These Shoes Are Made For Talkin'......
The next move will be to dismiss other specific modes of play (even though everything is equal), again that's already happened. I expect both to increase, again for attention or perhaps trying to goad others into threads. Unless a Leopard can change its spots, I know how things will pan out. You simply can't reason with a clown and it would be great if I could predict the next hand more than the op.
Quote: egalitePersonally I just put it down to a certain somebody's attention seeking urges and let them get on with it, it can become irksome after a while, when you realise somebody is most probably doing it deliberately.
I totally get this, it happens to me, too, sometimes. I guess I'm just trying to get people to check themselves. For the record, I also think Gr8's methods are more faith than fact, and I follow the beliefs typical of this site - in short, prove it. But despite that I think he's claiming to have what I would refer to as superpowers, the ability to predict an outcome without any known reason, he seems like an eccentric person that hasn't really harmed anyone. I suppose he's grown on me, if for no other reason than he hasn't lashed out at anyone yet.
He doesn't appear to be able to prove his advantage. I get what he's saying as to why his technique cannot be simulated. It is completely obvious that his ways (he does what he wants the way he wants) and "our ways" (show me on paper) will never meet at a crossroads. So why constantly challenge and goad and argue about it? We think he's wrong, he thinks he's right, neither will ever change, so let's move on. I just thought moving on would be a better course of action than where this is headed =)
For every 1 person lurking who believes in you (all 3) there are probably hundreds that don't. Make a poll and ask for yourself.
If you have some sick attention seeking problem we get it, if not PUT UP OR SHUT UP comes to mind. Everybody needs to respond to all of his posts
PUT UP OR SHUT UP period. all we are doing is giving him a cheap thrill. Imagine if no one responded to him.
I read this and I though of you:
attention seeking
The individual needs attention in order to feel like a valuable person. This is because their self worth depends on the evaluations of other people and this is a type of emotional immaturity.
People can pick up ineffective coping mechanisms in childhood. They can continue to use these strategies in adulthood because they believe they work.
Quote: FaceI get what he's saying as to why his technique cannot be simulated.
Sure it can. He just doesn't want to commit to the effort of codifying his strategy, which is fine, but it's incorrect to suggest that it's not codifiable at all. There are only a finite number of possibilities for the combinations of past hands and past bet outcomes for a given shoe, and a betting system is nothing more than a mapping between that data and a next play decision. His betting system may be more complicated than the Martingale, but it's still a betting system, and like any other betting system, his has no effect whatsoever on the theoretical edge of the game.
What it seems to do, based on what I've skimmed so far, is increase the likelihood of large, infrequent losses and small, frequent wins based on the assumption that a given shoe as a whole will exhibit near-average characteristics for things like runs. In essence, he's turned baccarat from a series of unrelated bets on Player or Banker into a larger bet on whether a shoe's worth of hands will exhibit a particular distribution -- and specifically, the average distribution for a shoe's worth of hands. That is as clean an example of the Gambler's Fallacy as I can imagine.
That said, it's not a terrible way to play as long as you're not deluding yourself into thinking you have the edge and then overbetting. I know better than most that dice rolls are independent, but I still group my play into shooters and sessions. I don't know anyone who does otherwise.
Quote: Ibeatyouraces
"You are NOT PLAYING WITH AN ADVANTAGE!"
His advantage is different than most. He brings his own
pillow to sit on. He repeats the lords prayer over
and over in his head while he plays. He always parks
facing east. Its a kinda sorta eccentric advantage play.
Quote: AxelWolfGr8 can you explain why If you have this wonderful new Bac system with a huge positive edge 24/7, why are you wasting your admitted limited time here on a bunch of naysayers ? You should just be out playing and enjoying the spoils...
...PUT UP OR SHUT UP period.
My favorite gr8player post is when he compared himself to the 1980 U.S. Hockey Team. He said that he can overcome the odds (at baccarat) just like they did against the Soviets. LOL!
Quote: MathExtremistSure it can. He just doesn't want to commit to the effort of codifying his strategy, which is fine, but it's incorrect to suggest that it's not codifiable at all.
OK, yeah, I get that. And I can't say that I blame him. After all, any finite thing could be codified, but would one really want to? You could codify my golf game if you wanted, but I'd sure as hell not want to plot my every decision, nor could I find someone to do the computer nonsense to make it work.
I guess what I'm wondering, and it's more of a human nature curiousity than specifically within this forum, is why there's such a passionate response. I'm sure we all do things by feel or by hunch all the time, I know I do. And most of us probably reckon we're ahead of the game because of it. I know I do. But no one challenges me to codify my golf game, or my hockey career, or my turn strategy in Final Fantasy Tactics, or my course of action at work. They all, too, have an optimal play, and I imagine you could quantify how ahead or behind I am based off my feels and hunches, yet no one cares. It's just life. I'm reminded of The Joker meme - "Say you've figured out life and no one bats an eye. Say you've figured out Baccarat and everyone loses their minds!"
He thinks he's got it. We don't. Need there be any more said? Or does this require 4 more threads of 20 more pages of increasing hostility? That's where I see it going, and I don't understand it.
Quote: FaceI guess what I'm wondering, and it's more of a human nature curiousity than specifically within this forum, is why there's such a passionate response.
He thinks he's got it. We don't. Need there be any more said? Or does this require 4 more threads of 20 more pages of increasing hostility? That's where I see it going, and I don't understand it.
You're a man wise beyond his years; I say "bravo!", Face.
A true voice of reason. I say "bravo!", Face.
No vitriolics, no misinformation, no lies, and no disrespect. Imagine that. I say "bravo!", Face.
No "knocking someone down" for the sole selfish purpose of "lifting themselves up". Imagine that. I say "bravo!", Face.
I sincerely hope that you are proud of the way you comport yourself, Face, for you are indeed a true gentleman.
To which I say "bravo!".
Quote: MathExtremistSure it can. He just doesn't want to commit to the effort of codifying his strategy, which is fine, but it's incorrect to suggest that it's not codifiable at all.
It must be, as he himself says every play must be consistent. Consistency requires control. Control requires repeatability. Not wanting to, and not being able to are very different things.
Quote: FaceI guess what I'm wondering, and it's more of a human nature curiousity than specifically within this forum, is why there's such a passionate response.
