it you like, my unparallelled win rate speaks for it self. It is very rare for me to lose my cool, yet that happened two days ago and yes it cost me.

Now I want to find a good read, not only to help me lick my wounds, already have got back in the saddle, but I'm limping, however more importantly I want to better arm/educate/awareness/ myself to prevent it happening again. I will check out the book mentioned.
sodawater
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:11:23 PM permalink
egalite,

everything you are saying is nonsense and you would be well advised to stop deluding yourself that you have some sort of mystical advantage in baccarat.
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:12:52 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Yes by your standards I lost an incredible deal of money, .



You have no idea what my standards are because
I have never talked about them, and you know it.

You're the guy that laughs every time goals are
mentioned, yet if you had loss limits you wouldn't
be where you are now. I've known you for a long
time, you know better than to sit there like a
ploppie in a bad mood, and just lose and lose.

On a side note, don't you just hate it when you bet
one side and you meant to bet the other? There's
actual research on this, it's a trick the brain does.
We really have to double check our bets more often.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:15:21 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Grinding out over 50k inside two months from one casino, $20k from another inside a month, betting a variation of levels $10, $25, $100 & $500, while frequently enjoying, consecutive successful sessions of 10, 15 even 27. I reverse the maths on to the house (without wishing to go further into detail), I don't rely or need to predict "edge" anything. Sure scoff it you like, my unparallelled win rate speaks for it self. It is very rare for me to lose my cool, yet that happened two days ago and yes it cost me.

Now I want to find a good read, not only to help me lick my wounds, already have got back in the saddle, but I'm limping, however more importantly I want to better arm/educate/awareness/ myself to prevent it happening again. I will check out the book mentioned.



I'm not scoffing at anything. What I'm saying is this:

If you have a mathematical edge, don't worry about the money. Swings happen. Understanding this, and really coming to terms with it, can prevent you from going on tilt. You should EXPECT to lose a bunch of money sometimes, if you play for long enough. It's not about preventing it from happening again -- it's about not losing your cool when it does happen.

If you don't have an edge and are just playing some betting progression or looking for patterns (say it ain't so) then get used to losing, because you haven't reversed anything.

I honestly don't know what you are doing, so I'm not scoffing or judging or anything. I am well aware that many games can be beaten, if you have the right information.
rainy
rainy
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:18:51 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Grinding out over 50k inside two months from one casino, $20k from another inside a month, betting a variation of levels $10, $25, $100 & $500, while frequently enjoying, consecutive successful sessions of 10, 15 even 27. I reverse the maths on to the house (without wishing to go further into detail), I don't rely or need to predict "edge" anything. Sure scoff it you like, my unparallelled win rate speaks for it self. It is very rare for me to lose my cool, yet that happened two days ago and yes it cost me.

Now I want to find a good read, not only to help me lick my wounds, already have got back in the saddle, but I'm limping, however more importantly I want to better arm/educate/awareness/ myself to prevent it happening again. I will check out the book mentioned.


I think people here don't care for people who say they have the edge, unless they explain the strategy behind it.

I'm sure if you have a consistent winning strategy at a game you play, you would not want to share it, but you can't really say anything about people "scoffing" at you when the only explanation you give them is "I am successful and my winrate speaks for itself" because in reality, it doesn't speak for itself. Since we don't know what you do.
dwheatley
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:21:27 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

My question to veteran board members, it there any decent literature on the web, book recommendations that deal with these rare and unfortunate aspects of gambling.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_%282007_book%29
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:23:00 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You seem to feel you are an AP at Baccarat; frankly, zipping over to the high limit section would seem to rule out card-sorting or some such method.

What do you say to the frequently heard opinion that to be an advantage player at baccarat is not possible [assuming all is on the up and up]?

I don't and have never claimed to be an AP playing Baccarat, I'm just a very savvy player.

As with all casino games (without exception) everything comes down to money management. Even BJ players when the shoe count is favorable rely on money management, i.e they increase their bets even though the dealer is just as likely to snare a BJ as the player. I simply play a game whereas the house has to buck xx odds for me to lose x number of bets in a row, even when they manage that, it's not the end of the world, unless they can do so on a consistent basis. Yesterday as an example they managed it approx 5 times in 6 shoes, twice in one shoe and no times in a few others, yet I waked away with a 150% profit of my buyin. Meanwhile I simple focus on solid MM which is what gambling hinges on, whether you perceive you have an advantage or not. Unfortunately I am not a robot and there was a rare melt down.

This thread was not started to discuss the merit of playing Baccarat, or for me to divulge my personal details for Spike, rather a little "here is a brief of what happened", surely the board members at WoV must have come across some good reads regarding recouping after a tilt.
AxiomOfChoice
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:26:43 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Quote: odiousgambit

You seem to feel you are an AP at Baccarat; frankly, zipping over to the high limit section would seem to rule out card-sorting or some such method.

