These Shoes Are Made For Talkin'......
ZCore13
Quote: boymimbo
It's like talking to my wife or my daughter. I'm starting to get it now.
Thats exactly what talking to GR8 is like. You want to say 'huh?'
all the time. I tried using logic on my youngest daughter when
she was about 21, it failed miserably. Now I just leave all of them
alone, I'm much happier if I have no idea whats going on. They
don't want our input anyway, why bother.
This is truly nuts, it doesn't matter if you have $10, $25 or "a bag" on the felt, nor does it matter what has transpired or how many times you perceive something to have transpired in a shoe, in a session or all night, the odds never ever change.Quote: gr8playerOK. But, while you might not be able to see it as clearly as I might, I contend that I'm doing pretty much the very same thing. I sense an opportunity, a portion of the shoe that is dispensing favorable results for me, and I pounce on it. And, to me, anyway, it's just as "mathematically sound" as your play is, if not even more so when you take into account my bet size "manipulation".
A classic example of the perils of the effects of long term gambling along with the gambling related stress can have on ones belief system and overall mental well-being. Without much thought I could easily rattle off 5 posters from various web-forums exhibiting to varying degrees the same delusional psychopathic symptoms, perhaps we should treat it as a warning.
"Like a dull knife that just ain't cutting, just talking loud and saying nothing and saying nuthin". Hey that wasn't a rap song, it came out long before the advent of rap. The performer was the God Father of Soul and one and only Mr James Brown.Quote: IbeatyouracesRemind me of the old rap song "Talkin' Loud, Sayin' Nothin'"
Good God, take me to the bridge and drop me off.
1000 shoes that wouldn't be the Zumma books by any chance? (actually it was 1600 shoes) You stated on gamblersglen you never kept your score cards, when requested by the drooling masses to actually post a shoe so they could better understand. So I guess you just confirmed my prior post relating to the 56% strike rate, even I knew such data was totally irrelevant.Quote: gr8playerOK, OK, Mr. Semantics, try not to look down your nose upon me:
Historical: my recorded statistics on each trend over 1000 shoes.
Variance: the "drift" from their median line, both up- and down-wards
Statistics: the resulting numbers and/or percentages of same
Does that make you feel better, thecesspit, knowing my definitions? Or, rather, didn't you already know them but you preferred a rather lame attempt at embarrassing me?
This forum absolutely reeks of elitism, and without a doubt does not deserve to have me share a thing about me or my Bac play in it.....you all deserve each other.
Please don't play the "spit out the dummy" routine, 'we should be so grateful', as it's now appearing as rehash of your 'GG' posts from about 7 years ago. Lemme guess, the next thread will focus on your wonderful bet size so that we swoon in admiration, says the great player who couldn't possibly recoup their life-time action even if re-incarnated.
Quote: Zcore13Hey, that's a great strategy... BBB P BBB P B it's obvious the next choice in the pattern is B! I wonder if this can be used for blackjack?? I've never heard of this system before. I think I'm gonna be rich if it can!!
ZCore13
A forum member had asked me for an example of my trend play, and I obliged.
To mock my doing so or even the example itself, is, IMHO, classless.
Now, while I certainly do expect that sort of thing from Johno/Carlo/Egalite (and Goodness Knows how many other forum aliases he uses, all pointing towards his deceit and deception), I'd come to expect a bit better treatment from you, Zcore13.
(Sidenote: What those that actually do follow my posts and my play (rather than just pre-judge and/or ridicule them) know is that it matters not if that particular trend bet, on a singular level, wins or not; it is what I do with those results and my reaction to them that truly matters. Unfortunately, those that wish to be dismissive will find a rather broad audience in this forum (especially now that John/Carlo/Egalite has come out of the woodwork to simply piss on anything and everything "gr8player", as he's been obsessed with me personally....jealous much?....for years). Therefore, you mightn't read as much about that simply because many are rather intimidated to post their opinions in this forum. Know that....)
Quote: DeMangoHoover Dam Johno! I was wondering when you were going to jump this thread!
Spot-on, D-man, spot-on.
It just wouldn't be a completed forum without Johno/Carlo/Egalite obsessing over my every post.....stay tuned, fellow members......he's far from done pissing on absolutely anything and everything "gr8player"......