Because gambling is among the few pastimes that arouses that level of passion. It is the most visceral of competitions, allowing anyone to participate directly in winning and losing as opposed to merely observing one's chosen proxy such as a favorite football team or golfer. Very few people ever get to compete on the professional field of play, but anyone can walk into a casino and get a bet down.
Every other major form of competition requires actual talent. You can't be a pro football player or pro golfer without the physical and mental skills to hold your own on the field or course. For example, I personally would never make the roster of a pro football team or qualify for a PGA major. My talents lie elsewhere. But gambling, with a few exceptions, is entirely about luck. Anyone can get lucky. And when you combine a little luck with the natural human inclination to attribute causality wherever we perceive patterns, you suddenly have a vast number of gamblers who are certain that the reason they won was __________. Fill in the blank with whatever reasoning you want; it doesn't matter, it's wrong. This is the only pastime in which years of experience has no correlation with success, and that's a hard pill to swallow for people who have spent years "studying" games like baccarat or roulette. It takes a great deal of discipline to accept that you really did just get lucky, there was no reason for it, and you can't guarantee it will happen again.
So when you have someone making farfetched claims about being able to predict wins or losses, or otherwise beat the house with a betting system, many people who know better tend to come out of the woodwork to argue. I used to be one of them, but now I know even better -- there's no real harm done as long as that person isn't attempting to fleece the unsuspecting public by selling sham "guaranteed" betting systems. Those people really do need a beat-down. But I've said this before: the casino doesn't care if a player thinks they're playing a guaranteed winning system, painstakingly researched over years of trial-and-error. The cards or dice fall the same way regardless of what's going on inside the head of the gambler.
Quote: MathExtremistBecause gambling is among the few pastimes that arouses that level of passion. It is the most visceral of competitions, allowing anyone to participate directly in winning and losing as opposed to merely observing one's chosen proxy such as a favorite football team or golfer. Very few people ever get to compete on the professional field of play, but anyone can walk into a casino and get a bet down.
Every other major form of competition requires actual talent. You can't be a pro football player or pro golfer without the physical and mental skills to hold your own on the field or course. For example, I personally would never make the roster of a pro football team or qualify for a PGA major. My talents lie elsewhere. But gambling, with a few exceptions, is entirely about luck. Anyone can get lucky. And when you combine a little luck with the natural human inclination to attribute causality wherever we perceive patterns, you suddenly have a vast number of gamblers who are certain that the reason they won was __________. Fill in the blank with whatever reasoning you want; it doesn't matter, it's wrong. This is the only pastime in which years of experience has no correlation with success, and that's a hard pill to swallow for people who have spent years "studying" games like baccarat or roulette. It takes a great deal of discipline to accept that you really did just get lucky, there was no reason for it, and you can't guarantee it will happen again.
So when you have someone making farfetched claims about being able to predict wins or losses, or otherwise beat the house with a betting system, many people who know better tend to come out of the woodwork to argue. I used to be one of them, but now I know even better -- there's no real harm done as long as that person isn't attempting to fleece the unsuspecting public by selling sham "guaranteed" betting systems. Those people really do need a beat-down. But I've said this before: the casino doesn't care if a player thinks they're playing a guaranteed winning system, painstakingly researched over years of trial-and-error. The cards or dice fall the same way regardless of what's going on inside the head of the gambler.
Really well said, ME.
Quote: MathExtremistthe casino doesn't care if a player thinks they're playing a guaranteed winning system, painstakingly researched over years of trial-and-error. .
Yeah, well, don't be so sure. There's a guy that goes to 4 Winds
that I've seen there half a dozen times. He plays the B/R on roulette.
When he sits down, the pit goes into overdrive. They run to the
phone to call upstairs to get tape rolling on that table. Two, count
them, two, suits with clipboards write down every play this guy
makes.
He always buys in for $5K and makes $100 initial bets. He has a huge
binder notebook he writes things in. He has a weird progression that has
him betting $1000 very soon. I only saw him lose once. His bets make
no sense, I have no idea what he's doing. He has a real eccentric way
of stacking his chips. When he's ahead $1200 or so, he leaves.
The pit is terrified of this guy, its like watching a theatre show. They
never take they're eyes off him, like he's going to hide black chips up
his sleeves or something.
Occasionally people find new ways to cheat. They watch because that's their job.Quote: EvenBobYeah, well, don't be so sure. There's a guy that goes to 4 Winds
that I've seen there half a dozen times. He plays the B/R on roulette.
When he sits down, the pit goes into overdrive. They run to the
phone to call upstairs to get tape rolling on that table. Two, count
them, two, suits with clipboards write down every play this guy
makes.
He always buys in for $5K and makes $100 initial bets. He has a huge
binder notebook he writes things in. He has a weird progression that has
him betting $1000 very soon. I only saw him lose once. His bets make
no sense, I have no idea what he's doing. He has a real eccentric way
of staking his chips. When he's ahead $1200 or so, he leaves.
The pit is terrified of this guy, its like watching a theatre show. They
never take they're eyes off him, like he's going to hide black chips up
his sleeves or something.
Quote: Face
But no one challenges me to codify my golf game, or my hockey career, or my turn strategy in Final Fantasy Tactics, or my course of action at work. They all, too, have an optimal play, and I imagine you could quantify how ahead or behind I am based off my feels and hunches, yet no one cares.
He thinks he's got it. We don't. Need there be any more said? Or does this require 4 more threads of 20 more pages of increasing hostility? That's where I see it going, and I don't understand it.
Face I agree with what you are saying in theory but his examples are much different than yours. Do you go on a golf centric forum and claim that you can decrease someones handicap by 5 strokes with no support or evidence? Now I am not familiar with golf but i believe that this would be a bold claim and elicit quite a response from those members.
If he thinks that he has it figured out by playing on hunches; I agree that is fine. Where I take exception to this is that he attempts to teach us his ways by offering no hard evidence and talking in circles. Maybe I am just jaded as the type of work that I do requires documentary evidence if you would make a claim such as this. If he would come on here to discuss his strategies while playing without making such bold claims as he is able to overcome the house edge, I believe that the reception would have been much different. This is why I offered him a challenge that he said he was unable to accept.
