Poll

No votes (0%)
14 votes (82.35%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (17.64%)
1 vote (5.88%)
2 votes (11.76%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.88%)
2 votes (11.76%)

17 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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March 20th, 2020 at 11:16:54 AM permalink
I have heard a lot of stories about amazing luck before that it takes a lot to impress me. Expect in cases where foul play was an issue, this is perhaps the most amazing video poker hand I've ever seen, assuming a clean game. This image speaks for itself.



The probability of getting a four of a kind in a single hand after holding a pair is 45/combin(47,3) = 3/1081 =~ 1 in 360 =~ 0.28%.

The probability of this happening in 10 out of 10 hands is (3/1081)10 = 1 in 36,901,531,632,979,730,767,360,889.*

By way of comparison, the probability of winning the Powerball is 1 in 292,201,338. This hand would be like buying 3 Powerball tickets and winning on all of them.

I thought maybe this was a special game like Dream Card, but you can see the player bet 5 credits per hand.

I got the hand from this video, which the player sent me an Email about.



Direct: https://www.youtube.com/embed/F7-cnVfRkEc?start=402. Note the hand in question starts at the 6:42 point.

At first I was rather perplexed, but I'm 99.54% sure this comment about the video explains it. VLT stands for Video Lottery Terminal.

Quote: Tony Harris


3 weeks ago (edited)
VLT. Not a standard video poker machine. Same phenomenon at 5:05 holding one pair and getting 10 two pairs.

Strategy doesn't matter on these games. The outcome is predetermined when the initial hand is dealt. Doesn't matter what you hold, you'll get the same results.



The question for the poll is what are your thoughts?

* Thanks to Pari/GP for this many significant digits.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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March 20th, 2020 at 11:26:01 AM permalink
You are more likely to die in the next minute than that event having occurred randomly.

Not EVEN close.


Gaffed machine, or retouched photo.
sabre
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March 20th, 2020 at 11:31:01 AM permalink
It's a VLT. Earlier in the same video he holds 1 pair and draws 2 pair 10 times. This was discussed in https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/34362-impossibly-lucky-draws/#post758321
SkittleCar1
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March 20th, 2020 at 2:23:02 PM permalink
The lack of being excited has me questioning. I don't show a lot of emotion, but that many hands like that...I'd being at least dropping some cuss words.

EDIT: Now I see it's a VLT.
bobbartop
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March 20th, 2020 at 2:46:02 PM permalink
Why a 1250 royal?
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tringlomane
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bobbartop
March 20th, 2020 at 3:58:07 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

Why a 1250 royal?



At the 32s mark, you can see the max bet is 200 credits, or 20 per line, so he isn't betting max. The 80 for 1 SF payout is also odd. I don't know if that paytable is available in Vegas machines.
RealizeGaming
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March 20th, 2020 at 4:13:40 PM permalink
Incredible hand! At first I thought is was just dealt kings, but after looking closer I saw the player was only dealt a pair of kings. I can't even begin to imagine how rare that would be to get the other kings on each line!
RealizeGaming
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March 20th, 2020 at 4:16:29 PM permalink
This got me thinking a bit. What is the probability of the player getting the other two kings in the exact same position in each hand? For example, the king of hearts appearing in the same spot on the draw of each game.
onenickelmiracle
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March 20th, 2020 at 4:34:26 PM permalink
If anyone wants to keep an eye on the reflection in the background of the slot machines, see if anyone walks past the entire video. I need more than a video on this one.

Oh wait someone walked by soon enough, looks good, unless....
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sabre
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March 20th, 2020 at 5:20:45 PM permalink
Quote: RealizeGaming

Incredible hand! At first I thought is was just dealt kings, but after looking closer I saw the player was only dealt a pair of kings. I can't even begin to imagine how rare that would be to get the other kings on each line!



It's not an incredible hand. It's a VLT.
ThatDonGuy
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March 20th, 2020 at 5:47:53 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

It's not an incredible hand. It's a VLT.


You mean it's not just a coincidence that hands 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, and 10 all got the King of Spades in the second position and the King of Hearts in the fourth - not only that, but hands 4 and 9 also both got the 6 of clubs in the first position?
sabre
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March 20th, 2020 at 6:13:23 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

You mean it's not just a coincidence that hands 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, and 10 all got the King of Spades in the second position and the King of Hearts in the fourth - not only that, but hands 4 and 9 also both got the 6 of clubs in the first position?



I'll concede that the programming is awful.
AxelWolf
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bobbartop
March 20th, 2020 at 7:04:09 PM permalink
My first question was why is this guy slowing down playing in a particular manner and video recording a Pair of Kings?

My first instinct was thinking there's something not right.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sabre
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March 20th, 2020 at 7:31:15 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

My first question was why is this guy slowing down playing in a particular manner and video recording a Pair of Kings?

My first instinct was thinking there's something not right.



No. I think the guy had no clue how unlikely the hand would be on real video poker and how unremarkable it would be on a VLT.
onenickelmiracle
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March 20th, 2020 at 9:57:29 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

My first question was why is this guy slowing down playing in a particular manner and video recording a Pair of Kings?

My first instinct was thinking there's something not right.

He wants to make money making a 10 minute video because 10 minute videos make more money on YT. Speculating he might have had some sense or idea this would happen eventually. Otherwise, I don't know.
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AxelWolf
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March 21st, 2020 at 12:06:09 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Speculating he might have had some sense or idea this would happen eventually.

Exactly, which made me realize this wasn't a normal class 3 type of machine, or something else was up.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
onenickelmiracle
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March 21st, 2020 at 6:15:12 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Exactly, which made me realize this wasn't a normal class 3 type of machine, or something else was up.



Don't tell him he has early-onset dementia.
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DRich
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March 21st, 2020 at 8:12:59 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

I'll concede that the programming is awful.



That is what I was thinking. I have written VLT video poker games and I am pretty sure none of mine would do that.
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DJTeddyBear
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March 21st, 2020 at 11:27:00 AM permalink
It's a VLT. The odds are a lot lower (higher?) than Wiz' math suggest.

What I really wonder is, what's the odds of it happening, vs the odds of it happening when he happens to be recording.



But, as I often respond when a new member asks, "What's the odds of ... happening?"
I'll still say, shit happens.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
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