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Hunterhill
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February 4th, 2015 at 4:29:01 AM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

Hi I've read a lot on these forum's but this is my first time posting. I was wondering if anybody has been successful playing ultimate Texas hold'em? I started playing blackjack about a year ago (thinking that was the only game at the casino to make money) and have come to realize that it requires a large bankroll (I'm guessing $10,000 would be a start if I were to spread $10-$50) and even in the best case scenarios the edges are very small. I live in Maryland and the Maryland, Pennsylvania and Delaware casino's all have very good blackjack rules. As I wandered around playing blackjack, I would see the poker games. I didn't know anything about them but when I would watch, I would notice that the way they were dealt, the dealer would often inadvertently flash a hole card. I did a little research and found that there is about a decent edge in UTH if you know what one of the dealers hole cards is. I started playing about 2 months ago. My first few sessions were decent and lost no more than $50 and made about $50-$150 on the others. This is simply betting $5 on the ante and blind, no side bets. It's funny, in blackjack people kind of hate it when you play the side bets but in these poker games the whole table (including the dealer) gets mad at you when you don't play them. I hit a 4 of a kind once and it wasn't pretty.

But in the past month, my sessions have been -$400, -$350, -$200, -$200, and -$130. I can honestly say that in all of that play, I didn't even have one upswing of more than $75. I've heard people say that they like UTH because it's less volatile than blackjack. They're right. Instead of going up and down like in blackjack, you just go straight down. There you go, less volatile. It seems to be the common theme at the table. It doesn't seem that anybody is ever coming out ahead. Sure they don't play correctly but it seems to save them money cause that ace doesn't do you any good when the dealer always seems to have a 5 to connect a straight. Last night I won 4 out of 10 4X raises, the time before, probably only 4 out of 12. Everytime you lose, you lose $30, everytime you win, you only win $20-$25. I feel the blind bet is the real killer. It's just at such a disadvantage.

So I did some testing. I took a single deck and shuffled and dealt them just like they do at the casino. Even with perfect hole card info, I can't get the game to turn positive. After 600 test hands, I wound up down about $200. The high was $200 and the low was -$500. I realize this isn't a great sample, but it gives you a pretty decent example. Any comments would be appreciated. Thanks


Uth is a very volatile game. The variance is much higher than blackjack. You are seeing one card, do you know the strategy for that, are seeing the exact card or are you guessing alot.Is it a six or was it a seven, was tha an eight or was it a ten? Can you distinguish the picture cards? It's also a very slow game, you are lucky to get 20 hands per hour so how many hands have you really played?
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Deucekies
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February 4th, 2015 at 8:54:38 AM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Uth is a very volatile game. The variance is much higher than blackjack. You are seeing one card, do you know the strategy for that, are seeing the exact card or are you guessing alot.Is it a six or was it a seven, was tha an eight or was it a ten? Can you distinguish the picture cards? It's also a very slow game, you are lucky to get 20 hands per hour so how many hands have you really played?



Beg pardon. 20 hands per hour is Pai Gow pace. I'd say you get closer to 40-50 hands per hour.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Hunterhill
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February 4th, 2015 at 9:06:05 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Beg pardon. 20 hands per hour is Pai Gow pace. I'd say you get closer to 40-50 hands per hour.


I strongly disagree. Of course it depends on how full the table is and how good the dealer is, or it could be that I'm always playing bad dealers:)I think you are fortunate if you get 30 hands per hour.Other factors could be the table minimum. High minimum means people run out of money quicker. Also changing cards, putting a fill on the game, do they have the progressive bet.If you can play an hour without any interruptions maybe 40-50 is possible but that just doesn't happen in the real world
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Deucekies
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February 4th, 2015 at 10:29:16 AM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I strongly disagree. Of course it depends on how full the table is and how good the dealer is, or it could be that I'm always playing bad dealers:)I think you are fortunate if you get 30 hands per hour.Other factors could be the table minimum. High minimum means people run out of money quicker. Also changing cards, putting a fill on the game, do they have the progressive bet.If you can play an hour without any interruptions maybe 40-50 is possible but that just doesn't happen in the real world


It happens every day where I work, even at a full table. A hand of UTH rarely takes more than 90 seconds, most of them closer to 60. That equates to about 40 hands per hour minimum.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Hunterhill
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February 4th, 2015 at 10:51:08 AM permalink
I agree with you about the 60-90 seconds but it's just all the other stuff factored in. Alot of places that I play have the progressive with the circles that you put your dollar on.It seems they are always screwing up and or freezing up so then it has to be reset.Also depends if it is hand dealt or machine dealt. What state do you work in Deucekies?
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
dwheatley
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February 4th, 2015 at 11:40:55 AM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog


So I did some testing. I took a single deck and shuffled and dealt them just like they do at the casino. Even with perfect hole card info, I can't get the game to turn positive. After 600 test hands, I wound up down about $200. The high was $200 and the low was -$500. I realize this isn't a great sample, but it gives you a pretty decent example. Any comments would be appreciated. Thanks



You need to try harder. If you deal UTH face up and know BOTH dealer hole cards you should have a 35% edge. You are doing something wrong if you can't make money with a 35% edge.