Witness yesterday afternoon's session @ Mohegan Sun:
I was "treading water" (up about a unit) when I realize that we're about 2/3 into this shoe and there's been but 3 singles. The two hole was poppin' (much of it before I had gotten to the table), with singles lagging well behind.
I then see: B P and now decide to go into "singles mode". (Sidenote: I awaited first sighting before doing so.) So I'm now betting for a "singles correction" to take place. Betting it conservatively, I still managed to pick up 6 units (I cashed out exactly a +6 Units for this short session after comm and tip).
In hindsight, I could've been a been a bit more aggressive in my betting and picked up probably 3 units more, but I decided to bet only for the singles and not anti-2 or anti-3 as well. And I'll tell you why: it'd been a decent session, and I didn't want to get aggressive right there, because I didn't want to chance a "give-back", where I'd find myself towards the end of a decent shoe with little or no profit. So I stuck with betting for the singles only, and made a bee line for the cashier's cage with my profit in hand.
This is what I mean about shoes (or portions thereof) "talking". Those singles were ripe for the picking. Why? Because runs don't last. Look, there are, on average, 18 - 20 singles per shoe....ain't gonna see a shoe with only 3. That'd be a very rare event, and I was very willing and able to bet against that event. And I made money.
Hey, don't get me wrong, I'd rather see the 2- and 3- and 4-holes being filled (read: hitting) the entire shoe, but, can you understand, that just doesn't happen. If it did, I'd own the place, as would any "trender" worth his salt. So, assuming that just does not happen, what I'm left with is to play for the singles after charting the first 2/3 of that particular shoe. Patience and discipline and experience and knowledge go a long, long way in this game; know that. You catch it right and you cash it out.
And, as always, I wish it for all of you.
It doesn't matter if somebody is trending prior results, waiting for triggers, using templates, using standard bet selections or simply guessing, it is still a random outcome. However to claim you enjoy any advantage, even greater than any BJ counter, is quite simply ludicrous.Quote: gr8playerA forum member had asked me for an example of my trend play, and I obliged.
To mock my doing so or even the example itself, is, IMHO, classless.
Your posts really don't stem from gambling, baccarat, nor advising newbies, The true nature has more to do with a desperation to fill some void that has been evident for many years. That's the sad reality of it, maybe when your willing to acknowledge that fact you might be able to move on and post without coming across like your doing it from a pulpit, skipping the unsubstantiated baloney advantageous claims.
Each time you mention "unit size", who are you trying to impress, I'm sure there are some pretty heavy bettors on this site. This isn't like other forums you have been use to, were the majority don't gamble and were pretty clueless, were even the daftest suggest was guaranteed a "thank you for posting" response. There are some savvy members on this site, who can see straight through the nonsense you are so desperate to promote.
Incidentally, regarding what is classless, maybe try operating on the level of a middle aged man rather than a petulant child, "we don't deserve", "if you leave it would be a shame". I want you to stay, I want you to maybe realise the number of experienced gamblers that aren't buying into the stupidity. Alas I suspect that after three+ decades of emotionally draining indulgences, you are so far gone, psyche indelibly marked, that, that particular penny is destined to remain forever lodged.
"ludicrous"
"desperation"
"sad"
"baloney"
"daftest"
"nonsense"
"desperate"
"stupidity"
How far of a leap of faith might one need to take to come to the realization of your obviously biased and overly-critical nature towards "anything gr8player"?
Quote: gr8playerLet's move on to the much more important business of "talkin' shoes", the very subject of my thread:
Witness yesterday afternoon's session @ Mohegan Sun:
I was "treading water" (up about a unit) when I realize that we're about 2/3 into this shoe and there's been but 3 singles. The two hole was poppin' (much of it before I had gotten to the table), with singles lagging well behind.
I then see: B P and now decide to go into "singles mode". (Sidenote: I awaited first sighting before doing so.) So I'm now betting for a "singles correction" to take place. Betting it conservatively, I still managed to pick up 6 units (I cashed out exactly a +6 Units for this short session after comm and tip).
In hindsight, I could've been a been a bit more aggressive in my betting and picked up probably 3 units more, but I decided to bet only for the singles and not anti-2 or anti-3 as well. And I'll tell you why: it'd been a decent session, and I didn't want to get aggressive right there, because I didn't want to chance a "give-back", where I'd find myself towards the end of a decent shoe with little or no profit. So I stuck with betting for the singles only, and made a bee line for the cashier's cage with my profit in hand.
