UTH, the 21 Outs

There is a very slim possibility I might get a chance to play some Ultimate Texas Hold-em in a few days. I seem to 'get' this game pretty good, the importance of a good kicker looms larger the more you play too.

Playing so seldom, I'll never use the more complicated later-card strategies out there and like the Wizard's strategy, see below link. The 21 outs makes a lot of sense, I have one question though.

His explanation and example:

Quote: wizard

For each rank on the board there are three more that can beat you. For example, if the dealer has the jack of hearts, diamonds, or spades he will pair up and beat you. So, 5×3=15 cards will give the dealer a hidden pair. Also, all four queens and aces will beat you. So, 15+8=23 cards will beat you. If the dealer has one of the three remaining tens, then you'll lose lose. That brings us to 26. You need to have less than 21 outs to stay in, so fold.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

So the question is, do you want to figure the outs that give straights and flushes, or does he mean to only count what he shows in the example? Note that the dealer could have a straight 4 through 8 or 5 through 9 too. That adds outs, but the Wizard reaches 26 without considering those outs and stops. It seems to me in some cases it might matter, although I probably will be assuming there are too many outs with both flush and straight possibilities and only counting on kicker as it is [hidden pair or better dictating staying]

your thoughts?

PS: seems like a dumb question, so what I am asking: Is the Wizard trying to say "don't bother you won't have to go that far?" I can spot straight possibilities pretty good when I am on my game, so it would simplify things for me if so.

We should let the Wizard answer but I think he is trying to give a simple strategy that does not consider hands where you need two cards to make a flush or straight. These are probably rare enough that they can be ignored without giving up too much EV. However if you notice an open ended three card straight flush draw like 567 hearts on the board and there are exactly 20 other outs that beat you, it's probably wise to fold.

The out rule is designed to account for the single cards a dealer can use to beat you. So if there is a four flush or four straight out there, you count the flush and/or straight outs. The flush/straight strength of a 3 flush or 3 straight board is so weak, it may be considered one out at best.

This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)

Haha. And if you do happen to see one of them and it doesn't beat you, then it looks like the out rule changes to 30 or less if I didn't foul up the math.

Quote: tringlomane

Haha. And if you do happen to see one of them and it doesn't beat you, then it looks like the out rule changes to 30 or less if I didn't foul up the math.

It helps huge in live Hold 'Em too. I love it when the person on my right is careless and peeks at his hole cards so I can see them. :-)

Thanks for the replies.

Quote: tringlomane

The out rule is designed to account for the single cards a dealer can use to beat you. So if there is a four flush or four straight out there, you count the flush and/or straight outs. The flush/straight strength of a 3 flush or 3 straight board is so weak, it may be considered one out at best.

This in particular makes sense

btw it often is clear quickly there are too many outs. Note if the community board is not paired and you only have a kicker you start with at least 15 outs even if you have an Ace. With a 10 high kicker, you have 12 possible cards [minus one for every one already community] - meaning usually too many outs.

Quote: odiousgambit

Thanks for the replies.



This in particular makes sense

btw it often is clear quickly there are too many outs. Note if the community board is not paired and you only have a kicker you start with at least 15 outs even if you have an Ace. With a 10 high kicker, you have 12 possible cards [minus one for every one already community] - meaning usually too many outs.

And of course if you had an ace you would have already raised.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)

You still have to count outs to know the correct play. The counting outs strategy came from Ex CAA.

Quote: 21forme

You still have to count outs to know the correct play. The counting outs strategy came from Ex CAA.

I know that. Where do you think I learned the strategy? 8-)

Quote: odiousgambit

So the question is, do you want to figure the outs that give straights and flushes, or does he mean to only count what he shows in the example?

No. My strategy is complicated enough as it is. Just forget about the two-card draws. I admit it is not a perfect strategy.

I have some more input; been practicing like a son-of-a-B on wizard's trainer/game. Ironically, probably would have to be lucky to find the game up and running as it's going to be mid-week and maybe slow for them.