Using the st.dev of regular UTH of 4.94 units, I get a 600 hand sample st dev of sqrt(600)*4.94 = 121 units and expectation of 600*.35 = 210.

Down $200 on $5 units is -40, which is 2.06 st dev below expectation. Unlikely but not impossible. Deal more hands, make the money.

----
If you cannot reliably see a hole card, you probably don't have an edge. And you generally shouldn't play the trips bet, that is not where the money is.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Hunterhill
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February 4th, 2015 at 11:51:50 AM permalink
I think he meant seeing one holecard.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Deucekies
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February 4th, 2015 at 12:09:57 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I agree with you about the 60-90 seconds but it's just all the other stuff factored in. Alot of places that I play have the progressive with the circles that you put your dollar on.It seems they are always screwing up and or freezing up so then it has to be reset.Also depends if it is hand dealt or machine dealt. What state do you work in Deucekies?


WA state. Shuffle machine. No progressive on UTH, but we have progressive on Pai Gow. We don't have any issues with it that require us to hold up the game. Sure we have the occasional floating dollar, but that's a 2-second fix.

Maybe we're just a well-oiled machine. :)
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Sandybestdog
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:47:25 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I have played quite a lot of UTH. In my opinion, it is more volatile than Blackjack. Definitely more fun. And very lucrative.

I don't play without the Trips bet. Which may cause you to disregard anything else I say, but that's where I make my money, along with a very aggressive betting strategy that freaks most people out, but IMO is the only way to win at this game. If you play this strategy, it gets the Element of Risk down around .5. The Las Vegas Advisor sells the strategy card for $5. I highly recommend it.

I'm too tall to get away with hole-carding, so I don't even try. But adding hole carding to the aggressive strategy would give the player a big advantage, if the info is used correctly. I think the web site apheat has a pretty good discussion on just how much it adds, and I would suggest you check there. Be sure to read the blog entry in the link for UTH in that alphabetical listing.

UTH strategy is also discussed in great detail at WizardofOdds.com , a sister site to this one. Look especially hard at the advice on how to play kickers.

Also be sure you're looking for opportunities to play the board for a push, because it can be hard to see, but boards like 2 pair + a 10, or 3OAK plus 2 face cards, are times to bet with nothing in your hand. This will become apparent if you start counting your kickers per WoO advice, but most players miss these and fold.

Based on your description of your play, I would guess you're folding too early on a few hands, combined with not being aggressive enough on your 4x and 2x bets. But that's totally my SWAG, because that's what I see a lot; this game is different from nearly all the rest in that you have to bet exactly as the strategy card says, with the refinement of playing the kickers correctly, and let the math do the work for you. No psyche bets, no trend bets, no backing off your aces when the dealer's filling gutshot straights.

Good luck.



Thanks for the advice but yea that's the problem. I consistently lose on 4x raises. Less than 50% for sure. I have the simple strategy card nearly memorized. All aces, all king and 5 and higher, all queen 8 or something and higher and jack 10 and all pocket pairs except 2's. Some of the kings and queens you raise lower if suited. After the flop, I 2x with a hidden pair. Sometimes I will 2x a 4 to a flush or straight if I have a 10 or higher. Then after the river, I'll try to count the outs. Trust me I'm not afraid to raise. I'm consistenly losing with AK suited to a dealers 7. An ace only helps as a kicker if you don't pair up and if you're playing kickers, you wish you hadn't 4x. But everytime I get one I just say to myself that you have to trust the math. I don't play the trips not because I don't want to play it but because if I'm buying in for $300, an extra $5 per bet is going to eat away at that pretty quickly. Especially because if you are losing to the dealer, you most likely aren't getting any trips or higher.
Sandybestdog
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:58:39 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

You need to try harder. If you deal UTH face up and know BOTH dealer hole cards you should have a 35% edge. You are doing something wrong if you can't make money with a 35% edge.