This is what I mean about shoes (or portions thereof) "talking". Those singles were ripe for the picking. Why? Because runs don't last. Look, there are, on average, 18 - 20 singles per shoe....ain't gonna see a shoe with only 3. That'd be a very rare event, and I was very willing and able to bet against that event. And I made money.
Hey, don't get me wrong, I'd rather see the 2- and 3- and 4-holes being filled (read: hitting) the entire shoe, but, can you understand, that just doesn't happen. If it did, I'd own the place, as would any "trender" worth his salt. So, assuming that just does not happen, what I'm left with is to play for the singles after charting the first 2/3 of that particular shoe. Patience and discipline and experience and knowledge go a long, long way in this game; know that. You catch it right and you cash it out.
And, as always, I wish it for all of you.
Another interesting fact regarding yesterday's session:
While I was making money on those singles, not one other person was betting similarly at the table. Not one. Now, don't get me wrong....they weren't betting against me (except for my first win), they simply were not betting. Full table, all staring at each other and mumbling something in an Asian language, and no one, apparently, expected those singles except me.
I point this out for a reason. Alot more often than some of you might think it so, most trenders do not play identically. So even though we're all reading the exact same results from the exact same shoe, we all decipher those results differently. And determine our bets accordingly.
So the next time someone posts about trending being an impractical and useless lesson in futility, maybe you just might come to the realization that not all trenders are equal in their play, nor their patience, nor their discipline, nor their money management, nor their results. To view all trenders and all Bac players, for that matter, with the same singular lens will only amount to short-sighting yourself.
Quote: egaliteThere are some savvy members on this site, who can see straight through the nonsense you are so desperate to promote.
You got that right.
That ain't never going to happen. Posters have requested over the years to post an actual shoe which had been played on other forums, he simply wouldn't, rather stated he no longer keeps them. However in this thread states he has/had 1000 of them. I've always surmised the real reason we never got any 'real world' shoe examples over the years at either GG or BF is down to somebody wanting to avoid inviting further ridicule.Quote: Beethoven9thMy teacher gr8player loves to tell us how great he is at baccarat, yet he NEVER gives actual advice or specifics. Why so, teacher????
Of course we can only wonder at what is true and what is not. I do know after analysing both Zumma books I posted a silly and somewhat useless trigger bet of when to bet "same as last" otherwise referred to as "follow the last decision", the strike rate was something like 54~56%.
Obviously these figures are totally meaningless in live play as we are playing a random game and not a particular favourable Zumma shoe. However GR8 in his infinite wisdom, suddenly starting posting not only one of his bet selections carried an advantage, but was proven! The illogical [read craziness] is a tad bit strange to say the least. Even more so when one considers the combination possibilities of a 70 hand shoe is something in the region of 1.1E+20, then 1000, 1600 or even a million shoes, is far from proven. However it sounds good, something to use to impress those that know no better, yet seems to have back-fired on this forum.
After enduring this Wendel-like-character on numerous forums, the best moment for me without a shadow of doubt, was when he had an some kind of epiphany moment and decided to invited forum friends to post a shoe (single result at a time) and he offered to post what came next. I have to admit I would pay an admission price to see the same stunt played out here.
Don't know what happened, but I'd like to think someone just got tired of the BS piling up.
Quote: DeMangoProbably a nasty PM., and as always, I wish it for all for Gr8.
Hi yawl think tell what commoners do the boards bottom line.
Eye ball number visitors at the bottom.
Flip side 2 headed coin two peoples all the time.
Quote: Zcore13
As the Wiz said earlier in this thread, if you're going to take the time to count cards and attempt to have an advantage over the house,
why not play blackjack side bet games that are proven beatable.
Why not play Bacc side-bets that are proven beatable?
You're wasting your time when the math tells you it's not worth the time to do it.
We gamble off these for long term bonds. Do not sell all fire sale, go in desert for prospers on gambles.
No see BGV tells prospers for g8storis.
He not it big bets.
All of which, for me, anyway, raises many more questions about our esteemed administration than it ever could about myself and my suspension.
All I ask is for an administrator to peruse my posts....all of my posts, not just the one with the "f-word" (no, not THAT f-word) in it. I pride myself as a gentleman, first and foremost. And I happen to believe that my body of work here in this most esteemed forum would serve as proof of that fact.
I treat everyone with all due respect, even those that disagree with some of my positions. As a gentleman, respect is important to me. We can disagree, but respect works best only as a mutual affair.