Also I remind Bronco fans here it's Mr. Bowlen's team, not our team. Like vbuild me a new stadium, the hell with Mile high, or Pat
Bowlen is so outa here. Not every owner is a sweetheart like the late Robert Irsay !
Quote: EvenBob
He always buys in for $5K and makes $100 initial bets. He has a huge
binder notebook he writes things in. He has a weird progression that has
him betting $1000 very soon. I only saw him lose once. His bets make
no sense, I have no idea what he's doing. He has a real eccentric way
of staking his chips. When he's ahead $1200 or so, he leaves.
If we assume that he is prepared to lose the $5,000, then my guess is some sort of negative progression. Try to steal a peek at his notebook, if you can, I wouldn't be shocked if it was just a straight Labouchere. Depending on the way a player draws his Labouchere Line, the bets (on their Face) may not seem to have any kind of discernible pattern.
EDIT: Also, if you've only seen him six times, and he leaves ahead ~$1,200 or loses $5,000, and you witnessed him lose once, then he'd be roughly $1,000 ahead in the times that you saw him. That has a 47.37% chance of happening just by me walking in there and putting $1,000 on an Even Money bet.
This is what you are going to get, 4 and more threads of balderdash. However to answer your point, some members here have put up with this nonsense for at least 8 years on other forums.Quote: FaceI guess what I'm wondering, and it's more of a human nature curiousity than specifically within this forum, is why there's such a passionate response. Say you've figured out Baccarat and everyone loses their minds!"
He thinks he's got it. We don't. Need there be any more said? Or does this require 4 more threads of 20 more pages of increasing hostility? That's where I see it going, and I don't understand it.
History exists between certain members, it's not just a case of reading or choosing not to read dribble, it's only a matter of time before somebody starts to slag off how another members approach to the game. Sure that's no big deal, yet when it turns into a constant drone by somebody who obviously hasn't got a clue, well internet forums being what they are, it leads to the inevitable. Thankfully certain etiquettes exists at the WOO, something Demenscor couldn't adhere to, so what took place at the GG and BF forums won't be repeated here. After butting heads with the op for so long, I am of the opinion some things are said deliberately to provoke a response.
Ignore and you end up with even more fanciful Walter Mitty type stories, however your are right in one respect, harmless and charming, just like a clown.
Quote: Mission146
EDIT: Also, if you've only seen him six times, and he leaves ahead ~$1,200 or loses $5,000, and you witnessed him lose once, then he'd be roughly $1,000 ahead in the times that you saw him. That has a 47.37% chance of happening just by me walking in there and putting $1,000 on an Even Money bet.
I don't live in that casino so he goes way more
often than I see him there. The pit sure knows
who he is.
Quote: EvenBobYeah, well, don't be so sure. There's a guy that goes to 4 Winds
that I've seen there half a dozen times. He plays the B/R on roulette.
When he sits down, the pit goes into overdrive. They run to the
phone to call upstairs to get tape rolling on that table. Two, count
them, two, suits with clipboards write down every play this guy
makes.
He always buys in for $5K and makes $100 initial bets. He has a huge
binder notebook he writes things in. He has a weird progression that has
him betting $1000 very soon.
Anyone betting black at roulette is going to get pit attention, especially someone who buys in for 50 units and bets up to 10. $1000 on roulette is huge play for anywhere, let alone a tribal place like Four Winds where you're not expecting big bettors to show up. I'd expect a far larger share of the Four Winds net comes from slots (vs. tables) than a typical Strip resort in Vegas, but I could be wrong about that. If not, though, those stacks of black chips may be the biggest bets the pit sees all week.
Quote: MathExtremist... when you have someone making farfetched claims about being able to predict wins or losses, or otherwise beat the house with a betting system, many people who know better tend to come out of the woodwork to argue.
I get this, too. Some of the greatest threads here are a result of exactly this. But those great threads evolved, they progressed, they moved on. 97steps Craps deal, that's perfect example. Everyone was against him, but no one devolved into name calling and the thread progressed. New stuff happened, and everyone went along for the ride.
This one doesn't. It's just stuck at the very beginning with a claim being made and the challenge to prove it. It doesn't appear that it's ever going to move. Which leads me to...
Quote: SlackJawYokelFace I agree with what you are saying in theory but his examples are much different than yours. Do you go on a golf centric forum and claim that you can decrease someones handicap by 5 strokes with no support or evidence? Now I am not familiar with golf but i believe that this would be a bold claim and elicit quite a response from those members.
Yes, that would be an apt comparison. But if I told you I tied my left shoe with a right overhand knot and kept a chickenbone in my breast pocket to achieve said improvement, you'd either A) write me off as a quack, or B) follow along to see what other wild ideas I had. You might want to challenge me to prove it, but if I didn't want to... then what?
Gr8 isn't selling anything. He isn't calling you stupid for not following his advice. He comes to talk Bac, and, as I've said and as most agree, there's no reason to either believe him or even read at all. I personally don't think his play helps anymore than hurts; I'm of the boring "Math is God" types. But I'd be lying if I said I've taken nothing from him. After all, minimizing losses and taking advantage when it's present is what hockey is all about =) It might have not been his goal, but he's helped me with something.
If you think he's an attention whore and hate that fact, then don't post that you hate it and thereby give him attention. If he's been active so much that everyone knows who he is, then there's not much need to point him out. This whole thing strikes me as taking theology in college, then yelling at the Prof because you're an atheist that doesn't believe.
It's a curious thing, and I'm a curious fellow. Carry on =)
Quote: egaliteThankfully certain etiquettes exists at the WOO, something Demenscor couldn't adhere to, so what took place at the GG and BF forums won't be repeated here.
Hmmm...."so what took place at the GG and BF forums won't be repeated here"....
So is it safe to assume that you won't be "doctoring" any e-mails to make them falsely appear as proof of your perpetual lying and cheating? I should think not, because nothing....absolutely NOTHING....is beneath you.
Oh...wait...here's another of your infamous hits...
....So is it safe to assume that you won't be telephoning another forum member that you had a hard-on for AT THEIR HOME just so you could THREATEN THEM, to the point that the esteemed member had to call the authorities to report it as CRIMINAL? I should think not, because nothing....absolutely NOTHING....is beneath you.