Using the st.dev of regular UTH of 4.94 units, I get a 600 hand sample st dev of sqrt(600)*4.94 = 121 units and expectation of 600*.35 = 210.

Down $200 on $5 units is -40, which is 2.06 st dev below expectation. Unlikely but not impossible. Deal more hands, make the money.

----
If you cannot reliably see a hole card, you probably don't have an edge. And you generally shouldn't play the trips bet, that is not where the money is.


No I'm talking about one dealer hole card and one community card. I mean my results are what they are. My play may not be optimized but with that kind of edge, you would think even bad play and bad streaks would bring you back to at least break even. The largest drawdown was about $600 between about 300 hands.

I don't play the trips bet.
Sandybestdog
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February 4th, 2015 at 3:36:40 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Uth is a very volatile game. The variance is much higher than blackjack. You are seeing one card, do you know the strategy for that, are seeing the exact card or are you guessing alot.Is it a six or was it a seven, was tha an eight or was it a ten? Can you distinguish the picture cards? It's also a very slow game, you are lucky to get 20 hands per hour so how many hands have you really played?



I try to only use it to my advantage. A lot of times you'll just see a lot of paint and know it's probably a 8,9, or 10 clubs or spades etc. Sometimes you can't distinguish the faces but if you've just got a 10 for a kicker, you know to fold it. If I pair up to an 8 and I know the dealer has a face and there is another face on the board, I'll still raise. The other night I had a king and a 2. I saw plain as day the flop had a 2. Seeing as how that is a borderline raise anyways, I 4x it. Of course then the dealer pairs up both his hole cards. Another time I had pocket 2's and saw another 2 before the flop and 4x that. It's a little funny though when I see what I think was the 7 of clubs and then I get dealt that card!

I've also learned not to show anybody your cards. There was once where there was 4 clubs on the board and I was about 95% sure I saw the dealer had the queen of clubs. I was trying to fold when the guy next to me pointed out that I had the 10 of clubs. Sure enough the dealer flipped over the queen. But I'm kind of surprised at how little the info does me any good. A lot of times it doesn't matter and other times the dealer always has something anyways. The other day I saw there was an ace on the flop and the guy next to me also had an ace. I was going to try to nudge him to 4x when I saw that he was doing it anyways. Of course then the dealer pulls out a full house.

It is very slow. People always need change to play their side bets. Also the pit boss is always getting called over to watch a payout on a full house or something. Then there was the time when a lady had a 9 to connect a sraight and the dealer also had one but she was convinced she won cause her king then plays as a kicker. Even after politely being told by everybody else at the table that it's a push, she still wants to argue about it. Then, two hands later she hits a straight flush while playing the trips. I gues karma isn't a bitch.

But no I don't guess. Always revert back to basic strategy. If I could just find a way to holecard blackjack, then I'd be set.
beachbumbabs
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February 4th, 2015 at 9:06:54 PM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

I try to only use it to my advantage. A lot of times you'll just see a lot of paint and know it's probably a 8,9, or 10 clubs or spades etc. Sometimes you can't distinguish the faces but if you've just got a 10 for a kicker, you know to fold it. If I pair up to an 8 and I know the dealer has a face and there is another face on the board, I'll still raise. The other night I had a king and a 2. I saw plain as day the flop had a 2. Seeing as how that is a borderline raise anyways, I 4x it. Of course then the dealer pairs up both his hole cards. Another time I had pocket 2's and saw another 2 before the flop and 4x that. It's a little funny though when I see what I think was the 7 of clubs and then I get dealt that card!

I've also learned not to show anybody your cards. There was once where there was 4 clubs on the board and I was about 95% sure I saw the dealer had the queen of clubs. I was trying to fold when the guy next to me pointed out that I had the 10 of clubs. Sure enough the dealer flipped over the queen. But I'm kind of surprised at how little the info does me any good. A lot of times it doesn't matter and other times the dealer always has something anyways. The other day I saw there was an ace on the flop and the guy next to me also had an ace. I was going to try to nudge him to 4x when I saw that he was doing it anyways. Of course then the dealer pulls out a full house.

It is very slow. People always need change to play their side bets. Also the pit boss is always getting called over to watch a payout on a full house or something. Then there was the time when a lady had a 9 to connect a sraight and the dealer also had one but she was convinced she won cause her king then plays as a kicker. Even after politely being told by everybody else at the table that it's a push, she still wants to argue about it. Then, two hands later she hits a straight flush while playing the trips. I gues karma isn't a bitch.

But no I don't guess. Always revert back to basic strategy. If I could just find a way to holecard blackjack, then I'd be set.