Anyway, seems clear to me this is less daunting than it seems. I like the 21 out thing. My input: If playing much you should be able to memorize the outs of "situations", here is my list so far:

what I mean by "the board" is the community cards, by 'high card' I mean cards higher than your kicker


*no pairs and no high cards on board: the board counts 15 outs. Your kicker can only take 1 dealer high card's outs = 19 for a player King kicker minimum [likely you went 4x]


*no pairs and high cards on board: the board still counts 15 but qualifying kickers open up because you are not going to consider the high cards twice. This now becomes practical counting the available high cards to dealer [speed matters to me]. 4 outs per high card, clearly 2 cards is 'it'


BOARD PAIRS


*a pair and no board high card reduces board to 11 outs. The 10 more allowable outs make Jack or better good

*a pair and high cards on board, you still start with the 11 and counting outs you just now keep in mind the 10 more allowable outs, the kicker possibilities get better again.


BOARD TWO PAIR or TRIPS

*board is down to 7 notice there is a pattern here



BOARD 4 OAK


*board is down to 3! 18 [16] more outs to go [4 higher ranks] ... if the 4 oak is composed of a high rank, it matters. A 9 kicker may qualify for a shot. 4 oak with ace means K, Q, J, 10 beat you if you don't have them. Other possible situations don't apply, if you like high variance it may be time to go for the 8 kicker. I am convinced you can't win in the long run without the Blind bet paying off nicely once in a while, so if you are willing to risk higher variance by sacrificing HE ... [unwizardly thing to do though]

your thoughts?

Odious - the rule states 'less' than 21 outs. To me that means 20 or less. You're counting 21 outs. Maybe I'm missing something. . . but I'm a newbie and still learning.

Quote: CharmedQuark

Odious - the rule states 'less' than 21 outs. To me that means 20 or less. You're counting 21 outs. Maybe I'm missing something. . . but I'm a newbie and still learning.

well, when you come down to the remaining outs, the ones not represented on the community board, couting them, it's four outs at a time and you are either starting with 15, 11, 7, ... you only get to 19 before you have to stop, seems to me. Clear in my mind anyway LOL

here is my current evaluation. I'm sure I'm only re-inventing the wheel ... others are way ahead of me ... BUT, I like this:

*the community board has nothing, that means level one: King kicker is needed
-Ace or King in board, now Queen is good.
-etc.

*community board has a pair, second level: Queen is needed
-Ace in board, now Jack is good
-Ace and King, or Ace and Queen, etc, now 10 is good

etc, etc, etc

I just count them down after deciding if it is level one, level two, level 3 ... hope you can follow that, it becomes simple. The wizard trainer seems to support the thinking, I'm not getting warned off that the evaluation is wrong while playing

PS, yeah, re-reading the prior post, you were right, examples are a card too far, sorry. The current eval. seems to be working

Here is my rough-justice proof of the "21 outs" statement in Mike's strategy.

Clearly if the player folds, then his EV is -2.

Let N be the number of outs under consideration for the dealer to beat the player. Then the probability that the dealer’s first card is an out is p = N/45. For his second card, the dealer who whiffed on his first card most likely has 3 additional “pair outs” to pair his first card and beat the player. He may also generate new straight or flush outs (call these 1 additional “out,” so-called “runner-runner”). So, the probability of the dealer beating the player by hitting an out on his second card is approximately (N + 4)/44.

Overall, the probability that the dealer beats the player is then,

p = N/45 + [(45 – N)/45]*[(N + 4)/44].

Simplifying, we get:

p = (-N^2 + 85 N + 180)/(45*44)

Note that if the dealer doesn’t hit an out, then he won’t qualify. It follows that the EV for the player who raises 1x on the Turn/River bet is:

EV = p*(-3) + (1-p)*(1) = 1 – 4p.

We make the raise whenever EV > -2. That is, 1 – 4p > -2. Solving for p gives

p < 3/4.

That is, the player raises 1x when his chance of beating the dealer is 25% or higher.

Combining the two expressions for p, we see that EV > -2 whenever

(-N^2 + 85 N + 180)/(45*44) < 3/4.

Simplifying gives the quadratic inequality,

N^2 – 85N + 1305 > 0

Solving the quadratic equation gives roots:

(1/2)*(85 + sqrt(2005)) = 64.9

(1/2)*(85 – sqrt(2005)) = 20.1

For the quadratic equation to be positive, N must be either larger than both roots or smaller than both roots. That is, either N ≥ 65 or N ≤ 20. The first case is the “impossible solution,” leading to the conclusion that there can be at most 20 dealer outs that can beat the player.

