How to select a VP game offering best returns in the "long run"

Here are 3 VP games listed in vpfree2.com for Main Street Station, which offers scratchers for natural quads ($2 minimum to $5,000)

JOB 99.54% ER, 9/6

DB 99.11% ER, 9/7

DB 100.17% ER, 10/7 (but requires $3 coin-in to earn 1 point)

Does any 1 game listed above offer a better return in the long run? I'm not sure, but I'll guess "the long run" means at LEAST 50,000 to 100,000 hands?

What calculation do you make to reach that decision? (That way, I can do similar calculations for other games, like Deuces Wild, etc.).

Assumption: playing max credits on a $0.25 machine, or $1.25/deal

If playing $0.50 games (or higher) makes a difference, please explain how much difference, and why?

Thanks in advance for your help!!

Those return numbers you already have only get more accurate the more hands you play. I assume what you are trying to ask is what the variance is like for each game ? Jacks or Better has lower variance than Double Bonus. So playing the Double Bonus you are more likely to see bigger positive and negative streaks and on average will need a larger bankroll to cover your play.

I'll give you a quick response to hold you over until the smarter and more knowledgeable members reply. My assumption is that the expected returns are in the long run, therefore the game with the highest expected return offers the better return in the long run. I'm interested to find out if I'm wrong.

Quote: DiscreteMaths2

Those return numbers you already have only get more accurate the more hands you play. I assume what you are trying to ask is what the variance is like for each game ? Jacks or Better has lower variance than Double Bonus. So playing the Double Bonus you are more likely to see bigger positive and negative streaks and on average will need a larger bankroll to cover your play.

I wasn't thinking of variance, but now that you mention it, I can better appreciate why I actually did experience more +/- streaks playing DB vs playing JoB.

The session bankroll I've used for years has been $100/day, because I used to play Deuces Wild and a $20 coin-in would last 2-3 hours. Maybe I was just lucky all those years? Our stays average 4-7 days only. I've hit a Royal Flush about 7 years ago on nickel play for DW at the Fremont, but haven't enjoyed that experience since.

I'm only asking about DB and JoB because I just played in a DDB VP Tournament at the Cal (TR follows soon).

Thanks for your input, and any more comments from anyone!

Quote: BlueEagle

I'll give you a quick response to hold you over until the smarter and more knowledgeable members reply. My assumption is that the expected returns are in the long run, therefore the game with the highest expected return offers the better return in the long run. I'm interested to find out if I'm wrong.

I'm just as interested in seeing what the more experienced folks have to share . . . ??????

Quote: LostWages

Here are 3 VP games listed in vpfree2.com for Main Street Station, which offers scratchers for natural quads ($2 minimum to $5,000)

JOB 99.54% ER, 9/6

DB 99.11% ER, 9/7

DB 100.17% ER, 10/7 (but requires $3 coin-in to earn 1 point)

Does any 1 game listed above offer a better return in the long run? I'm not sure, but I'll guess "the long run" means at LEAST 50,000 to 100,000 hands?

What calculation do you make to reach that decision? (That way, I can do similar calculations for other games, like Deuces Wild, etc.).

Assumption: playing max credits on a $0.25 machine, or $1.25/deal

If playing $0.50 games (or higher) makes a difference, please explain how much difference, and why?

Thanks in advance for your help!!

I'd add about 9 coins to any quad. In that case, 10-7 DB will return 100.59%. If you're Emerald, add .10%, (1/3 points), for a total of 100.69%. Forget about bounceback, I can't figure out what any Boyd Property is doing in that category now.

Do the same thing with JoB, add 9 coins to quads, and it returns 99.97%. Add full points for Emerald, .30%, totals 100.27%.

So, there are better plays for quarters, but I hope this answers your question as for Main Street. Hope you scratch off 5K. Good luck.

By the way, I consider 3 million hands a decent run at the "long run". Playing full time, that's about a year and a half. Get your software and run high speed sims, and get your own feel for the long run. You must have software to play this. I've seen newbies on these boards argue that they don't need software. That's just stupid.

$100 a day bankroll will get you more hands than DDB. Most sessions you'll lose your BR quicker playing DDB, but over the long haul make out slightly better. JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.

Quote: billryan

JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.

And possible thoughts of suicide.

Quote: billryan

$100 a day bankroll will get you more hands than DDB. Most sessions you'll lose your BR quicker playing DDB, but over the long haul make out slightly better. JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.