Well, I take back my guesses about what you're playing, because it sounds like you're very close onto correct strategy. So then it just might come down to variance running against you right now, which sucks.

Interesting anecdote about the 10 of clubs. You're pretty much hosed for folding without being exposed as a hole-carder, though several places I play, they check your folded cards whether asked to or not, whether you're playing the Trips bet or not. Might just have to take one for the team on that unless where you play they don't check your values. God knows you don't want to tell the dealer they're flashing, and I don't know what else you could say once the person next to you saw the flush.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Sandybestdog
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February 6th, 2015 at 9:25:37 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Well, I take back my guesses about what you're playing, because it sounds like you're very close onto correct strategy. So then it just might come down to variance running against you right now, which sucks.

Interesting anecdote about the 10 of clubs. You're pretty much hosed for folding without being exposed as a hole-carder, though several places I play, they check your folded cards whether asked to or not, whether you're playing the Trips bet or not. Might just have to take one for the team on that unless where you play they don't check your values. God knows you don't want to tell the dealer they're flashing, and I don't know what else you could say once the person next to you saw the flush.


I don't think they normally check your cards unless you are playing the trips bet. The other day I saw one guy folding and said to the dealer to just take everything. When the dealer looked at the cards, the guy got mad and repeated to just take the chips. The dealer says they check for the trips cause people have been known to make mistakes. That's because you still get paid on the trips if you fold. You can always play dumb. With 7 cards to look at, it's easy to miss something. Like when they flip everything over and the dealer says doesn't anybody have a 6, who's got the 6? Then I say I've got a 6 and realize I have a straight. I was playing 3 card poker the other day and the dealer was looking at my folded cards. It would look a little suspicion if I had folded an A24 cause I knew she had an ace as well.
offTopic
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February 17th, 2015 at 8:46:05 PM permalink
Is there a way of estimating the value of being able to put "the fourth bet" in preflop when:
a) your neighbor is scared to bet 4x and only wants to bet 3x
b) the casino will allow such a practice

If that's not clear, for example, the person next to you gets AQs, which they know is a good hand, but only want to bet 3x preflop. You ask if it's OK to put the 4th bet on top (assuming they understand you get your bet plus any winnings on that bet back...I shouldn't have to say that, but who the hell knows what people will assume in a casino).
miplet
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February 18th, 2015 at 4:01:15 AM permalink
Quote: offTopic

Is there a way of estimating the value of being able to put "the fourth bet" in preflop when:
a) your neighbor is scared to bet 4x and only wants to bet 3x
b) the casino will allow such a practice

If that's not clear, for example, the person next to you gets AQs, which they know is a good hand, but only want to bet 3x preflop. You ask if it's OK to put the 4th bet on top (assuming they understand you get your bet plus any winnings on that bet back...I shouldn't have to say that, but who the hell knows what people will assume in a casino).


Here is a list of just the Play bet EV if they are bet preflop. If your neighbor has a $10 Ante bet and only wants to bet $30 preflop with his 9/A suited and lets you bet the extra $10, you would get average win of $2.55624278