Quote: teliot

Here is my rough-justice proof of the "21 outs" statement in Mike's strategy.

Very nice and professional.
I wish all the other strategies are based on math like this.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)

At least twice I had the opportunity of knowing dealer's card, but didn't win any of the hands, talking about luck.

When there is 4oak on the board you should raise very liberally. Let's say board is QQQQ2 and you have 7 high. Here there are 24 outs to beat you but if you win you get paid 10:1 on the blind. In effect you are wagering 1 unit to win 14. Because of the huge payout it's gotta be right to call here.

Quote: bigfoot66

When there is 4oak on the board you should raise very liberally. Let's say board is QQQQ2 and you have 7 high. Here there are 24 outs to beat you but if you win you get paid 10:1 on the blind. In effect you are wagering 1 unit to win 14. Because of the huge payout it's gotta be right to call here.

I'm thinking this too. By the end of a session, whether or not you've had some nice payouts on the blind bet is huge!

your example has a 2 for the board kicker - a player should be alert for the other kind of 4 oaks with a high kicker on the board - excellent chances to be tied - you don't want to fold - you also don't want the dealer to use his lower-than-board kicker and claim you lost

Quote: teliot

Here is my rough-justice proof of the "21 outs" statement in Mike's strategy.

I don't think Mr. Jacobson takes too much for granted. Awesome.

Quote: bigfoot66

When there is 4oak on the board you should raise very liberally. Let's say board is QQQQ2 and you have 7 high. Here there are 24 outs to beat you but if you win you get paid 10:1 on the blind. In effect you are wagering 1 unit to win 14. Because of the huge payout it's gotta be right to call here.

If the 10:1 payout is up for grabs, it seems to me you would call with almost any two cards, yeah? I guess fold the nut-low, which can only ever push.

Quote: Deucekies

If the 10:1 payout is up for grabs, it seems to me you would call with almost any two cards, yeah? I guess fold the nut-low, which can only ever push.

Using the same sort of analysis as I did above, I computed the number of outs based on the player's final hand, and got numbers like 22, 23, 24, etc., as you went up the scale of player hands. It wasn't until I read Mike's strategy carefully that I realized his "number of outs" only applied to player hands that were busted (not even a pair).

btw sometimes you call even if you play the board - here are some notes I made a while ago - but essentially if the dealer has so few outs to win you might as well go for the tie. For instance you would call a board of AAAA9 holding 34.

I did get to play some UTH - this at Rocky Gap Casino, Cumberland MD. I was afraid they wouldnt have it going mid-week, but by 10 AM they seem to want it going. Likely I'll blog about the Rocky Gap trip.

I got in on one short session, about an hour, and a longer 2 hour session. They do use a decent paytable for the Trips bet and the expected one for the blind bet, see below. The Wizard seems to indicate the Blind bet table is fairly standard. There are better Trips bet paytables but IMO the 3.5% HE on the one offered is not bad for the extra variance it gives you. I only made one or two of these bets though - and no wins. I wasn't actually sure of the HE at the time, plus you had to bet the table minimum.

The table minimum was nice, $5 [$10 then, for the required 2 bets]. I was in for sure!

They must clean up. From my admittedly limited sample of players, plus from the way the dealers gave advice and the way their expectations were set, the Wizard of Odds strategies, or any effective simple strategy either, is close to completely unknown. Everyone played the Trips bet for sure every time - when I declined, people shook their heads, "the dummy doesn't know how to play at all!" When I put down the 4x bet, and how frequently I did that, their eyes were popping out of their heads - everyone instantly made sure I knew I only had to do 3x. Players evidently were only betting 3x and only when they had an Ace or something. I'm sure 4x was reserved for pocket Aces, or maybe other face cards paired, with the typical player.

I breezed through the 21 outs thing, which surprised me. The decision for the kicker just seemed easy each time. I'm sure though, with the excitement of playing the game the first time, I may have failed to consider a lowly kicker when I should have. Next time I'm going to be harder on myself.

It was definitely fun.



