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AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:26:43 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Quote: odiousgambit

You seem to feel you are an AP at Baccarat; frankly, zipping over to the high limit section would seem to rule out card-sorting or some such method.

What do you say to the frequently heard opinion that to be an advantage player at baccarat is not possible [assuming all is on the up and up]?

I don't and have never claimed to be an AP playing Baccarat, I've just a very savvy player.

As with all casino games (without exception) everything comes down to money management. Even BJ players when the shoe count is favorable rely on money management, i.e they increase their bets even though the dealer is just as likely to snare a BJ as the player. I simply play a game whereas the house has to buck xx odds for me to lose x number of bets in a row, even when they manage that, it's not the end of the world, unless they can do so on a consistent basis. Yesterday as an example they managed it approx 5 times in 6 shoes, twice in one shoe and no times in a few others, yet I waked away with a 150% profit of my buyin. Meanwhile I simple focus on solid MM which is what gambling hinges on, whether you perceive you have an advantage or not. Unfortunately I am not a robot and there was a rare melt down.

This thread was not started to discuss the merit of playing Baccarat, or for me to divulge my personal details for Spike, rather a little "here is a brief of what happened", surely the board members at WoV must have come across some good reads regarding recouping after a tilt.



Note that in blackjack, while it is true that the dealer and player are equally likely to get dealt a blackjack, the player gets dealt 3:2 on his blackjacks, while the dealer does not. I'll flip coins with you all day long if you give me 3:2. Hell, I'll even let you give me 6:5. Please bring lots of money.
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:27:33 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You have no idea what my standards are because
I have never talked about them, and you know it.

Short memory? You did tell me once, but never mind.

Quote:

You're the guy that laughs every time goals are
mentioned, yet if you had loss limits you wouldn't
be where you are now. I've known you for a long
time, you know better than to sit there like a
ploppie in a bad mood, and just lose and lose.

Yes you are right, I actually did leave the table mid shoe, but there was only one other open which was half way through. Then you kinda go into a mode of needing it recoup asap. Sometimes you need to read it in front to you, to mentally re-enforce it in yourself.

Quote:

On a side note, don't you just hate it when you bet one side and you meant to bet the other? There's actual research on this, it's a trick the brain does. We really have to double check our bets more often.

LOL, sometimes you bet the wrong side and it pays off as every hand is 50-50 anyway, this time it didn't and lead to dire consequences.
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:38:44 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I'm not scoffing at anything. What I'm saying is this:

If you have a mathematical edge, don't worry about the money. Swings happen. Understanding this, and really coming to terms with it, can prevent you from going on tilt. You should EXPECT to lose a bunch of money sometimes, if you play for long enough. It's not about preventing it from happening again -- it's about not losing your cool when it does happen.

If you don't have an edge and are just playing some betting progression or looking for patterns (say it ain't so) then get used to losing, because you haven't reversed anything.

I honestly don't know what you are doing, so I'm not scoffing or judging or anything. I am well aware that many games can be beaten, if you have the right information.

There is no edge in Baccarat, it is money management game which I am very good at. I don't look for patterns, I don't even look at the electronic score board, because every hand is a 50-50 outcome and non-correlated, I don't play like the rest of the muppets you generally see at tables. Yes I do play a progression, because you won't win flat betting and you need too much luck to bet positive. You can be lucky on any given hand, however to consistently win, which I have been doing is not down to luck.

This wasn't so much a swing, I do know all about them, it was a melt down of me personally and I decided it was time to seek out some inspirational reads.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:40:55 PM permalink
There is no progression of betting or money management that can overcome (or even make a dent in) the house edge.

Before you waste several thousand more dollars chasing your "grind money," why not invest in a high school statistics book so you can confirm the above-mentioned fact for yourself?
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

There is no progression of betting or money management that can overcome (or even make a dent in) the house edge.

Before you waste several thousand more dollars chasing your "grind money," why not invest in a high school statistics book so you can confirm the above-mentioned fact for yourself?

So you have recently pulled out $70k from casinos inside 4 months betting relatively small?
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:44:53 PM permalink
Quote: egalite



LOL, sometimes you bet the wrong side and it pays off as every hand is 50-50 anyway, this time it didn't and lead to dire consequences.



My point is, we think we bet where we wanted,
we can look right at it and think it's right, and
it's not. It's a malfunction of the brain and it's
common in everybody. It mostly manifests
itself in getting your left and right hand confused.

I'll mean to bet red and bet black instead and
not even realize it right in front of me. Very
disconcerting. Luckily there's a 50/50 chance
of it being correct.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:47:23 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

There is no progression of betting or money management that can overcome (or even make a dent in) the house edge.



Absolutely right. He isn't talking about that.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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January 6th, 2014 at 6:48:26 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

So you have recently pulled out $70k from casinos inside 4 months betting relatively small?



Are you sure you want to go down this road.
I wouldn't if I were you. There be math people
here..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 164
January 6th, 2014 at 6:51:39 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

My point is, we think we bet where we wanted,
we can look right at it and think it's right, and
it's not. It's a malfunction of the brain and it's
common in everybody. It mostly manifests
itself in getting your left and right hand confused.

I'll mean to bet red and bet black instead and
not even realize it right in front of me. Very
disconcerting. Luckily there's a 50/50 chance
of it being correct.

Ha, several years ago, I placed a 7.5k bet on the wrong side (the days when I used a Fibo, long gone), called the cards and even cheered the winning side, then looked at which side my bet was on, which was the wrong side. the table was full I leaned over to place my bet, even my mate who was suppose to be watching my back didn't notice the mistake. We couldn't believe it, stunned, even the dealer was confused why we cheered. Never didn't recoup from that session.
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 164
January 6th, 2014 at 6:55:32 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Are you sure you want to go down this road.
I wouldn't if I were you. There be math people
here..

I'm well aware of it, most don't play Baccarat because there is no edge, which I will freely admit. I don't let the HE concern me. I'm off now for my 2nd session after the event, it's like a job, no travel when you stay above the gaming floor.

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