Progressive Question
Mickey states that he finds advantage opportunities when a progressive is large enough to overcome a 5% house edge. I have never seen progressives like he describes in this Interview. It seems to me a progressive would have to be very large to make a game like that positive. The video poker games I play are 97%. How big does a royal progressive have to be to overcome a 3% house advantage? Can anyone make a profit playing slots and Keno today?
Quote: SingleCoinVPI recently read about Micky Crimm. I had never heard his name before, so I Googled him and found his interview on Bob Dancer's radio show. In this interview, he describes making money playing advantage slots and keno games in Montana. Having recently made a trip to Montana, this interested me. All the VP I found in Montana was class II.
Mickey states that he finds advantage opportunities when a progressive is large enough to overcome a 5% house edge. I have never seen progressives like he describes in this Interview. It seems to me a progressive would have to be very large to make a game like that positive. The video poker games I play are 97%. How big does a progressive have to be to overcome a 3% house advantage?
VP in Montana is definitely NOT Class II!
Quote: SingleCoinVPWe drove from Seattle to Denver on vacation. When we found a casino, we stopped to check out the games. Montana was full of tiny casinos. It seemed there was one on every block. We walked into two of them. The video poker machines we found were definitely class II machines. The cards were automatically held. That's not my question. Can a progressive ever get large enough to overcome a 3-5% house edge? Could an AP make a living playing games like that?
Yes, continue reading all of the posts and articles from Mickey Crimm and he explains exactly what he does. It is a lot of work and a lot of travel scouting locations, and you won't get rich but you could probably make a good living doing it ($50,000 to $100,000).
I believe most of his plays in Montana are on video keno.
That's because you're too busy obsessing over Bob Dancer and defending your one coin video poker play.Quote: SingleCoinVPI am struggling with what constitutes an advantage game. I can see how you can tell the odds on a video poker machine. How can anyone tell the odds on a slot machine? If you have two slot machines side by side and one has a bigger progressive, is that machine better? How about Keno? I never though Keno was beatable.
I can't say for sure, but if Mickey has been reading all your posts here, I have a feeling you're the type of guy he would want to curb stomp.
And no, I don't advocate or wish anybody to be curb-stomped.
Over the years I have been playing VP, I have been told many times that I have advantage games available to me but I refuse to play them. When I ask sincere questions, I get answers like that above. I would play advantage games if I found one. So far, I haven't found one. Perhaps I don't know what an advantage game is?Quote: AxelWolfThat's because you're too busy obsessing over Bob Dancer and defending your one coin video poker play.
I can't say for sure, but if Mickey has been reading all your posts here, I have a feeling you're the type of guy he would want to curb stomp.
And no, I don't advocate or wish anybody to be curb-stomped.
This makes we wonder why these forums exist? Are they here to provide a place where players can brag about their accomplishments or a place where people are taught to be better players? Micky Crimm seems like an interesting fellow. He doesn't play mega expensive games. He doesn't live in Vegas. He claims to win playing games that Bob Dancer never talks about. If he can make money in Montana of all places, perhaps someone can do the same in Florida?
Quote: SingleCoinVPI am struggling with what constitutes an advantage game. I can see how you can tell the odds on a video poker machine. How can anyone tell the odds on a slot machine? If you have two slot machines side by side and one has a bigger progressive, is that machine better? How about Keno? I never though Keno was beatable.
The odds on Keno are not only as easy to determine as they are on Video Poker, but unlike Video Poker, there is no, "Optimal," strategy which also makes the odds/probabilities of the base game constant. In other words, you hit the button and there is no mathematically correct decision to make other than whether or not you should play.
The keno plays in Montana are predicated upon this concept, and without giving away too much information, positive situations can often be found on higher probability events as opposed to low probability ones. If you don't understand the meaning of the previous sentence, PM me.
In any case, a 'straight up' Keno game is extremely easy to determine. You use the Keno Calculator on Wizard of Odds and plug in the pays appropriately. Other Keno games may have situations or 'Special' numbers where you have to determine the probability (and value) of different results in order to determine the overall value of the base game as well as the added value of the Progressive. Rarer are Keno games where the probability of certain events cannot be known without a ton of observation, and even then, only a highly educated guess can be made.