RG Trips Bet Paytable

50

40

30

8

7

4

3


RG Blind Bet Paytable

500

50

10

3

3 to 2

1

see https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

I assume the Blind flush pay is 3 to 2, otherwise ... :+)

Quote: miplet

I assume the Blind flush pay is 3 to 2, otherwise ... :+)

yes, I will edit that

Quote: miplet

I assume the Blind flush pay is 3 to 2, otherwise ... :+)

Casino M8trix in San Jose, CA has the flush pay 6-5 so they don't have to keep half dollars at the table. Also, while more or less every CA cardroom charges $1/$100, they charge $1/$100/wager, so if you want to play $5 ante/blind and $5 Trips it costs $2.

El. Oh. El.

So they don't have to use half dollars haha what a joke.They could pay 7-5 or 8-5 like that's going to happen.

I finally have arrived at my full set and method that utilizes memorization of the leading card you need to avoid or minimize the need to count the Dealer Outs to determine whether kickers are 'good' in UTH. By 'good' I mean you do bet with such in the 1X river stage; of course you can still lose, otherwise an out would not be an out! It is a matter of whether the kicker allows the dealer to reach sufficient Outs or not. This is discussed upthread. 

All situations below are for the 1X bet. As the LVA strategy card says, first you determine if you can outkick the board using a hole card, or whether you should determine if the board should be bet on its own, often a matter of the outs as well. The card indicates that in the former case, which I will call a hole card kicker situation, 21+ outs indicate to fold, while in the other case usually 18+ outs indicate folding. I'll call it the Can't Outkick Situation. 

You Can Outkick

Hole Card Kicker Situation 1 . Your kicker should not go up against a 4 card flush or open-ended straight on the board, fold instead of using kicker. 

Hole Card Kicker Situation 2. Unpaired Rainbow Board representing 15 outs. K is good, succession* rule is good.  

Hole Card Kicker Situation 3. Board has One Pair representing 11 outs. Q is good, succession rule is good. 

Hole Card Kicker Situation 4. Board has Trips representing 7 outs. J is good, succession rule is good, and we see a pattern here. 

Hole Card Kicker Situation 5. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs. J is good, succession rule is good. Same as previous due to number of outs. 

Hole Card Kicker Situation 6. Board has Two Pair representing only 4 outs!! This is when the unpaired board card is lower than either pair, thus useless when paired. 10 is good, succession is good. 

Hole Card Kicker Situation 7. Board has 4 OAK, note 21+ outs is not viable strategy  7-card is good, succession is good. Memorize this, don't counts outs. 

Can't Outkick

The following is for when you decide your kicker can't outkick the board. The situation is more complicated because a single card can't trump all other outs in some cases. 

Situation 1. If the board doesn't have a pair or better, "don't play the board" per LVA strategy card, it's the 21+ out situation only. 

All the other situations below use the 18+ rule. 

Can't Outkick Situation 2. One pair, 11 outs, and there are 3 cards that represent kicker situations. These 3 need to be Ace through Jack, any combination, otherwise there are 2 cards that the dealer could have that will add 8 more outs = 19.

Can't Outkick Situation 3. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs. Q is good, succession is good. 

Can't Outkick Situation 4. Board has Trips representing 7 outs, with two cards that represent kicker situations. These two need to be Ace through Jack, any combo again, to keep the dealer from having 3 more possible outs. 

Can't Outkick Situation 5. Board has Two Pair representing 4 outs! The one other card is lower again than the pairs. This time the 2 pair need to contain a pair of Jacks or higher, otherwise dealer can have Ace through Jack and 16 more outs. Look for this situation and this time I finally agree to just count the outs! If 18+, fold. 

Can't Outkick Situation 6. Board has 4 OAK. 10-card is good, succession is good. This fits with 18+ and I can't explain why this differs from the other 4 OAK situation. 

If nobody finds any errors I'll make a table. 


* Succession rule definition: memorizing a certain card in a certain situation will be modified by the presence of higher ranking cards on the board. When one out-ranker is present, the succession rule maintains that the next lower kicker is 'good'. For example in hole-card kicker situation 2, I indicate a King is 'good' . If an Ace is present on the board that will mean a Queen is good as well. If Ace and King are present, the succession rule says now a Jack is good, etc.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

Whether to call or fold, even if the correct strategy is to call, if the board is not paired, in most cases, expect with an ace, I will not call. I don't think trying to salvage your bet by playing a hand that doesn't get paid off on the ante is worth the risk.