It was only after gross disrespect from certain parties (no need to mention names....one only need to read this thread) that I reacted as I did. While I can agree that I should not have allowed myself to be brought down to the "basement level" of those posts aimed at discrediting me, I simply cannot agree with the adminstration's one-sided response to same.
Shame on this administration and its seemingly "knee-jerk reaction" towards my postings.....
Quote: Beethoven9thMy teacher gr8player loves to tell us how great he is at baccarat, yet he NEVER gives actual advice or specifics. Why so, teacher????
Can't agree with your assessment, Beethoven9th.
Practically each and every one of my posts are all about my approaches to this game, and I try to impart as much pertinant information as I'm able to in my rather limited "computer access" time.
If you have a question regarding any of my Baccarat theories or plays, simply ask it. I'll do my very best to respond accordingly.
Know this, I am here to discuss Baccarat, and am pleased to do so.
The "side shows", IMHO, are a waste of time....computer time that I simply do not have.
And, sure, I'm hip to your apparent sarcasm, but know this:
I know alot about this game, and my Baccarat play is second to none.
Re-read my posts in this forum, and get back to me with any questions.
The result?: You'll improve your Bac play by leaps and bounds.
EDITED TO ADD:
In fact, you mightn't even be a fan of Bac, but every form of gaming requires the very necessary patience and discipline approaches that you'll find permeating throughout my posts. It can only be of help to you, or anyone, for that matter.
Quote: gr8playerIf you have a question...simply ask it. I'll do my very best to respond accordingly.
gr8player,
Thank you for taking the time to respond to me, my esteemed teacher! And thanks for being so willing to answer my questions.
I have a whole host of questions since you are the world's foremost expert on everything baccarat, but let me start off with a simple one, my friend:
Have you accepted the challenge yet?
I humbly await your response, my esteemed teacher, and I wish it all for you!
I suppose it only serves me right, as much as I just tried to get through to you and assist you in your play, I should've known better as to who, exactly, I was talking to. Nevermind....
Quote: gr8playeras much as I just tried to get through to you and assist you in your play.
Rather like someone helping a drowning man
by throwing him a rock, but its the thought
that counts, I guess.
Quote: gr8playerI know alot about this game, and my Baccarat play is second to none.
Proof. Not words. Proof. Any wise guy can say they have the best Baccarat play in the world. Few can prove it.
I would bet evens I can do better on a single shoe than you can. You'll now say 'it's a single shoe'. Indeed. But you would have the advantage over me if your statements are true.
Fancy words butter no parsnips.
Quote: thecesspitI would bet evens I can do better on a single shoe than you can. You'll now say 'it's a single shoe'. Indeed. But you would have the advantage over me if your statements are true.
Hmmm...I'd rethink that proposition, my friend; and I had you pegged as alot smarter than that. There's no advantage to be had; not for you, and not for me....
As to your "Fancy words butter no parsnips" comment; that's fine, too, because I'm watching my cholesterol intake anyhow.
Quote: thecesspitProof. Not words. Proof.
GR8 is the driving instructor who never has you
leave the parking lot. He spends every day talking
about seat belts, and tire pressure, and accident
stats. You never make it to the actual highway
where he teaches you how to drive. Eventually
you give up and throw eggs at his house and
leave burning bags of dog doodoo on his porch.
Quote: gr8playerHmmm...I'd rethink that proposition, my friend; and I had you pegged as alot smarter than that. There's no advantage to be had; not for you, and not for me....
If there's no advantage to be had, then how can you possibly have an advantage when you walk into the casino? How can you be 'second to none' playing baccarat? If you have no advantage, then your are just the same as any random player with or without a system.
If you don't think 52% of the time you will win during a shoe. Or if you don't think you expectation is +2.3 unit per shoe, or some other measure.
I know my expectation when I play a shoe of baccarat (flat betting on every decision). I can work it out for a variety of different systems (and have done in the past). I know that I would be evens to play against any random joe. But if you are truly 'second to none', I would not be a 50/50 prop against you., I'd be less than 50/50. If I am less than 50/50 to win a evens bet, you have the best of it. So there's the advantage.
You telling me there's no advantage to you, means you have NO advantage playing baccarat, so... well, you have nothing to offer really. All the discipline and historical variance statistics are meaningless, the examination of your mental attitude, or desire to be able to study the game to win. It's a charade. If you can't expect to beat a random joe over the course of a shoe, you can't expect to win over the casino, and well.. I'd advise you stop playing baccarat if your not having fun with it.