HANDEV
Pair of A's0.704074266
Pair of K's0.647913596
Pair of Q's0.598503281
Pair of J's0.549389458
Pair of T's0.500235599
Pair of 9's0.441145039
Pair of 8's0.383260709
K/A suited0.340892646
Pair of 7's0.324720456
Q/A suited0.324177248
J/A suited0.307853581
K/A unsuited0.306401436
T/A suited0.292047736
Q/A unsuited0.288636787
J/A unsuited0.271265158
Q/K suited0.268008066
Pair of 6's0.265694964
9/A suited0.255624278
T/A unsuited0.254433093
J/K suited0.251346803
8/A suited0.238876213
T/K suited0.235771163
Q/K unsuited0.229116001
7/A suited0.219679171
9/A unsuited0.215456128
J/K unsuited0.211373703
Pair of 5's0.20649841
J/Q suited0.205184103
9/K suited0.19976951
5/A suited0.198458512
6/A suited0.198116561
8/A unsuited0.197452102
T/K unsuited0.194778303
T/Q suited0.189351186
4/A suited0.18067272
7/A unsuited0.176823908
8/K suited0.166246999
3/A suited0.164406412
J/Q unsuited0.162693794
9/K unsuited0.156238493
5/A unsuited0.153930687
6/A unsuited0.153649046
9/Q suited0.153286434
7/K suited0.15075475
T/J suited0.150557142
2/A suited0.147577957
T/Q unsuited0.145815652
Pair of 4's0.140456424
4/A unsuited0.134593553
6/K suited0.13281471
8/K unsuited0.120403451
8/Q suited0.12035466
3/A unsuited0.116892047
5/K suited0.115858353
9/J suited0.113249411
9/Q unsuited0.107208698
T/J unsuited0.104954062
7/K unsuited0.103747003
2/A unsuited0.098571174
4/K suited0.097692731
7/Q suited0.086045264
6/K unsuited0.084465579
3/K suited0.081099529
9/T suited0.080550573
8/J suited0.080312884
Pair of 3's0.073861528
6/Q suited0.072251329
8/Q unsuited0.071995841
5/K unsuited0.066279457
9/J unsuited0.065023938
2/K suited0.064234567
5/Q suited0.055388218
8/T suited0.046687414
4/K unsuited0.046549442
7/J suited0.046495624
4/Q suited0.037106041
7/Q unsuited0.035313319
9/T unsuited0.030633448
8/J unsuited0.02980326
3/K unsuited0.028513793
6/Q unsuited0.020481046
3/Q suited0.02038493
8/9 suited0.016015108
7/T suited0.012780751
6/J suited0.012118143
2/K unsuited0.010174476
Pair of 2's0.006680382
2/Q suited0.003380705
5/Q unsuited0.002401656
5/J suited-0.00026301
8/T unsuited-0.005574527
7/J unsuited-0.006361328
4/Q unsuited-0.017446318
7/9 suited-0.017645378
4/J suited-0.018590932
6/T suited-0.021186486
3/J suited-0.03536752
3/Q unsuited-0.035611279
8/9 unsuited-0.038059345
7/8 suited-0.041273195
7/T unsuited-0.04183729
6/J unsuited-0.043114539
6/9 suited-0.051434185
2/J suited-0.052436952
2/Q unsuited-0.054091262
5/T suited-0.055674821
5/J unsuited-0.056382235
4/T suited-0.069390128
7/9 unsuited-0.074043872
6/8 suited-0.075134615
4/J unsuited-0.076272309
6/T unsuited-0.078159934
5/9 suited-0.085562509
3/T suited-0.08614976
6/7 suited-0.092564667
3/J unsuited-0.094489102
7/8 unsuited-0.098983755
2/T suited-0.103210345
5/8 suited-0.109100146
6/9 unsuited-0.110173095
2/J unsuited-0.113030648
5/T unsuited-0.114981009
4/9 suited-0.122760584
5/7 suited-0.126489267
4/T unsuited-0.12991784
3/9 suited-0.134714844
6/8 unsuited-0.135181963
5/6 suited-0.137332276
4/8 suited-0.145967454
5/9 unsuited-0.146617144
3/T unsuited-0.148108983
2/9 suited-0.151696563
6/7 unsuited-0.153545062
4/7 suited-0.163013762
2/T unsuited-0.166632988
4/5 suited-0.170931593
5/8 unsuited-0.17144948
4/6 suited-0.173333619
3/8 suited-0.182529918
4/9 unsuited-0.18657893
5/7 unsuited-0.189760623
2/8 suited-0.194567311
3/7 suited-0.199281282
3/9 unsuited-0.199609713
5/6 unsuited-0.201113954
3/5 suited-0.206140752
3/6 suited-0.209328801
4/8 unsuited-0.211064171
2/9 unsuited-0.218041274
3/4 suited-0.227161032
4/7 unsuited-0.229003443
2/7 suited-0.236882131
4/5 unsuited-0.236894258
4/6 unsuited-0.239790235
2/5 suited-0.24301344
2/6 suited-0.246620718
3/8 unsuited-0.250323748
2/4 suited-0.263419706
2/8 unsuited-0.263446518
3/7 unsuited-0.26795486
3/5 unsuited-0.274704578
3/6 unsuited-0.278447381
2/3 suited-0.280311388
3/4 unsuited-0.297082132
2/7 unsuited-0.308327054
2/5 unsuited-0.31430709
2/6 unsuited-0.318497233
2/4 unsuited-0.336004997
2/3 unsuited-0.353935437

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offTopic
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February 18th, 2015 at 6:59:56 AM permalink
Awesome...thanks!
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March 20th, 2015 at 1:02:29 PM permalink
Posed this question on another forum as well: While playing in LV last weekend, I saw a guy I'm pretty sure was actively cheating. He would bet $10 on the Ante but only $5 on the Blind. He would do this every hand until the dealer corrected him after which he would bet correctly for a hand or two and then go back to 10-5. The times I did see him win with a straight or better, the dealer paid according to the $5 wager, but of course when he lost, he would only lose $5 on the Blind instead of $10. Any idea what advantage is gained by doing this?
Deucekies
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March 20th, 2015 at 1:15:54 PM permalink
Assuming the Play bet is made based on the Ante wager, a 2.185% house advantage becomes a 13.55% player advantage.