I thought he was primarily asking about JoB vs DB at Main Street (not DDB). What is JoB, for quarters, with a .27% edge going to do for him? Especially if there is no bounceback. He'll never win anything, maybe not even in the "long run".

Quote: billryan

$100 a day bankroll will get you more hands than DDB. Most sessions you'll lose your BR quicker playing DDB, but over the long haul make out slightly better. JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.

Saturday, a lady sitting next to me burned through over $1000 on 25¢ single line DDB (8/5 sadly) in a few short hours!! The best hand she caught was quad 3's no kicker. And this was whole I was next to her. She was there for a few hours before I moved next to her from another machine.

The one with the highest return is.....the one with the highest returns.

1 N0 is when EV = 1 SD

Figure out how many degrees of certainty you want, then figure out how many SD's that is, then determine how many rounds that is by using EV=SD formula.

Quote: RS

The one with the highest return is.....the one with the highest returns.

1 N0 is when EV = 1 SD

Figure out how many degrees of certainty you want, then figure out how many SD's that is, then determine how many rounds that is by using EV=SD formula.

English please. Not everyone speaks geek.

Quote: billryan

English please. Not everyone speaks geek.

RS's post looks like a thinly veiled insult. Nuclear ban?

Quote: bobbartop

I'd add about 9 coins to any quad. In that case, 10-7 DB will return 100.59%. If you're Emerald, add .10%, (1/3 points), for a total of 100.69%. Forget about bounceback, I can't figure out what any Boyd Property is doing in that category now.

Do the same thing with JoB, add 9 coins to quads, and it returns 99.97%. Add full points for Emerald, .30%, totals 100.27%.

Playing VP that offers scratchers for a natural 4 should improve the ER, as you've described. However, I do not understand where to add the 9 coins to make DB 10/7 100.17% to 100.59%. (I'm still just a Ruby). It sounds like simple arithmetic?

Thanks for providing an estimate of the "long run" around 3 million hands (full time play for a year and a half)! I understand the value of using software to run sims, but I'm not yet ready to try it.

I forgot to explain that I selected 3 VP games at MSS because I'm not able to fight the severe smoke conditions at the nearby Cal. Actually, I should add more "favor" points (3 coins?) to the Boar's Head Bar for great customer service, double shots on my Bailey's, proximity to the restrooms, buffet, & 777, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a relatively smoke-free environment compared to the rest of the casino! Hopping around to other casinos is not a current option. Thanks for your time and attention!

Add 9 coins to any four of a kind.

The scratchers offer $2 at a minimum.. up to $5000. I add 9 quarters to 4ofaK and Straight/Royal flushes when I'm factoring in my return as well. You can't know exactly what the return is on the scratch cards, but it has to be something more than $2 (8 quarters), but given the super majority of the scratchers are $2, I add 9 quarters to cover the potential extra.

You only do this at MSS, no where else.

Quote: RS

Add 9 coins to any four of a kind.

And straight flush and royal flush.

Quote: LostWages

Playing VP that offers scratchers for a natural 4 should improve the ER, as you've described. However, I do not understand where to add the 9 coins to make DB 10/7 100.17% to 100.59%. (I'm still just a Ruby). It sounds like simple arithmetic?

Thanks for providing an estimate of the "long run" around 3 million hands (full time play for a year and a half)! I understand the value of using software to run sims, but I'm not yet ready to try it.

I forgot to explain that I selected 3 VP games at MSS because I'm not able to fight the severe smoke conditions at the nearby Cal. Actually, I should add more "favor" points (3 coins?) to the Boar's Head Bar for great customer service, double shots on my Bailey's, proximity to the restrooms, buffet, & 777, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a relatively smoke-free environment compared to the rest of the casino! Hopping around to other casinos is not a current option. Thanks for your time and attention!

Lost Wages, please do yourself the best favor you can possibly do, get the software. Off the top of my head I think it's less than $50, best money you'll ever invest. Please do it for yourself. There's Bob Dancer's software, there's Wolf, both excellent, and there's WinPoker, still excellent.

Lost Wages, have you considered playing at Four Queens?

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: RS

Add 9 coins to any four of a kind.

And straight flush and royal flush.

I did not know this. Are you absolutely sure? If so, thanks, I learned something. And I'll have to bump up my numbers a tiny bit.