Just fancy words, no proof.. remind me again what you offer that's worth the energy of replying to? Because it's looking like hollow, shallow noise to me.
Quote: EvenBobGR8 is the driving instructor who never has you
leave the parking lot. He spends every day talking
about seat belts, and tire pressure, and accident
stats. You never make it to the actual highway
where he teaches you how to drive. Eventually
you give up and throw eggs at his house and
leave burning bags of dog doodoo on his porch.
It's worse. He's like the driving instructor who promises to teach you, but turns up on on a bike, and has never actually been seen driving.
Quote: On 4/18/2013, gr8player said:I play Baccarat, a closed-end, shoe game, AS AN AP. Can you understand my true meaning regarding that statement? I believe that I, too, play an AP game.
Please prove the naysayers wrong and accept the challenge, my esteemed master, gr8player!!
Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: On 4/18/2013, gr8player said:I play Baccarat, a closed-end, shoe game, AS AN AP. Can you understand my true meaning regarding that statement? I believe that I, too, play an AP game.
Please prove the naysayers wrong and accept the challenge, my esteemed master, gr8player!!
He believes that he plays a +EV game of baccarat, and judging from his posts, that game is based on "bet selection" as a result of "trend detection." He's wrong about playing a +EV game, but no short-term challenge will change his mind. Neither will argument from mathematical reason.
Fortunately, the casino doesn't care about anyone's beliefs on systems play, bet selection, trend detection, money management, or any of the other labels commonly applied to what is really the Gambler's Fallacy. The house edge on a well-protected[1] baccarat game doesn't change no matter what the bettor believes or doesn't believe.
It's no crime to bet superstitiously, or to fall back on our innate bias toward pattern-detection. I do it all the time because it's fun. But I don't delude myself into thinking my gambling results are based on anything other than luck. Nor should anyone else. But if they do, and many people do, it's not necessarily the end of the world. Does it really matter that the OP is wrong about having a +EV game?
[1] e.g., one wherein the player doesn't actually know what cards are coming next.
Quote: MathExtremist
Thats hilarious. That was me 20 years ago in the newsgroups.
Quote: thecesspitIf there's no advantage to be had, then how can you possibly have an advantage when you walk into the casino? How can you be 'second to none' playing baccarat? If you have no advantage, then your are just the same as any random player with or without a system.
If you don't think 52% of the time you will win during a shoe. Or if you don't think you expectation is +2.3 unit per shoe, or some other measure.
I know my expectation when I play a shoe of baccarat (flat betting on every decision). I can work it out for a variety of different systems (and have done in the past). I know that I would be evens to play against any random joe. But if you are truly 'second to none', I would not be a 50/50 prop against you., I'd be less than 50/50. If I am less than 50/50 to win a evens bet, you have the best of it. So there's the advantage.
You telling me there's no advantage to you, means you have NO advantage playing baccarat, so... well, you have nothing to offer really. All the discipline and historical variance statistics are meaningless, the examination of your mental attitude, or desire to be able to study the game to win. It's a charade. If you can't expect to beat a random joe over the course of a shoe, you can't expect to win over the casino, and well.. I'd advise you stop playing baccarat if your not having fun with it.
Just fancy words, no proof.. remind me again what you offer that's worth the energy of replying to? Because it's looking like hollow, shallow noise to me.
Are you serious, thecesspit?
Of course I play with an advantage, I wouldn't play otherwise. But that doesn't preclude anyone from getting the better of me in any singular shoe. A player simply betting FTL (Follow The Last) might get the better of me if that particular shoe were streaky enough. What would that prove?
Furthermore, if I won only 52% of the shoes I played, I'd quit this game. Period. Why? Because often times I'll lose more units into a losing shoe than I win into a winning one, so I need to win more shoes than I lose. And I do. That's how I built my play. I am very well aware of the fact that some shoes are untrendable, and so I've allotted for that in both my bet selection and my money management computations. It's in the shoe and session money management, based all upon the most current conditions/results, where my play all comes together and yields, dare I say it, my ADVANTAGE.
My playing of a shoe vs you or anyone would prove nothing but to be a lesson in futility. My Baccarat play isn't built like that.
