pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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October 31st, 2010 at 2:29:23 PM permalink
CB Richard Ellis is a global real estate investment firm. They recently released a 100 page detailed report on the gaming business in Las Vegas and stated that they don't believe a comeback is imminent in the next year. The report is very detailed and is not available to the general public.

Several factors have been perceived as very positive. The strip gaming revenue seems to have bottomed last October 2009. There have been some stellar months in 2010 including February (Chinese New Year's) and August (last month to report as of today). Sands reported a very positive 3rd quarter including being back in the black on their Las Vegas properties.

A news article about the report was in the Las Vegas Sun written by Liz Benston .

I think it is significant that MGM Resorts are not showing improvement in either their 1st quarter and their 3rd quarter report. With gaming revenue up, you would expect at the very least, that the MGM Resorts would show more leveling off of total revenue.

Wynn will report 3rd quarter on this Tuesday. Naturally the big news will all be in Asia, but hopefully Wynn Las Vegas will at least have bottomed out.

There was an article in the New York Post that says that Carl Icahn is unloading furniture to linens from the Fontainbleau . The only reason to do that seems to be that he is going to flip the project to another developer.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 31st, 2010 at 3:14:12 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

There have been some stellar months in 2010 including February and August.
Sands reported being in the black.
I think it is significant that MGM Resorts are not showing improvement.


I wonder. We often use the term "Vegas" in a sense meaning "casino revenue in general". Now we all know that casinos do vary. Dotty's is not included in what most newspaper readers think of as "Vegas". We all realize there are various tiers involving the mega casinos. We all know individual performance will in fact vary but in general I think that "Vegas Revenue" should be comparable within a tier.

All casinos have a mix of customers, all casinos compete. Not very many would think that the Venetian competes directly with Terribles, but in general I think the major players should have revenue figures that more or less move in sync.

If this is not happening, I would suggest accounting "footnotes" be consulted. If the Venetian has turned the corner, so too should Wynn. Harrahs and MGM should be comparable revenue figures. I did not say identical. Numbers of casinos vary, tiers vary, player's whims vary, Baccarat Whales vary... but in general I would expect that there is indeed something called "Vegas Revenue" and that if one-half of the monopoly prospers, the other half should prosper also.
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
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October 31st, 2010 at 3:17:36 PM permalink
I don't believe the LV gaming problem has even come close to seeing the bottom yet. And places like Cosmopolitan do not help.
soulhunt79
soulhunt79
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October 31st, 2010 at 4:56:33 PM permalink
Ignoring debt, are there many single casinos not in the black? aka, is Luxor making money or are they just losing money and it would be better to shut down. Loans still need to be paid if they shut down, so this would just mean losing less per month.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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November 1st, 2010 at 1:04:42 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Wynn will report 3rd quarter on this Tuesday. Naturally the big news will all be in Asia, but hopefully Wynn Las Vegas will at least have bottomed out.



If Wynn Resorts' recent NASDAQ activity is any indicator, tomorrow's report will be very postive. The stock price jumped from $104 to $108 on October 28, and has continued to hold steady, peaking at $110 today. Either someone knows something, or there are some very positive thinkers out there.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 1st, 2010 at 2:49:36 PM permalink
Here's a prediction for ya: the casinos, acting collusively, will make some major casino game significantly worse in some way: maybe 11 will be a push on the comeout, or there will be a third zero on the roulette wheel, or the dealer won't lose if she makes 22. Whatever change does happen will be rapidly implemented, as if by magic, at just about every Strip casino simultaneously.

And the slimeball casino corporations will continue to lose money like a concentration camp inmate loses weight. Bankruptices will be declared. It will all be blamed on the economy (not, for example, on ludicrously incompetent management).
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 1st, 2010 at 2:52:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

If Wynn Resorts' recent NASDAQ activity is any indicator, tomorrow's report will be very postive. The stock price jumped from $104 to $108 on October 28, and has continued to hold steady, peaking at $110 today. Either someone knows something, or there are some very positive thinkers out there.



I view any jump in the market as more reflective of the fact that there's a lot of money out there all dressed up with no place to go, now that corporate debt is so risky, government debt pays virtually nothing, and only a crazy person would buy real estate.

This is not to say that you couldn't make money by taking advantage of that. I would just make sure I was prepared to pull the ripcord at any time.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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November 1st, 2010 at 4:26:57 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

the dealer won't lose if she makes 22



Just FYI, this rule is already part of at least two different blackjack variants.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
EvenBob
EvenBob
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November 1st, 2010 at 4:37:45 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Here's a prediction for ya: the casinos, acting collusively, will make some major casino game significantly worse in some way: .



Nope. There are way too many casinos in the country now, they would ALL have to change and thats not gonna happen. If Vegas changes a game, nobody will play it, they'll just wait till they get home. If anything, Vegas will loosen up a game to get people to come and play it.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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November 1st, 2010 at 4:42:27 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Nope. There are way too many casinos in the country now, they would ALL have to change and thats not gonna happen. If Vegas changes a game, nobody will play it, they'll just wait till they get home. If anything, Vegas will loosen up a game to get people to come and play it.



I take EvenBob's side in that prediction.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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