You're as low as they come, Johno/Carlo/Egalite (and Goodness Knows how many more of your aliases out there). You know it, I know it, every internet forum contact you've ever made knows it.
Maybe, Johno/Carlo/Egalite, you should invite some of our fellow forum members to join your private forum....oh, wait....it's gone...POOF!...why don't you share with us the real story of what happened there? I, for one, am all ears......c'mon, man up.....sure, it mightn't be as disgusting and vile as "doctoring" another member's e-mails or calling and threatening another member in their own home, but it'll do for now.....
Quote: Mission146The last thing we need is a Forum argument about Forum arguments...
Yo, dawg, I heard...
Ah, nevermind =)
Quote: Mission146I'm going to step in and say that I would prefer the discussion of things that happened on other Forums be reserved for PM, in my opinion. The last thing we need is a Forum argument about Forum arguments, that would be viciously circular.
Hello, Mission146.
I'm hoping you can assist me with an issue I have with this esteemed forum:
As anyone that can read is able to see, I am under virtually constant attack from a few certain members of this forum. Now, Mission146, that is NOT my issue, because I'm fine with that, as I've proven over the years, I can take care of myself rather handily. So you should know, Mission146, thatI don't stress over the Spikes/EvenBobs nor the Johno/Carlo/Egalites. Them I can handle, as I always have.
But can't you see that there'll be dozens of those posts that'll either demean my play or my character, or both, for every single one of my counter-posts?
The reasons for that are easily discerned:
Those ill-meaning posters only know how to attack, relentlessly. Truth be damned, they are never-ending in their desperation to be as huge a distraction as they can when it comes to my threads and/or posts. So, as much as I ignore them, they obviously serve to distract from my true intentions in this forum, which is real Baccarat discourse at its very best.
Instead, my limited computer access is spent with posts like this one. Sorry.
But, back to my "issue":
I have an issue with you only responding, Mission146, after I make a rare counter-post, as you just did above.
Why wouldn't you have brought up your "discussion preferences" while they were posting 20 other posts that referred back to "other Forums"?
Why wait for my singular response when you've got dozens of prior examples that you could've responded to regarding your "discussion preferences"?
You know what MY "discussion preference" is?: BACCARAT. Baccarat theory and Baccarat play. Period.
It is only upon constant prodding that I am compelled to defend myself....
....and, lo and behold....up pops Mission146 with his "discussion preferences".
In fact, I'm sure, Mission146, you recall my suspension last week, don't you? Again, all prompted by my singular response to a plethora of character smashing and bashing. But nothing was ever said about that, only my response, MY response to all of the nonsense, was acted upon by the administration of this forum. Swiftly, too...no warning, just suspension.
Now, at least we're seeing a "warning"; a "discussion preference" from Mission146.
But the timing....the TIMING....of your "warning"/response, Mission146, bears an explanation, IMHO.
There's my issue. Why are all the adminstrator's subsequent actions following ONLY my posted responses to the consistant attacks upon me and my character? Where, oh where, Mission146 are you when there are constant lies and misinformations and deceits against me? Where are you then?
I'm nobody's fool, Mission146. Know that.....
Quote: gr8player
....and, lo and behold....up pops Mission146 .
Pierce doesn't 'pop up', he looms. Do you have
any idea how tall he is? He has to wear an airplane
warning beacon on his head when he goes outdoors.
Quote: gr8playerHello, Mission146. [sniiiiiip]
...
"Feed your head! Feed your head!"
Quote: gr8playerHello, Mission146.
I'm hoping you can assist me with an issue I have with this esteemed forum:
As anyone that can read is able to see, I am under virtually constant attack from a few certain members of this forum. Now, Mission146, that is NOT my issue, because I'm fine with that, as I've proven over the years, I can take care of myself rather handily. So you should know, Mission146, thatI don't stress over the Spikes/EvenBobs nor the Johno/Carlo/Egalites. Them I can handle, as I always have.
But can't you see that there'll be dozens of those posts that'll either demean my play or my character, or both, for every single one of my counter-posts?
The reasons for that are easily discerned:
Those ill-meaning posters only know how to attack, relentlessly. Truth be damned, they are never-ending in their desperation to be as huge a distraction as they can when it comes to my threads and/or posts. So, as much as I ignore them, they obviously serve to distract from my true intentions in this forum, which is real Baccarat discourse at its very best.
Instead, my limited computer access is spent with posts like this one. Sorry.
But, back to my "issue":
I have an issue with you only responding, Mission146, after I make a rare counter-post, as you just did above.
Why wouldn't you have brought up your "discussion preferences" while they were posting 20 other posts that referred back to "other Forums"?
Why wait for my singular response when you've got dozens of prior examples that you could've responded to regarding your "discussion preferences"?
You know what MY "discussion preference" is?: BACCARAT. Baccarat theory and Baccarat play. Period.
It is only upon constant prodding that I am compelled to defend myself....
....and, lo and behold....up pops Mission146 with his "discussion preferences".
In fact, I'm sure, Mission146, you recall my suspension last week, don't you? Again, all prompted by my singular response to a plethora of character smashing and bashing. But nothing was ever said about that, only my response, MY response to all of the nonsense, was acted upon by the administration of this forum. Swiftly, too...no warning, just suspension.
Now, at least we're seeing a "warning"; a "discussion preference" from Mission146.
But the timing....the TIMING....of your "warning"/response, Mission146, bears an explanation, IMHO.
There's my issue. Why are all the adminstrator's subsequent actions following ONLY my posted responses to the consistant attacks upon me and my character? Where, oh where, Mission146 are you when there are constant lies and misinformations and deceits against me? Where are you then?
I'm nobody's fool, Mission146. Know that.....
I'm not the moderator to which your post is directed, but I fail to understand how you feel that you are being singled out by Mission.
Seems to me that his statement was rather clear: he prefers disagreements from other forums to stay on other forums.
Your implication that it was deliberately posted after you is not without delusion.
I'm relatively new here, but I can speak from my limited experience on this forum that there are many times that several other posts can appear while one is posting. The "timing" to which you refer can be very difficult to achieve, as there are obviously others involved in this thread besides yourself and the moderator. Not to mention the fact that moderators have other obligations besides your specific thread.