Lastly, thecesspit, should you really and truly need the "reminding of what I offer":
I offer a winning approach to this game to those that can comprehend and understand what this game of Baccarat is all about:
It is NOT about winning this next bet or even this next shoe. Therein lies the rub....and where so many of you begin to fall off of the wagon. They just don't "get it".
It takes a much, much more long term vision of this game, and a plan that is pre-disposed to handle virtually anything and everything that the casino can throw at it.
If one can learn to protect their downside, then they're left with a plethora of upside.
That's what I bring to the table, that's what I offer, and that's the ONLY TRUE PATH TO SUCCESS at this game.
(Sidenote: I'm off to the Borgata tonight and tomorrow....I'll be back with you guys on Saturday. Stay well....)
Quote: gr8playerAre you serious, thecesspit?
Of course I play with an advantage,.
To GR8 an advantage is getting their early
and using the restroom before he sits down.
He considers staying hydrated during the game
as 'advantage play'.
Quote: gr8playerAre you serious, thecesspit?
Of course I play with an advantage, I wouldn't play otherwise. But that doesn't preclude anyone from getting the better of me in any singular shoe. A player simply betting FTL (Follow The Last) might get the better of me if that particular shoe were streaky enough. What would that prove?
Now, we're learning some stuff. What this says to me is that Gr8Player tends to often bet against the streak, at least more often than he bets with it.
Quote:Furthermore, if I won only 52% of the shoes I played, I'd quit this game. Period. Why? Because often times I'll lose more units into a losing shoe than I win into a winning one, so I need to win more shoes than I lose. And I do. That's how I built my play.
Negative Progression, of some kind, maybe even usually flat-betting with a Negative Progression mixed in as gr8 deems appropriate.
Quote: gr8playerAre you serious, thecesspit?
Of course I play with an advantage, I wouldn't play otherwise. But that doesn't preclude anyone from getting the better of me in any singular shoe. A player simply betting FTL (Follow The Last) might get the better of me if that particular shoe were streaky enough. What would that prove?
Furthermore, if I won only 52% of the shoes I played, I'd quit this game. Period. Why? Because often times I'll lose more units into a losing shoe than I win into a winning one, so I need to win more shoes than I lose. And I do. That's how I built my play. I am very well aware of the fact that some shoes are untrendable, and so I've allotted for that in both my bet selection and my money management computations. It's in the shoe and session money management, based all upon the most current conditions/results, where my play all comes together and yields, dare I say it, my ADVANTAGE.
Why not take an even money bet if you have better then 50:50 chance of winning. I mean if I had a weighted coin that came up heads 55% of the time I'd offer to bet on heads against anyone who would pay me even money to do so yet you won't. Also lets say you really do believe in yours system you said before you were doing well in Baccarat and thought you knew everything and then it all came crashing down and you lost. How do you know your not just on another lucky streak I mean gambling can have massive swings maybe you just happen to be on the upside right now and later on it will all come crashing down again. I mean with no mathematical background all you have is a hunch.
Quote: gr8playerAre you serious, thecesspit?
Absolutely. I'm kinda offended you think I am not.
Quote:Of course I play with an advantage, I wouldn't play otherwise.
So play.
Quote:But that doesn't preclude anyone from getting the better of me in any singular shoe. A player simply betting FTL (Follow The Last) might get the better of me if that particular shoe were streaky enough. What would that prove?
It shows two things :
1) You are scared to show what you know
2) You are not willing to take Advantage Plays.
Course I can 'get lucky'. Thing is, I should get less lucky than you do.
I know full well that a single shoe doesn't prove anything. However, you either have an advantage over any random shoe or you don't. If you don't understand why that is so, you don't understand what advantage play -means-. If it's over 52%, well done. Great. Fantastic. It means you should welcome playing heads up against a random player for money. As you have way the best of it. It's a bet... no-one knows before hand if they will win or lose it. They may know the odds of it (or not), but of course one bet doesn't prove a system. Not asking you to -prove- a system. I'm saying that if you believe you have an advantage, you should be taking up these offers where you have way the best of it.
The fact you don't, tells me you are not a advantage player at all. I'm not (and the 'challenge') is not saying you MUST win. It's saying if you believe you have the best of the play, if the knowledge you have is so good, then take the bet... just as you'll take the bet when the right trend you track is up. Maybe it doesn't work out for the one play. May be it does. Thats the gamble. If you play as you say you do, you take it all the time.