Quote: SingleCoinVPCan anyone make a profit playing slots and Keno today?
Yes
Quote: tringlomaneVP in Montana is definitely NOT Class II!
I didn't read everything here, but, I want to reiterate:
VP IN MONTANA IS DEFINITELY NOT CLASS II !!!!!
Quote: smurgerburgerWhy on earth does it recommend wrong holds? So as not to confuse people on penalty card deviations?
I can’t speak for the game kings, but the Spielos state in the rules screen that the holds are based on the highest probability of drawing to a winning hand.
Is the paytable the only factor that determines the house edge? Or can houses adjust how loose or tight the machines are without changing the paytables. I've heard "rumors" that machines tend to pay out more at the end of a period to meet the required payouts.
Quote: BlueEagleSpeaking of a progressive question, hopefully I can interject my own (silly newbie) questions. Does a progressive video poker machine have the same odds of winning as a non-progressive machine? Does a certain portion of the bet go to the progressive? I know a place that starts the 25-cent progressive at $1500 and wondered if the machines could be set by the house to pay out less often in order to pay for the progressive...
Is the paytable the only factor that determines the house edge? Or can houses adjust how loose or tight the machines are without changing the paytables. I've heard "rumors" that machines tend to pay out more at the end of a period to meet the required payouts.
The progressive machines work the same as any other video poker machine. The casino does not alter it in any way. Often you will see pay tables that are not as good on progressives but that is not always the case.
Sams Town has a bank of machines that start the .25 cent royal at 1500 and the pay tables are pretty good as well.
Quote: SingleCoinVPI recently read about Micky Crimm. I had never heard his name before, so I Googled him and found his interview on Bob Dancer's radio show. In this interview, he describes making money playing advantage slots and keno games in Montana. Having recently made a trip to Montana, this interested me. All the VP games I saw in Montana were class II.
Mickey states that he finds advantage opportunities when a progressive is large enough to overcome a 5% house edge. I have never seen progressives like he describes in this Interview. It seems to me a progressive would have to be very large to make a game like that positive. The video poker games I play are 97%. How big does a royal progressive have to be to overcome a 3% house advantage? Can anyone make a profit playing slots and Keno today?
Ya you were looking at the wrong games. Mickey makes a living off of KENO progressives. He has a "route" he scouts and only plays when the progressive is high enough to push it positive. Sure he will hit a video poker progressive at times but keno is his bread and butter.
Quote: vegas
Sams Town has a bank of machines that start the .25 cent royal at 1500 and the pay tables are pretty good as well.
There are many progressives in Nevada where the $0.25 progressive starts at $2,500. I used to know of $1 progressives that started at $10,000. I don't know if any still exist.
Quote: DRichThere are many progressives in Nevada where the $0.25 progressive starts at $2,500. I used to know of $1 progressives that started at $10,000. I don't know if any still exist.
2.5 times the normal royal. Wow. Guess I have to travel around a bit more on my next visit.
Quote: BlueEagleSpeaking of a progressive question, hopefully I can interject my own (silly newbie) questions. Does a progressive video poker machine have the same odds of winning as a non-progressive machine? Does a certain portion of the bet go to the progressive? I know a place that starts the 25-cent progressive at $1500 and wondered if the machines could be set by the house to pay out less often in order to pay for the progressive...
Is the paytable the only factor that determines the house edge? Or can houses adjust how loose or tight the machines are without changing the paytables. I've heard "rumors" that machines tend to pay out more at the end of a period to meet the required payouts.
Yes, for a video poker machine, the pay table is the only factor that determines the house edge. That's because the machine's virtual deck matches a real deck. (For example, the probability of making a flush by drawing to four-to-a-flush is 9/47 for a jacks-or-better video poker machine and for a real deck.) As the Wizard writes on https://wizardofvegas.com/guides/video-poker/, "Video poker is a fair video representation of a single-player draw poker game."