If one is overly concerned with directing a post toward any one individual, the usual procedure is to either address that individual specifically or use the quote option; otherwise, it is generally assumed that a statement is directed to all.
Quote: gr8playerHello, Mission146.
But can't you see that there'll be dozens of those posts that'll either demean my play or my character, or both, for every single one of my counter-posts?
I don't know that anyone really knows enough about your play, at this point, to demean it. The main aspect of your posts that seem to be being demeaned in the multiple threads in which you have been involved is that you don't seem to say anything material about your play.
We also find ourselves outnumbered every day, if we put ourselves in a context where being outnumbered is the expectation. You're a devout Christian on an Atheist message board, you're the guy that hates all pop music on Lady Gaga's fan site, or you could be Galileo against the Inquisition. Either way, you're a guy who is espousing a bet selection and predictive process without providing any mathematical support (if any even exists) on an extremely math-centric gambling message board.
In short, if you don't expect to be outnumbered, you've come to the wrong place.
At the same time, though, this is precisely why I proposed our experiment. If it works, demonstrate it and explain why. If it doesn't work, you'll have the opportunity to explain why it would usually work. Like I said, 5-0, 2-3, 4-1 or 0-5 out of five shoes, that in and of itself proves nothing.
Quote:The reasons for that are easily discerned:
Those ill-meaning posters only know how to attack, relentlessly. Truth be damned, they are never-ending in their desperation to be as huge a distraction as they can when it comes to my threads and/or posts. So, as much as I ignore them, they obviously serve to distract from my true intentions in this forum, which is real Baccarat discourse at its very best.
1.) You have done nothing to conclusively demonstrate that your position is in any way representative of, "Truth." You have provided no mathematical, logical or empirical evidence supporting your positions.
2.) The only thing that would serve as a distraction from your posts would be any conversation that is off-topic. Questioning that which you espouse, as long as it relates to Baccarat, is very much on topic. Discussing arguments from other Forums (WHICH YOU WERE NOT THE FIRST TO DO) is off-topic, what I am typing right now is off-topic. I am detracting from the topicality and quality of this thread as I type this message.
3.) Whether or not that which you espouse qualifies as, "Baccarat discourse at its very best," is subjective.
Quote:I have an issue with you only responding, Mission146, after I make a rare counter-post, as you just did above.
Why wouldn't you have brought up your "discussion preferences" while they were posting 20 other posts that referred back to "other Forums"?
Why wait for my singular response when you've got dozens of prior examples that you could've responded to regarding your "discussion preferences"?
You know what MY "discussion preference" is?: BACCARAT. Baccarat theory and Baccarat play. Period.
It is only upon constant prodding that I am compelled to defend myself....
....and, lo and behold....up pops Mission146 with his "discussion preferences".
1.) As hard as it is to believe, I'm not on 24/7, I responded when I saw that this thread had taken a turn to discussing arguments that had taken place on other Forums. I did take notice of the fact that you did not start in this vein.
2.) Even if I am logged on, it doesn't mean that this is the thread I am reading at any given time. I work my way up from my oldest unread thread to the most recent, except I'll sometimes skip to some threads first if I have been directly answering questions for people or otherwise trying to help with something.
3.) You might also construe me waiting for your response, which technically I didn't intentionally do, as affording you the last word on the argument pertaining to what did or did not take place on other Forums. I don't know why you consider it an attack against you.
Let's say I really wanted to attack you on here, just hypothetically: I could Edit your post(s) to make it/them say whatever I want it/them to say, and then ban you for it.
I wouldn't do that, obviously, just saying what I could do if I actually had a vendetta. Truth be told, I rather enjoy your posting style and your (generally) calm and genial way of defending yourself and presenting your positions. I just don't happen to find any compelling reason to agree with your positions, at this time, but that's not something I hold against you in any way.
Quote:In fact, I'm sure, Mission146, you recall my suspension last week, don't you? Again, all prompted by my singular response to a plethora of character smashing and bashing. But nothing was ever said about that, only my response, MY response to all of the nonsense, was acted upon by the administration of this forum. Swiftly, too...no warning, just suspension.
Now, at least we're seeing a "warning"; a "discussion preference" from Mission146.
But the timing....the TIMING....of your "warning"/response, Mission146, bears an explanation, IMHO.
My explanation is that I called it when I saw it and when I felt that it was overtaking the conversation and had ceased to be in anyway relevant to this thread.
An allegation was made as to your lifetime losses, for example, that is relevant to this thread. If you have a winning Baccarat system, I would be interested in knowing:
A.) Are these allegations true?
B.) If they are true, how come your system has not yet afforded you the ability to fully recoup?
C.) If they are true, what system were you using at the time such lifetime losses were the case?
D.) Why should your current system be anymore successful than that system, if you were using a system at the time?
These are all relevant things because you claim to be able to beat the game of Baccarat. These are questions that I would wish to know the answers to, if the allegations are true. If the allegations are false, I'd wish to know they are false.
However, when we get into phone calls, threats, doctored E-Mails and all of that crap, Demenscor (whatever that is), whether or not you made responses at other people for the purpose of provocation...none of that is relevant to this Message Board. Phone calls...etc., that's relevant to you and another Member of this board privately, (apparently) so that should be taken to private message. Whether or not you were adjudicated by another message board Administrator to have made posts solely for the purpose of provocation (i.e. trolling) is not relevant to this message board or any member of this message board in the context of this message board in anyway whatsoever.
Your lifetime Baccarat results, those I wouldn't mind knowing and feel are quite relevant to the discussion. Lifetime bets, insofar as you know them, again, relevant.
Quote:There's my issue. Why are all the adminstrator's subsequent actions following ONLY my posted responses to the consistant attacks upon me and my character? Where, oh where, Mission146 are you when there are constant lies and misinformations and deceits against me? Where are you then?
I'm nobody's fool, Mission146. Know that.....
I have a problem with the word, "All," I'm not the one who banned you.
"Nobody's Fool," was probably one of Cinderella's better songs. That's not really relevant, though.
???Quote: AxelWolfGr8 can you explain why If you have this wonderful new Bac system with a huge positive edge 24/7, why are you wasting your admitted limited time here on a bunch of naysayers ? You should just be out playing and enjoying the spoils.
.