It's very telling when offered that you refuse. Not due to the mechanics, or the bet size, or anything else, but with excuses that don't pertain to the idea under test.
Quote:
My playing of a shoe vs you or anyone would prove nothing but to be a lesson in futility. My Baccarat play isn't built like that.
No, it would be an opportunity to play again with an advantage.
Quote:
Lastly, thecesspit, should you really and truly need the "reminding of what I offer":
No I don't, actually. I need proof that you have anything to offer that is provable, testable or even useful.
Quote:I offer a winning approach to this game to those that can comprehend and understand what this game of Baccarat is all about:
Unproven.
Quote:
It is NOT about winning this next bet or even this next shoe. Therein lies the rub....and where so many of you begin to fall off of the wagon. They just don't "get it".
Actually, I know that each bet is individual and that the chance of winning -even with a advantage- is still a variable. I know full well that a single event doesn't show jack all. I've played with enough random systems to understand this (not as well as several other esteemed posters here, but enough).
Quote:
It takes a much, much more long term vision of this game, and a plan that is pre-disposed to handle virtually anything and everything that the casino can throw at it.
Unproven that you understand this.
Quote:If one can learn to protect their downside, then they're left with a plethora of upside.
Meaningless.
Quote:That's what I bring to the table, that's what I offer, and that's the ONLY TRUE PATH TO SUCCESS at this game.
Unproven there is any path to success.
Quote:(Sidenote: I'm off to the Borgata tonight and tomorrow....I'll be back with you guys on Saturday. Stay well....)
Why bother coming back? No-one here shows any sign of believing a word you say.
Quote: EvenBobGR8 is the driving instructor who never has you
leave the parking lot. He spends every day talking
about seat belts, and tire pressure, and accident
stats. You never make it to the actual highway
where he teaches you how to drive. Eventually
you give up and throw eggs at his house and
leave burning bags of dog doodoo on his porch.
Holy crap dude, you're full of metaphor today.
"The most interesting man in the world."
I like the one that has the quote, "It has never been 'his bad'."
If a person cannot grasp the math of baccarat then all the following will make sense to him.
Past results mean something.
Trends can be used.
Money management can help.
Bet selection is an art.
Skills can be utilized.
House edge can be overcome.
The player has an advantage
Progressions work.
Long term means nothing.
Until the math of baccarat is understood by the player then the above will be gospel to him, nothing you can say or explain will shake his beliefs.
Losses will be put down to loss of concentration or bad judgement, not the math.
Wins will credited to skill, not luck.
Many roulette players are just as delusional.
Quote: JeepsterThis whole gr8player shambles can be all boiled down to one simple failing.
If a person cannot grasp the math of baccarat then all the following will make sense to him.
Past results mean something.
Trends can be used.
Money management can help.
Bet selection is an art.
Skills can be utilized.
House edge can be overcome.
The player has an advantage
Progressions work.
Long term means nothing.
Until the math of baccarat is understood by the player then the above will be gospel to him, nothing you can say or explain will shake his beliefs.
Losses will be put down to loss of concentration or bad judgement, not the math.
Wins will credited to skill, not luck.
You summed this entire thread up perfectly with 1 posting. Great job!
Many roulette players are just as delusional.
Quote: JeepsterLosses will be put down to loss of concentration or bad judgement, not the math.
Wins will credited to skill, not luck...
This sounds like me reviewing my online poker play.
Gr8Player endeavors to convince us that he is able to use trends and bet selection to beat the game of Baccarat. Gr8Player maintains that there is an inherent House Edge working against him in the game of Baccarat, yet with these strategies, the House Edge can be overcome and it turns into a player edge.
In my opinion, Gr8Player evidently wants us to believe him, Gr8Player may or may not deny this fact, but why persist if you don't care whether or not you are convincing anyone?
1.) I suppose that is the first problem, let's say that I had actual mathematical proof (and it seems that Gr8 believes he has the equivalent) of a Video Poker game, just for example, that pays out 105% for a 5.00% Player Edge: Okay, so here is the casino that has this awesome bank of machines, here is the Optimal Strategy for this game, this is how you beat it. Sadly, however, nobody will listen to me. I'm not going to persist in reiterating my same point over and over again, come at it from different angles or do any of those things. It's simple, this is how you do it, these are the FACTS, if you don't want to use the facts, then too bad for you and I'm getting back to making money. I tried to help, but I'm not going to fall all over myself when you won't listen!
