odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8869
May 27th, 2015 at 6:44:13 AM permalink
There is a very slim possibility I might get a chance to play some Ultimate Texas Hold-em in a few days. I seem to 'get' this game pretty good, the importance of a good kicker looms larger the more you play too.

Playing so seldom, I'll never use the more complicated later-card strategies out there and like the Wizard's strategy, see below link. The 21 outs makes a lot of sense, I have one question though.

His explanation and example:

Quote: wizard

For each rank on the board there are three more that can beat you. For example, if the dealer has the jack of hearts, diamonds, or spades he will pair up and beat you. So, 5×3=15 cards will give the dealer a hidden pair. Also, all four queens and aces will beat you. So, 15+8=23 cards will beat you. If the dealer has one of the three remaining tens, then you'll lose lose. That brings us to 26. You need to have less than 21 outs to stay in, so fold.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

So the question is, do you want to figure the outs that give straights and flushes, or does he mean to only count what he shows in the example? Note that the dealer could have a straight 4 through 8 or 5 through 9 too. That adds outs, but the Wizard reaches 26 without considering those outs and stops. It seems to me in some cases it might matter, although I probably will be assuming there are too many outs with both flush and straight possibilities and only counting on kicker as it is [hidden pair or better dictating staying]

PS: seems like a dumb question, so what I am asking: Is the Wizard trying to say "don't bother you won't have to go that far?" I can spot straight possibilities pretty good when I am on my game, so it would simplify things for me if so.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see.
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
• Posts: 1582
May 27th, 2015 at 8:17:51 AM permalink
We should let the Wizard answer but I think he is trying to give a simple strategy that does not consider hands where you need two cards to make a flush or straight. These are probably rare enough that they can be ignored without giving up too much EV. However if you notice an open ended three card straight flush draw like 567 hearts on the board and there are exactly 20 other outs that beat you, it's probably wise to fold.
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tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6272
May 27th, 2015 at 8:25:26 AM permalink
The out rule is designed to account for the single cards a dealer can use to beat you. So if there is a four flush or four straight out there, you count the flush and/or straight outs. The flush/straight strength of a 3 flush or 3 straight board is so weak, it may be considered one out at best.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
May 27th, 2015 at 8:26:38 AM permalink
This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)
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tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6272
May 27th, 2015 at 8:33:52 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)

Haha. And if you do happen to see one of them and it doesn't beat you, then it looks like the out rule changes to 30 or less if I didn't foul up the math.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
May 27th, 2015 at 9:15:14 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Haha. And if you do happen to see one of them and it doesn't beat you, then it looks like the out rule changes to 30 or less if I didn't foul up the math.

It helps huge in live Hold 'Em too. I love it when the person on my right is careless and peeks at his hole cards so I can see them. :-)
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odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8869
May 27th, 2015 at 1:42:39 PM permalink
Thanks for the replies.

Quote: tringlomane

The out rule is designed to account for the single cards a dealer can use to beat you. So if there is a four flush or four straight out there, you count the flush and/or straight outs. The flush/straight strength of a 3 flush or 3 straight board is so weak, it may be considered one out at best.

This in particular makes sense

btw it often is clear quickly there are too many outs. Note if the community board is not paired and you only have a kicker you start with at least 15 outs even if you have an Ace. With a 10 high kicker, you have 12 possible cards [minus one for every one already community] - meaning usually too many outs.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see.
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
• Posts: 1582
May 27th, 2015 at 2:23:09 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Thanks for the replies.

This in particular makes sense

btw it often is clear quickly there are too many outs. Note if the community board is not paired and you only have a kicker you start with at least 15 outs even if you have an Ace. With a 10 high kicker, you have 12 possible cards [minus one for every one already community] - meaning usually too many outs.

And of course if you had an ace you would have already raised.
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21forme
Joined: Feb 27, 2011
• Posts: 158
May 27th, 2015 at 2:57:54 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is why is so much easier when you know one of the dealers cards :-)

You still have to count outs to know the correct play. The counting outs strategy came from Ex CAA.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010