Quote: Mission146An allegation was made as to your lifetime losses, for example, that is relevant to this thread. If you have a winning Baccarat system, I would be interested in knowing:
A.) Are these allegations true?
This was posted in 2007 elsewhere (could supply the link, however I don't think they are allowed), this is not private information, it came from the horse mouth.
Quote: GR8Let me tell you how it's been for me. Over 20 years ago I started playing baccarat. I THOUGHT this was one easy game. Well, about $250,000 later (and lighter), I found out the TRUTH about me and the casino. BUUUT, rather than turn and run, I decided to do something about it. I was going to "perfect" my play, no matter what.
Ever tried to recoup quarter of a million bucks at $10~$20 a pop, winning less than 10 units per trip! Do-able in about 50 years if you believe in re-incarnation, again a victim of getting carried away and divulging too much!Quote: Mission146B.) If they are true, how come your system has not yet afforded you the ability to fully recoup?
As for Great Players bet selection, if you want to understand it, was spelt out here;
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/13219-desperately-seeking-baccarat/7/
Quote: GR8I'd look for a predominate current trend to exploit.
Let's say that the Banker has been "doubling", like this: BB BBB BB, where it's been "hitting the 2-hole" on a rather consistent basis in this shoe (or portion thereof). I'd bet a unit on that "second B", collect my profit, and await another "top-line" (read: "1-hole") Banker decision and then either parlay or, at the very least, half-parlay my next bet onto that same "second B" trend.
In other words, I don't mind getting a bit aggressive and raising my bets, but I want to do so INTO THE PROPENSITY of this current shoe's results.
Another thing I'd look for, pretty much staying with that same type of trend, is if the Banker has been hitting the "3-hole" with any consistency, as well. In that case, I can bet for the "second Banker" and immediately utilize my parlay option directly onto the next "3-hole" bet, staying with the Banker's side once more.
Now, this is just one a a few trends that I seek out, and it bears noting that I don't just bet for Banker trends; I'm an equal-opportunity trender, so the Player's side, if that's where the trends are holding, that's where my bets are going. I'm always seeking an opportunity to exploit the existing conditions of each particular shoe or, again, any portion thereof.
Sometimes there are none to exploit, and my bets sink into the dealer's tray. In that case I'll back off my bets, and await a better (read: "trendier") portion of the soe, or even the next shoe. I don't do much chasing, much preferring to allow the table to come to me. It will, eventually. My trends are proven to me, and I've no doubt in them whatsoever. It's just a matter of "when".
"Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."
Negative variance.
Winning is the easy part. Nice when the majority of your bets are being paid off, isn't it? Any organ grinder and their monkey can win during the "positive variance" times of their play.
But it is within the negative variance times, and each player's personal reaction to same, that will serve to define them as successful (or, unfortunately, unsuccessful) long-term Bac players.
"Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself".
Negative variance:
1.) No-bet (or, at the very least, minimilize your bets)
2.) Patience....await the "turn"....If your trends are worth a dollar, they'll appear soon enough.
3.) Discipline....play your same plays, your same money-management processes, and your same methodology ALWAYS. Never waver.
And then comes recoup:
Learn to recognize when it appears that your "upturn" is here, or, at the very least, impending/looming. Then be prepared to maximize your recoup of losses from your negative variance period. At recoup, return to base play.
Further down we are most privileged and should be extremely grateful that Great Player decided to post;
Quote: GR8Depends. If that B3 streak has been the cap for this shoe, then I'd be betting the streak to end at 3. If the B side has been running to at least the "4-hole", I'd be betting for the streak to continue at least once more. Lastly, if that B3 represents a "new top" (longest B streak of the shoe), I'd bet for the streak's continuation until it ended. Quite often, "new top"s can be precursers to some rather powerful streaks.
Regarding the 3-tiered staking plan, that was explained in the same thread;
Quote: GR8I remain at any level if I lost that level by only 3W vs 4L, or, in other words, a minus 1 (-1). Only if I lost that level with a -3 or a -5 or a -7 will I move up to the next level in my progression.
I also will revert back down to the prior level as I recoup that last lost level. So, say I'm that I'm down 9 units, losing 3 at level 1 and 3 at level two, I will go to level 3, but as soon as I am a +2 at level 3, which recouped my -3 from level 2, I will immediately revert back to level 2 to recoup the remaining 3 units from level 1. Like this:
-1 +1 -1 -1 -1 +1 -1 = -3
-2 +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +2 = -6
-3 +3 +3 +3 = +6...now the loss from level 2 has been recouped, so revert back to level 2 to recoup that -3 from level 1.
As Mission states above, this is not the forum to question why you felt the need to broadcast that you bet $400 per hand, when in fact you told me in an email you bet $10 per hand.Quote: GR8So is it safe to assume that you won't be "doctoring" any e-mails to make them falsely appear as proof of your perpetual lying and cheating? I should think not, because nothing....absolutely NOTHING....is beneath you.
If somebody decides to insult somebody 10 times a day on a gambling forum, while posting their phone number on another site, well more fool them I would say. As much as you try to discredit my previous actions, I'm not the -$250k loose spanner trying to convince readers I can beat the random game of Baccarat with an edge.Quote: GR8....So is it safe to assume that you won't be telephoning another forum member that you had a hard-on for AT THEIR HOME just so you could THREATEN THEM, to the point that the esteemed member had to call the authorities to report it as CRIMINAL?
Anyway enough of those shenanigans;
Great Player I am curious why you think and I quote
So you don't make as much money as a counter, but your edge is greater, am I understanding this correctly? Would you mind expanding why you feel your edge is greater? I am sitting upright close to the monitor, I sure would like to learn why, much appreciated.Quote: GR8Firstly, my edge at Bac is greater than any edge you'd have at BJ. The only reason I don't make more money is because I don't place as many bets as a BJ counter would, so their smaller edge, when multiplied by the number of bets placed, yields more dollars.
Incidentally since first being approached back in 2008 to write a book about Baccarat, have you ever given any more thought about doing so, I for one would buy it.
Have you been approached since. You do seem to attract some strange propositions while at the gaming tables, pit-bosses wanting to mirror your bets when they retire, waiter staff watching you during their time off?Quote: GR8Frankly speaking, I have been approached to write a book on my Baccarat play.