Bet Avg Wager Avg Pay Avg Win
Ante 1 -0.16576 -0.16576
Blind 0.5 -0.31469 -0.15734
Play 2.15225 0.21308 0.45859
Total 3.65225 0.13549


A white-chipper could have a player advantage (albeit a small one) betting $10 on the Ante and $9 on the Blind, and he would likely get caught less often.


Bet Avg Wager Avg Pay Avg Win
Ante 1 -0.16576 -0.16576
Blind 0.9 -0.31469 -0.28322
Play 2.15225 0.21308 0.45859
Total 4.05225 0.00962
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
offTopic
offTopic
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March 20th, 2015 at 1:25:04 PM permalink
Wow! Perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned this on a public forum...hate to blow up the guy's spot :-( Mods can remove this if they feel like it
Deucekies
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March 20th, 2015 at 1:29:02 PM permalink
Quote: offTopic

Wow! Perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned this on a public forum...hate to blow up the guy's spot :-( Mods can remove this if they feel like it



I don't think it's that big a secret. Any casino that doesn't realize that Ante = Blind is important doesn't deserve to be in business.

That said, if anyone would like my post taken down as well, I'll do so.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
djatc
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March 20th, 2015 at 1:54:41 PM permalink
Is it too strong of a word to say he was cheating? I'm guessing since he placed the bet before the hand it would only be a trespass if he kept at it and pissed off the pit.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Deucekies
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March 20th, 2015 at 2:51:24 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

Is it too strong of a word to say he was cheating? I'm guessing since he placed the bet before the hand it would only be a trespass if he kept at it and pissed off the pit.



As is usually the answer, it depends on jurisdiction. In Washington state, here's the law defining cheating:

Quote: RCW 9.46.196


Cheating — Defined.

"Cheating," as used in this chapter, means to:
(1) Employ or attempt to employ any device, scheme, or artifice to defraud any other participant or any operator;
(2) Engage in any act, practice, or course of operation as would operate as a fraud or deceit upon any other participant or any operator;
(3) Engage in any act, practice, or course of operation while participating in a gambling activity with the intent of cheating any other participant or the operator to gain an advantage in the game over the other participant or operator; or
(4) Cause, aid, abet, or conspire with another person to cause any other person to violate subsections (1) through (3) of this section.



What we're talking about runs afoul of point 3, assuming they can prove you are doing it on purpose. By the third or fourth time you get caught, they've got you.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
tringlomane
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March 20th, 2015 at 3:49:31 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

As is usually the answer, it depends on jurisdiction. In Washington state, here's the law defining cheating:



What we're talking about runs afoul of point 3, assuming they can prove you are doing it on purpose. By the third or fourth time you get caught, they've got you.



I would also think they would be covered under Nevada's fraud laws. Or new jerseys "swindling" laws.
dwheatley
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March 20th, 2015 at 4:15:28 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

You need to try harder. If you deal UTH face up and know BOTH dealer hole cards you should have a 35% edge. You are doing something wrong if you can't make money with a 35% edge.

Using the st.dev of regular UTH of 4.94 units, I get a 600 hand sample st dev of sqrt(600)*4.94 = 121 units and expectation of 600*.35 = 210.

Down $200 on $5 units is -40, which is 2.06 st dev below expectation. Unlikely but not impossible. Deal more hands, make the money.

----
If you cannot reliably see a hole card, you probably don't have an edge. And you generally shouldn't play the trips bet, that is not where the money is.



I found this thread again and I see the OP can see one flop and one dealer card. This is supposed to give you a 20.74% edge with perfect play. You should be cleaning up.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Sandybestdog
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March 20th, 2015 at 8:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

I found this thread again and I see the OP can see one flop and one dealer card. This is supposed to give you a 20.74% edge with perfect play. You should be cleaning up.


So I've played UTH a bit over the past few months. Not enough that I have any proven research but I have gotten my feet wet. What I have noticed is that anybody can say you have X edge but it doesn't necessarily work out like that. I took a deck of cards and have done hundreds of simulations dealt exactly the way they do in the casino. With knowledge of one hole card and one card on the flop, after 800 simulations(hand dealt, not a computer) my result is -$50. So let's move onto something better. Seeing the flop in Mississippi Stud is supposed to give you a 50% edge. After 500 simulations, it ended down $75. Three card poker was just over flat.