What do you say to the frequently heard opinion that to be an advantage player at baccarat is not possible [assuming all is on the up and up]?

I don't and have never claimed to be an AP playing Baccarat, I've just a very savvy player.

As with all casino games (without exception) everything comes down to money management. Even BJ players when the shoe count is favorable rely on money management, i.e they increase their bets even though the dealer is just as likely to snare a BJ as the player. I simply play a game whereas the house has to buck xx odds for me to lose x number of bets in a row, even when they manage that, it's not the end of the world, unless they can do so on a consistent basis. Yesterday as an example they managed it approx 5 times in 6 shoes, twice in one shoe and no times in a few others, yet I waked away with a 150% profit of my buyin. Meanwhile I simple focus on solid MM which is what gambling hinges on, whether you perceive you have an advantage or not. Unfortunately I am not a robot and there was a rare melt down.

This thread was not started to discuss the merit of playing Baccarat, or for me to divulge my personal details for Spike, rather a little "here is a brief of what happened", surely the board members at WoV must have come across some good reads regarding recouping after a tilt.



Note that in blackjack, while it is true that the dealer and player are equally likely to get dealt a blackjack, the player gets dealt 3:2 on his blackjacks, while the dealer does not. I'll flip coins with you all day long if you give me 3:2. Hell, I'll even let you give me 6:5. Please bring lots of money.
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:27:33 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You have no idea what my standards are because
I have never talked about them, and you know it.

Short memory? You did tell me once, but never mind.

Quote:

You're the guy that laughs every time goals are
mentioned, yet if you had loss limits you wouldn't
be where you are now. I've known you for a long
time, you know better than to sit there like a
ploppie in a bad mood, and just lose and lose.

Yes you are right, I actually did leave the table mid shoe, but there was only one other open which was half way through. Then you kinda go into a mode of needing it recoup asap. Sometimes you need to read it in front to you, to mentally re-enforce it in yourself.

Quote:

On a side note, don't you just hate it when you bet one side and you meant to bet the other? There's actual research on this, it's a trick the brain does. We really have to double check our bets more often.

LOL, sometimes you bet the wrong side and it pays off as every hand is 50-50 anyway, this time it didn't and lead to dire consequences.
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:38:44 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I'm not scoffing at anything. What I'm saying is this:

If you have a mathematical edge, don't worry about the money. Swings happen. Understanding this, and really coming to terms with it, can prevent you from going on tilt. You should EXPECT to lose a bunch of money sometimes, if you play for long enough. It's not about preventing it from happening again -- it's about not losing your cool when it does happen.

If you don't have an edge and are just playing some betting progression or looking for patterns (say it ain't so) then get used to losing, because you haven't reversed anything.

I honestly don't know what you are doing, so I'm not scoffing or judging or anything. I am well aware that many games can be beaten, if you have the right information.

There is no edge in Baccarat, it is money management game which I am very good at. I don't look for patterns, I don't even look at the electronic score board, because every hand is a 50-50 outcome and non-correlated, I don't play like the rest of the muppets you generally see at tables. Yes I do play a progression, because you won't win flat betting and you need too much luck to bet positive. You can be lucky on any given hand, however to consistently win, which I have been doing is not down to luck.

This wasn't so much a swing, I do know all about them, it was a melt down of me personally and I decided it was time to seek out some inspirational reads.
sodawater
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:40:55 PM permalink
There is no progression of betting or money management that can overcome (or even make a dent in) the house edge.

Before you waste several thousand more dollars chasing your "grind money," why not invest in a high school statistics book so you can confirm the above-mentioned fact for yourself?
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

There is no progression of betting or money management that can overcome (or even make a dent in) the house edge.

Before you waste several thousand more dollars chasing your "grind money," why not invest in a high school statistics book so you can confirm the above-mentioned fact for yourself?

So you have recently pulled out $70k from casinos inside 4 months betting relatively small?
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:44:53 PM permalink
Quote: egalite



LOL, sometimes you bet the wrong side and it pays off as every hand is 50-50 anyway, this time it didn't and lead to dire consequences.



My point is, we think we bet where we wanted,
we can look right at it and think it's right, and
it's not. It's a malfunction of the brain and it's
common in everybody. It mostly manifests
itself in getting your left and right hand confused.

I'll mean to bet red and bet black instead and
not even realize it right in front of me. Very
disconcerting. Luckily there's a 50/50 chance
of it being correct.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:47:23 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

There is no progression of betting or money management that can overcome (or even make a dent in) the house edge.



Absolutely right. He isn't talking about that.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:48:26 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

So you have recently pulled out $70k from casinos inside 4 months betting relatively small?



Are you sure you want to go down this road.
I wouldn't if I were you. There be math people
here..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:51:39 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

My point is, we think we bet where we wanted,
we can look right at it and think it's right, and
it's not. It's a malfunction of the brain and it's
common in everybody. It mostly manifests
itself in getting your left and right hand confused.