I sincerely think your should plough any profit into getting to the root cause of it all.
PS
I'm sure your all ears. Move in real close to your monitor, I'll share with you what's going down. Maybe it has been relocated as per the member notification, perhaps it wasn't, what was the final discovery, analysis? It's all a big secret, capish.Quote: gr8playerMaybe, Egalite, you should invite some of our fellow forum members to join your private forum....oh, wait....it's gone...POOF!...why don't you share with us the real story of what happened there? I, for one, am all ears
Quote: egalite
PS
I'm sure your all ears. Move in real close to your monitor, I'll share with you what's going down. Maybe it has been relocated as per the member notification, perhaps it wasn't, what was the final discovery, analysis? It's all a big secret, capish.
Exactly who is it that you're trying to hoodwink here????
"It's all a big secret, capish." Don't you mean to say it's all a big joke????
C'mon, man, you opened your own Baccarat forum, chock-filled with your advice and approach on playing this game; I only ask:
What happened to it????
C'mon, man, for once in your life...post THE TRUTH, will you...strike that, CAN YOU????
Yes, I still have some issues with it, but I'm afraid that we're going nowhere towards any real resolution; probably best to simply leave it at that.
Stay well.
Quote: AxelWolfGr8 can you explain why If you have this wonderful new Bac system with a huge positive edge 24/7, why are you wasting your admitted limited time here on a bunch of naysayers ? You should just be out playing and enjoying the spoils.
Hello, AxelWolf. Thank you for your interest.
You're right. You are absolutely right.
When I first came on board here, I knew little of this site. In fact, I'm quite sure that it was only through a posted "link" from another internet site that first landed me here. So I knew very little of the type of forum this was, but it did appear as very civil, and that appealed to me.
So I joined. I opened a new thread, "Desperately Seeking Baccarat", because, well, I am. I enjoy the discourse. This game is an unsolved puzzle, and that alone, IMHO, makes it all the more interesting as subject matter. Everyone has their own unique approach; the back and forth of those ideas can be a rewarding experience for all participants.
But, apparently, elsewhere....not particularly at this site, as I've come to learn. The hard way....
That's cool. We all can't like vanilla....can we?
Stay well, my friend.
In there were all the secrets of turning an original measly 2 pink chips into 1200 pinks chips profit over the course of 15 sessions (3 weeks and approx 107 shoes).Quote: gr8playerC'mon, man, you opened your own Baccarat forum, chock-filled with your advice and approach on playing this game; I only ask:
What happened to it????
C'mon, man, for once in your life...post THE TRUTH, will you...strike that, CAN YOU????
When I say "all the secrets", I do mean everything, lock stock and barrel, including images of shoes played, bet amounts & bet selection fully and comprehensibly explained, staking plan concept explained, the works. Winning 15 sessions out of 16, averaging 75u per night. I guess I just got lucky, right side of the bell curve. I would never claim an edge, I couldn't predict jack, then again I don't need to, because I know it's already impossible, so I don't count upon having to do so.
As you are aware, yes it did tank thereafter. It's like revving the engine of a car, at least I red-lined it before blowing a gasket.
The whereabouts of this exclusive site, is for me to know and you to find out.
1) I was under the impression you all ready solved baccarat and had a huge advantage with your new and improved system and were second to none when it came to playing.Quote: gr8playerHello, AxelWolf. . This game is an unsolved puzzle, and that alone, IMHO, makes it all the more interesting as subject matter.
That's cool. We all can't like vanilla....can we?
Stay well, my friend.
2) When it comes to gambling Everyone loves green, green = vanilla so Yes we all can like it.
In my experience people who have a REAL way to win, and are actually making money doing it they don't go around talking about it on message boards. At least not Until after the gig is up, unless they have ulterior motives, things like wanting to write a book or sell something.
most People who brag or talk about some type of gambling "system" or whatever are not winning at all but, they want some type of approval, validation or encouragement. Perhaps they just want people to think they are something they are not, some type of guru so they can impress people. Just like a guy might lie and brag to his friends or to a girl about his job to impress them or her. He himself dose not care if its true or not as long as they believe it, that makes him feel better. Honestly I think this is you.
If you were truly confident in your system and were able to make all this money you claim it to be worth you would keep your head down and your mouth shut unless you were really stupid person. If $100 bills kept showing up in your back yard would you tell everybody in the neighborhood? Sure you may tell a friend or two or talk about it afterwards.
If your you want to talk about bac so much and you have this wonderful system that always wins in the long run. Why not just have a few of your friends quit their jobs and bankroll them? Once they are winning loads of cash you guys can talk about bac till the cows come home. You will be their forever hero
Interesting... did you think you had a winning system when you started?Quote: egaliteIn there were all the secrets of turning an original measly 2 pink chips into 1200 pinks chips profit over the course of 15 sessions (3 weeks and approx 107 shoes).
When I say "all the secrets", I do mean everything, lock stock and barrel, including images of shoes played, bet amounts & bet selection fully and comprehensibly explained, staking plan concept explained, the works. Winning 15 sessions out of 16, averaging 75u per night. I guess I just got lucky, right side of the bell curve. I would never claim an edge, I couldn't predict jack, then again I don't need to, because I know it's already impossible, so I don't count upon having to do so.
As you are aware, yes it did tank thereafter. It's like revving the engine of a car, at least I red-lined it before blowing a gasket.
The whereabouts of this exclusive site, is for me to know and you to find out.
"Walter Mitty"Quote: AxelWolfmost People who brag or talk about some type of gambling "system" or whatever are not winning at all but, they want some type of approval, validation or encouragement. Perhaps they just want people to think they are something they are not, some type of guru so they can impress people. Just like a guy might lie and brag to his friends or to a girl about his job to impress them or her. He himself dose not care if its true or not as long as they believe it, that makes him feel better. Honestly I think this is you.
Absolutely and unequivocally not, I knew I had a good way of playing and it would present a hard target to make lose. I am not of the same cloth as "great player", our approaches to the game are like chalk and cheese. I already know "every possible scenario" ends equally. There isn't, can't be and never will be any magic formula waiting to be discovered. The puzzle is already solved, basic logic dictates there is no advantage or disadvantage no matter what you do, therefore it may be prudent to look at factors other than pick 'one side or the other'.Quote: AxelWolfInteresting... did you think you had a winning system when you started?