Quote: bobbartop

Lost Wages, please do yourself the best favor you can possibly do, get the software. Off the top of my head I think it's less than $50, best money you'll ever invest. Please do it for yourself. There's Bob Dancer's software, there's Wolf, both excellent, and there's WinPoker, still excellent.

Lost Wages, have you considered playing at Four Queens?

I've wanted to play at 4Q for the longest time, but my spouse prefers not to go there. Perhaps on a day she goes shopping, I will venture out!

Thanks for the encouragement to get the software - intellectually, I concur with you 100%. It's not the money, but rather the amount of disposable "free" time available after completing "honeydew" time. :-)

Several other posters chimed in about adding the 8 or 9 coins, but I'm still stumped as to "where" I'm adding it to get those ER % increased. I understand this is a situation (scratchers) unique to MSS. I think my description of adding 3 coins for the Boar's Head Bar conditions seals the deal for me (for now!).

Thanks again!

Quote: bobbartop

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: RS

Add 9 coins to any four of a kind.

And straight flush and royal flush.

I did not know this. Are you absolutely sure? If so, thanks, I learned something. And I'll have to bump up my numbers a tiny bit.

Absolutely positive. They will award a scratcher for a SF or RF.

Quote: LostWages

I've wanted to play at 4Q for the longest time, but my spouse prefers not to go there. Perhaps on a day she goes shopping, I will venture out!

Thanks for the encouragement to get the software - intellectually, I concur with you 100%. It's not the money, but rather the amount of disposable "free" time available after completing "honeydew" time. :-)

Several other posters chimed in about adding the 8 or 9 coins, but I'm still stumped as to "where" I'm adding it to get those ER % increased. I understand this is a situation (scratchers) unique to MSS. I think my description of adding 3 coins for the Boar's Head Bar conditions seals the deal for me (for now!).

Thanks again!

I'm sorry, I skipped the "9 coins" because I thought the other guys covered that. I guess what I meant, Lost Wages, is that when I am figuring the return with the extra from the scratchers, I would be adding that into my SOFTWARE, and then clicking a button that tells me the return. I sure couldn't figure it out by myself, I'm a math dummy. :-)

Quote: LostWages

I've wanted to play at 4Q for the longest time, but my spouse prefers not to go there. Perhaps on a day she goes shopping, I will venture out!

Lost Wages, this sounds like a problem for the Dr.Laura Board, not Wizard of Vegas.

PUT YOUR FOOT DOWN, MAN! :-)

Quote: bobbartop

I'm sorry, I skipped the "9 coins" because I thought the other guys covered that. I guess what I meant, Lost Wages, is that when I am figuring the return with the extra from the scratchers, I would be adding that into my SOFTWARE, and then clicking a button that tells me the return. I sure couldn't figure it out by myself, I'm a math dummy. :-)

Ah, ok! Mystery/Misery solved. Get the software!

Quote: LostWages

Ah, ok! Mystery/Misery solved. Get the software!

I assume the software runs simulations based on bankroll and variance for possible outcomes?

If you're just looking for the return of games, the Wizard offers free video poker calculator and analyzer which you can modify the pay table to whatever you see (and add the 9 coins to the top payouts for MSS specific situation) and it gives you the payback percentage...

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/

Quote: Romes

If you're just looking for the return of games, the Wizard offers free video poker calculator and analyzer which you can modify the pay table to whatever you see (and add the 9 coins to the top payouts for MSS specific situation) and it gives you the payback percentage...

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/

Y'know, I must have seen (ignored) this calculator and analyzer dozens of times. I have never read as clear an explanation on using the VP analyzer as clear as the one you provided!! Thanks for encouraging me to be more number-conscious when the situation calls for it. Math is helping ask better questions now, because with numbers there is a common denominator (pun not intended!).

MSS is currently the only casino offering scratcher cards for a natural four of a kind. The discussions elsewhere in the WoV say that scratchers are also given for a straight flush and Royal Flush ("I swear . . . ". "For sure . . .". "I think . . . "). To end the debate on that topic, I re-read the Rules for "Score with Four":

http://static.boydgaming.net/mainstreet/media/downloads/Sw4_Rack_Card_web.pdf

There was no mention of straight flushes or Royal Flushes. What to do? Well, if I can ask a PB for comps after only playing 25 min of $5 BJ, I figured I could pick up the phone and talk to the MSS Slots Director or one of his staff to ask about scratchers. I was able to talk to the Asst Director of Slots, and he assured me that scratchers are indeed given to a natural four, a straight flush, OR a Royal Flush. So there!