Quote: Vegasrider

Whether to call or fold, even if the correct strategy is to call, if the board is not paired, in most cases, expect with an ace, I will not call. I don't think trying to salvage your bet by playing a hand that doesn't get paid off on the ante is worth the risk.

I guess you are right that it means you won't get paid on the ante to play a kicker and the board has no pair or better. But either you differ with Grosjean, Stephen How, and the Wizard, to name a few, about this being worth it overall, or your tolerance for risk should have you avoid this game altogether, seems to me.

If you learned how to play from other players and the dealers, I can understand how you came to this decision.

Y, I use to play the 21 outs method but realized I'm now risking 3 bets to maybe winning won. Knowing that the board is paired, I am more willing to call because I'm guaranteed getting paid double. I can live with throwing away a winner on occasion. No different than playing live poker which I have played semi-professionally for 20 years, most of it in Vegas at the Mirage and then the Bellagio during the glory days. The casino that I play at regularly has repeatedly backed me off from playing UTH, primarily from one Shift Manager. I haven't seen him in a long time. I might start playing again.

I must not have been on this forum in 2015 - either that, or I missed this thread. In any case, here is my strategy for calculating the "21 Outs" (that I used once, before pretty much staying away from UTH as I kept confusing the board with the dealer's cards):
Count the number of ranks not on the board that (a) do not make a straight and (b) are higher than both your highest hole card and the lowest unpaired rank on the board. If it is lower than the number next to the hand on the board, bet; otherwise, fold.
No Pair – 2
Pair – 3
Two Pair, fifth card higher than low pair (e.g. K K 9 6 6, or K 9 9 6 6) – 4
Two Pair, fifth card lower than low pair (e.g. K K 9 9 6) – 5
Three Of A Kind – 4
4/Open Straight – 1 if there is a pair; otherwise fold
4/Inside Straight (including AKQJ and 432A) – 2 if there is a pair; 1 if there is not
4/Flush - always fold
Straight, Flush, Full House, Straight Flush – always bet
Four Of A Kind – fold if the higher of the fifth board card and your higher hole card is 7 or lower, or an 8 with four 7s or higher

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Count the number of ranks not on the board that (a) do not make a straight and (b) are higher than both your highest hole card and the lowest unpaired rank on the board. If it is lower than the number next to the hand on the board, bet; otherwise, fold.
No Pair – 2
Pair – 3
Two Pair, fifth card higher than low pair (e.g. K K 9 6 6, or K 9 9 6 6) – 4
Two Pair, fifth card lower than low pair (e.g. K K 9 9 6) – 5
Three Of A Kind – 4
4/Open Straight – 1 if there is a pair; otherwise fold
4/Inside Straight (including AKQJ and 432A) – 2 if there is a pair; 1 if there is not
4/Flush - always fold
Straight, Flush, Full House, Straight Flush – always bet
Four Of A Kind – fold if the higher of the fifth board card and your higher hole card is 7 or lower, or an 8 with four 7s or higher

"Count the number of ranks not on the board that (a) do not make a straight and (b) are higher than both your highest hole card and the lowest unpaired rank on the board."

So if you have Q-7o and the board is A-J-9-3-2, there is one rank- King- not on the board that is higher than your highest hole card -and higher than the lowest unpaired rank (2) on the board. But, I don't understand the need for the "higher than the lowest unpaired rank" criterion. If it were lower than the lowest unpaired rank then you would be playing the board -why does that mean that you must fold?

EX: If you have 3-2o, and the board is "A-K-J-J-J" I would Bet 1X because when the dealer does not have an A, K, J or pocket pair, then I expect to push. Isn't that better than folding? But hole cards of 3-2o do not meet your criteria above. Did I get that right?

Quote: gordonm888

EX: If you have 3-2o, and the board is "A-K-J-J-J" I would Bet 1X because when the dealer does not have an A, K, J or pocket pair, then I expect to push. Isn't that better than folding? But hole cards of 3-2o do not meet your criteria above. Did I get that right?

"Paired" includes three (and four) of a kind. In this case, the lowest unpaired card on the board is King, so there is only one rank that is higher. Since the number for a 3 Of A Kind on the board is 4, you bet.

Quote: gordonm888

If you have 3-2o, and the board is "A-K-J-J-J" . . .