These results are consistent with my real experiences. While it's difficult to get hole card info 100% or even 50% of the time, you think you would still be able to get enough info to at least break even. Let's say you see part of the dealer's hole card. Often if you just see a lot of paint but can't see the exact number, you know it's a 7,8,9, or 10. You have 10/5. Nothing pairs on the board that matches that. Normally you would probably fold but a 10 is worth raising because it already beats one of the dealers cards. But it's just amazing what the dealer manages to pull out of nowhere. Sometimes it almost seems like it's rigged. What really gets me is the 4X raises. I don't have any stats but it certainly doesn't seem like you win over 50%. Somebody the other day had AK. I heard the lady next to her say, "that's the Anna Kournikova, looks good never wins." I kind of chuckled cause it certainly seems true. According to propokertools, just having an ace gives the player a 60% chance of winning, but it sure doesn't seem like that. Then there's the betting pattern. You raise 4x and lose ($30). The next hand you again raise 4x and win, but you only win $20-25. So you're still down. Then you check and win with a 5 connecting a straight, but only win $10. It just seems all messed up and a slow bleed. The blind bet is such a disadvantage.

I have lost more at UTH than anything else. Meanwhile, I have played blackjack more than anything else. I just flat bet $10, that's it. After a year, I'm at exactly break even just playing basic strategy.
JohnnyComet
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April 6th, 2015 at 9:17:08 AM permalink
UTH is a genius game in that it seems much more fun than blackjack but really has much less skill. I have dumped a bunch of money into it and really only walked away a winner a few times.

I feel like it's much more similar to Video Poker than anything else but with the option to give away more money at the beginning. :)
Ibeatyouraces
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:07:07 PM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

... I would notice that the way they were dealt, the dealer would often inadvertently flash a hole card. I did a little research and found that there is about a decent edge in UTH if you know what one of the dealers hole cards is. I started playing about 2 months ago. My first few sessions were decent and lost no more than $50 and made about $50-$150 on the others. This is simply betting $5 on the ante and blind, no side bets. It's funny, in blackjack people kind of hate it when you play the side bets but in these poker games the whole table (including the dealer) gets mad at you when you don't play them. I hit a 4 of a kind once and it wasn't pretty.

But in the past month, my sessions have been -$400, -$350, -$200, -$200, and -$130. I can honestly say that in all of that play, I didn't even have one upswing of more than $75. I've heard people say that they like UTH because it's less volatile than blackjack. They're right. Instead of going up and down like in blackjack, you just go straight down. There you go, less volatile. It seems to be the common theme at the table. It doesn't seem that anybody is ever coming out ahead. Sure they don't play correctly but it seems to save them money cause that ace doesn't do you any good when the dealer always seems to have a 5 to connect a straight. Last night I won 4 out of 10 4X raises, the time before, probably only 4 out of 12. Everytime you lose, you lose $30, everytime you win, you only win $20-$25. I feel the blind bet is the real killer. It's just at such a disadvantage.

So I did some testing. I took a single deck and shuffled and dealt them just like they do at the casino. Even with perfect hole card info, I can't get the game to turn positive. After 600 test hands, I wound up down about $200. The high was $200 and the low was -$500. I realize this isn't a great sample, but it gives you a pretty decent example. Any comments would be appreciated. Thanks


Most likely you do not know the HC strategy for this game. It is nowhere near the same as the strategy for playing the game under normal conditions. No, I will not post the HC strategy.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Sandybestdog
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May 27th, 2015 at 10:35:08 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Most likely you do not know the HC strategy for this game. It is nowhere near the same as the strategy for playing the game under normal conditions. No, I will not post the HC strategy.


Perhaps, but how complicated can it possibly be? If you see the flop card and you pair up, then raise 4X. If you see the dealer pairs up, don't raise your ace or king 4X. If both your cards are above 8 and the dealers card is below both of yours, you should probably 4X. The real help is with kickers. The other day there was at least 5 occasions where I was able to fold an otherwise playing hand. Sometimes knowing they have a low card is justification enough to raise after the river with just a 9 or 10 high. I think the disadvantage from the blind bet and the ante pushing when the dealer doesn't pair is just too much of a disadvantage. You raise 4x and lose, it takes at least 2 wins to make the money back. When you lose, you lose it all. When you win, oh this is a push, that's a push, ok you get paid on just that. Most straights and flushes happen after the river, so you only get to raise 1X.