The NJ Gaming Enforcement regulations state the above this way:
Quote: N.J.A.C. 13:69E-1.28A... (g) A slot machine game that requires strategy choices, such as video poker, shall:
1. Have its theoretical RTP calculated based upon the player exercising optimal strategy during game play;
2. Disclose optimal strategy to achieve the highest theoretical RTP; or
3. Provide mathematically sufficient information for the patron to derive optimal strategy in order to achieve the highest theoretical RTP. ...
Quote: vegas2.5 times the normal royal. Wow. Guess I have to travel around a bit more on my next visit.
Have fun playing 6/5 JoB
PROGRESSIVE VS NON-PROGRESSIVE VIDEO POKER JACKPOTS
https://www.realmoneyaction.com/video-poker/progressive-vs-non-progressive-video-poker-jackpots/
Quote: MaxPenHave fun playing 6/5 JoB
6-5 DDB with a 2500 reset is fairly common in bars around town. There's a lot of progressives for quarters that reset above $1000. Some are not bad, some are never playable. I'm not going to comment on the decent ones I have found. The blisters on my feet, I earned them myself. The info stays where it should, in my own personal notes.
(I'm not talking to you, Max, I suspect you already know more than I do anyway.)*
ssshhhhh, be very very quiet, Axel might be listening.
Where we play video poker advantage games are extinct. There may be a few still lurking somewhere. This does not keep me from playing video poker. The vast majority of the time I play max coins. I do this for two reasons, I like the comps and I like hitting $1,000 royals. I do play a small amount of dollar video poker. I do this at the end of the day, so I don't feed my winnings back into the machines. I can't change the games at the Hard Rock, but I can hold my cost to play to a reasonable level.
None of what I do has anything whatsoever to do with making a profit. There is no possible way anyone can beat the games we play long term. I don't get paid for playing advantage games computer perfect. When I get paid, it's for being lucky.
Not everyone can accept the same level of risk. A progressive may be a winner on paper and a loser in reality. Professional gamblers take those risks all the time. Personally, I would rather risk my money where I have more control over the result and the profits are more than a few percent. Some people believe the stock market is a casino. If it is, I have been beating that casino for years. Many of you have as well. Like video poker, there are proven strategies. They don't involve the whims of a RNG and you never get banned or your comps downgraded. Gambling to me is entertainment and nothing else.Quote: SOOPOOHow positive it has to get to make it worthwhile is a personal decision, also factoring in your bankroll, and the opportunity cost that you are losing by not doing something better.
So basically you were just trying to call in to question Mickey Crimm's claims in a coy way.Quote: SingleCoinVPNot everyone can accept the same level of risk. A progressive may be a winner on paper and a loser in reality. Professional gamblers take those risks all the time. Personally, I would rather risk my money where I have more control over the result and the profits are more than a few percent. Some people believe the stock market is a casino. If it is, I have been beating that casino for years. Many of you have as well. Like video poker, there are proven strategies. They don't involve the whims of a RNG and you never get banned or your comps downgraded. Gambling to me is entertainment and nothing else.
That's kind of what I assumed in the first place.
Not true. I'm am curious about Mickey Crimm and what he does in a casino. Here is a guy that doesn't require taking huge risks to beat the casino. I can get behind that concept. Compare that with telling people $5 games are more profitable than playing quarters. Even if it's true, someone is going to get hurt and it's not going to be a casino.Quote: AxelWolfSo basically you were just trying to call in to question Mickey Crimm's claims in a coy way.
That's kind of what I assumed in the first place.
I am not a crusader for or against APs, professional gamblers or anyone who posts on this website. Most of the casino goers that I know enjoy a day at the casino as an escape not a job. None of them have positive games to play. All of them pay to play. I want these players to be part of the discussion.
Quote: Mission146I can’t speak for the game kings, but the Spielos state in the rules screen that the holds are based on the highest probability of drawing to a winning hand.
Mission146,
So, for example, if you're dealt AKQJ in hearts and the spade A, these Spielos will autohold AA for a guaranteed winner?