I'll mean to bet red and bet black instead and
not even realize it right in front of me. Very
disconcerting. Luckily there's a 50/50 chance
of it being correct.

Ha, several years ago, I placed a 7.5k bet on the wrong side (the days when I used a Fibo, long gone), called the cards and even cheered the winning side, then looked at which side my bet was on, which was the wrong side. the table was full I leaned over to place my bet, even my mate who was suppose to be watching my back didn't notice the mistake. We couldn't believe it, stunned, even the dealer was confused why we cheered. Never didn't recoup from that session.
egalite
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:55:32 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Are you sure you want to go down this road.
I wouldn't if I were you. There be math people
here..

I'm well aware of it, most don't play Baccarat because there is no edge, which I will freely admit. I don't let the HE concern me. I'm off now for my 2nd session after the event, it's like a job, no travel when you stay above the gaming floor.
sodawater
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:58:40 PM permalink
egalite,

carry on... it is people like you that keep casinos in business.
djatc
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:06:43 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

egalite,

carry on... it is people like you that keep casinos in business.



Pit bosses need bonuses.

Bac won't make you money. Its entertainment masked by cards and squeezing them to feel more in control. I realized this after playing a ton when I moved here. Yes its one of the fastest ways to make money but the math makes no sense. Smartest thing I did was see how foolish I was in chasing my +EV losses with a -ev game.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:15:24 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

egalite,

carry on... it is people like you that keep casinos in business.



You know nothing about it, which is just as
well. You'll sleep better not knowing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
sodawater
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:20:10 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You know nothing about it, which is just as
well. You'll sleep better not knowing.




he just said he uses only betting progressions and money management to beat baccarat.

that's all i need to know to evaluate his play.
egalite
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:23:58 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

he just said he uses only betting progressions and money management to beat baccarat.

that's all i need to know to evaluate his play.

Not entirely correct, I place the emphasis on the house to beat my declared odds. Sometimes they do, but that doesn't mean it's game over either, unless they can do it continually.
Buzzard
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:29:02 PM permalink
Now to say what everyone else is thinking. You are full of shit !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
djatc
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:36:01 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Now to say what everyone else is thinking. You are full of shit !



No, all I require are numbers and the math. If you can show what you are doing is +EV you'll be the smartest guy I know.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
sabre
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January 6th, 2014 at 7:56:46 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

I'm just a very savvy player.



You are no more savvy nor less savvy than any other Baccarat player. You are simply a Baccarat player.
michael99000
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:01:21 PM permalink
I surmise that casinos make more off of savvy players than they make off of people who are smart enough to know they're gonna lose.

Both will eventually lose of course, but the savvy player will keep trying way longer
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:08:11 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

You are no more savvy nor less savvy than any other Baccarat player. You are simply a Baccarat player.



Every game in the casino can be beaten
to some degree. Like it or don't, it doesn't
matter to those doing it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ibeatyouraces
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:15:14 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
onenickelmiracle
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Joined: Jan 26, 2012
January 6th, 2014 at 8:23:19 PM permalink
If you lost all your money, you still won't be able to do what you're thinking you're doing to make that money. Reality will hurt that much more then if you're wrong and you'll at that point be less than helpless. Just one more time- famous last words for many.
I am a robot.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:27:33 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Agreed, but not beatable the way he's doing it. Just been, what's the word, "lucky."



He didn't tell you everything he's doing. Why would he.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:29:12 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

If you lost all your money, .



He didn't lose all his money, just what he won
in that session. He plays down under, they
drink too much down there.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:32:51 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:42:10 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

He didn't lose all his money, just what he won
in that session. He plays down under, they
drink too much down there.

I understand, but if is can also be used referencing the future. He mentions being unable to stop because he cannot replace the money he has won and spends on the lifestyle I presume. Even someone I know rich from the stock market lost it almost all in one day thanks to wanting a free Viper.
I am a robot.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:48:18 PM permalink
Quote: egalite


Now I want to find a good read, not only to help me lick my wounds, already have got back in the saddle, but I'm limping, however more importantly I want to better arm/educate/awareness/ myself to prevent it happening again. I will check out the book mentioned.



Might I recommend a short story called, "The Ultimate System," for inspiration. It's not finished, yet, but the chapters that are done are pretty okay.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:54:34 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He doesn't have to. Seen it and heard it for many years.



Impossible, he never says what he does. I've known
him for 8 years, why would he say on a public forum
what he does.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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January 6th, 2014 at 8:59:10 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 6th, 2014 at 10:42:59 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I surmise that casinos make more off of savvy players than they make off of people who are smart enough to know they're gonna lose.

Both will eventually lose of course, but the savvy player will keep trying way longer



Oh yeah, definitely. Betting systems are a goldmine for the casino.
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