I found a dealer flashing the river in Mississippi Stud the other day. Talk about the ultimate advantage play. I played over 8 hours in two sessions and still lost $500. This was just betting $5 on ante, no side bets. These carnival games just seem to difficult to beat. If other people can make money playing these games, good for them. It just hasn't been working for me. Meanwhile I was actually able to see a few hole cards at blackjack the other day. I'm not going to elaborate on the specifics but just betting $15, I was able to make $150 in just 40 minutes until the opportunity ended. I'm normally a low stakes $10 blackjack guy. I would have bet more than $15 but I only had $300 on me. It was kind of cool. I saw some paint one time. Yes I would like insurance.
Ibeatyouraces
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May 27th, 2015 at 10:52:30 AM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

Perhaps, but how complicated can it possibly be? If you see the flop card and you pair up, then raise 4X. If you see the dealer pairs up, don't raise your ace or king 4X. If both your cards are above 8 and the dealers card is below both of yours, you should probably 4X. The real help is with kickers. The other day there was at least 5 occasions where I was able to fold an otherwise playing hand. Sometimes knowing they have a low card is justification enough to raise after the river with just a 9 or 10 high. I think the disadvantage from the blind bet and the ante pushing when the dealer doesn't pair is just too much of a disadvantage. You raise 4x and lose, it takes at least 2 wins to make the money back. When you lose, you lose it all. When you win, oh this is a push, that's a push, ok you get paid on just that. Most straights and flushes happen after the river, so you only get to raise 1X.

I found a dealer flashing the river in Mississippi Stud the other day. Talk about the ultimate advantage play. I played over 8 hours in two sessions and still lost $500. This was just betting $5 on ante, no side bets. These carnival games just seem to difficult to beat. If other people can make money playing these games, good for them. It just hasn't been working for me. Meanwhile I was actually able to see a few hole cards at blackjack the other day. I'm not going to elaborate on the specifics but just betting $15, I was able to make $150 in just 40 minutes until the opportunity ended. I'm normally a low stakes $10 blackjack guy. I would have bet more than $15 but I only had $300 on me. It was kind of cool. I saw some paint one time. Yes I would like insurance.


One of the most comical hands I was in on was me raising 4x with two mid range cards at least 10 high against a dealer 2. The flop came 2, 2, 2! Needless to say I was drawing dead. It's not as easy as playing pre-flop. You have to know exactly what to do pre-turn/river and on the river itself. This is where it gets messy.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Sandybestdog
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May 27th, 2015 at 12:34:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

One of the most comical hands I was in on was me raising 4x with two mid range cards at least 10 high against a dealer 2. The flop came 2, 2, 2! Needless to say I was drawing dead. It's not as easy as playing pre-flop. You have to know exactly what to do pre-turn/river and on the river itself. This is where it gets messy.


Well, I wouldn't necessarily raise with 8/9 but the odds are with you. Propokertools says 8/9 v 7 is a 56% edge. So are you saying I shouldn't always raise pre-flop so much? This is what I have been thinking but in all situations I try to lean back on basic strategy. I hate having hole card info cost me money. So even if none of the hole info helps, I still raise something like A/4 or Q/9 4x. Maybe I should hold back and only bet no brainers like pockets or if I pair to a board hole card. I'm the one at the table who everybody looks at weird cause I raised K/7 4X. I definitely think my 4x win rate is below 50%.

I think the Texas Hold'em Bonus game would be easier for holecarding because there is more raising opportunites but that is not offered where I am at.
JoeClayton
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March 30th, 2019 at 8:38:05 PM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog



I've also learned not to show anybody your cards. There was once where there was 4 clubs on the board and I was about 95% sure I saw the dealer had the queen of clubs. I was trying to fold when the guy next to me pointed out that I had the 10 of clubs. Sure enough the dealer flipped over the queen. But I'm kind of surprised at how little the info does me any good. A lot of times it doesn't matter and other times the dealer always has something anyways. The other day I saw there was an ace on the flop and the guy next to me also had an ace. I was going to try to nudge him to 4x when I saw that he was doing it anyways. Of course then the dealer pulls out a full house.



You raise a issue that I didn't see discussed here--seeing cards of another player. I can see the advantages of knowing one or both of the dealer's card (duh!), but how much does it help to see what others have?

For instance, if a player has the J7c, and sees the hands to his right and left, both of which have no clubs, does that effect what should be bet in the first round? Or conversely, having a Q10c, and seeing three other clubs in those four cards, would a player refrain from betting that first round?

Knowledge is power, but I couldn't say what to do with that knowledge.

JClay
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