Dog Hand
Quote: SingleCoinVPNot true. I'm am curious about Mickey Crimm and what he does in a casino. Here is a guy that doesn't require taking huge risks to beat the casino. I can get behind that concept. Compare that with telling people $5 games are more profitable than playing quarters. Even if it's true, someone is going to get hurt and it's not going to be a casino.
I am not a crusader for or against APs, professional gamblers or anyone who posts on this website. Most of the casino goers that I know enjoy a day at the casino as an escape not a job. None of them have positive games to play. All of them pay to play. I want these players to be part of the discussion.
You are wrong. Plain and simple. I am not an AP, but tagged along with Axel once. There are so many opportunities out there if you know where to look, and what to do. NONE of the opportunities were because the regular payout of a machine exceeded 100%. I won’t divulge any of them, as public knowledge might result in them going away.
But you must be aware of Ultimate X vulturing , as the easiest example. And days where there are big comp multipliers.
So yes, you (and me!) do not take advantage of the casinos. But there are a dozen or so on this forum that do, and make a living off of it. And it’s not rocket science. It takes knowledge, a bankroll, and hard work.
Geez man! Just because you haven’t figured it out, or that it might not even be worth it to you, stop with the BS that it can’t be done.
Quote: DogHandMission146,
So, for example, if you're dealt AKQJ in hearts and the spade A, these Spielos will autohold AA for a guaranteed winner?
Dog Hand
I don’t know the answer, but you can always override the auto hold. If you get familiar with the bad auto holds, you can play very fast and just watch out for the bad ones.
Quote: rxwineAre any of the progressive kenos in Montana new? I don't see anyone making them anymore.
Yes, they are still being made.
There aren’t many manufacturers is the MT market because they don’t follow the mainstream rules (for instance, $2 max bet and $800 max win). All machines are multi-game, with maybe 20 themes, including keno, poker, and slots (called “line games” in MT). They are also allowed to have bingo, but it’s not common.
Most of the games are not strictly progressive, but many are banking games, like Buffalo Diamond, where the advantage comes from a high number of accumulated free games.
imo, others think exactly that.Quote: SingleCoinVPThis makes we wonder why these forums exist?
I say to run ads and see what happens
yes, certainly. bragging is ALL talk as no one really cares.Quote: SingleCoinVPAre they here to provide a place where players can brag about their accomplishments
one can lead a horse to water...Quote: SingleCoinVPor a place where people are taught to be better players?
as one who never did lead a horse to water
but cleaned many water dishes for dogs and cats (I play no favorites)
what?
ah yes, ALL APs (has been documented) say ALL APs always win $$$, always...
and that can be taken to the bank (is that bragging or BSHT?)
Why would any AP want to give away their secret ATM methods?
to make things easier, those saying they are an AP, do not believe them.
(does not matter if they are lying 100% or telling the truth 100%)
LIfe is so much simpler that way (and WAY more fun)
too bad (or good) that
many believe everything they read
There was a time when I doubted it could be done. I played positive games on videopoker.com and proved to myself I was wrong. What I doubt now is if it's worth the effort.Quote: SOOPOOGeez man! Just because you haven’t figured it out, or that it might not even be worth it to you, stop with the BS that it can’t be done.
Suppose you have a $100,000 bankroll. You can play 1% advantage VP games and take your chances or you can buy $100,000 worth of ATT stock and make 5% for doing nothing. I can give you 20 more examples. Of course you wouldn't be able to call yourself a casino AP or berate quarter players on this forum. Gambling is just not that good of a business plan.
These days I have absolutely no issue with advantage play strategy or accepting the fact that some people make a profit off gambling. That's not why I play the game. Why waste my time working at something that is hard work, pays poorly, you have to keep secret and if you get too good, they ban you?
Quote: SingleCoinVPThere was a time when I doubted it could be done. I played positive games on videopoker.com and proved to myself I was wrong. What I doubt now is if it's worth the effort.
