Wizard strategy for Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em

I may as well say that tomorrow I'm going to be making new gambling videos for pai gow (tiles), Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, and Three Card Poker.

In preparing for Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em I wanted to present a simple strategy for the game. Here is what I came up with.

4X Raise

Follow the optimal strategy below.



2X Raise

Raise with any hidden pair or better

or

Raise with 4-flush including suited 10 or better or pocked twos

1X Raise

Raise with a hidden pair or better.

or

Raise if less than 21 outs beat you.

Here is an example of the "21 outs" rule.



The this example the following number of each rank will be beat you in the dealer's hole cards:

Aces: 4
Kings: 3
Queens: 4
Jacks: 3
8's: 3
6's: 3
5's: 3
Total = 23

Because 21 or more outs beat you -- fold.

I must admit that the "outs" idea comes from the James Grosjean strategy card. So does the second rule under 2x raise. However, I feel there is no way to address the game without using these common ways to express poker strategy.

I asked JB to analyze this new simplified strategy. Here are his results:

TRIALS ................. 12,001,119,847
RETURN ................. -318,576,326
RETURN % ............... -0.026546
TOTAL BET .............. 50,163,071,530
RETURN OF AVG BET ...... -0.006351

As a reminder, the house edge under optimal strategy is 2.185%. So, this is only 0.47% higher. Yeah, 0.47% is a lot, but keep in mind that is relative to just the initial bet, and the game also includes the blind and raise bets. The element of risk is 0.526% under optimal strategy and 0.635% under this Wizard strategy, which is only 0.11% higher. That is about one full bet every 900 hands.

So, you guys are the first to see the "Wizard simple strategy" for Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em. What do you think?

Looks like a winner. As always.

Thanks, Wiz. I've been playing the initial bet that way, the second bet as "raise all hidden pairs better than deuces", and the third bet as seat of the pants guessing. This chart is just as easy, and give a better chance. Thanks again.

I like it. It's a little simpler than the Grosjean strategy and close enough for the casual gambler like me. That said I am not sorry I spent the low price of $6 on his set of two cards (laminated readable size and plastic wallet size.)

I really enjoy this game and have noticed that most people play it very poorly and even criticize my play (Grosjean strategy.) Your strategy is simple enough that more people might bother to learn it. Then again the average player just can't come to grips with raising 4x on any ace, so maybe not.

deleted

We should probably be happy people check pre-flop with good hands. If everyone played correctly the casinos would probably start reducing the pay table on the blind bet.

deleted

Quote: jml24

We should probably be happy people check pre-flop with good hands. If everyone played correctly the casinos would probably start reducing the pay table on the blind bet.

I agree with that principle regarding every game. That is why I say that I'm not trying to save everybody, only those who will listen. It takes some bad gamblers to subsidize the good ones.

In other news, JB Emailed me some improvements over the strategy above. I'm still going over that with him. So, stay tuned for an even better one.

Let me clarify the second 2x raise rule.

Before it said, "Raise with 4-flush including suited 10 or better or pocked twos."

I'm going to reword that to "Raise with 4-flush including a hidden 10 or better to the flush in the hole." This makes it clear the player must have a good kicker, in case the dealer gets a flush too.

The pocket twos was evidently not very helpful to add and doesn't happen very often, so I dropped that.

JB suggested I add a rule under 1x saying to always raise with a straight or higher on the board. However, I feel that case is covered under the 21 strikes rule. If there is a pat straight or better on the board there will be fewer than 21 outs that improve it.

Here are the results of this modified strategy. Previous numbers are in parenthesis.

TRIALS ................. 4,301,049,313
RETURN ................. -104,650,743
RETURN % ............... -0.024331 (-0.026546)
TOTAL BET .............. 17,914,312,086
RETURN OF AVG BET ...... -0.005842 (-0.006351)

What do you think?

Isn't pocket twos already included by the first 2x rule anyway?