Here's my new insights for the 3 MSS VP games in my OP: JoB 9/6, DB 9/7, and DB 10/7.

I added 9 more coins to the payout for quads, Straight Flush (StFl) and Royal Flush (RF). I understand the minimum value is $2 or 8 coins. Other posters said to add at least 9 coins, which would very conservatively cover the potential of getting as many as 20,000 coins from a $5,000 scratcher - but admittedly, those situations are rare. My first quad ever with a scratcher paid me $3.00!

The Asst Dir Slots mentioned in passing that the jackpot $5,000 card is won about once every 2-3 months! He assured me he would remind all slot attendants about when scratcher cards are awarded, since it wasn't written down at the time I visited the MSS. I reminded the Asst Director that the current Rules & Regulations on the MSS website do not say anything about getting a scratcher card for a straight flush or Royal Flush, and he said he was aware of that.

Michael Shackleford aka The Wiz talks about . . . the very very very very very very very rare $5,000 (I have been assured that such cards DO get given out on occasion). The average value seems to be about $2.25, which adds 0.3-0.4% to .25 games; this is not a bad little bonus. Be warned, slot club points on the 10/7 DB games, as well as the other good games on those machines, are awarded at 1/3 the normal rate. (The usual amount is $1 coin-in per point, which you get if you play at the bar.

Here's an example of using the analyzer for games offering scratchers:



And the analyzer calculated:



I tabulated all 3 VP games to show the the improved ER% after adding 9 coins for quads, straight flush, and Royal Flush.

JoB 9/6	DB 9/7	DB 10/7
99.54	99.11	100.17
99.99	99.55	100.62
.45	.44	.55

Some WoV members said that your variance is lower and your BR will last longer playing JoB vs DB, but that in the "long run" (uh-oh! 3 million hands?) one will get "slightly better" outcomes playing DB.

Is there something else that should be said about playing JoB vs DB?

Question: if the ER for DB 10/7 is at 100.62% (even if you need $3 coin-in per point), why doesn't the MSS advertise this more aggressively? Is the slight increase in ER not that significant? Are there some issues and considerations I have overlooked? I'm thinking that any "free" advantage should be advertised, that's all.

Quote: LostWages

...Is there something else that should be said about playing JoB vs DB?

lol play JoB for now while VP is young and exciting to you. After some time you'll want to hit bigger hands more often, and DB/etc makes for bigger hands/pays every now and then (at the cost of 2 pair just pushing, etc). Thus DB/DDB/etc are games where you play for the higher payoffs specifically, which of course will bring more of a "feast or famine" variance if you hit or don't hit one of the bigger pays.

Quote: LostWages

10/7 is a much more difficult strategy to play. Some people pick it up fast, some people are never able to get it down. They may even know all the rules but it's easy to miss stuff as you are playing, especially with penalties and reverse penalties, holding 4 flushes over some 3 card RF's but not others, holding 3 flushes sometimes but not others. The list goes on.

Play a few hundred hands each on 9/6 and then on 10/7/5 with a VP trainer and see how you do.

Once some people start playing double bonus and other types of VP they tend to get bored playing regular JOB after that.

Double Bonus (10/7 or 9/7) is incredibly difficult to master. Pretty much every hand has multiple exceptions. A,J,9,3,7 can be played as just about any combination from A only, AJ, A 3-flush, J 3-flush, AJx 3-flush, and 7-9-J SF. Change that 7 or 9 to a T and it's completely different process. Every handle is like a f***ed up algorithm or formula you gotta use to figure out what to do.

I just use JOB strategy whenever I play DB or DDB and figure it'll all work out. :-)

I missed getting a card for a straight flush I got on the last trip. Didn't know it at the time either. Oh well.

Speaking of straight flushes on JoB, I had three today, two of them dealt! Q high in clubs and K high in spades.

Quote: Romes

. . . DB/DDB/etc are games where you play for the higher payoffs specifically, which of course will bring more of a "feast or famine" variance if you hit or don't hit one of the bigger pays . . .

Aha! Application of the "long run" concept . . . Makes sense...

Quote: AxelWolf

Play a few hundred hands each on 9/6 and then on 10/7/5 with a VP trainer and see how you do. Once some people start playing double bonus and other types of VP they tend to get bored playing regular JOB after that.