Quote: ThatDonGuy

"Paired" includes three (and four) of a kind. In this case, the lowest unpaired card on the board is King, so there is only one rank that is higher. Since the number for a 3 Of A Kind on the board is 4, you bet.

Your rule is: "Count the number of ranks not on the board that (a) do not make a straight and (b) are higher than both your highest hole card and the lowest unpaired rank on the board.

In your response, you counted the number of ranks that are on the board that are higher than the lowest unpaired card on the board. Very confusing.

If the board is A-Q-Q-Q-9 and I have 3-2, I bet? Because there are 3 qualifying ranks that are not on the board. (Also 19 outs.)

If the board is A-9-9-9-8 and I have 7-6, I fold? Because there are 4 qualifying ranks that are not on the board? (Also, 23 outs.)

I think I have it, but the rules -especially for 4-card straights and 4oak - seem pretty complex. Of course, we are capable of memorizing anything.

Quote: gordonm888

Your rule is: "Count the number of ranks not on the board that (a) do not make a straight and (b) are higher than both your highest hole card and the lowest unpaired rank on the board.

In your response, you counted the number of ranks that are on the board that are higher than the lowest unpaired card on the board. Very confusing.

Okay, you got me on that one...

Quote: gordonm888

If the board is A-Q-Q-Q-9 and I have 3-2, I bet? Because there are 3 qualifying ranks that are not on the board. (Also 19 outs.)

If the board is A-9-9-9-8 and I have 7-6, I fold? Because there are 4 qualifying ranks that are not on the board? (Also, 23 outs.)

Both correct. The three of a kind has one out; the other two cards each have three outs (to give the dealer a full house). That leaves 13. Three cards higher than the lowest unpaired card and your highest hole card are 12 outs, for 19; four are 16 outs, for 23.

Quote: gordonm888

I think I have it, but the rules -especially for 4-card straights and 4oak - seem pretty complex. Of course, we are capable of memorizing anything.

The four of a kind rule is a little complex, but that's how it works out for 20 outs.
However, I think it should say, "an 8 with four 7s or lower."

With, say, four deuces on the board, you lose if the dealer has a hole card higher than your higher hole card and the fifth card on the board.
If the board has four 10s, and the higher of the fifth board card and your higher hole card is 7, there are 24 outs (8, 9, or J-A); if it is 8, there are only 20.
However, if it has four 2s, and the higher of the fifth board card and your higher hole card is 8, there are 24 outs (any 9 through Ace); if it is 9, there are only 20.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: gordonm888

Your rule is: "Count the number of ranks not on the board that (a) do not make a straight and (b) are higher than both your highest hole card and the lowest unpaired rank on the board.

In your response, you counted the number of ranks that are on the board that are higher than the lowest unpaired card on the board. Very confusing.

Okay, you got me on that one...

Both correct. The three of a kind has one out; the other two cards each have three outs (to give the dealer a full house). That leaves 13. Three cards higher than the lowest unpaired card and your highest hole card are 12 outs, for 19; four are 16 outs, for 23.


The four of a kind rule is a little complex, but that's how it works out for 20 outs.
However, I think it should say, "an 8 with four 7s or lower."

With, say, four deuces on the board, you lose if the dealer has a hole card higher than your higher hole card and the fifth card on the board.
If the board has four 10s, and the higher of the fifth board card and your higher hole card is 7, there are 24 outs (8, 9, or J-A); if it is 8, there are only 20.
However, if it has four 2s, and the higher of the fifth board card and your higher hole card is 8, there are 24 outs (any 9 through Ace); if it is 9, there are only 20.

Forgive me, but it seems to me that the board 4OaK would, 'Often,' be an exception to the 21 outs. ('Often,' in quotes because it doesn't often happen at all)

For instance, with a hand like:

5d 6h

And board:

Ad Ah Ac As 4s

You guys are forgetting the value of the Blind Bet in conjunction with the fact that you already have a 4oaK. For that reason, you would call here as long as you could beat the kicker on the board, regardless of the dealer's number of outs. Playing around with different hands on the calculator would seem to indicate you want at least a six that beats the board kicker.

It looks like the cut off goes up to seven-kicker (beating the board's kicker) on 4OaK's ranking less than seven.