Suppose you have a $100,000 bankroll. You can play 1% advantage VP games and take your chances or you can buy $100,000 worth of ATT stock and make 5% for doing nothing. I can give you 20 more examples. Of course you wouldn't be able to call yourself a casino AP or berate quarter players on this forum. Gambling is just not that good of a business plan.
These days I have absolutely no issue with advantage play strategy or accepting the fact that some people make a profit off gambling. That's not why I play the game. Why waste my time working at something that is hard work, pays poorly, you have to keep secret and if you get too good, they ban you?
I wish all people had your thought process and would draw the same conclusions as you.
Quote: SingleCoinVP
Suppose you have a $100,000 bankroll. You can play 1% advantage VP games and take your chances or you can buy $100,000 worth of ATT stock and make 5% for doing nothing. I can give you 20 more examples. Of course you wouldn't be able to call yourself a casino AP or berate quarter players on this forum. Gambling is just not that good of a business plan.
You know how bad your math is there, right? Say you used your $100k bankroll to make $25 spins on a game with a 1% advantage. Say you could do that 200x/hour. It'd take 100 hours to match your $5k return on the AT&T investment. 100 hours is about 2 hours/week. Could you do it more? What if you could make $125 spins?
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhat if you don't hit a royal flush in ten years of play? What if you bought $100,000 worth of Amazon stock instead and it split into two Trillion dollar companies? On September 3, 1929 the Dow Jones was 452. Today it's 2,759. How many people have become millionaires playing VP vs. investing in the markets? Check your math.
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhat if you don't hit a royal flush in ten years of play?
You're becoming annoying.
Quote: DogHandMission146,
So, for example, if you're dealt AKQJ in hearts and the spade A, these Spielos will autohold AA for a guaranteed winner?
Dog Hand
That’s generally one of the extremely few exceptions.
Quote: SingleCoinVPCan a 72 year old player play as accurately as a 30 year old or sit in a chair for hours?
A 72 year old should be sitting in hospice trying to deteremine if they are going up to heaven or down to hell.
Do you think there is video poker in either place?Quote: DRichA 72 year old should be sitting in hospice trying to deteremine if they are going up to heaven or down to hell.
Quote: SingleCoinVPDo you think there is video poker in either place?
In hell, all royals pay 250.
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhat if you don't hit a royal flush in ten years of play?
There are people who have gone over 100 years without hitting a royal flush. There are other people who hit them every week. I would love to be in either of those categories.
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhat if you bought $100,000 worth of Amazon stock instead and it split into two Trillion dollar companies?
If I did that, it would still be permissible for me to earn money at casino games.
What if some of us bought stock and did not become millionaires?
Quote: SingleCoinVPOn September 3, 1929 the Dow Jones was 452. Today it's 2,759. How many people have become millionaires playing VP vs. investing in the markets? Check your math.
I wonder if there has ever been someone who has bought stock and not become a millionaire. If such a person were to ever exist, would you grant them permission to play video poker differently than you do?
featuring Bally's triple trouble video poker.Quote: CrystalMathIn hell, all royals pay 250.
Assuming someone is smart enough and has the ability to make millions in the stock market due to skill, this AP stuff should fairly easy to figure out.Quote: SingleCoinVP
Even if there isn't positive video poker and slots at any casinos you go to there's a variety of games online you can play with an advantage... if done correctly.
Don't want to be at cooped up at home playing online? You can actually go into the casinos or anywhere for that matter and bring your device and play. So you can take your entertainment anywhere with you in the world and actually have an advantage playing whatever limit your comfortable with.
I have actually done this while fishing and while playing video poker and live poker at a casino. Obviously, I was using auto spin on slots while I was playing video poker in the casino. Now that I think of it I was also playing positive the EV Keno at a bar while playing slots and video poker online with an advantage on my mobile device.
p.s. That's the beauty of AP you don't have to risk a ton for it to be profitable and make money, you can do whatever you feel comfortable with. Generally the higher you like to play the more difficult it is to find a good advantage. I think you're stuck thinking everyone plays high limit risky video poker like Bob dancer does sometimes. You said you read all of his books, I'm certain he talked about plays that required very little bankroll on lower limits that had a nice earn.