I will certainly bear down and do a few hundred hands each on JoB 9/6 and then DB 10/7 before my 3rd trip to Las Vegas! That is a great suggestion, thanks!

Quote: IBYA

Speaking of straight flushes on JoB, I had three today, two of them dealt! Q high in clubs and K high in spades.

Gosh durn, and straight flushes entitle you to a scratcher's card!

Quote: RS

I just use JOB strategy whenever I play DB or DDB and figure it'll all work out. :-)

Hey, I read the spoiler, no worries!

It looks like everyone is in agreement (Romes, AxelWolf, RS, probably IBYA) that DB strategy is more difficult than it appears to be. It took me my first 3 years playing VP to appreciate what a "penalty" card was in playing Deuces Wild. Now I have reverse penalties to consider? Aaaaaargh!

I guess the improved ER% (on the 3 specific games at MSS) after adding 9 coins to the VP analyzer table is a negligible amount - no one even sneezed at the numbers. Too small, huh?

For me, having a .55% point edge on DB 10/7 won't take the place of learning perfect DB strategy, but it will help me in the "long run" (so there!).

I used to ONLY wanna play Deuces Wild. No one even mentioned DW in passing. Does JoB and DB have better payoffs than DW?

The DB strategy I'm trying to perfect is from the Wiz:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/double-bonus/10-7/

In addition to the 34 strategy steps, the Wiz also provides a list of 81 "conflict hands". I can put these on a "strategy card" and bring to the machine, right?

I have at least 6-9 months before my next trip, so I'll take on all the suggestions, tips, recommendations, and whatever you feel like showering on me.

Before my next trip -- as recommended by AxelWolf -- I'll first play a few hundred hands of each JoB 9/6 and DB 10/7, and take it from there. I'll re-assess my "feel" or preference for one game or the other.

In all likelihood, we will again stay at MSS. The more I review the pictures,



the more I like Boar Head's Bar, which has all the pressure points for MY needs: close to restroom, fast & good service, get a Red Bull or DOUBLE shot of Bailey's & coffee, much much less smoke than the Cal or other areas of the casino, relatively more secluded and less noisy, TVs, 777 around the corner for a meal or snack, room to just sit & sip and get on my iPhone , easy for wifey to find me . . Garden Court Buffet around the other corner . . . at the extreme opposite ends of the bar, there is a small round table. When not used by the cocktail waitresses, I use it to stand up straight and stretch my legs . . . I'm all in!

I love MSS. I've stayed there nearly every trip to Vegas for the past 17+ years. Next trip is in three weeks.

Quote: LostWages

. It took me my first 3 years playing VP to appreciate what a "penalty" card was in playing Deuces Wild. Now I have reverse penalties to consider? Aaaaaargh!

Run this hand on FPDW. A K 2 ss with a 4 and 3. Run the same A K 2 ss with a 7 8 off. Do various combinations of that. You will see the correct hold will change depending on the deck composition.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: LostWages

. It took me my first 3 years playing VP to appreciate what a "penalty" card was in playing Deuces Wild. Now I have reverse penalties to consider? Aaaaaargh!

Run this hand on FPDW. A K 2 ss with a 4 and 3. Run the same A K 2 ss with a 7 8 off. Do various combinations of that. You will see the correct hold will change depending on the deck composition.

Just did. 1st hand hold just the 2. 2nd hand hold 2AK.

And to show the differences in DW for LW, in NSUD, under either scenario, you hold 2AK

Quote: AxelWolf

Run this hand on FPDW. A K 2 ss with a 4 and 3. Run the same A K 2 ss with a 7 8 off. Do various combinations of that. You will see the correct hold will change depending on the deck composition.

Thanks for the exercise, let me work on it. LW

Quote: rsactuary

I love MSS. I've stayed there nearly every trip to Vegas for the past 17+ years. Next trip is in three weeks.

Well, that makes at least 2 of us! I'm sure there's more. As a newer visitor, I wanted to contribute to the WoV forum, so I've posted these entries about the MSS. Nothing earth-shattering, just wanted to share and take the chance to thank you for your postings!

- About dining: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/las-vegas-casinos/boyd-gaming-casinos/137-restaurants/2/#post586010

- About the hotel: https://wizardofvegas.com/hotels/main-street-station/

- Newer interactive games: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/28665-crazy-money-interactive-3-d-game/#post586557

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