Quote: Mission146

Forgive me, but it seems to me that the board 4OaK would, 'Often,' be an exception to the 21 outs. ('Often,' in quotes because it doesn't often happen at all)

For instance, with a hand like:

5d 6h

And board:

Ad Ah Ac As 4s

You guys are forgetting the value of the Blind Bet in conjunction with the fact that you already have a 4oaK. For that reason, you would call here as long as you could beat the kicker on the board, regardless of the dealer's number of outs. Playing around with different hands on the calculator would seem to indicate you want at least a six that beats the board kicker.

It looks like the cut off goes up to seven-kicker (beating the board's kicker) on 4OaK's ranking less than seven.

It's a matter of having the 10-card+ kicker on the board or a 7-card+ if you can outkick the board, according to the LVA strategy card.
That the 6-card would get approval from the calculator is when the succession rule kicks in. Since it is not possible to have more than one higher ranking card, it can't go lower than 6.

In case it strikes you that the strategy of memorizing a card for each situation, then work out a succession, is a lot of memorization, yeah it is. I'm not there yet, but until recently I had only worked out when a K or Q is good in the 'hole card outkicks' situation.

I decided to practice I'd use the Wizard trainer game and go until the $5000 is gone and work on memorizing more. I started with $15 for ante/blind each, and realized it took too long. I'm finding $50 each also makes $5000 last too long to call it just a session, though surely if your luck was bad enough $5000 might run out. $100 on each I have found will pretty much do it, perhaps $75 would, haven't tried that. A current game where I'm going with $50 on each is taking hours and hours and currently just went past the $5000 bankroll mark again. Any error I make I do correct, though.

There are sometimes the 21 out and 18 out rules are done right and the computer says "that is not the best play" , in case anyone wondered about that. I'm going to stop correction on those and let them go, and see if I can drain out the bankroll. The idea, though, is to get down some more memorization.

Quote: odiousgambit

In case it strikes you that the strategy of memorizing a card for each situation, then work out a succession, is a lot of memorization, yeah it is. I'm not there yet, but until recently I had only worked out when a K or Q is good in the 'hole card outkicks' situation.

Everyone says "memorize." The one time I played UTH, I had my strategy card on the table, and nobody complained about it.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Everyone says "memorize." The one time I played UTH, I had my strategy card on the table, and nobody complained about it.

OK, I had to defend this against MIssion's pushback, this is a different angle, I appreciate the feedback. 


"Memorize" sounds like 'back-to-school' and having to do rote stuff that you hate. Wrong choice of words. 


Fact is, if you play enough poker, or BJ, whatever, your actions become more automatic and it's a good thing. I can't imagine someone playing a lot of UTH and knowing about the 21 outs, then not noticing that when the board is a picket fence rainbow, that a King is always qualified as a kicker for the 21 out rule. As Mission mentioned, soon you realize a Queen is almost always qualified too, and soon that gets to be automatic when the board has one pair. Until now, I hadn't noticed the exact circumstances where a Jack or 10 was good, but often would instinctively 'just know'. I think it would be better to nail this down and I'm trying to get there. 


I say it's a good thing because folding is so often not the right thing at the 1x decision! Think of all this for a poker newbie. At each phase's decision, he has to be alert, the opening and the turn to start. Now he is at the last decision for 1x. Checking for an unseen straight simultaneously with a last-cards pairing or flush, then making sure you fully notice the board's potentials for pushing and also for 4-card flushes and open-ended straights that you didn't make but the dealer still could, and with all that finally double-checked deciding if you can outkick the board and if so start counting for the outs... it's a lot. To use Mission as an example, he's played enough that all these decisions are made in an instant except he might take time counting the outs. Almost any poker player beyond newbie makes at least most of these automatically too. It's a huge benefit. 


So that's my case for more automatic, instinctive play the better. The less you have to actually count the outs, I say, is for the better too, strategy card handy or not.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Everyone says "memorize." The one time I played UTH, I had my strategy card on the table, and nobody complained about it.

I memorize the wizard’s strategy card for UTH and Heads up Holdem because it is simple, but I need a more advanced strategy card, the one made by James Grosjean. Is there a download version of it somewhere?

I don't know who might be checking for errors to my compilation, though I asked Mission to if he has time. In the meantime, I have found the below editing to be appropriate ... unless you find an error!! The added part is in bold.