Quote: gr8playerMission146, thank you for your detailed response.
Yes, I still have some issues with it, but I'm afraid that we're going nowhere towards any real resolution; probably best to simply leave it at that.
Stay well.
What?? You mean you have turned down a 2nd challenge, my esteemed teacher????? But why?
Tell me, teacher, how else can we convince the rest of the world that you are the foremost expert in everything baccarat???
Quote: AxelWolf1) I was under the impression you all ready solved baccarat and had a huge advantage with your new and improved system and were second to none when it came to playing.
2) When it comes to gambling Everyone loves green, green = vanilla so Yes we all can like it.
In my experience people who have a REAL way to win, and are actually making money doing it they don't go around talking about it on message boards. At least not Until after the gig is up, unless they have ulterior motives, things like wanting to write a book or sell something.
most People who brag or talk about some type of gambling "system" or whatever are not winning at all but, they want some type of approval, validation or encouragement. Perhaps they just want people to think they are something they are not, some type of guru so they can impress people. Just like a guy might lie and brag to his friends or to a girl about his job to impress them or her. He himself dose not care if its true or not as long as they believe it, that makes him feel better. Honestly I think this is you.
If you were truly confident in your system and were able to make all this money you claim it to be worth you would keep your head down and your mouth shut unless you were really stupid person. If $100 bills kept showing up in your back yard would you tell everybody in the neighborhood? Sure you may tell a friend or two or talk about it afterwards.
If your you want to talk about bac so much and you have this wonderful system that always wins in the long run. Why not just have a few of your friends quit their jobs and bankroll them? Once they are winning loads of cash you guys can talk about bac till the cows come home. You will be their forever hero
As much as I agreed handily (and stated as much) with your prior post, AxelWolf, this one.....not so much.
I have a full time job, I do not live anywhere near the casinos, and I've a family that looks to me as their main support....so my playing Baccarat full-time is, at this point in time, not feasible.
And as far as the "$100 bills showing up in my back yard", what sort of analogy are you attempting to convey? That I'm virtually "minting money" at each and every session? Nothing could be further from the truth of it, my friend.
You see, I grind out my profits. I am guaranteed nothing. Each and every time that I take that seat at the Bac table to begin a new session, my "counter" resets to zero, and I've got to "prove myself" at that new table all over again. Makes no difference that I might've won the last few sessions; I begin anew, with all brand new challenges, at every new starting session.
Do you think that any of that is "easy money"? I can assure you, it is not. It's a back-and-forth tug of war....but, that's a battle that I consider myself well-armed for. That, after all, is my personal responsibility.
Quote: Beethoven9thWhat?? You mean you have turned down a 2nd challenge, my esteemed teacher????? But why?
Tell me, teacher, how else can we convince the rest of the world that you are the foremost expert in everything baccarat???
I haven't "turned down" a thing as of yet, Beethoven9th. It's as much a matter of my setting (or should I say "getting") the necessary time aside as it is anything else.
Quote: gr8playerI haven't "turned down" a thing as of yet, Beethoven9th. It's as much a matter of my setting (or should I say "getting") the necessary time aside as it is anything else.
Since you haven't turned down either challenge, I say "bravo!", gr8player.
A true gentleman. I say "bravo!", gr8player.
No lies and no disrespect. I say "bravo!", gr8player.
No running away from challenges that YOU made. I say "bravo!", gr8player.
I sincerely hope that you are proud of your wisdom, gr8player, for you are indeed the world's foremost expert on everything baccarat!
To which I say "bravo!".
I don't want to go back and look but I was under the impression you claimed this was far more profitable then any counting system with a bigger edge. Since there is almost no heat on baccarat this would be just like printing money. If you could just make 1 unit per day you would be filthy rich.Quote: gr8playerAs much as I agreed handily (and stated as much) with your prior post, AxelWolf, this one.....not so much.
I have a full time job, I do not live anywhere near the casinos, and I've a family that looks to me as their main support....so my playing Baccarat full-time is, at this point in time, not feasible.
And as far as the "$100 bills showing up in my back yard", what sort of analogy are you attempting to convey? That I'm virtually "minting money" at each and every session? Nothing could be further from the truth of it, my friend.
You see, I grind out my profits. I am guaranteed nothing. Each and every time that I take that seat at the Bac table to begin a new session, my "counter" resets to zero, and I've got to "prove myself" at that new table all over again. Makes no difference that I might've won the last few sessions; I begin anew, with all brand new challenges, at every new starting session.
Do you think that any of that is "easy money"? I can assure you, it is not. It's a back-and-forth tug of war....but, that's a battle that I consider myself well-armed for. That, after all, is my personal responsibility.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't want to go back and look but I was under the impression you claimed this was far more profitable then any counting system with a bigger edge. Since there is almost no heat on baccarat this would be just like printing money. If you could just make 1 unit per day you would be filthy rich.
Not quite, let's say your playing 'big', $1000 chips and you want to make 1 unit per session. per shoe or whatever. The op stated recently at the beginning of one session he won 8 bets and lost 14. Excluding tax that would put somebody $6k the hole, that's just flat betting, probably worst using any neg progression, despite crawling your way back, it would still require a hefty BR and strong stomach.
From the impression he has given he has a system that is better then the best card counting system and worth more. If this were true he would have Pros knocking down his door willing to to make over 10k bets with him, they would probably offer him a generous free-roll. If I were him I would take the challenge prove your system and if its money he want its money he will have. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.Quote: egaliteNot quite, let's say your playing 'big', $1000 chips and you want to make 1 unit per session. per shoe or whatever. The op stated recently at the beginning of one session he won 8 bets and lost 14. Excluding tax that would put somebody $6k the hole, that's just flat betting, probably worst using any neg progression, despite crawling your way back, it would still require a hefty BR and strong stomach.
Question though... If one could memorize (not count) the cards that have been played and therefore know the remaining cards, could there be a player advantage?
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13If one could memorize (not count) the cards that have been played and therefore know the remaining cards, could there be a player advantage?
As far as Player/Banker bets are concerned, all the experts say no. (At least not any meaningful edge)
But I'm curious, why in the world is baccarat illegal in AZ?