However, Gr8Player does not have this attitude. It's not enough for him, in my opinion, that he has tried to help us and wishes it for all of us. Gr8Player is unwilling to relent until we are, to a greater or lesser extent, convinced of the rightness of his approach.
2.) The second problem is that the information Gr8Player has provided, even if correct, is completely unhelpful. It would seem that there is a method to Gr8Player's madness, but it is a method that has never been described with specificity. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that there is some mathematically or logically valid reason that a player could consistently beat the game of Baccarat with trending and bet selection, in the absence of luck. If we make this assumption, and someone has such an ability to beat the game long-term, it is the equivalent of me saying that I know a Video Poker game that pays at 102%, mentioning the probabilities of hitting the big pays with Optimal Strategy, but never telling anyone what the Optimal Strategy is!!!
The main difference, in this case, is that the Optimal Strategy for a Video Poker game can generally be discerned, even if I don't spell it out to anyone. Simulations can be run on the game according to the Rules, ER's can be determined for every possible decision on every possible hand. The difference with Gr8Player's Baccarat trending and bet selection is that all simulations will fail to re-produce Gr8Player's results over many trials and over many runs. That's where the Math comes in, with the Video Poker game, it can be determined, "Yup, Mission146 is right, 102%!" The simulations will fail, with increasing likelihood given a greater number of trials and runs, and the Math will also not favor Gr8Player. The algebra is simple, you are betting x on Player, in total, you are betting y on Banker, in total and you are betting z on tie...if he bets tie...this is how much you are expected to lose betting those amounts.
In Gr8Player's Defense
3.) Gr8Player could simply be fairly lucky, and be experiencing Confirmation Bias.
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm
I have taken the worse of the primary two Baccarat bets, Player, and set the simulator with a bankroll of 10,000, betting 5 units per bet, wagering a total of $100,000 over 10,000 runs. The player experienced an overall gain 3.31% of the time. I did the same thing for Banker, and the player experienced a gain 5.40% of the time. It stands to reason that a flat-betting player, making 20,000 perfectly mixed bets, will experience a gain slightly over 4.00% of the time, if the numbers hold.
I wonder if Gr8Player has even made 20,000 bets lifetime, perhaps he has, I would have no idea.
I ran the simulation for 200,000 wagers, or $1,000,000, and not a single player game out ahead, 64.65% busted completely, and the average loss was just under $9,435, betting Banker. Finally, I ran it for 2,000 wagers, betting $10,000, and 30.04% of players came out ahead. 5,000 Wagers, $25,000, gives me 20.65% of all players experiencing a gain, on Banker.
Gr8Player may or may not have stated this before, so apologies if you have Gr8Player, but when you claim that Baccarat is beatable in the long run:
A.) At what point does the Baccarat player enter the long run? After how many wagers?
B.) Have you entered the long run?
C.) If you keep such detailed records, can you give a close approximation as to how many total wagers you have made in the game of Baccarat?
The more total wagers that have been made, the less believable Gr8Player's claims as to hit personal successes become. However, let's say he has mixed a total of 20,000 Banker or Player bets, given my guesstimate of 4.00% to be ahead, at that point, does he stand to reason that Gr8Player could be a 1 in 25 player? I think so, which would also explain why is he talking about it and the fervency of his belief in his system. Personally, if I am not a 1 in 25 Video Keno player (given my total bets v. my lifetime win), I know that I'm close. Except, I maintain that it is nothing but luck and my, "Strategy," of trading a bunch of small losses for a few slightly larger to moderately large wins has seen me yield a better-than-expected amount of decent wins given the amounts ventured.
Solution
I wouldn't mind putting the baby to bed, though. If Gr8Player wishes to educate us, then I would be happy to hand deal the equivalent of a Baccarat shoe with either six or eight decks, and Gr8Player could tell us where he would bet, what he would bet, and why? After that, if he's interested, we'll deal five more shoes...and it will take some time...only Gr8Player has to make, "Bets," without knowing the results of the hands. I won't even know them, I'll lock the decks of cards up when the game is not in progress. It will take a while, and no actual money will be on the line, but education through demonstration is one of the most effective forms education can take...so this will be Gr8Player's opportunity to educate us, since that is what he seems to want.
Quote: MrVTo summarize: "Quit being a tease. It's time now to put up or shut up."
+1