Can't Outkick Situation 2. One pair, 11 outs, and there are 3 cards that represent kicker situations. These 3 need to be Ace through Jack, any combination, otherwise there are 2 cards that the dealer could have that will add 8 more outs = 19. If the pair consists of AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, succession to A through 10, any combination, is good. 

Can't Outkick Situation 4. Board has Trips representing 7 outs, with two cards that represent kicker situations. These two need to be Ace through J, any combo again, to keep the dealer from having 3 more possible outs. If the Trips consist of AAA, KKK, QQQ, or JJJ, succession to A through 10, any combination, is good. 

Quote: aceside

I memorize the wizard’s strategy card for UTH and Heads up Holdem because it is simple, but I need a more advanced strategy card, the one made by James Grosjean. Is there a download version of it somewhere?

Hey, wait a minute, I'm going to make a table and that's all you need ! jk!

actually the table will cover only the 1x situation and I wouldn't be considered worthy to hold the jock straps of Grosjean, true enough.

I only know about the Las Vegas Advisor dot com strategy card, which is mailed to you.

Here is the table, subject to correction. If I don't get errors or advice about better tables, I'll make a blog post too to make it easier to find



       
       
       
             
                     

You Can Outkick Board	Action Indicated
1 . Board = 4 card flush or open-ended straight	Fold the kicker
2. Unpaired Rainbow Board	K is good, succession good.
3. Board has One Pair	Q is good, succession rule good.
4. Board has Trips	J is good, succession good
5. Board = Two Pair of 7 outs type.	J is good, succession good
6. Board has Two Pair and 4 outs!!	10 is good, succession is good.
7. Board has 4 OAK,	7-card is good, succession is good

>>>


             
             
       
               

Board Kicker Outkicks	Action Indicated
1. If the board doesn't have a pair or better	"don't play the board"
2. Board Has One Pair	Combination of 3: A thru Jack, any comb, succession to A-10, any comb
3. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs	Q is good, succession is good
4. Board has Trips and 7 outs	Combination of 2: A thru J, any comb, succession to A-10, any comb
5. Board has Two Pair representing 4 outs!	Need one pair JJ+, count the outs! If 18+, fold.
6. Board has 4 OAK	10-card is good, succession is good.

I’ll have to look over it more thoroughly, but Rule 3 doesn’t always work with an inside straight draw.

Player: Q2

Board: 34677

Fold

Rule 4 doesn’t work with a three flush and all undercards on the board if there is also a two card holding that can result in a straight if your kicker doesn’t beat anything on the board and the board cards are all low. (That’s really getting in the weeds though and is only sometimes true…J2 and sometimes J3 and J4…rarely J5 even) Basically, both straights and flushes must be possible for the dealer and your second kicker doesn’t beat anything on the board.

Player: J2

Board 3d4d7d7h7s

Fold

I might be misunderstanding Rule 6, but I don’t think that works if the two pair are low and the other card on the board is higher than either pair.

Player:10,8

Board: 66449

Fold

Please correct me if I am misunderstanding any of these.

Quote: Mission146

I’ll have to look over it more thoroughly, but Rule 3 doesn’t always work with an inside straight draw.

Player: Q2

Board: 34677

Fold

Rule 4 doesn’t work with a three flush and all undercards on the board if there is also a two card holding that can result in a straight if your kicker doesn’t beat anything on the board and the board cards are all low. (That’s really getting in the weeds though and is only sometimes true…J2 and sometimes J3 and J4…rarely J5 even) Basically, both straights and flushes must be possible for the dealer and your second kicker doesn’t beat anything on the board.

Player: J2

Board 3d4d7d7h7s

Fold

Thanks for coming across those

Notice though that for counting the dealer outs it doesn't change. So this comes down to "do I list the exceptions or not" ... maybe an asterisk ?

Quote: Mission146

I might be misunderstanding Rule 6, but I don’t think that works if the two pair are low and the other card on the board is higher than either pair.

Player:10,8

Board: 66449

Fold

66449 would not be rule 6 [first table] because there are 7 outs as board, not 4. It would be rule 5, in which the J is required to allow 3 more outs only = 19 [while 20 are allowed]

Thanks, it is easy to get lost in the wilderness here